HS Dent Forecast Update distributed Monday, October 12, 2009:
“…short term cycles tend to point down into November and then back up into late December or so. We are at a critical point here. Most stock markets are retesting the 9/23 highs. Gold is retesting recent highs and oil is retesting highs back to August. The dollar made a slight new low on Thursday and may have bottomed after a long trend down, but its rally hasn’t followed through yet. We may be seeing a major reversal in many markets and a possible top in the bear market rally in stocks. However, our technical indicators are not that overbought here and Lowrys analysis of buying and selling pressure does not argue for a top yet.”
Harry Dent provides two possible scenarios that may play out over the coming days/weeks/months.
- In scenario #1 we may see a minor correction in markets sometime in November, but overall, markets may continue “edging up”. According to Dent, there is a short-term cycle low possible in late January 2010. Prior to that short term cycle kicking in, the Dow Jones could reach the area of 11,300 between December and January.
- The other scenario is the more bearish one. We could see a strong correction in markets from the end of October into late November, then a bounce. Then a “larger downtrend” starting in January.
The overall trend for 2010 remains DOWN, as deflation should take hold once investors realize that the economy is not recovering as advertised.
This downward trend falls in line with the broader forecasts from our favorite contrarians, discussed in CAUTION: Crash/Collapse Dead Ahead Say Faber, Rogers, Dent and Celente.