A scientist at Harvard University is predicting the coronavirus, which originated in Wuhan, China, will infect 70% of humanity. Marc Lipsitch is predicting the coronavirus “will ultimately not be containable” and, within a year, will infect somewhere between 40 and 70 percent of humanity.
The Atlantic reported that a vaccine is still years away, so it’ll also be useless in stopping the spread of the coronavirus. He also says that we shouldn’t be alarmed by these numbers because most of those infected won’t have severe illnesses or even show symptoms at all, which is already the case for many people who have tested positive for the virus. This will likely hold true unless the virus mutates into a more deadly and severe form.
This seems to go without saying, that you still don’t want to get this coronavirus. Much like the flu, it isn’t likely to kill you, but it definitely could.
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But the fact that most people don’t show any symptoms of the virus is why Lipsitch feels like this is simply not containable. There’s also an emerging consensus that the outbreak will eventually morph into a new seasonal disease, which, per The Atlantic, could one day turn “cold and flu season” into “cold and flu and COVID-19 season.”
While scientists everywhere try to get the upper hand when it comes to fighting this outbreak, it’s proven difficult. Scientists do say that the coronavirus is not expected to mutate quickly, and if it does, it probably won’t become more deadly. Viruses, like parasites, want to survive, and killing everyone they infect is not the way to go about surviving.
The WHO said on Monday that the COVID-19 outbreak was not out of control globally and does not have a large-scale death toll, so it was “too early” to speak of a pandemic, according to a report by Reuters.
Can’t help but think of the song by Bush, Little Things. ” It’s the little things that kill. “
Like the Patriot Act which was born out of 911, travel control and monitoring will result from this and it will remain post crisis ostensibly for our own good. The end result is a civilian population controlled by fear.
Touching other humans or the things they have touched is the number one path to spread Coronavirus.
Local customs can be hard to break. I understand Iran’s huge epidemic is most likely because every male, who passed puberty in the country, who is not really sick is required to attend Friday prayers at their mosque. Remember Mosque is not just religious, governmental, like hanging out with the mayor and town council. Understand also that Iranians aren’t big on soap and water.
After services there is a lot of mingling, hand shaking and kissing of cheeks. Everyone is expected to show respect for imams, elders, political leaders etc. Turns out the Iranian city with the biggest epidemic is also their spiritual center, more coincidence, the chief Imam is infected, and has been kissing and being kissed by hundreds of people, including religious representatives from other cities and mosques each of whom has been kissing hundreds of others, on and on.
Under the Islamic system of mosques and required close quartered prayer, customary socializing afterword, all followed by the obligatory public anti-American and anti-Israel demonstrations in the streets, these people are going to see a spread rate even bigger than the Diamond Princess Cruise Ship.
In Indonesia and several other Asian nations, they publicly ridicule the West for our views on soap and water, and personal hygiene, and I’m pretty sure from my reading that Coronavirus is transmitted primarily by fecal matter i.e. poop.
Out of six billion in the world, probably less than a billion have access to modern save toilet facilities and soap and water. Out of that billion a percent because of religion or custom will walk right past that sink with soap and water, and spread their fecal mater everywhere.
Stop shaking hands, stop touching other people, especially strangers. Wash hands at every opportunity. Carry Kleenex, or sounds like a good job for junk mail they send to your home, to open doors with then discard. Have a disinfecting spray in your car to spray the bottoms of shoes, and Clorox wipes to clean your car controls. Keep a pure silver coin in your pocket to push elevator buttons and the like with. Consider every public object you touch to be contaminated. Take precautions and you might live.
The idea that this disease may be here to stay is terrifying, because it is said, if you get repeat cases, they become more and more deadly.
Plan twice, prep once
Excellent informative useful posting.
Really good points! It is culture and cultural practices that will make this virus go crazy.
Cultures where there is poor hygiene yet many social obligations to congregate with many others (Islam being the worst for this because of the 5 times a day prayer obligation) will see an explosion in infections.
High infection transmission groups:
1) Chinese: Chinese restaurants are notoriously filthy (ever been in one of their kitchens?) and their cities are the most toxic and polluted on the planet.
2) Muslims: Islam’s group gathering obligations and the many cultural restrictions that prevent rational discussions of hygiene, sex etc. means the virus will go wild amongst Muslims. In Western countries, Muslims are the poorest group and engage in the filthiest economic practices (Uber drivers peeing in bottles etc.).
3) Africans: Africa is notoriously filthy and people do things like crap in plastic bags and throw them in the street. They also live in the poorest conditions in the West and live in the filthiest neighbourhoods.
These three groups are the ‘super spreaders’. All three groups have increased their populations in the West many fold in the past 20 years. Even more so in just the past 5 years with the refugee crisis. While politicians will not want to do it, mass deportations are required to protect the population. And the practice of quietly bringing in refugees at night by plane must stop.
This much we do know. The virus is by all definitions a ‘Black Swan Event’. It is much more than simply a medical event.
I wouldn’t use the work ‘infect’ but rather ‘affect’.