This report was originally published by Michael Snyder at The Economic Collapse
In late 2018, the bad economic news just keeps rolling in. At a time when consumer confidence is absolutely soaring, the underlying economic numbers are clearly telling us that enormous problems are right around the corner. Of course this is usually what happens just before a major economic downturn. Most people in the general population feel like the party can go on for quite a while longer, but meanwhile the warning signs just keep becoming more and more obvious. I have been hearing from people that truly believe that the economy is “strong”, but if the U.S. economy really was in good shape would new vehicle sales be “collapsing”?…
According to the latest estimates released by Edmunds, new vehicle sales for September are expected to collapse both on a monthly basis and year-over-year basis. The company predicted that 1,392,434 new cars and trucks will be sold in the U.S. in September, which makes for a estimated seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 17 million. This will be a 5.4% decrease from last month and an 8.3% drop from September of last year.
Those are absolutely terrible numbers.
And this news comes after all of the major automakers had already revised earnings guidance lower. The following comes from Zero Hedge…
The drop in sales capped another rough month for the auto industry during which Detroit’s carmakers all revised their earnings guidance lower and Ford embarked on a five-year restructuring plan. Earlier this week, we reported that Ford’s CEO claimed that President Trump’s auto tariffs had cost the company $1 billion in profits.
Sadly, this may just be the very beginning of the auto industry’s troubles.
It is now being projected that if this trade war with China continues, U.S. automakers could see total sales fall “by 2 million vehicles per year”…
Retaliation by China to tariffs already in place have made some American auto exports uncompetitive, and could collapse US auto sales by 2 million vehicles per year, resulting in the loss of up to 715,000 American jobs and a devastating hit of as much as $62 billion to the US GDP.
As per NBC News, the Center for Automotive Research (CAR) warns that the auto industry could receive a devastating blow if Section 232 declares foreign-made cars and car parts a threat to national security.
Kristin Dziczek, a vice president and senior economist at CAR, said if Section 232 is enacted, it could trigger a “downward cycle” in the auto industry – not seen since the last great recession.
And needless to say, the thousands of companies that do business with those large automakers would also lose sales and jobs.
Once these downturns get rolling, the domino effect can be absolutely devastating.
On Thursday, we also learned that pending home sales “plunged in August”…
Pending home sales plunged in August, dropping 1.8% MoM (almost four times worse than expected) to its lowest since Oct 2014 (and fell 2.5% YoY) – the fourth month of annual declines in a row…
If the U.S. economy truly is “strong”, then why have we seen four monthly declines in a row?
And it isn’t just one part of the nation that is experiencing a downturn. According to Bloomberg, all four major regions of the country showed a decline…
As Bloomberg notes, the decline, which was broad-based across all four regions, shows that higher mortgage rates, rising prices and a shortage of affordable homes continue to squeeze buyers. Existing-home sales in August matched the lowest in more than two years, while revisions to new-home sales showed a slower market than thought, according to previously released figures.
Homes are not selling like they once were. There is a reason why one out of every four home sellers in America slashed their prices in August. Demand is way down, and that strongly indicates that an economic slowdown is here.
When it looks like the economy is headed for a major downturn, a lot of people go out and stock up on gold, and it turns out that is precisely what global central banks have been doing…
Central banks have emerged as some of the biggest buyers of gold this year, buying a total of 264 metric tons this year to reach the highest level in six years, according to analysts at Macquarie.
Of course the Federal Reserve and other central banks are trying to assure us that everything is going to be okay, but meanwhile their actions are telling us a different story.
Much of the world is already in the midst of a crippling economic crisis, and every indicator seems to be pointing to the fact that the U.S. is headed down the same path.
Even without any extenuating circumstances, the truth is that we are way overdue for a recession. But when you throw in political chaos, exploding debt levels, an emerging market currency crisis and a trade war between the two largest economies on the entire planet, you definitely have a recipe for a perfect storm.
If you do not believe that this trade war is a big deal, you should consider the words of former Reagan administration official David Stockman…
Folks, it’s not a “skirmish”. On the scale of trade warfare we are now at DEFCON 2.
At this very moment, the US is taxing $250 billion of Chinese imports or nearly half the total flow; and China is taxing $110 billion of its imports from the US or 85% of the flow.
And it’s soon going full monte. The Donald has repeatedly threatened to tariff the remaining $267 billion of Chinese imports if Beijing retaliates against his $200 billion, but, self-evidently, they already have.
The U.S. economy has found a way to muddle through for the past couple of years, and we should all hope that the economy can find a way to navigate through these current problems.
But the storm clouds are growing more ominous with each passing day, and at some point time will run out.
***
About the author: Michael Snyder is a nationally syndicated writer, media personality and political activist. He is publisher of The Most Important News and the author of four books including The Beginning Of The End and Living A Life That Really Matters.
The Last Days Warrior Summit is the premier online event of 2018 for Christians, Conservatives and Patriots. It is a premium-members only international event that will empower and equip you with the knowledge and tools that you need as global events begin to escalate dramatically. The speaker list includes Michael Snyder, Mike Adams, Dave Daubenmire, Ray Gano, Dr. Daniel Daves, Gary Kah, Justus Knight, Doug Krieger, Lyn Leahz, Laura Maxwell and many more. Full summit access will begin on October 25th, and if you would like to register for this unprecedented event you can do so right here.
America is not experiencing an economic slowdown.
AS usual, signals are mixed. The fact that consumer optimism is very high is a good sign, but the PTB always pull the plug when optimism is high to catch the pigs feeding at the trough, for the slaughter. It wouldn’t be any fun unless there was blood on the streets from investment bankers jumping from windows.
Consumer debt is still high and the auto market saturated,inventory is backing up as I told this community months ago as a sign that the business cycle was coming to a close; so yes sales will decline. American Trucks last a lot longer now, so those who want them and can afford them have already bought. Good used trucks can be found at reasonable prices.
Time to PROTECT your assets as best as possible. 401ks and IRA’s, even those managed by quality companies like Charles Schwab, are invested in the stock markets. when the stock markets tank, so will your 401k & IRA’s.
Move to safety that T-Bills provide, and take most of your savings and checking account cash out of the bank. With the new banking laws, you don’t own it anymore if you don’t hold it.
Ten dollar bills in number ten cans was good advice when Mushroom gave it before, it’s good advice now. 🙂
I read one of your comments and you said you have a website. What is the address? Interesting thing here is that I’ve been having weird feelings about keepin money in the bank so I went and took a sizable amt out. The teller got quite snarky about it. She wouldn’t even give me an envelope to put it in, so I went walking out with that stack not being able to conceal it. Now I ain’t been inside a bank in years but I guess I should’ve planned better and brought my own. I made what I call fire boxes for cash, a layer of cracker dust in the bottom of an ammo can, then cash, vacuum sealed placed in with more cracker dust poured around and on top. Hidden in a nice safe place.
Signals are dismal. I don’t know what world you live in. You must be retired.
I see a ton of comments here got the mod stick. why? was a decent conversation..?
jeez.
What planet do you live in?
No.. Not a slowdown, but a shutdown. Soon enough I’d say. Too soon.
Maybe I am just a simpleton, but a “cheap affordable” vehicle goes for 20K or so nowadays. A top of the line pickup truck can easily surpass 60K. Don’t imagine that might be a contributing factor……..
These large corporations refuse to alter pricing of product, as it will decrease profit….so, cut jobs to preserve the bottom line. Our economy has spiraled out of control.
True. I’ve had my 4×4 a long time and instead of buying a new one, I’ve put money in a lift kit, winch, new paint, great looking wheels and big mud tires, new shocks. I’ve also had the original engine modified to suit me and it will scream. I’d put it up against a brand new one any day and outdo it off road without a doubt. Plus it looks better than a new one. I’m not in debt as I’ve paid as I’ve went. I’ve also added level 3 plates in certain places. Call me crazy!
A repairman told me to buy an old Jeep Cherokee and not to get one of the new models.
If you buy a used vehicle, like a Cherokee, for example, make sure that the owner took the Jeep in; in response to RECALLS. Seems to me the Cherokee had some. 🙁
My other half had to have a new jeep. I hate it. (but it drives nice) It goes crazy sometimes on the electronics. I don’t know which to believe, the needle gauge or electronic gauge. One minute it says you have 100 miles of gas,the next it says 50, then it doesn’t read any. That’s just one of the problems.Top is a hard top and it leaks like a seive. One place is in the inside lights. Then when you turn the corner, it pisses on the person in the back seat. We haven’t even had the top off yet.
They went so tight on the carpet that the edges show, unless you keep tucking it in. Wonder if it was made in China..
Guess I need to tuck and glue.
He had a fall down crying baby fit till I gave in. Geeze.
Paid 54 grand for it. That’s almost 700 a month I didn’t want to pay. I hate car payments, especially on one that keeps having problems.
Call me practical. I prefer a 74 and older vehicle, one I can work on. Plus paid off.
Good advice gal.
Be sure that older Cherokee has the straight six 4.0L engine, those are Damn near bulletproof. I own two, one has 208K the other 238K. Both run great.
I have a 20 year old Ford Ranger 4×4 as my prospecting truck. It fits the Jeep Trails quite nicely.
Two roads diverged in a desert wash, and I, sorry that I could not have taken both; I took the one less travelled by, and that has made all the difference.
With apologies to Robert Frost. 🙂
People try to buy my ranger off me. No way it’s not for sale had it for 13 years bought brand new. I won’t sell it. It’s going to the grave with me. Your right it fits the trails great. As it sits stock it can ford 2 ft deep water. Been 7 years without a car payment not running back to one either. it runs like a raped ape. 96k on the clock still has a lot of life in it.
Menzo, are we related? [LOL] I’ve always bought older vehicles for cash from private owners because it was and still is all I can afford. To me, a cheap affordable vehicle is $2000-$7000 these days. I’ve been saving up to buy an old truck since last winter and almost have enough to go get one. I wish I could avoid craigslist because of all the scams on there but I don’t have a better option available to me.
My husband and I always have a ‘junker’ as we call it.
We get our money’s worth from what we buy. We just ride through country roads/highways and look at what’s in the yard with for sale signs.
Usually get good cars/trucks from older granny or grandpa.
JayJay, I’ve bought from elderly people twice in my life and made those vehicles last as long as I could. Those are better than you can get from any used car lot. A growing number of people nowadays think you’re a drug dealer if you carry a huge amount of cash going to buy a car. To them it’s “normal” to buy from a dealer and get it financed. If you’re buying from anyone for cash they see that as “controversial”. They don’t stop to think that NOT everyone can go out and get a car financed. Not everyone meets the criteria in the credit policies and those are more strict now than ever before. I’ve been turned away from more car lots than I want to think about so a private owner for cash is my only option. Dealers don’t want my business, period. So be it. At least that way I can keep up my same level of prepping without worrying about some stupid car note.
Do you have back up parts for all that?
very cool menzo 🙂
With Michael Snyder, there never is any good news. All pessimism, doom and gloom.
Spot on! He makes a ton of money selling survival supplies.
Here is an article that looks at the current fiscal situation in Washington:
https://viableopposition.blogspot.com/2018/09/irresponsible-fiscal-management-in.html
It is this issue that is going to make it very difficult for both the Federal Reserve and the federal government to bail the economy out during the next recession.
I disagree. Infrastructure in the USA is a shambles. Funding infrastructure projects to put people back to work after a recession will be the strategy. The question is:
“How do you pay for infrastructure repairs without creating EXCESSIVE inflation?”
Simple. You create TAX FREE US Government Infrastructure Bonds linked to specific projects, where repayment will come from user fees.
The GLOBAL UBER RICH will need a place to put all that cash they have created when crunch time comes.:-)
Life is cheap. Only money matters and war to make life cheaper in value. The more you have the more you want. The more you need the less you get. The devil is in the details.
BTW how did his run for the senate or whatever in, I think, Idaho turn out?
Car salesmen are making money on leases, trade ins, and loan percentages. That’s about it. I wish the manufacturers would eliminate all those extra toys, like the computer screen dashboard, wi-fi, serius radio, gps, bluetooth, etc. Get the prices down. When I buy a vehicle, it’s for transportation, period. It’s not for entertainment or communications.
Him, same here. To me a vehicle is transportation and nothing else. Besides, the older vehicles have less electronics and not as expensive to keep running.
Remember the old “cash for clunkers” deal? There was a reason for it and many went for it. They got rid of the better older cars for expensive new cars full of electronic crap that breaks down more. ( that would also include electronic household things also. )
Older cars could easily be repaired by a person with brains. Stock up on extra parts, you will need them in the future. If… We have the gas to run anything on. If not, build a gassifier. Look it up. It does a lot of things.
The problem with most things is people got so materialistic and greedy. Wanted things cheap. Had to have it. So now, we are paying for it.
Forget gold. It will not feed you.
Many think this will straighten out.
The difference here is that most every country is experiencing the same things. It is global.
Hang onto the seat of your pants because it’s gonna be a bumpy ride.
One that many will not like.
Doom and gloom? Sure, but it’s true and no avoiding it.
We ain’t seen nothing yet. But it is coming.
Agree the screens and buttons are just more shit to break. What’s next the sex robot to blow you while you drive. They should offer you the option of not having all the snot if you don’t wanna pay for that. I’d buy stick shift but they don’t seem to wanna build vehicles with it the snowflakes can’t drive em.
If they can’t spy on you they don’t know what you are thinking. This reality intensifies with zero pushback from citizens. Steady erosion of freedom is how they roll. I feel like a number.
The Federal Reserve is trying to create a collapse for political reasons by raising interest rates. The banks make the most of their mmoney during recessions by repoing property that the owner has high equity in. the banks get the equity as a profit. All recessions are created since the end of WWII. Each recession kills 50,000 Americans by stress, suicide etc. The Fed has killed more Americans than WWII. This is from the book The Secrets of the Temple
If the economy was really good, we could take the training wheels off. We are running more that $1 trillion per year still in deficit. That is more than $3000/person welfare money extra. I have 6 in my family. The way I see it, the government is borrowing more than $20,000 per year just for my family. Not going to end well.
Moses wrote some serious stuff there. Those facts are true and makes my stomock sick. Welcome to the board, its this type of negativity makes us on SHTF thrive.
House sales in Houston/Texas in General?
Not in Texas, ever since they flooded out the city, business has been booming and you cant complain. New car sales have collapsed, and people are buying used instead since new does no mean that the piece of shit wont break down. Goofygal, buy the older model for ceratin, my buddy owns one, and its reliable. The new ones are computerized BMW/MERCEDES type of electrical shit, that keeps causing breakdowns.
HCKS
Increasing the Negativity and blood pressure bar.
HCKS, I’m with you. I hate all the electronic garbage that decorates new vehicles like a Christmas tree. It seems like most computer boards are good for about 5-6 years and then look out. Found the same thing to be true for my range; I can still use the top burners but the oven is gone unless I buy a $500 replacement part (the motherboard). I like my computer but I don’t need that stuff in my car or kitchen, etc. It just breaks down too fast–faster than I can get money in the door.
He came in 99th in the primary.
Blah blah blah passenger car sales fell
SUV and truck sales jumped over 10 percent
And used car sales jumped as well
So that’s tells us what? People wanted the more popular
Hybrids and suvs. So what! Doesn’t mean the whole thing is collapsing
Home sale are per area
Most are overvalued and there is not enough afffordable homes
Like ranchers and first time home buyer homes being built.
Part of that is increased cost and regulations that have yet to be addressed
Put up a development in my area full of rancher
You won’t be able to build them fast enough!
All doom and gloom fear porn
Nothing to see here
I keep thinking, is this guy trying to destroy us or what?? WHY is he doing this??!
anyhow, I’ve basically given up on politics– I don’t believe ANY of them! but I do wonder if Trump is doing this– destroying the economy accidentally– or if the deep state is coaxing him– paying him off or something??
The prices of new cars and homes have been outrageous for years upon years and I certainly do no not blame Trumps tarrifs from yesterday.
Anything with a computer is going to break down
in a few years. My car was 8 years old when it had
electrical problems.. Windows, tail lights, heated seats,
key fob trunk opener, remote start, radio and clock!
Took it to a mechanic who owned the same model
of car and he disconnected the remote start,
replaced the fuses, replaced a window motor and
Wa la….Everything worked like new! Cost was
$240 including a few parts and oil change.
Had 37k miles…looked like showroom new
but the BEST PART was I drove it for another
10 years.
Got a good price when I sold it as it was then
18 years old and 51k miles. Really hated to sell it.
I thought sure it would cost $3000 to fix everything but
still cheaper than new……and It was long ago
paid for.!!!!
There are good deals out there, but it takes patience
and research to find them.?
The mechanic told me remote starters are no good.
They go out after about 5 years and effect many
other functions.
its gonna be painful if we want to be our own country again. how long before we are just a welfare state with just our hands out expecting to be given everything. if thays how u feel then dont complain when u get ur chip turned off for doing something the police state doesnt like. otherwise roll up ur sleeves and realize living will cost more btinging industry back home. pretty sure workers here wont work for a dollar a day.
Not taking away anything from Trump but if anyone thinks the economy is on steady ground is absolutely loony.
Job numbers may be up; unemployment down but the jobs we lost in the early 2000’s have been replaced with pale shadows of their former positions.
The tragedy is, Trump has everyone feeling good about America again (snowflakes be damned) and they would be spending like crazy – if they had anything to spend!
I’ve been living lean for a few years now. Attempted a new business and got my ass kicked. NJ is not a business friendly state. Finding a job that pays a living wage has definitely gotten harder.
Oddly enough, the civil servant jobs that the dumber kids in high school took are now raking in six figures. I personally know of a cop who is making over 190K this year with all the OT and special details (human traffic cone) (which, by the way, jack up your utility bills).
Let that sink in a bit,
Cop.
Almost 200K per year and he’s not alone.
And he’s not the highest paid.
Your tax dollars at work.
Why so many cars?
Now before someone says “planned obsolesence” let me give you some insight as to how it works where I work.
1. High turnover rate in employees. Tribal knowledge is lost on a regular basis. They try to make procedures to capture it, it’s all bullshit. It’s bullshit to make middle managers look good and entirely ineffectual.
2. Ridiculously tight deadlines. They will only start designing at customer commitment and they now have 6-8 months when that happens. Corners are gonna get cut just because how the fuck.
3. Testing facilities that are either a laughable joke or totally booked. You’re only going to get to test critical shit and that’s if you think of it between the fucking 5 other models you’re working on in the same time frame. Aka “understaffed” all around. Also known as “running lean”. Also known as “maximum profits”. Also known as UNDERSTAFFED in plain English.
4. No budgetary appetite to prototype for the sake of learning. It’s only going to prototype in that 8 month window after customer commitment, by then it’s far too late to do it right.
5. And lastly an R&D department focused entirely and solely on “neeto factor”. Not on better manufacturing. Not on debugging basic chasis. Think “Android bullshit in your dashboard”. Think “tire pressure indicators on the dash”.
So it may SEEM like planned obsolesence but under these conditions and ESPECIALLY condition 1 and 2 I mean what the fuck do you think is going to happen.
In the end yeah turns out “obsolecense” but it sure as shit ain’t “planned” from what I see.
Always said in the last election we had two choices:
1. Nuclear war with Russia and “equal rights for avocados” (assuming any survived)
2. Recession.
Well shit, 2 was baked into the pie so it was a no brainer.
That said it’s going to be worse this time.
In the end will it be better for us? Shrug. Hail Mary pass on that one. But doing nothing would have guaranteed our demise so shrug again.
The new cars are so unattractive. I can see why nobody wants to spend the money. The only new transportation I would consider is a Jeep Wrangler but they don’t meet my towing requirements.
The price of new is off the wall and all the crappy gadgetry , really! I have no interest in even considering a new vehicle. The only luxury I want is A.C., an AM/FM radio is nice too…but I don’t need them.
or maybe new cars/trucks are=
over priced
over complicated
break down magnets
older used cars =85% of car for 25/40% 0f price
retail car salesman are hated-ed.
did i say over priced
average new car price ?$35-40k
no thankz
I have a friend that lives in northern AZ , he works for a contractor building high end homes , they are building tons of them around the prescott , flagstaff area , 10,000 in one place and another 25,00 to be built in the next few years . they assume its all because of folks in CA, leaving by the thousands , most of them retired LE and vets . Most bringing their liberal attudes with them . the issue is that Fortis , a canadian powere generation co. is about to take half the water out of the Largets undergrown lake west of the mississippi river , in yavapai county Az. they are planning to build a twin pond system to use for elect. generation , it will allow them to steal half the underground water 80 billion gallons.
Has anyone considered that economic decline can also be linked to the 50,000,000 plus human beings that have been murdered by abortion? Two generations have disappeared, impacting home buying, car purchases, and many other consumer-related issues.