Many economists and financial analysts have said that the economy isn’t doing as well as the talking heads on TV are proclaiming. And now, even the Bank of America says it’s time to prepare for an even lower stock market, as that hasn’t come yet.
The recent stock market slide may look bad, but it wasn’t bad enough to indicate that the damage has been completely done, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch. That means it will only get worse as we have yet to hit “the big low.”
Even after a day when the Dow industrials lost 602 points and as the Nasdaq tech barometer remains in correction territory, indications of a bottom remain elusive, the bank said in its latest survey of professional investors. “We [Bank of America Merril Lynch] remain bearish, as investor positioning does not yet signal ‘The Big Low’ in asset markets,” Michael Hartnett, BofAML’s chief investment strategist, said in a statement.
The sharp decline that began in mid-October continues to chip away at the stock market and it’s causing some to put out warnings that we should be prepared for a crash. In such cases, Wall Street strategists look for signs that sellers are exhausted and the market has reached sufficiently low levels as to indicate a bottom. And the concerns are global.
According to NBC News, a net 44 percent of respondents see global growth decelerating over the next year, representing the worst outlook since November 2008. As part of that, a net 54 percent see China slowing down, which is the highest level of pessimism in two years. Global earnings growth expectations are at their lowest levels since June 2012.
A good number of investors continue to cite the trade war as the biggest risk to the overall economy and stock market, though they also are concerned about interest rate hikes from the Federal Reserve which will hugely impact the rising levels of corporate debt.
The November BofAML fund manager survey indicates both an increased allocation to U.S. stocks and a belief that domestic large caps will be among the worst performers in 2019.