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    Category: Howard Katz

    Mac Slavo
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    The change of the old order has important implications for the financial markets in general and for the gold market in particular for the simple reason that politics affects economics.

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    Today we stand on the threshold of one of the great moves in financial history. The signal comes as what is called a pullback to support. It will be my goal in this article to convey to you the immense power of such a formation.


    Gold bugs have been sad for the past few weeks as gold has tumbled from above $1200/oz. Cheer up gold bugs.


    Right now the financial markets are telling us a story which is so incredible, so fantastic and filled with such opportunities for profit that I am in awe. I can only remember two comparable opportunities in my lifetime, the bottom in gold at $35/oz. in the summer of 1970 and the bottom in stocks in the summer of 1982 at 780 DJI.


    Truth is the most valuable commodity in the universe, even more valuable than gold. Just as we had a short squeeze in gold after Thanksgiving, so we have had a short squeeze in truth over the past year. Never have the lies been so thick and fast. All those who were short of truth (such as Paul Krugman) were run in and forced to cover, and they took horrific losses. Now they will hide the truth and pretend that they are making money.

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    Can’t anybody see this? Economic goods fluctuate in value. Sometimes they get too low in value, and sometimes they get too high in value. It is a challenge to the good speculator to correctly determine whether the particular good in which he is interested is too low or too high. Therefore, he cannot be either a stock bug or a gold bug all the time.


    On Oct. 12, 2009, Paul Krugman, columnist for the New York Times did his column attacking the gold standard and defending the bankers privilege to create money. This was such a perfect exposition of the lies of our age that it bares closer examination. Because the more one digs into this issue the more things are not as they seem.


    The gold stocks caught on fire over the past fortnight. They have lagged behind the metal in relative strength, but, since they are more volatile than the metal, bigger profits are the result. For example, gold is well above its early September levels, but the XAU and the HUI have only broken above their corresponding levels just last week.

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    Is it too late to become a gold bug? Are you one of those who did not listen to the one-handed economist? Worse, did you fly to “safety” in the U.S. dollar? Are you thinking, “Is it too late to buy?”


    One thing has been bothering many gold bugs. In 1933, the U.S. Government confiscated the people’s gold. The Government even went into safety deposit boxes (in private banks) and took the gold out of them. This was done once. Perhaps it could be done again.

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    Gold is now safely above the $1,000 mark, and there are two aspects to this, one good, one bad. The good aspect is that $1,000 is now a floor (whereas from March 2008 to Sept. 2009 it acted as a ceiling). The bad aspect is that we are now vulnerable t to a pull back to $1,000., and we need to be on guard for this possibility.


    This question underlines one important fact of the markets. Playing any market does not consist of just one or two decisions. It consists of a new decision every day.

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    To be completely honest, it is not me who is the greatest. Of course, it is Mohammed Ali who is the greatest. And I may not even be the greatest economist. That honor has to be shared with those few gold bugs who foresaw the break above $1,000 and who kept their subscribers long gold and gold stocks.


    Today I want to use the idea of unemployment to explain many of the hopelessly confused ideas of modern economics. We stand near the beginning of a new century, and it is my hope that the ideas of the 21st will not repeat the terrible tragedies of the 20th.


    All the scaredy-cats are trembling in their shoes this week as gold dipped below the $1,000 level. Foolish people. Can’t they see that the U.S. dollar is in free fall?


    Well, here we are with the price of gold above $1,000. Since this is the day so many thought would never come, it is time for reflection. I have lived my life in a society in which most of the “experts” have been wrong over and over.

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    A picture is indeed worth a thousand words. And the picture above is worth a lot more than that – if you understand it and know how to interpret it. Sadly, there are many people who do not understand this important technique.

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    With gold ready to break above $1,000, we have an interesting opportunity to look into the minds of competing traders in the markets and find out what they are thinking. After all, for every speculator who makes money in the financial markets someone else must lose.

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    The markets can be a challenge, but this appears to be a period when they are easy to predict. Both the stock and the commodity markets are in a bullish period, recovering from their decline of late 2008. The point you have to understand is that the stock market is in a bullish major trend but a bearish grand cycle trend. The commodity markets are in a bullish major trend and a bullish grand cycle trend. Here is the difference.

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    Listen carefully, dear gold bug. You are living in a world which is insane. All around you are the incredibly stupid people who, in the past, believed that the earth was flat and that one could fly by standing on a magic carpet. From every source of opinion comes the 21 st century version of those beliefs.

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    The people who make money in the markets are the people who latch onto a giant move, be it Polaroid in the ‘50s and ‘60s, gold in the ‘70s or Yahoo in the late ‘90s. This is not hard to do. Compared to predicting the short term it is easy. The problem is that most people live in the moment. Our emotions pull us in and get us excited about little moves. We lose the big picture, and this leads us to make the wrong decision.

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    On Monday, Aug. 3, 2009, the U.S. dollar index broke down to 77½, thus completing a double top (Nov. ’08 and March ’09). This was the major economic event of 2009 and predicts a further decline in the index to 68, which will be an all-time low.


    And here, in early August 2009, the world is once again perched on a knife-edge. Or, perhaps a better analogy would be that it stands at a fork in the road. Which way shall we travel, it asks?

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    It is, I believe, a Chinese expression, “May you live in interesting times.” Well, lucky us. We most certainly do live in interesting times.

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    Alas, poor gold bug. Things are better than a week ago – but not much. And here you sit, with gold about to break above $1000 and make you rich. Yet you are torn with fear and doubt. When you look back at this period, you will think, “Why was I so scared? I made a beautiful play. I beat the stuffings out of all my friends. Why did I have such doubts?”

    Mac Slavo
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    Howard Katz, no stranger to economic crisis, suggests that we are going to the moon with gold.

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