This article was originally published by Tyler Durden at ZeroHedge.
Update (1010ET): Talk about a spike in deaths: Iran is now reporting 9 deaths after shocking the world by revealing that two Chinese nationals infected with the virus had died in the city of Qoms earlier this week.
The Iranian regime has reportedly imposed a China-style crackdown on Qoms, deploying military and crowd-control police across the city.
It’s just the latest sign that the cases and deaths ex-China are accelerating.
CNBC’s Eunice Yoon reports that Beijing has warned Hubei not to allow people back to work before March 10.
— Eunice Yoon (@onlyyoontv) February 20, 2020
#Coronavirus has affected consumption in Jan, Feb, says Commerce Ministry official. Expects consumption to stay in recovery mode in Q2, and further improve in H2. Hardest hit industries? F&B, lodging, tourism, culture, entertainment. Flagged by @CNBC @chengevelyn. #China
— Eunice Yoon (@onlyyoontv) February 20, 2020
Local leaders said yesterday that they would launch a special financing vehicle to help struggling companies in the province survive the outbreak.
Following the WHO’s daily press conference, Director-General Dr. Tedros said the WHO had confirmed 1,000 cases outside mainland China (with more than half of them infected aboard the ‘Diamond Princess’), and 7 deaths, likely exclude some of the deaths announced over the past 12 hours. Though he added that the data coming out of China “appeared to show a decline in new cases.”
“Outside China, we have seen a steady drip of new cases, but we have not yet seen sustained local transmission, except in specific circumstances like the Diamond Princess cruise ship,” he added.
More ominously, Dr. Tedros exclaimed that the outbreak is far from over, and if governments don’t take adequate steps to fight the virus, the number of cases outside China “won’t stay low for very long.”
Worried about more shortages of personal protective equipment like facemasks, Dr. Tedros pleaded with a dozen different manufacturers to do whatever they can to keep up appropriate global supplies.
— World Health Organization (WHO) (@WHO) February 20, 2020
The director said the WHO expects to have more data from two clinical trials for treatments in roughly 3 weeks.
Since we haven’t posted a breakdown of new cases yet today, we figured we’d share this list of countries, cases and deaths courtesy of the Associated Press:
According to the Associated Press, the latest figures provided by each government’s health authority as of Thursday in Beijing are:
- Mainland China: 2,118 deaths among 74,576 cases, mostly in the central province of Hubei
- Hong Kong: 65 cases, 2 deaths
- Macao: 10
- Japan: 727 cases, including 634 from a cruise ship docked in Yokohama, 3 deaths
- Singapore: 84
- South Korea: 51, 1 death
- Thailand: 35
- Taiwan: 24 cases, 1 death
- Malaysia: 22
- Vietnam: 16
- Germany: 16
- United States: 15 cases; separately, 1 U.S. citizen died in China
- Australia: 14
- France: 12 cases, 1 death
- United Kingdom: 9
- United Arab Emirates: 9
- Canada: 8
- Iran: 5 cases, 2 deaths
- Philippines: 3 cases, 1 death
- India: 3
- Italy: 3
- Russia: 2
- Spain: 2
- Belgium: 1
- Nepal: 1
- Sri Lanka: 1
- Sweden: 1
- Cambodia: 1
- Finland: 1
- Egypt: 1
In other news, UK passengers aboard the ‘Diamond Princess’ will be evacuated by their government on Friday. The chartered evacuation flights (following the standard template) will land at Boscombe Down airbase in Wiltshire. Elsewhere in the anglosphere, Australia has extended its travel ban for arrivals from China into the fourth week. It will last until Feb. 29, the Guardian reported.
* * *
Hours after Japanese press reports claimed that two passengers who contracted COVID-19 aboard the ‘Diamond Princess’ died yesterday – news that was later confirmed by Japanese authorities – South Korea reported its first fatality while one of its major cities asked citizens to stay inside and avoid venturing outdoors, according to the Washington Post.
According to Japanese government officials, both of the virus-related fatalities were Japanese citizens in their 80s who had been moved off the ship more than a week ago for treatment in a Japanese hospital, though the government has so far declined to release names.
The latest reports Thursday morning confirmed another 13 cases aboard the DP bringing the total to 634. The odds that individuals being released from the 2-week quarantine on Thursday and Friday might have contracted the virus, but have yet to show symptoms, remains high. The death in South Korea raised the death toll ex-China to 10.
The speed is hardly a surprise for those who have been paying attention to all of the new research, instead of dismissing it for being ‘alarmist’ and ‘not peer-reviewed’.
Finally, earlier this week, researchers published the largest study yet of the outbreak, which confirmed that COVID-19 is more contagious than SARS and MERS, leaving it on par with seasonal influenza.
Still, experts insist that the virus’s fatality rate is probably around 2%, meaning that it’s less deadly than SARS, but the wider spread will result in more deaths, CNN reports.
“My sense and the sense of many of my colleagues, is that the ultimate case fatality rate … is less than 2%,” Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute for Allergy and Infectious Diseases, told CNN’s Jim Sciutto on “New Day” Tuesday. “What is likely not getting counted is a large number of people who are either asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic, so the denominator of your equation is likely much much larger.”
“So I would think at tops it’s 2% and it likely will go down when all the counting gets done to 1% or less. That’s still considerable if you look at the possibility that you’re dealing with a global pandemic,” he added.
Even as President Xi does everything in his power to present an image of success to the Chinese people – in his speeches, he claims the Chinese government’s strict quarantines have been an unmitigated success – global experts, including the WHO, have warned that the disease will continue to spread globally and that the end of this crisis is still far from certain.
And as new confirmed cases dropped substantially on Wednesday in Hubei, everywhere else, the rate of new infections is accelerating.
In South Korea, the number of cases soared by almost two-thirds to 104 overnight, further emphasizing our observation that the number of cases ex-China has started to accelerate notably as the curve starts to resemble an exponential progression.
One WHO health expert told a Japanese TV station on Thursday that the virus is “a moving target” making it difficult to collect information and treat people: “Nobody has ever had to deal with this situation before, this is a new virus on a ship with 4,000 people, there are no guidelines for that.” He added that he suspects there was a substantial amount of transmission before it arrived in Yokohama, adding that it was “not possible” to isolate everybody individually.
The WHO senior epidemiologist was responding to claims made by another expert in infectious disease that the Japanese had failed to observe proper quarantine protocols.
Back in Korea, the mayor of Daegu, a city of 2.5 million where 10 South Koreans contracted the disease from a church service, asked residents to stay indoors. Iran also reported two infected that then died.
Experts suspect that one woman in Daegu may have infected at least 40 others by going to her Christian church, according to Yonhap. The alleged ‘superspreader’ is the reason for the huge jump in new cases on Thursday. Experts say the city is now facing an “unprecedented crisis” following the spike in cases.
“We are in an unprecedented crisis,” Daegu’s mayor, Kwon Young-jin, told the press.
Cases are also surging in Singapore, where Deutsche Bank confirmed that an employee in its Singapore office had contracted the virus.
Adding to its woes, Iran reported three new cases on Thursday a day after it confirmed two virus-related deaths in the city of Qom.
Warnings about the virus’s economic blowback are increasing, as Goldman said Thursday that stocks aren’t completely pricing in the risks from the virus.
Meanwhile, Air France-KLM, Qantas, and the global container shipping giant Maersk became the latest companies to warn about the financial impact of the continued spread of the coronavirus.
As President Xi balances the risks to tens of thousands of lives on one hand and keeping his promise to double the size of China’s economy by 2020 on the other, it seems the leadership in Beijing are beginning to believe their own propaganda. Premier Li Keqiang, Xi’s No. 2 who is in charge of the committee managing the crisis, local governments should seek to increase the rate of resumed production and work, according to China Central Television.
Put another way: Come on in, the water’s fine, and if you get the virus and die, we’ll cremate your body and tell your family you died of “pneumonia.”
China’s smartphone shipment declined 50%-60% during the 2020 Spring Festival holidays due to the coronavirus outbreak. About 60 million smartphones remain unsold.
Chinese officials are pulling out all the fiscal and monetary steps to protect China’s damaged economy, and on Thursday local officials from Hubei announced a new lending scheme – a “special financing vehicle” – worth 50 billion yuan (more than $7 billion) to stabilize financing for local companies.
To be sure, the drop in new cases last night was largely caused by health officials reversing their decision to include “clinically diagnosed” patients – i.e. those who haven’t yet tested positive due to a shortage of effective tests – in the case totals.
The spate of deaths rattled investors overnight, and US equity futures are pointing to a lower open on Thursday, and a rush of risk-off trading in Asia has pushed the BBG dollar index to a 4-month high following the latest piece of evidence that the coronavirus isn’t simply “another flu”.