CFOs Predict A 2020 Market Crash And Recession In 2019

by | Dec 13, 2018 | Headline News | 27 comments

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    A vast majority of chief financial officers in the United States say that the economy will sink into a recession by the end of President Donald Trump’s first term in 2020, and about half say it will happen next year.  Many are predicting a recession in 2019 and an all-out market crash in 2020.

    According to an article by Newsweek almost half of corporate CFOs  (49 percent) say that the U.S. economy’s decade-long growth streak is set to collide with worsening debt woes. And that will manifest with the country facing a recession by the end of next year. Corporate finance leaders are preparing for the recession to hit within 18 months, and 82 percent of CFOs interviewed in the latest quarterly Duke University/CFO Global Business Outlook survey expect the U.S. to slide into a recession by 2020.

    This survey was completed on December 7 of this year and consisted of responses gathered from more than 500 CFOs, including 226 from North American companies.

    “The end is near for the near-decade-long burst of global economic growth,” said John Graham, a finance professor at Duke University’s Fuqua School of Business and director of the survey, in a statement. “The U.S. outlook has declined; moreover, the outlook is even worse in many other parts of the world, which will lead to softer demand for U.S. goods.”

    The CFOs, who appear to be increasingly pessimistic about the U.S.’s economy, say that several economic markers have only worsened since the Great Recession a decade ago and that they now predict earnings growth, capital spending, and research and development investment to fall. The CFOs said most growth will occur at the beginning of next year, which still gives the government time to “soften the fall,” Graham pointed out.

    “All of the ingredients are in place: a waning expansion that began in June 2009, almost a decade ago; heightened market volatility; the impact of growth-reducing protectionism; and the ominous flattening of the yield curve, which has predicted recessions accurately over the past 50 years,” said Campbell Harvey, the founding director of the Duke/ CFO survey.

    Economists have repeatedly issued warnings in the past several years about skyrocketing global debt caused by central banks flooding national economies with cheap money. In 2008, global debt was only $177 trillion, compared with $247 trillion today. In the U.S. economy, household debt has dramatically worsened, automobile loans are far exceeding their 2008 peaks, and unpaid credit card balances are just as high as the period preceding the Great Recession. -Newsweek


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      1. What!!!!

        No Peter Schiff article !!!

        How am I supposed to have my daily dose of doom and gloom without a Peter Schiff article!!!

        • I guess an article I read 2 weeks ago quoted the 51% who said there was no recession anywhere on the horizon. But how do they really know? I’m no economist by any stretch but I am convinced that a select group could crash the market whenever they want

        • JS, we’ve been in a recession since 2008. Chicken Little gets so old after awhile.

      2. Anyone ever notice how these predictions by the “experts” are ALWAYS a year or two away from whatever year we’re in currently?!?!

        Me personally, I don’t give a flying f*ck. My family’s shit is wired tight 24/7 365. With a long enough horizon sure… anything is plausible, if not absolute.

        • They learned from Al Gore. Al Gore said that by 2019 the planet would be uninhabitable because of global warming.

          Since that did not happen they have changed the narrative of the lie to “climate change”.

      3. With their massive wins in the House, the Democrats are back in power so I would expect a crash starting next year (and not just a financial market crash).

        The Republicans now have regained their excuse for going along with the Democrats on everything in the name of bipartisanship they had for so many years so they won’t be held accountable for their roles in returning the country to a leftist direction, I can hear the sigh of relief from them rising out of Washington as a result.

        Prepare for the worst, it it somehow doesn’t happen you will still come out ahead of where you would be if you didn’t.

        • Over 200 people in congress are pending indictments.
          You better believe many of them are Democrats.
          Oh yes my friend, there will be more elections coming soon to replace the scum.
          That House majority you brag about may soon be a minority again.

        43 states face a pension crisis and bankruptcy because when free trade killed the industrial base, the state governments had to create jobs to pretend all was okay. Well instead, since they destroyed the tax base AND overburdened the taxpayers, and foolishly invested in the stockmarket, they are going to disadvantageously draw down when it will cripple their assets even more.

        It will blow up the economy and it has NOTHING to do with President Trump. The globalists are blowing up the US economy on purpose so the extremely wealth can consolidate wealth.

        The economy is barely hanging on because smart retirees invested their hard earned savings and are propping up a foolishly inflated stock market. They lived frugally and paid off their mortgages. Then when the Gen Xers and millennials came along, there were not enough high paying jobs. Guess who they moved in with? The retirees. Retirees are financially supporting previous generations meaning they have less disposable money as well. It creates a cascading financial effect.

        Everything costs more, and few have money to either buy goods or invest. How long can that last? Eventually these retirees die. Then what? BOOM! It will implode.

        First the retirees get too old and move into a facility meaning their home is sold to pay for it. That means everyone else living there must leave. The retirees are no longer able to feed their relatives.

        • Maranatha, good points. Let me add that when the millennials no longer have mommy’s basement to live in they’ll be in a world of hurt. They don’t have the right mindset nor the skills necessary to deal with the real world. The real world will chew them up and spit them out. It’s going to be real interesting.

          • No Hoss, YOU and I will and everyone else are in a world of hurt because those millennials have no ability to pay. The burden always gets shifted.

            They have no ability to pay because they have no jobs that paid like they did in 1990 but are earning HALF of 1990 wages. It’s physically impossible.

            The average American HOUSEHOLD income is around $53,000. That is typically two adults but might be three adults as a THIRD of Millennials live at home. That $53,000 is equivalent to $26,500 in 1990 purchasing power meaning they are living at the poverty line.

            This costs every single citizen in America as it’s a DESTROYER of disposible income. If there is no disposable income, then there is no meaningful service economy.

      5. The economy is an energy construct, not a monetary one. Heat provides the industrial growth economy. Fuels must be consumed to sustain it and provide continuing employment to make things that are ultimately thrown away in order to consume more to enable the debts to be carried forward. The system of rolling debt requires increasing amounts of energy input. The industrial economy relies on one thing…converting explosive force into rotary motion. Internal combustion engines run the economy from vehicles to electric turbines fired by gas or coal. Only hydrocarbons can supply the sufficient amount of fuel to keep things rolling along.

        The problem is the world burns 25 billion barrels of oil a year (2016). New global discoveries (2016) amounted to only 2.4 billion barrels. The seed corn is now being eaten. As existing oil fields deplete and few new cheap and easy to access oil fields are discovered, the economy will sputter and slow to a halt. The financial system will implode since without surplus energy to fuel growth (debt) it seizes up and global trade stops.

        The world is running on old legacy oil. Oil wells cannot be refilled by votes, prayers or money. The apocalypse is just over the horizon. The cause can also be attributed to fuel with a lower EROEI (Energy Returned On Energy Invested). Industry in the last 150 years was built on coal with an EROEI of 50:1 and oil with an EROEI of about 100:1. Cheap surplus energy that created industrial infrastructure enabled the current affluent lifestyle. That no longer can be maintained with oil that now only returns around 20:1 EROEI and falling. It takes more energy to bring a barrel of oil to market than ever before. Wind and solar cannot supply sufficient energy to replace oil.

        When the explosive force no longer keeps the wheels turning, everything stops. The JIT delivery system seizes up and people stop eating. Hungry people will overwhelm those who have prepared. Billions will be liquidated in the Mad Max collapse. Try not to be one of them. Get your sand rail and assless chaps ready now.

        I need a drink.

      6. On CSPAN now. Hearings on Clinton Foundation 501c3 whistleblower. President of will be testifying. IRS rep could not attend. Justice Dept refused to send rep. Democrats already throwing water on hearings claiming they are trying to destroy the Clinton name. sad. Looks to be a big nothing burger but will see.

        • It isn’t intended to accomplish anything, just give a few political interests a chance to pretend they are trying to to satiate those calling for it without actually doing anything.

        • It’s always a big nothing burger when it comes to the Clintons. Nothing is going to happen as long as the Deep State (mainly the FBI and DOJ, are in control.

          Along with an entrenched establishment made up of Progressive Socialist Democrats, the Deep State is running the clock out on all the various Statutes of Limitations.

          The United States is a Banana Republic.

      7. Now what could we do to cope realistically?
        If you read thenews in the last 48 hours, then they discovered that the Permian Reserve of petroleum and natural gas is double what they suspected. This means the USA could handle all of our energy needs with few imports.

        Terrorism is funded in the Middle East by energy sales. This would dry up to a trickle.

        If we can simultaneously withdraw our international defense commitments (like the outrageously moronic assistance to Ukraine), and then gear up industrial capacity inside our nation, we could again be a juggernaut.

        And if we combine creative debt forgiveness with this, we could restore some semblance of 1980s middle class life where the plebians have a decent but modest home and can stimulkate the economy.

        Almost certainly have currency reform such that diversified natural resources become the basis for American money.

        Translation: extreme selfishness based upon nationalism. Stop almost all imports and put everyone back to meaningful work.

      8. Is this really a prediction, or is it a planned event to ensure a Trump defeat for the Dems to win in 2020?

      9. Roger that Infidel, it is planned event and all of it will be Trumps fault.
        If DT is out in 2020, we are _ucked.
        Plan accordingly

      10. When CFO’s are predicting things this far out, they are engineering the failure, not predicting it.
        We all know prices are too high and set for a correction.
        While the American middle class may be an anomaly, we will
        not go quietly into the night. Our grandchildren will
        suffer greatly for the crimes of Democrats, but balance will
        return, it always does.

        • Rellik, it’s interesting that during all 8 years of Obamanation being POTUS the Fed didn’t raise interest rates one time. Stayed at 0 the whole time he was in. Trump comes in and now the interest rate has been raised 7 times and they’re talking about raising it 5 more times. Like another poster said earlier, if Trump is put out, it’s all over.

      11. Too bad they can’t predict the Fed being nationalized by 2020.
        Don’t want to hear about the neocons and military enforcing King Dollar.
        It’s Queen Dollar now and the Saudis know they have to fend for themselves.
        Any country buying S-400 missile systems has already started moving away from the $.
        The Bushies and Obamies are done. New sheriff in town.
        He don’t care what anybody thinks. Especially Europe. He has his own plans.

      12. Thanks for sharing this interesting insight!

      13. “Many are predicting a recession in 2019 and an all-out market crash in 2020.”

        Well, at least we aren’t in a recession now. [sarcasm] And imagine my relief to hear the Crash will not happen until 2020. Whew! [more sarcasm]

        That gives me more time to prep for something that can’t possibly be prepped for unless you are rich. [Serious on that one I’m afraid]

      14. Obviously the Federal Reserve is planning a collapse of the U.S. as soon as Israel is able to steal the rest of our military tech and when we are no longer a viable economy.

        The U.S. must be removed from the global economy before we can be collapsed.

        That’s why China and Russia must be destroyed with nuclear weapons before it can get to that point.

      15. Let’s do the math.

        There are approximately 330 million legal citizens.

        78 million ie 23.6 % are boomers.

        The youngest boomer is 50. 10,000 retire every day.

        59% of boomers support those who are 18-39 and this makes up a THIRD of Millennials.

        Now what happens in 15-17 years? In 15 years, the youngest boomer will be 65, but in 17 that is when they are projected to take retirement.

        How many are still working even at 72-77 who have to as they can’t afford to retire for various reasons like supporting a millennial?

        It gets worse in the New England states as they have a high proportion as does Florida and Montana. These areas will see earlier signs of cracking especially the Yankees due to population density and the high proportion of federal and state employees in technically bankrupt states.

        See the problems? If you broke down the demographics of how many boomers were in nursing homes in your state, and when a tide of state boomers will be entering nursing homes, then you could see how long your family has before the SHTF.

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