This report was originally published by Tyler Durden at Zero Hedge
“This storm developing off the Southeast coast will meet the meteorological criteria of a ‘bomb’ as it rapidly intensifies. The signal for a storm has been evident since last week, but as the track has been fine-tuned, impacts to the I-95 corridor are now expected. Snow, strong winds, and very cold temperatures are expected particularly the further east one heads,” said Ed Vallee, meteorologist at Vallee Weather Consulting LLC.
Winter Storm Grayson, a very large and powerful winter storm, is threatening the East Coast of the United States with heavy snow, intense winds, and record-setting low temperatures. Winter storm watches and warnings have been issued for many coastal regions in north Florida to Maine from Wednesday into late Thursday.
This week’s storm may end up being worse than your average nor’easter, according to Bloomberg. It could produce a “bomb cyclone,” otherwise known as a bombogenesis, a phenomenon that occurs when a system’s central pressure drops steeply – 24 millibars or more – in 24 hours. If current computer models hold, that’ll start to happen somewhere off Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, and continue as the storm moves north. Hurricane-force wind warnings have been posted off the coast where ships could encounter winds of 80 miles (130 kilometers) an hour and waves as high as 26 feet on Thursday.
“The real apex, the peak of the storm, will be Cape Cod to Nova Scotia,” said Gregg Gallina, a forecaster at the U.S. Weather Prediction Center in College Park, Maryland.
Pressure and wind visualization of storm off the coast of New England on Thursday.
This particular storm, which is currently developing off the coast of Florida, will devour enough warm water that it could be considered a winter hurricane by the time it leaves the Mid-Atlantic coast late Wednesday.
All day Thursday meteorologists are going to be glued to the new GOES-East satellite watching a truly amazing extratopical "bomb" cyclone off New England coast. It will be massive — fill up entire Western Atlantic off U.S. East Coast. Pressure as low as Sandy & hurricane winds pic.twitter.com/6M4S3y75wT
— Ryan Maue | weather.us (@RyanMaue) January 2, 2018
The Weather Channel describes how a bombogenesis forms:
To be classified as a weather bomb, or having undergone bombogenesis or “bombing-out”, the central pressure of a low pressure system must drop at least 24 millibars within 24 hours.
Bombogenesis results when there is a large temperature gradient, usually between a cold continental air mass and warm sea-surface temperatures. However, it can also be the product of a cold polar air mass and much warmer air from the south, say, over the Plains states.
Over that temperature contrast, a powerful, intensifying jet-stream disturbance triggers air to rise and kicking off the bombogenesis process.
Frequently, Nor’easters are weather bombs due to cold air surging southward from Canada combined with the warm ocean waters of the Gulf Stream.
“Some computer models are projecting a minimum central air pressure of below 950 millibars at its peak, which would be nearly unheard of for this part of the world outside of a hurricane,” said Mashable’s Andrew Freedman. “For comparison, Hurricane Sandy had a minimum central pressure of about 946 millibars when it made its left hook into New Jersey in 2012.” By Thursday, the European model forecasts the storm to register at 946 millibars off the coast of Long Island, making it a rather intense storm on par with destructive hurricanes.
With the cold air in place ahead of the storm, winter storm watches and warnings have been issued from north Florida to Maine.
On its current track, the storm will scrape the East Coast and dump snow from South Carolina to Maine and into Canada, with Boston and parts of Maine bearing the brunt. Georgia Governor Nathan Deal has already declared a state of emergency for 28 counties. The weather stands to wreak havoc on markets for longer, as electricity prices have already surged to the highest level in years and natural gas demand hit a record high.
The Washington Post details the hazardous weather conditions expected to hit the East Coast:
The responsible storm is forecast to begin taking shape off the coast of Florida Wednesday, unloading hazardous snow and ice in highly unusual locations not accustomed to such weather. The National Weather Service has already posted winter storm watches from Lake City, Fla. to Norfolk
It is then expected to rapidly intensify, buffeting the Mid-Atlantic beaches and eastern New England, where winter storm watches have also been issued.
In Charleston, one to three inches of snow and sleet is forecast Wednesday, where the Weather Service warns to “plan on difficult travel conditions.” From Norfolk to the Maryland and Delaware beaches, including much of the southern half of the Delmarva Peninsula, 3 to 6 inches of heavy snow are predicted from Wednesday evening to Thursday afternoon.
The National Weather Service office serving northeast Florida and southeast Georgia cautions that a nasty mix of light freezing rain, light sleet and light snow is expected to develop Wednesday “with significant icing possible.”
Farther inland in the Mid-Atlantic, near Interstate 95, the storm’s exact track will be highly consequential. Current computer models suggest most, if not all, snowfall will occur east of Washington and Baltimore on Wednesday night into early Thursday. But small shifts to the west could bring some snow to these cities.
To the north, Philadelphia and New York have a better chance for a coating of snow, but — unless the storm edges closer to the coast — the more significant snow should remain to their east from Atlantic City to eastern Long Island, where at least four to six inches could fall late Wednesday to late Thursday.
By the time the storm reaches the ocean waters east of Long Island and eastern New England on Thursday, it will be explosively intensifying. The storm’s central pressure will have fallen 55 millibars in just 24 hours — an astonishing rate of intensification.
In Boston, the Weather Service is predicting not only four to seven inches of snow but also winds strong enough to bring down branches. Throughout eastern Massachusetts and eastern Maine, the combination of wind and snow could create blizzard conditions, especially if the storm wobbles west.
There’s a silver lining: The storm will offer some respite from the bone-rattling cold that triggered wind chill advisories and freeze warnings across the central U.S. and winter storm watches from Massachusetts to Florida on Tuesday.
But the relief will only be temporary as the Arctic chill is set to make a comeback by the end of the week. Temperatures will rise out of the teens and single digits from Philadelphia to Boston before slipping back again by Friday and Saturday.
The Weather Channel outlines the Snow potential:
- The best chance for significant accumulating snow along the U.S. coast is in eastern New England. This snow may be heavy and accompanied by strong winds.
- For now, lighter accumulations are expected from the New York City Tri-state area to the Delmarva Peninsula.
- Again, exact amounts will depend on the track of the low in relation to the East Coast.
- Heavy snow, possibly changing to rain in some locations, is likely in parts of Atlantic Canada (Nova Scotia, New Brunswick, Newfoundland) Thursday into Friday.
According to a StormHamster.com meteorologist tracking the trajectory the storm, here are the two scenarios:
- E-MD/E-PA/SE NY
As a result there is going to be a QPF drop out from around Virginia up towards Connecticut. Of course if we shift further west then we shift everything west but there will still be a dropout in that NW corner if you will. Be it DE/NJ/NYC or be it E-MD/E-PA/SE NY. Regardless of precise location of this storm and it’s heavier precipitation contours there has to be a drop out in north and west sections.
This system will become a hurricane force low. It is why you really do not want to see it come west like it has over time. I always felt the chance existed and now unfortunately not only here we are but with the potential to even pull it further west in time. These winds will cause widespread power outages. It has also been a no brainer that Nova Scotia was going to get absolutely smacked by this storm and they are in for it with this one no matter what we get precisely along the eastern US coastline. Unavoidable heavy hit for them.
What happens next could be devastating for the East Coast: “The whole troposphere is coming south and we will not avoid an intense cold snap lasting several days,” said StormHamster.com.
With the potential for power outages and extremely cold weather continuing in the on the East Coast through the weekend. This could be a storm to remember…
Finally, while neither Kim nor Trump has the red button to unleash this particular “bomb”, this is what the “bomb cyclone” will look like at is explodes over the East Coast in the coming days.
“This is only the appetizer – the main meal comes over the weekend,” said Judah Cohen, director of seasonal forecasting for Atmospheric and Environmental Research, a Verisk Analytics Inc. business in Lexington, Massachusetts. “This is about as intense a cold as I can remember.”
Meanwhile, meteorologist Paul Walker at AccuWeather said that the storm will probably cause blizzard conditions in New England and eastern Long Island as high winds accompany the snow. And then it gets worse again: Another round of bitterly cold air is forecast to blast across the U.S. by the middle of next week. The chill could linger through Jan. 16.
The storm is moving too fast to have any effect. Interesting this article does not note how fast it is moving.
Hurricanes usually move from 0 to 17 miles an hour. This one looks like it is moving at 40 miles an hour.
can we stop naming winter storms? seriously.
We should name them after nasty feminazis, like Hurricane Hillary, Pelosi, Reno, Boxer, Feinstain, and other butt fugly libtard women.
This is the exact same weather pattern that hit our area in 1989. It was awesome, I remember it being about 15 degrees in parts of the farm house I didn’t keep heated.
We are expecting 6 to 8 inches of snow and high winds. Just west of us is expecting up to a foot. The two counties east of me (Camden and Currituck) are under a blizzard warning starting at 4PM. The schools here in my county are already closed because of heating issues.
Mr. Stiner is wrong. It’s already been snowing in FL, GA, and SC, and will soon be snowing here in NC and into VA later this afternoon. This type of storm is how eastern NC gets its largest snowfalls.
Stay warm! And stay safe…
Nasty weather for sure
let her rip I ready for it. Power outages for sure. Or it could be just a whimper. I’ll see by evening here on the Delmarvalous Penninsula
PO’d Patriot, my cousin called me earlier and said it’s already snowing at the BOL. I knew I was right to leave there Monday. Had to come back to work and pay taxes to support the free shit army, etc. anyway.
The missus made two large stock pots of soup. One vegetable beef and the other chicken noodle. I’ve got all my emergency lights charged up, the tub will be filled with water to flush toilets and of course there’s the generator. I’ve got 4 30lb LP tanks, 2 40’s and 5 20’s all filled. If I don’t use them this time they’ll still be good for the next one. I’ve got beer, whiskey and plenty to eat. There are 3 four wheel drive vehicles in the driveway all gassed up plus a four wheeler. Now I got to call the old folks down in Tennessee to see how they’re fairing. Later-POP.
PO’d Patriot, if I was in your area I’d sure go for a bowl of veggie beef, one of my favorite soups. Good luck up there.
I just stocked up on veggies and chicken to make soup. I won’t be going anywhere for a few days; not because of snow only getting an inch but the wind is going to be blowing about 25mph and who knows how high the gusts will be.
Archivist, looks like I got back home from GA just in time. The region where my family are is already getting snow.
GLOBAL WARMING !!!! Ask Al Gore. Oops now it is climate change.
Maybe it is just another excuse for government to control every facet of ones life.
Oh my – lions and tigers and bears…. Wow, like it is winter people. You know – snow, ice, blizzards and school closings… the general mess. You’d think there was nothing else to worry about. Stay warm, dry and enjoy the season best you can.
if it hits the NE? GOOD!!!! freeze their sorry azzez!!!! I hope it freezes them solid!
Sorta like NY needing alahuackkbarricades now to prevent terrorist, hmmm, got anything to do with their stupid let em all in policy? Cant fix stupid, the left has the corner on dumbass
I read somewhere that people who went into the pens early for New Years Eve celebrations were not permitted to leave even to answer the call of nature. Don’t know if that was true. If so, what a bunch of nuts giving up everything for a bit of security for a few hours.
Sister in Boston,brother in Philly. Hope yhe grid holds up,but have my doubts
This is the coldest temps I’ve felt in central Florida in decades. Don’t know what the feels like temp is but the wind is howling. Happy New Year my butt. Improvements in weather modification technology?
Bread…check,beer…check.,tp…. double check. Bring it!
Jim, looks like Superstorm Sandy was a Sunday school picnic compared to this one. Hope everyone on the east coast is totally prepped for it.
Ready here. The Christmas windstorm with 115kmph gusts was an excellent rehearsal for this one – half the grid came down and i spent half the day babysitting fires from downed live powerlines! Hopefully the power co. did proper, strong repairs – even if they did, i’m still expecting the other half of the grid to topple tomorrow night! I really hope this one is strong enough to take down the trees that block my morning sunshine… Fingers crossed!
Looks like Nova Scotia has its game on. People were stocking up on gas today and the power company is bringing extra people in from Quebec in an effort to stay on top of things. The wind storm we had on Christmas Day, which took down half the grid, was an excellent warm-up exercise and most of the weaker trees came down during that one. Ground was frozen that day, too, though, so i’m expecting a lot more trees to come down when this beast barrels through due to the rapid thaw it’s bringing us!
Snow forecasts near me keep getting raised and lowered. I’m expecting a dusting.
The high winds that are expected are the big threat, the 4×4 is filled with gas, and I have topped off my stored gas to run the generator. High winds with record low temps mean trees and wires will come down. Being without power for an extended period in the dead of winter, is deadly.
Ok so today in the calm before the storm I serviced and ran the snowblower. Moved the mower and summer equipment to the back of the garage, after changing the oil and running them out of gasoline.
I moved the winter stuff to the front of the garage. Perhaps a good thing, the latest revision says 8 inches of snow with high winds causing severe drifting conditions. It’s supposedly going to start anytime now.
Did I ever say, winter sucks!
There is snow plows everywhere. Real new englaners aren’t pussies like the southern crybabies who can’t handle 1 inch. Balls deep snow is no thing up here. No matter how deep it gets it will be plowed and walls will be shoveled off and life will continue. Snow storms aren’t a new thing. Jeez neither is freezing temps. .
Where is fat al gores glowbull warming now? Its been colder than a well diggers ass in the Ozarks. One good thing porch monkeys don’t riot in cold weather.