This article was written by Michael Snyder and originally published at his Economic Collapse blog.
Editor’s Comment: While official and unofficial mouthpieces continue to cheerlead for the markets and pretend that everything is OK, things are already in a lot of trouble in the real world – and the numbers show it. Developing nations are facing a huge crisis, and according to all the experts, are in danger of spreading contagion.
As SHTF reported, analysts claim that there is no way to stop what is coming, as debtor nations prepare to face the music, and “world economic order” threatens to collapse. If it does, and defaults begin, the dominoes could fall quickly, as the globalized world has left itself quite vulnerable…
The Numbers Say That A Major Global Recession Has Already Begun
by Michael Snyder
The biggest bank in the western world has just come out and declared that the global economy is “already in a recession”. According to British banking giant HSBC, global trade is down 8.4 percent so far this year, and global GDP expressed in U.S. dollars is down 3.4 percent. So those that are waiting for the next worldwide economic recession to begin can stop waiting. It is officially here. As you will see below, money is fleeing emerging markets at a blistering pace, major global banks are stuck with huge loans that will never be repaid, and it looks like a very significant worldwide credit crunch has begun. Just a few days ago, I explained that the IMF, the UN, the BIS And Citibank were all warning that a major economic crisis could be imminent. They aren’t just making this stuff up out of thin air, but most Americans still seem to believe that everything is going to be just fine. The level of blind faith in the system that most people are demonstrating right now is absolutely astounding.
The numbers say that the global economy has not been in this bad shape since the devastating recession that shook the world in 2008 and 2009. According to HSBC, “we are already in a dollar recession”…
Global trade is also declining at an alarming pace. According to the latest data available in June the year on year change is -8.4%. To find periods of equivalent declines we only really find recessionary periods. This is an interesting point. On one metric we are already in a recession. As can be seen in Chart 3 on the following page, global GDP expressed in US dollars is already negative to the tune of USD 1,37trn or -3.4%. That is, we are already in a dollar recession.
Here is the chart that Zero Hedge posted along with the quote above. As you can see, the only time global GDP expressed in U.S. dollars has fallen faster in recent years was during the horrible recession of seven years ago…
But there are still a whole lot of incredibly clueless people running around out there claiming that “nothing is happening” even though more signs of trouble are erupting all around us every single day.
For instance, just today CNBC published an article entitled “The US is closer to deflation than you think“, and Twitter just announced that it plans to lay off 8 percent of its entire workforce.
But of course the biggest problems are happening in “emerging markets” right now. The following is an excerpt from an article that was just published in a major British news source entitled “The world economic order is collapsing and this time there seems no way out“…
Now act three is beginning, but in countries much less able to devise measures to stop financial contagion and whose banks are more precarious. For global finance next flooded the so-called emerging market economies (EMEs), countries such as Turkey, Brazil, Malaysia, China, all riding high on sky-high commodity prices as the China boom, itself fuelled by wild lending, seemed never-ending. China manufactured more cement from 2010-13 than the US had produced over the entire 20th century. It could not last and so it is proving.
China’s banks are, in effect, bust: few of the vast loans they have made can ever be repaid, so they cannot now lend at the rate needed to sustain China’s once super-high but illusory growth rates. China’s real growth is now below that of the Mao years: the economic crisis will spawn a crisis of legitimacy for the deeply corrupt communist party. Commodity prices have crashed.
Money is flooding out of the EMEs, leaving overborrowed companies, indebted households and stricken banks, but EMEs do not have institutions such as the Federal Reserve or European Central Bank to knock up rescue packages. Yet these nations now account for more than half of global GDP. Small wonder the IMF is worried.
It is one thing for The Economic Collapse Blog to warn that “the world economic order is collapsing”, but this is one of the biggest newspapers in the UK.
I was writing about these emerging market problems back in July, but at that time very few really understood the true gravity of the situation. But now giant banks such as Goldman Sachs are calling this the third stage of the ongoing global financial crisis. The following comes from a recent CNBC piece entitled “Is EM turmoil the third wave of the financial crisis? Goldman thinks so“…
Emerging markets aren’t just suffering through another market rout—it’s a third wave of the global financial crisis, Goldman Sachs said.
“Increased uncertainty about the fallout from weaker emerging market economies, lower commodity prices and potentially higher U.S. interest rates are raising fresh concerns about the sustainability of asset price rises, marking a new wave in the Global Financial Crisis,” Goldman said in a note dated last week.
The emerging market wave, coinciding with the collapse in commodity prices, follows the U.S. stage, which marked the fallout from the housing crash, and the European stage, when the U.S. crisis spread to the continent’s sovereign debt, the bank said.
You know that it is late in the game when Goldman Sachs starts sounding exactly like The Economic Collapse Blog. I have been warning about a “series of waves” for years.
When will people wake up?
What is it going to take?
The crisis is happening right now.
Of course many Americans will refuse to acknowledge what is going on until the Dow Jones Industrial Average collapses by several thousand more points. And that is coming. But let us all hope that day is delayed for as long as possible, because all of our lives will become much crazier once that happens.
And the truth is that many Americans do understand that bad times are on the horizon. Just check out the following numbers that were recently reported by CNBC…
The CNBC All-America Economic Survey finds views on the current state of the economy about stable, with 23 percent saying it is good or excellent and 42 percent judging it as fair. About a third say the economy is poor, up 3 points from the June survey.
But the percentage of Americans who believe the economy will get worse rose 6 points to 32 percent, the highest level since the government shutdown in 2013. And just 22 percent believe the economy will get better, 2 points lower than June and the lowest level since 2008, when the nation was gripped by recession.
If you want to believe that everything is going to be just fine somehow, then go ahead and believe that.
All I can do is present the facts. For months I have been warning about this financial crisis, and now it is playing out as a slow-motion train wreck right in front of our eyes.
We are moving into a period of time during which events are going to start to move much more rapidly, and life as we know it is about to change in a major way for all of us.
Hopefully you have already been preparing for what is about to come.
If not, I wouldn’t want to be in your position.
Michael T. Snyder is a graduate of the University of Florida law school and he worked as an attorney in the heart of Washington D.C. for a number of years.
Today, Michael is best known for his work as the publisher of The Economic Collapse Blog and The American Dream.
If you want to know what things in America are going to look like in a few years read his new book The Beginning of the End.
This article was written by Michael Snyder and originally published at his Economic Collapse blog.
There is tons of work in my sector…
You work for the State? Standing in line…..
What sector is that?
Cable & fiber design to the business…
We are in the business of selling of said equipment. The last few years we have expanded in to wireless design and network security developing our own security products.
Mr Snyder takes quotes from ‘The Guardian’ newspaper. Hah! This rag is so left wing in its reporting it makes your Democratic party look like Republicans!
And how can anyone take Snyder seriously after so many, many failed predictions? If he was a horse racing tipster he’d be out of business in next to no time.
I cannot comprehend how he can keep on posting spurious (mis)information and downright lies!
I wonder if he has a copyright on the phrase” slow motion train wreck”. After all, it HAS been keeping him in business for years now. I wonder what he does with his money, do you think he spends most of it on “preps” or maybe new cars, vacations, boats, etc. You know, the things that ” sheeple” spend their money on.
Sooner or later a country will have a down turn or upturn in their economy. Keep saying it for years and it will happen. That’s the nature of economies.
Tons of work,
Makin’ little ‘uns out of big ‘uns, rock pile work and chasin your chains.
So maybe it’s time for the world to slow down take a few days off, relax and enjoy itself for a while.
So the “End of The World” is now changed to “Recession”. Mr. Snyder has changed his mind? I am afraid such reports are only benefiting the elites to keep the peasants busy with the ground hog day approach.
The Dow is down again this morning. The Asian markets were down last night, and the European markets are down so far this morning.
I have concluded the stock market is not a good indicator of the economy. The stock market is propped up by fraud and how do you measure fraud?
Exactly! The gov knows we look to the stock market to see if we’re “doing alright or not”. There are tons of ways to manipulate the market. It’s not a good source for “how we’re doing”.
“how do you measure fraud”
The best indicator that I see is how many white collar financial criminals are not criminally charged. As the percentage of criminals increases from no prosecutions the greater the number of financial crimes are committed.
Using the above indicator the numbers are large and growing.
John Stiner: I agree with you, but there are indicators in each and every sector of the country that may be quite different from any other sector. Ex: Here in Texas the oil fields have been slaughtered. Unemployment is rampant and the overall economy is flatlining. But other parts of the country may be doing great. I don’t know. And that is why they feed us just the info they want us to know. The dots will never be connected to the understanding of the working people until it is too late to do anything about it. thanks
Well how ’bout this. The worlds largest retailer WalMart jus missed their projected growth/profit target and their stocks dropped 9 percent in seconds. This caused the Dow to tumble 40 points on the announcement. WalMart also announced that they project their entire 2016 sales to be flat and that their expenses will be greater than their profits for the next three years as they will buy 20 million of their owns stocks back.
All we can do is watch this happen. We can do nothing about it. Please don’t dwell on the negative dwell on the positive.
Sgt.
Absolutely perfect, sound and well said advice.
Sgt. Positive,
Lead melts at about 610 degrees F. Mix in a little antimony and a touch of tin. Pour into 230 grain .45 RN mold. Size and lube. Load with your favorite bang bang.
Keep an edge on your Kbar.
When it absolutely, positively needs to get down range with a punch, shoot ’em in a 1911.
try to gain a new skill every week or every other week and work to master them as best you can
i have decided the future of prepping and surviving will be to re-purpose old things.
Just this week I took apart a lawn edger. It has a really tough 110 volt motor that does not bog down. I converted it into a metal grinder for my workshop.
Total expense to me for a new grinder = zero.
Try this skill:
Sweep the carpet with a broom.
Before exercising try this. Take a wet towel and roll it up. Place the towel on wood or linoleum floor. Bend over (no this is not a wise crack) and push the towel along the floor from one end of the room to the other and back until the entire floor has been cleaned.
This is how the floor is cleaned and the body readied for exercise in martial arts.
I thought the exercise to martial arts was WAX ON, WAX OFF
Metals are up and the dollar is down again today. The Feds plunge protection team has been working overtime these last few months and doing a pretty good job of keeping the illusion that everything is OK. Now though, they are beginning to see its a losing battle. Nothing they can do can keep it propped up forever. Soon, the slope of the decline of the dollar will get steeper.
In the end there is a root cause and symptoms. Often symptoms are confused for cause. As I see it.
Symptoms:
1. Personal Debt
2. Governmental Debt
3. Massive Entitlement Increase
Cause:
1. Transfer of manufacturing to the third world where labor cannot afford to purchase the goods they produce.
2. Deregulated Financial Sector which facilitates financial investment to divorce from productivity and profit.
A. An intentional lack of enforcement of the remaining Financial laws/regulations not removed in #2
B. Transfer of increasingly greater percentages of wealth to a sub fraction of a percent of the population.
Kevin2:
Under your number two, government debt, should it not list expenditures by the military. It especially expensive to wage wars when you spend $20.00 for a pencil.
They don’t really spend that much for a pencil,
50 cents go towards the pencil, another 50 cents to bribe appropriate parties to keep quiet and cooperate and 19 dollars goes to assorted black ops organizations that aren’t funded on the books to keep them out of sight.
If all is well why did Walmart just have it’s worst day in 15 years??? Think about this; Walmart could collapse if the EBT system is shut down for more than a week.
Just think of all the companies and banks that are only surviving off the Fed’s monetary heroin…
Mass mood of all the investors…
ht tp://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-10-13/death-hopium
Patriot One:
Walmart’s worst day. Let me think. Oh yes, that little business of forcing Walmart to stop selling certain rifles and making them video tape gun buyers and to turn over such video to the Gestapo. The boycott of Second Amendment citizens, who by the way are probably one of the largest demographic of camping and sports purchases.
So, fascism is bad for business. There is a selling point for sane businessmen to end this fascist/communist takeover of America.
Walmart also has inventory problems. I went into one a while back to buy some onions. They did not have a single onion of any kind. I have never been in a grocery store that was completely out of a common vegetable. There are other examples of Walmart being out of things they should never run out of.
Archivist: Yes they do. Back in the 80’s If a store manager had an out of stock his job was at risk. Today I can walk into any Walmart and find 100 out of stocks. If you go on a Saturday afternoon you could find 10 to 20 out of stocks in produce alone. The just in time delivery isn’t working because they have very little back room stock.
Not to mention the policy of Walmart charging lower prices on many items on their shelves causing manufacturers to use inferior parts/materials on their products.
Don’t believe it??? Research the jeans, and my electric kettle only lasted 1 1/2 years.
I stay away from Walmart unless I am desperate in need and don’t have much time.
Brand for brand, the stuff you buy at Walmart is the same stuff you buy at other stores.
It’s the American consumer that demands the lowest possible prices, Walmart just delivers it to them.
Anonymous the brand names are the same, but the product isn’t. Take a washer machine, on the outside they look identical, but the motor, drum, belt and switches are different and now to compete all the other retailers are doing the same thing. In the end all we have is crappy cheap Chinese junk that cost more to repair than the aquisition cost.
Sorry B, maybe I’m stupid, but I don’t understand what you are trying to say.
Was in Italy recently and just saw ship after ship parked off the coast. Last time I saw that, it was the 2008 crash. Just sipped my espresso back then from the roof top restaurant of a swanky hotel opposite a beautiful blonde and admired the ships for miles and miles. I knew the government would print and print to get out of that mess.
This time? It will be the virtual world I described in previous posts. The government has pooched most of the central bank measures (still some room there but it is tight). This time they will have to get radical and make the big switch. Since 2008, the majority of the world’s population has been logged and tagged. This digital grid is now ready to be projected on to an artificial reality. This artificial reality will shape the world and how all of us are managed. God help you if you have been tagged as stupid or an eater (or hater) since 2008. The system will need a smallish cabal of the connected to keep it going, while the majority of the world’s population will go into lock-down, be sifted and sorted, and then reassigned according to their ability/utility. All of this is relatively easy to do since the majority of the world’s population is now in debt.
You admired the ships, for miles and miles, yet the beautiful blonde you ignored ?
Walmart has seen increasing competition from Dollar Stores and Aldi’s over the past few years. Down here there is a new Aldi’s store opening every few months and they cater to those who want the lowest priced groceries with a business model that accepts only cash or EBT and charges you a refundable 25c for the use of a cart. You can get in and out of a dollar store quicker if you are just going in for junk items like picnic supplies or holiday decorations.
Walmart did a lot of business in electronics too, over the past decade with the emergence of the netbook, then tablets, ipods and pads, flatscreens, HD, etc. It is no wonder things have slowed down. People have a lot of stuff- market is saturated.
China’s post-peasantry are still far from spending their hard earned yuan like lunatics… so they might as well rent out sone of those ghost cities to deserving refugees.
This is off subject and I have been considering this for some time. I’ve have come to a decision. I have a small tactical firearms school in Louisville Ky. I have all of my international firearm certs along with my military qualifications. I work for a security contractor and will be gone for several months as an advisor and instructor. I should be back in country by June 2016. I have a private range on 2800 acres. I will teach five people from this site, combat pistol and carbine. Two 6 to 8 hour days. It will be on a Saturday and Sunday. I will teach these courses for free. These will be dynamic in nature. If you can’t run 1.5 miles I wouldn’t bother. This is my personal email. [email protected]. There is no catch or gimmick. It is my contribution to the people on this site. If you have a problem with me being a contractor, get over it. The classes are free. You’ll have to arrange your room and board, ammo, etc. If I can get one of my other guys to join in I’ll take ten people. I’m going to try and put together a long gun course as well. Stand by for more on that.
Right now I’m just fishing for interest.
If you are not experienced with a pistol and carbine/AK. Do not try to get a slot. You will not be able to keep up. IF there is an interest in basic pistol and carbine I will offer that later or first, where ever the interest is greater.
One more thing. You will need to have a background check to show me or your CCW permit. That’s going to piss some of you off, that’s just the way it is.
Have a good one.
Thanks for the invite. You are well on your way to starting a stand alone citizen militia.
Mac if you want to attend I’ll teach six. That way you don’t feel like your taking up a slot.
I did’nt read this article, as I am boycotting Snyder. Too many of the same articles over and over again. It is obvious to me he is doing nothing useful except to cash in off advertising on his websites. So I’m moving on, there’s nothing to see here. Besides he’s a lawyer.
Socmarine87. Another corrupt contractor whore mercenary working for the NWO teaching ISIS how to commit genocide. You are the problem. No thanks!!
The new debt number is 62 trillion . 62 trillion seconds is two million years . How are we even paying the interest on that .Satans greatest weapon is the lie. And I think the satanists are using it big time.
Many people miss some articles so it’s good to repeat things .Im still trying to find geniuses short comment on guns I replied That’s very genius genius . I wish he would post it every day for the people that missed it. The new debt number or lie is 62 trillion. If you lay dollar bills end to end 62 trillion will go around this planet 250,000 times . We should repeat that often so people realize That Ww3 is a real big possibility. Or nessesity .? And has been predicted in the back of the book.