In his latest issue of the Trends Journal (Winter 2010), trend forecaster Gerald Celente discusses the economic ramifications of a global commercial real estate meltdown, sovereign defaults and government rescue programs.
“There is no recovery. The only real economic question facing the world is: Will the economic bottom fall out all at once or will it be a chain reaction? The guillotine, or death by a thousand cuts?
The Trends Research Institute cannot predict what undreamed-of schemes central banks and governments will dream up this time to bail out the toobig-to-fail financial fraudsters, and artificially prop up sagging economies, thereby taking on more debt.
What we can predict is that the commercial real estate collapse, which we forecast for 2009, will intensify in 2010. Though briefly forestalled by government intervention (in the US, TARP, TALF, American Recovery and Reinvestment Act, etc.), the Dubai World debacle is a resounding signal that commercial is crashing. Neither â€œcontainedâ€ nor isolated, as alleged, the world is awash in Dubai World clones: overbuilt developments with no possibility of renting and therefore no possibility of paying off highly-leveraged loans. ($3.1 trillion of debt finances the estimated $6.5 trillion of commercial real estate in the US alone.)
When commercial real estate collapses, the props will be pulled out from under the banks holding the loans. Absent governments coming to the rescue with more prop trillions, the shock from the free-falling commercial sector will irreparably damage the equity markets and reverse modest gains made possible by central bank interventions.”
With the trillions of dollars at their disposal the powers that be could continue to kick the can down the road for a while longer, so a prolonged deep depression is not out of the question. In fact, we believe that this depression will last for at least the rest of this decade, if not longer, so we’re going to feel the pain regardless.
A collapse unlike any that has been seen in modern times is coming our way, and we’re not just talking about the stock market here. This being the case, it is irrelevant whether it happens this year, or in 2012, or 2015. Prepare for both of the possible collapse scenarios now by securing your wealth, protecting your family, and adapting your mind set for what’s to come.
If past behavior is any indication of future action, I believe Obama will pass another bailout should the markets take a dive later this year.Â If Bernanke gets reappointed, and him being a “disciple” of the Great Depression, I do not expect them to EVER allow a deflationary death spiral to occur on their watch.Â I therefore expect the exact opposite to occur, hyperinflationary depression. Still think we are at least 1 year away from this however, maybe 2. My only question is how much longer can we all hang by our fingernails.
it would seem prepping for survival is essintial. water, food, guns/ammo are the soup de jour. suburbia seems doomed. get some land and grow your own. seems that way to me. don’t expect any govt help. we are on our own. support yourself and family.
It appears to me that the best time ever to invest was in the middle of the depression when pe ratios were at their lowest in history. I’m looking forward to the sequel. Buying guns and ammo is nuts. Buy stocks when the pe ratio is in single digits. Wealth will protect you and yours from a lot more threats than investment in guns
Were you’re parents morons or did you develop that on your own?
I am not fearful of any depression or recession. Hyperinflation, deflation, no problem, I’ll happily take either and win through. However, what I do fear is my government, pretending to help, but plundering my accumulated savings to bail out their corrupt big business cronies, and their feckless unprepared voters.
I checked the Michigan CAFR recently and discovered the Public School Employees Retirement System had lost $14 billion in investments. These type of losses are probably to be found in all public pensions in all states.
I was a breast fed baby during the post WWII recession. Â why breast fed? Â because we were too poor to afford “baby formula” Â only the rich fed their babies that. Â likewise, I lived thru the post Vietnam recession as well. Â IMHO, and only IMHO, what looms ahead will make both of those periods of time look like an English Garden Tea Party. Â I keep ALL options open. Â I also keep in mind that never in history have a few (relatively speaking) individuals/groups had so much surveillance power, as well as mass media propaganda power in equal amounts. Â we’re all in for the “ride of our lives” and I don’t think ANYONE is an expert for what’s up dead ahead, just over the horizon. Â FT
When the collapse hits. My wife and I are going to buy land and grow our food there. We will not buy anything we don’t need to survive. We may live a paupers, but at least we will be alive. I can hunt and fish, grow gardens, build anything, fix anything. I can do blacksmithing if I have to. Countryboy can survive.
I do not here much talk about Canada. I was wondering if that is a good place to live if the dam breaks here? Also, not much about their currency. It seems like their dollar may hold up better then ours but not sure? If anyone has thoughts on that leave a comment.