‘Recovery Does Not Feel Real’

by | Aug 23, 2010 | Headline News | 28 comments

Do you LOVE America?


    We probably don’t have to point this out to our readers, but just in case you missed it, we’re not really in a recovery and we never were.

    The article below, from the NY Times, is written in the context of stock market investors, but is still relevant in terms of overall sentiment about the economy:

    “At this stage in the economic cycle, $10 to $20 billion would normally be flowing into domestic equity funds” rather than the billions that are flowing out, said Brian K. Reid, chief economist of the investment institute. He added, “This is very unusual.”

    The notion that stocks tend to be safe and profitable investments over time seems to have been dented in much the same way that a decline in home values and in job stability the last few years has altered Americans’ sense of financial security.

    It may take many years before it is clear whether this becomes a long-term shift in psychology. After technology and dot-com shares crashed in the early 2000s, for example, investors were quick to re-enter the stock market. Yet bigger economic calamities like the Great Depression affected people’s attitudes toward money for decades.

    For now, though, mixed economic data is presenting a picture of an economy that is recovering feebly from recession.

    “For a lot of ordinary people, the economic recovery does not feel real,” said Loren Fox, a senior analyst at Strategic Insight, a New York research and data firm. “People are not going to rush toward the stock market on a sustained basis until they feel more confident of employment growth and the sustainability of the economic recovery.”

    One investor who has restructured his portfolio is Gary Olsen, 51, from Dallas. Over the past four years, he has adjusted the proportion of his investments from 65 percent equities and 35 percent bonds so that the $1.1 million he has invested is now evenly balanced.

    He had worked as a portfolio liquidity manager for the local Federal Home Loan Bank and retired four years ago.

    “Like everyone, I lost” during the recent market declines, he said. “I needed to have a more conservative allocation.”

    First, we’ll note that although Mr. Olsen from Dallas believes he has a diversified portfolio of stocks and bonds, he is essentially waiting to be financially executed.

    In What about the gold? we pointed out that there is a distinct possibility that both, stocks and bonds, will be destroyed in the coming financial Armageddon. We suspect that stocks will go first in either a deflationary stock market crash akin to the 1930’s, or, a collapse in real value during a hyperinflationary meltdown (at the same time as bonds). In either case, his stocks will be severely hit.

    If he’s holding bonds, he can expect to be wiped out when the US dollar starts getting hammered at some point in the next few years. Yields on the bonds are going to go ballistic, and anyone who is buying now, or bought in the last 24 months, is going to see their bond values decimated or worse. Whether you’re holding Treasury Bonds, Corporate Bonds or municipal bonds, it’s going to get ugly.

    It is possible that Mr. Olsen does have some gold stock holdings, but if he took his advice from Gary Schilling, it’s doubtful. Unless he’s holding some commodities in his portfolio, we suspect Mr. Olsen and many like him are going to have a very tough retirement living off of ever-dwindling social security checks.

    Second, the reason that the recovery does not feel real for most people is because there is no recovery for real Americans. Sure, the bankers,politicians and mainstream media talking headaches might say we’re in a recovery, but that’s because they haven’t yet lost their jobs, homes and way of life. In the real world, people are hurting by the millions.

    We suggest, contrary to the opinion of the New York Times, that the “mixed economic data” is not presenting a picture of a feeble recovery, but rather, a recession that has turned into a depression. It’s a recovery that never was.

    For most, it will be too late when they finally realize that they’ve been bamboozled by elite scumbags and that The United States is Collapsing.


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      1. Thanks for all these good stories mac. We need to be force fed the truth daily I believe or else there is a danger of falling back asleep, like all those that are losing their homes, and jobs, and families, because they let themselves get force fed the lies.

        Keep up the good work mate.

      2. So I’m posting this at sites I frequent as I feel it is about time to shift into a yet a further, more protected, financial position
        (things such as the meltdown of the US, end of the USD as reserve currency, the reneging of social security and annexation of 401ks …tend to do that).


        So there’s a point beyond which someone doesn’t feel comfortable in allocating to precious metals (whether it’s 10% …. or 90% of total wealth doesn’t matter ….. as that’s a subjective, individual matter).
        So what options does that (realistically) leave one? OK, one needs some ready cash…even if they are nervous about holding USD.
        Beyond PM’s and ready cash….What are other, GOOD options?
        ETF’s? Canadian, Aussie dollars? Swiss?
        High dividend, select blue chip stock
        Gasp…(hold your nose) …treasuries?
        Come on…don’t be shy. Let’s hear your opinions.
        Just back it up with a convincing, lucid argument.

      3. Personally I don’t understand why anyone in there right mind would purchase any type of paper investment at this point in the game.  The stock market is rigged and the FEW stocks worth owning are too expensive for the average investor.  All the rage last week was GM’s official filing for IPO… pfffff!!  NO THANK YOU… you can have it.  I’m sticking with only physical pm’s as any type of investment.  Right now I’m focusing on pre-1965 dimes, quarters and half dollars… 1965-1970 half dollars have 40% silver content so they still have value too… but not as much as pre-1965.  I’m also hoarding pre-1982 pennies since any pennies minted after 1982 are zinc with copper flashing.  The only coin still made of it’s orginal metal content is the nickel which is 75% copper/25% nickel…  75/25 cupronickel composition.  It cost’s the government more to create a nickel than the face value of a nickel is worth so you can bet it’s only a matter of time until the gov’t will change the metal contents of nickels too… just like they did with pennies, dimes, quarters and half dollars.  Another reason I’m focusing on pre-1965 dimes, quarters and half dollars is that the spot on a ounce of junk coins is less than the spot price on an ounce of a silver coin.  So I’ll keep sifting through my pennies while stocking up on nickels… pre-1983 pennies are actually worth $.02 and nickels are valued at $.07 in metal content.  Here’s a great tid bit of info on nickels by James Wesley Rowles… http://www.survivalblog.com/nickels.html  After reading this article last week I immediately started rolling all of my nickels for safe keeping. 

        Paper is paper childrens… invest in pm’s and commodities.  Stay away from gold and silver ETF’s… JP Morgan has been shorting the hell out of them to keep silver prices down… I’m putting a minimum of $40.00 a month into junk coins for now and after the new year I’m going to put additional funding into 1/10 oz gold coins and 1 oz silver coins as well.  That’s aside from the food and commodity reserves I continue build up…;)

      4. Yep. I’ve been saying it all along. This is a media recovery only. The general economy isn’t recovering at all.

        Its no surprise. Its not that the economy is really that “bad” its that the economic paradigm has shifted. The old economy that supported masses of people just won’t do it anymore. It was all done with the principal of expanding debt. That expansion has ruptured and is now deflating.

        Even government will start suffering soon. The mass psychology has shifted to a more conservative lifestyle and financial paradigm of lets slaverty, er, uh, debt, more savings. People are living more and spending less.

        Changes are always painful and I hate to see the people that have lost so much. But, in a changing economy, it is always the middle class that gets hurt. Its time to realize that most of the jobs that were had are gone forever. You cannot repair what was totally destroyed. Something new has to be built. We are in a time when people are having trouble releasing their grasp on ideas that won’t work anymore.

      5. All of this is made worse by a government whose only interest is ensuring it survives.   Even if it means the destruction of it’s own citizens. 

        The federal government and Barack Obama are blood sucking parasites living off taxpaying citizens.   Their goal is to draw as much blood as possible until the middle class is so weakened it cannot resist the predators’ legislated theft.   The mass media is a social tool being used by the U.S. government to keep the citizens as docile as possible until the wealth of the middle class is fully drained from the system. 

        Get out of your 401K plans now.  It is better to lose 30%  taxation up front………….. than for your dollar denominated plans to be decimated to a value of zero by coming U.S. currency devaluation.    

        You might have to even consider quitting your present job to get your 401K monies but it will be easier to find another job than replace 10, 20, 30 years of your accumulated retirement funds lost through the malfeasance of our corrupt and self serving government in Washington D.C.          

        You can be assured that the U.S. government, in order to ensure their own survival,  will eventually, by hidden legislation, seize all 401K plans, IRA’s, and pensions in a last ditch effort to save their own jobs, perks, and retirement plans.   

        Save yourself, save your family, and start considering getting out of anything denominated in U.S. dollars.   Do not let the U.S. government and the Federal reserve victimize you and your loved ones any further.

      6. Saver,
        How about…. A nice piece of land forested with hardwood, firewood and the means to make more, a nice tractor with rototiller and woodsplitter attachments.  Ammo and the means to reload as well as the supplies.  Junk silver.
        All good things to have when fuel skyrockets and the dollar goes to zero.

      7. Saver:  Your having a case of LAW OF DIMINISHING MARGINAL UTILITY.  You need to look this up and get some help real quick!  Go out & spend so you can save.  I’ve had it also, but got over it.

      8. But ….. BUT ….. BUT ….. what about all them there economic “green shoots” that are supposed to be springing up everywhere you look? Please don’t tell me that my wonderful government, President Barkie Obungle and the PTB have lied to me again???

        At almost 62 years old, I haven’t ever been unemployed for more than a month since I began working part time at age 13. This time, I have been unable to find work for a year now. I have a university degree, am fluent in English & Spanish, have excellent references and am a highly skilled Construction Superintendent with an excellent track record of previous success.

        My unemployment and savings will get us through until I am old enough to begin receiving early Social Security benefits; for as long as those last.

        My family and I consider ourselves to be more fortunate than most; we own our home free of a mortgage, don’t have any car payments, have a modest amount of savings and don’t have an outstanding balance on our 1 credit card.

        Mr. Gerald Celente of the Trends Institute says that we don’t have to worry about a ‘double-dip-recession’ since we never had any recovery from a 1st recession! Check out what else the man has to say for our prospests in the immediate future of our poor country.

        God Bless and good luck to you and your family. We’ll see you there in ‘barter-town’.

      9. Quietly waiting for bruno to sprinkle a little sunshine

      10. recently, there has been a wave of attention to the corruption stories regarding “Cash for Gold” schemes, ala Glen Beck’s price gauging friends.

        has anyone here ever sent in to have melted/recast, or recast their own metals?  i have a couple gaudy and very heavy Italian gold necklaces.  man, they’re really “stayin’ alive” kinda shit, but they’re 24k gold, super heavy… so why not press them into 1/10 pieces.

        also, my mother has lots of silver in ware and jewelry.  they’d like to change it into 1 oz pieces, with stamps of authenticity.

        but where do you do this, and feel confident insodoing?  we dont want to sell it, we just want to turn it into 1 oz pieces.

        any suggestions from experience?  thank you!

      11. egore
        August 23rd, 2010 at 6:32 am
        How about…. A nice piece of land forested with hardwood, firewood and the means to make more, a nice tractor with rototiller and woodsplitter attachments.  Ammo and the means to reload as well as the supplies.  Junk silver.
        All good things to have when fuel skyrockets and the dollar goes to zero……

        Egor,the problem ism the Lie that many still believe that there home and teir property is really owned by them .The Truth is we just temporarily live there on it or in it .Because of our limited lifespans , we really don’t own much of anything for long. But also the fact is that You have to pay Taxes on your Home and Property every year , so why is it if you own it you must continue to pay Taxes -Year after  year until death .  If you don’t pay the taxes, You will not own your property or home for long  because they will take it .Then they put Laws on your Land, that you can’t build this, or install this kind of septic system or level this hill on your land because it has a small seasonal creek nearby and all the other regualtions they throw on you .They can even Legally take it the land awy from useing imminent Domain  or because of an Easement needed to get to power poles  or access to roads .

      12. Comments…..Barter town is starting – we have a Farmer’s Market the fee for a table to sale is a five buck value item in lieu of dollars.

        NetRanger, completly agree with you.  I’d add this paradigm was manipulated and was not by accident, but intentional design. Power and greed – legislation and treaties allowing our raw materials, manufacturing and telecommunications jobs to go out country without economy safe guards was not a oops! The recovery is not real and we are in a depression.  Globally, markets and economies are collapsed, with the power elite having pulled off the largest heist and fleecing.  Yet, they are not done. There are still those 401k accounts, all that gold and silver folks have been buying for a rainy day, real estate including public lands and crops to countries experiencing famine.

        Like the frog in the pot of cold water, the heat slowly gets turned up and before he realizes it, he is cooked.  The citizens are in that pot. The power elite have changed the rules, reports and graphs.  What ever it takes to keep this bait and switch ponzi scheme going.  They even tell you they are doing it. Unemployment at 9.5%? Do you really believe that?  The elite compare that percentage to the Great Depression’s highest number of 23.6%.  It’s a apple and orange comparison to psychologically make us believe things aren’t so bad.  In truth, apples to apples the current numbers are 21.6% unemployment.  Depression numbers.  And we accept this crap while the elite, the self anointed experts and financial advisors ponzi us. It is the same with banking, housing, stocks and precious metals. No wonder the elite think we are sheeple and stupid, allowing them to continue their fleecing, as we don’t call them to heel and demand true accounting in plain English, so they continue to turn up the heat, just a tad bit more.

      14. Cynical Optimist:  Ammo boxes hold nickels & others very well.  Coinflation.com has melt value every day.  Every time I go to bank I buy $10 worth.  Bank tellers always wonder but don’t ask.  Nickels will go away faster than the junk silver when I had a paper route.  New papers were a nickel then.  Don Stott’s previous articles are interesting reads.

      15. Confidence in fiat currency is what gives it value. And a growing number of people around the world are losing confidence in the U.S. Dollar.

        Search,,,,When Money Dies : The Nightmare of the Weimer Collapse on pdf,,,. Chapter 5 reveals some amazing parrallels between Germany’s spiral into hyperinflation after WW I and where the U.S. is currently.

        Also search,,,glenn beck worse case scenarios on youtube,,, which cover topics on what to expect if an economic collapse occurred.Gerald Celente doesn’t hold back in this one !

        The media reported last year on how many people were pulling large sums of cash out of their investment funds, to maintain their standard of living after losing their jobs.
        Now, the media is reporting on that same event occurring this year. But the reason is fear of a market crash and lack of consumer confidence in economic recovery.
        More and more people are waking up every day to the possiblity that things WILL get worse.And when that concern turns into FEAR, the snowball effect could become unstoppable.Gear up folks. And continue working on that one year food supply.That could become your most valuable asset.

        I’d rather prepare and look like a fool, than not prepare and look like a starving fool.

      16. Comments…..There is no recovery and there will be no recovery for many years to come.  We have in many cases permanent unemployment especially in the 50+ year old group.  The consumer no longer trusts anyone, the government has sold us out–or, we did it to ourselves for buying cheap Chinese goods.  All the bailouts and the increased taxes of Americans is bringing this country down faster than anyone ever anticipated.  It will be very difficult for the economy to recover because there is lack of confidence in almost everything–government mainly both local and federal.

        People will have to learn to do for themselves and not wait for the government to step in and help them. They cannot possibly take care of everyone, it is not sustainable.

        Things are so bad, that people are opening up restaurants in their homes!  And having perpetual garage sales just to make ends meet.  People are doing just to get by.  Check it out:

      17. The “recovery” doesn’t “feel real” because it’s NOT REAL!  There are no major construction job starts in the Seattle area for the rest of this year, and all of next year.  That’s thousands and thousands of guys out of work.  I bet there are a lot of other cities in the same boat too.  When construction stops and there are little or no lines at your neighborhood Home Depot, you know that we are deep in the shit.

        @ Rouge2:  maybe your local rare coin shop could give you a price on the PM’s as scrap.  The only other way you might just get it melted into ingots would be finding a local jewelry maker.  They would have the necessary casting equipment.  I thought about having a set of the family silver melted down too, but decided against it.  The problem with melting it is that you won’t get a stamp that “everyone knows”.  Like on silver rounds for instance, everyone knows about Sunshine Minting Silver Eagles.  But your local jewelry guy isn’t Sunshine Minting.  So people may or may not believe his stamp.  At least in its current form, the family silver is stamped with marks that most people familiar with silver ware are used to.  Not the most convenient, but it IS bullion, just the way it is.  You could make a couple phone calls to jewelry and coin shops for better info too.

        Besides, if you keep it, you can set a real nice table when the SHTF and eat and party up on barter liquor.  No use eating canned beans off a plastic spoon when you can catch a salmon and eat it off a silver fork!

      18. @ rogue2

        In answer to your questions:

        1. Check with your local rock/jem shop or even your local community college. There are usually courses available and most are very inexpensive. It is investment casting using the lost wax process. My wife and I paid $25 each for a course a while back.

        1.  You will need to convert your gold and silver to cash first and then buy your ‘trash’ silver coins or gold or silver ’rounds’. In the coming financial breakdown nobody will be willing to accept anything where they don’t have a recognizable mint mark. Something that you fabricate yourself doesn’t qualify.

        2. Sterling Silver flatware is 92.5% pure silver. Rather than casting it into something else I would suggest leaving it as is as rather than melting it down. It currently should have a maker’s mark and be labeled as “sterling”. Likewise with your gold jewlery, it should be marked as 14k, 18k or whatever. The European marking format is different; 18k = .750.

        Hope this helps.

      19. MadMarkie, JonnyV–thank you both.  very interesting!

        i do have a friend who teaches “metals” and jewlrysmithing at a high school; she’s an expert in using silver in art.  she would be a start…

      20. @ rogue2

        Your best bet might be to work a trade with a local coin dealer. They might be willing to give you a better price for your PM if they are trading you their PM as a part of the bargan. The nice thing about ‘trash’ US minted silver coins and the gold & silver American Eagles is that folks recognize them for what they are. Most people don’t have any idea that sterling silver flatware is 92.5% pure silver. At over $1,200 an ounce for gold, the Chinese are starting to counterfeit the US Gold Eagle coins now.

        Trash (badly worn, no numismatic value) pre 1965 US minted silver coins, dimes, quarters and half dollars are of too small a value to make counterfeiting them worthwhile. People recognize them and will be willing to accept them at face value.

        You might also want to check with an outfit called
        http://www.replacements.com . They sell (and buy) individual pieces of china and sterling silver flatware for the ‘replacement market’. They may pay more than the melt value depending on the maker and scarcity of the pattern that you have.

        Trust me though, whoever you deal with is going to make a profit off of the transaction. But if you end up with something more recognizable and acceptable to the average ‘citizen’ you may end up coming out ahead on the deal.

         Also, you may want to check and make sure that your gold chains really are 24k; that’s really soft and not usually used for making jewlery.

        Good Luck.

      21. rogue2 – i did the same thing a few years ago with some older rings and a necklace that was like the one you describe.  I think it was worn by some disco type dude in the 70’s.  24k is usually not made into jewelry because of the softness.  I went to our local community college and paid to take a short class.  They let us, under supervision, melt down our stuff and I ended up making a couple gold “bars”.  I had a total of about 3 oz.  They look goofy but it was fun and its better than a bunch of jewelry. 

      22. you got it jeffery.

        Container ship charter rates are still climbing through the summer as ocean carriers compete for increasingly scarce tonnage to keep pace with surging cargo volume on key routes from Asia to North America and Europe.  Charter rates for ships that can carry 3,500 20-foot containers have more than tripled since the beginning of the year and are set to climb further as unexpectedly strong cargo demand is outstripping the supply of ships for hire and newly built vessels entering the market.
        Cargo volume on the Far East-U.S. trades grew 25.7 percent during the first three months of the new trans-Pacific contract season from May to July based on preliminary customs figures. Weekly capacity deployed on Far East-U.S. trades is already back to 2008 levels and is 12 percent above 2009 levels.

        Container ship prices also are surging as carriers and charter ship-owners place orders for new ships and step up purchases of second hand tonnage.”


      23. Global outplacement consultancy Challenger, Gray & Christmas reports that the U.S. job market is well on the road to recovery and is actually rebounding sooner and faster compared to the jobless recoveries that followed the previous two recessions (1990-1991 and 2001).
        1. At this point in the previous two recoveries – following the 1990-1991 and 2001 recessions – the job market was actually getting worse. Many people are so caught up looking at the weekly and monthly numbers, that they fail to look at the bigger trends, which indicate just how much the job market has improved over the last 12 months.
        2. Monthly job cuts have numbered fewer than 100,000 for 14 consecutive months, a streak that has not been achieved since 1999-2000.
        3. While the unemployment rate remains historically high and the decline is not occurring fast enough for most, it definitely appears to be heading in the right direction. If the economy were following the same pattern as the early 1990s recession or the 2001 recession, we would be facing another three to six months of rising unemployment.
        4. Job losses due to the recession turned to gains as of January 2010, with payrolls experiencing five consecutive months of net growth that saw more than one million new jobs added to the economy. The gains slowed in June and July as the government shed tens of thousands of temporary Census workers, resulting in overall total non-farm job losses of 352,000 over the two-month period. Despite those losses, payrolls have still seen net growth totaling 654,000 jobs so far this year, due in large part to steady job gains in the private sector. The private sector has had seven consecutive months of job gains, adding a net total of 630,000 new jobs to the economy since January 1.  While the payroll gains remain weak, they are occurring much sooner when compared to the 2001 recession, when it took 21 months before the economy began to add jobs on a consistent basis.


      24. U.S. commercial real estate prices posted their first quarterly gain in more than two years last quarter, data showed on Monday. After shedding about a third of their value between the 1Q of 2008 and 2010, average U.S. commercial property prices rose by 2.2% in the three months to end-June, as measured by the Investment Property Databank US Quarterly Property Index.

      25. Bruno;  put down the crack pipe dude.  Just put it down.  Put down that butane torch too.  Jesus Christ.

      26. what’s wrong  jonny?  you think your bugout bags are going to go to waste?

      27. Bruno, thanks for making me laugh!  

        Way to lighten up the mood.

      28. This fairytale economy isn’t going to end well with unicorns shitting skittles all over the place. 

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