JPMorgan says that the United States economy is probably headed for a recession as the economic “engines are about to turn off.” The megabank also said that the economy is “already past the point of no return.”
“The Fed is facing a difficult task on Wednesday, but it is likely already past the point of no return,” some strategists said, according to a report by Fortune. “A soft landing now looks unlikely, with the airplane in a tailspin (lack of market confidence) and engines about to turn off (bank lending).”
“Even if central bankers successfully contain the contagion, credit conditions look set to tighten more rapidly because of pressure from both markets and regulators,” they added.
These comments come as the Federal Reserve is set to make a key decision on whether to continue to raise interest rates later today. The strategists that commented said that either way, it looks like the U.S. is heading into a recession.
However, the JPMorgan Chase analysts suggested that the current situation could represent a potential “Minsky moment,” referring to the theory that extended bull markets result in major collapses, according to a report by The Hill.
The banking crisis of the past week has indeed increased nervousness. As Market Watch reported, the Bank of America’s March survey of global fund managers, out Tuesday, revealed that a “systemic credit event” is now seen as the biggest threat to markets. Stresses in U.S. shadow banking and corporate debt and developed-market real estate could trigger such an event, said strategists.
Kolanovic, the bank’s chief global markets strategist, said the outbreak of stress in the banking sector will likely affect central banks for some time, as it has shifted the risks in their outlooks. A case in point, he said, was the European Central Bank, which, in addition to raising its key interest rate by 50 basis points, dropped its forward guidance and announced a higher core-inflation forecast last week. –Market Watch
Overall, now is not the time to take chances, JPMorgan analysts said. “We stay cautious on risk assets which price in too little recession risk, while the banking crisis raises the prospect of a recession this year as credit is restricted,” Marko Kolanovic, the bank’s chief global markets strategist and the team said, adding that equity and credit volatility seems “complacent compared to unprecedented rate volatility.”
It’s time to consider the possibility of systemic economic failure and all-out collapse. Get those last-minute preps in place just in case.