In recent weeks, as predicted by Gerald Celente, we’ve heard the mainstream media talk about the “jobless recovery” in our economy. Now, we have even better news coming from the Federal Reserve as outlined by Karl Denninger in The Government’s Effort Has Failed:
To say that these figures are ugly would be an understatement.Â In fact, there is simply no way you can spin this – while this contraction in credit has to happen it has horrifying implications if our Washington policymakers don’t get on the stick and deal with the underlying issues here and now instead of pretending that everything is ok or worse, try to “borrow our way to prosperity.”
Let’s start with the “Full Monte”; this is the “de-noised” version of The Fed’s “annualized” rate of change chart (click for a larger version of any of these):
source: The Market Ticker
The important point is that we have never been here before in the post-Depression era.Â Any and all claims that “The Consumer has reached a bottom”, or “The Recession is over” (based on July data) or any such is pure nonsense.Â There is not only no sign of a bottom there is no change in the second derivative – that is, the rate of change continues to be essentially straight down!
It seems that, not only are we going to have a recovery with continued job losses into 2010, but the collapse in consumerÂ credit will also contribute! It’s a spendingless recovery! This is the 21st century, afterall, it’s different this time!