In January of 1980 gold hit an all time historical high of $850. As the bubble popped, it subsequently fell to nearly $250 by the end of the 1980’s and continued in this price range for the next decade.
As the US government took on more debt, printed more dollars and began to lose the confidence of the global investing public, the price of gold began a meteoric rise, topping out at $1801 per ounce in August of 2011.
Analysts and financial pundits the world over have suggested that gold is in a bubble and a crash is imminent. While volatility will remain a constant for months and perhaps years to come, and gold may see significant price collapses, as it did in late 2008, the question of whether or not gold is actually in a bubble is debatable – at least in the mainstream.
Our view, which we have maintained for several years, is that gold is nowhere near a bubble, and is displaying none of the signs of an end to a bull cycle run.
In fact, if current events are truly to be described as the worst recession and economic crisis since the Great Depression, then chances are gold is going to explode even higher. The recession of the 1970’s was tough and lasted nearly a decade. Over this time period, gold rose and collapsed several times, dropping nearly 50% of its value in the mid 1970’s, and then once again resuming its price rise. Arguably, we are much worse off in terms of economic viability and growth than we were in the 70’s (and perhaps even the Great Depression).
With that in mind, we present to you the following chart sourced from Chart Works Ross Clark, Shadowstats, and Erste Group Research. Unlike other charts that we may have seen where the price of gold is adjusted for inflation, in the below graphic you’ll see gold charted from the standpoint of deflating its value with the SGS Shadowstats CPI alternative.
The takeaway? Gold would have to triple (at least) from where it is today just to reach the highs of January 1980.
As evidenced, we have yet to see the parabolic move that we saw from the late 1970’s into January of 1980.
Hold on to your gold. It’ll buy a lot more than just a nice suit in the (near) future.
Hat tip Daily Bail
Last line is the most important: Hold on to your gold. I really couldn’t recommend buying it now. Even silver is getting pretty pricey.
Besides, if the collapse is as bad as I think it’s going to be, you’ll be bartering with supplies & food, because the huddled masses are just smart enough to know you can’t eat metal and you can’t shoot anything with it either.
I’ve got some silver tucked away. I have a proportionately larger amount of food & ammo next to it.
And your an expert how?
I don’t think Mal indicated that he/she was an expert. They are just giving their opinion and what they personally do. No need to be RUDE.
Amen..
McFrolie: I think Mal is right. I think gold is a bit pricey here. I think it will remain flat for a little while with some consolidation before it picks up again.
While silver may go a bit higher here and a lot higher eventually, the ratio between gold and silver was disconnected a long time ago. If you can afford it back up the truck on either.
Anyone expecting that “historical norm” to reassert itself today is likely to get hosed. There is a new metal paradiam and silver is not a precious metal.
I do own a precious metals mine with silver and gold, however I do not consider myself an “expert”. Experts are like assholes; everybody knows one.
Mal’s opinion is as valid as anyones as forcasting market prices for anything is not a science. Having said that, my long time advice has been to speculate with silver, invest in gold, and horde your lead. That advice is as sound today as it was when I first gave it here last year.
BS in Finance/MS in Accounting/Six years of trading in fiat currencies. Is that good enough for you?
One of the hardest things to get a grip on is the true value of gold. The value is constant. What you’re seeing is the debasement of fiat currencies vs. gold. For many reasons, the price of (most) consumer goods hasn’t rocketed up as the money supply exploded. But the price of gold has. Therefore, you’re better off stockpiling food, water, guns and ammo vs. collecting shiny gold coins. The gold train left the station quite some time ago.
And… you can’t eat it… And you can’t shoot it.
And… we may be on a barter economy soon. If that happens, you’ll have more luck trading a few rounds of .22 LR for a loaf of bread than trading a quarter ounce of gold.
Just my opinion. If you want to corner the gold market after the SHTF, go ahead. I’ll be baking bread and shooting furry animals.
Cheers,
Mal
Mal, very well said. I’ve been aligned with this for a long time, in a post-SHTF scenario, gold has really very little value and is quite useless. Gold is, however, a good way to preserve wealth in a healthy economic environment.
For crisis preparation, you are always much better stocking now what you think you will need rather than planning on buying it when you need it. When you have reached satisfaction with your stockpile of necessities, invest your dollars in some form of monetary utility that will take the place of the dollar when it collapses. That utility is bullion silver.
Silver will be much easier to trade than gold. And don’t forget the lead.
Respectfully, I’m not sure the credentials you list (while very impressive) point towards any expertise in valuing gold in our current/unknown future situations. I agree that food and ammo are critical as first preps, but thousands of years of history suggest to me that precious metals may also prove quite useful in our future.
Here’s a question, and I hope someone reads this being almost a week late, but what happens AFTER the SHTF scenario. I have no doubt that it’s coming (a year? a decade?) but after the chaos wouldn’t gold preserve it’s value when we return to some kind of stable economic environment?
Say, for example, the US govt. as we know it goes down, hyper inflation, civil war, mad max, people flee to the woods/mountains etc, doesn’t matter what, but I’m assuming that if there is another government that it’ll have some kind of currency and wouldn’t gold transcend the transition between the two and preserve it’s value, thus preserving your wealth??
Prices have not gone up? Where do you shop exactly?
Prices on everything (food and gas especially) have gone up a lot – about proportional to gold.
Also the point in holding gold is that it doesn’t go bad. Try to keep food for 10 years and then try eating it. Yes food is ok to have for short term but you can’t keep your wealth in food…
By the way your credentials don’t mean much. I have the same as you down to the trading years number and instrument details and don’t consider myself anywhere near an expert.
The only expert I can think of at this point who is really worth anything is Jim Sinclair in this space.
Curious as to whether or not anyone can answer that question.
Simply, wouldn’t holding onto your PMs be a good way to store your wealth after the current currency fails and, should a new government arise, be a good way to acquire the new regime’s currency at whatever its going rate is?
You don’t need to be an expert to note that the risk-return ratio for silver is not as good as it was 6-7 years ago. It’s still a better buy than gold.
If you want an expert, subscribe to a newsletter.
When gold reaches $5,000 and silver $200, we’ll think today’s prices are cheap.
and if you’re going to be rude, please spell it correctly.
I think Seeds http://www.bereadytosurvive.com will be worth more than Gold… You cant eat Gold.
They’re still taking paper for it.
Imagine this near future:
I’m really hungry, but I can’t eat gold. No one has enough food, so the gold is worthless in buying my basic need for food.
In my right hand is the gold. In my left hand is a gun. What do I do..?
This comment was flagged for review.
I would love to see what could be a flagged item on this site.
Darth Vader didn’t show up at the old folks home so I had to sight my target somewhere else. My roommate is getting out of the hospital this week. You are hereby forewarned. The tag team is BACK!
HA ha–In your right hand is gold, left hand a gun.
Stick the gold up your ass and shoot yourself in the head.
The mainstream media is a bubble, the U.S. government is a bubble, Obama’s incessant lying is a bubble………..gold is not a bubble.
Gold is the money of the banskters. They have stolen the VAST majority of it, so when the people demand a gold standard one can be given.
As the controllers of the corp, the banksters are the main target in defeating it. In order to return to the common law, the gold they have stolen must be TAKEN BACK and returned to the people in the form of circulating coinage.
Til then, it matters not if there is a “gold backed” currency when the criminals still possess the gold.
You must be using someone else’s handle. Because you have changed. You use to have comments that were in the realm of reason. And understandable. Now you are just speaking to speak. While I will defend your right to do so. I prefer if you listen to self before you hit send. Because I believe you have spent to much time in the sun. And of course I am ready for your LONG reply.
It’s been said many times before:
Gold is the money of kings
Silver is the money of gentlemen
barter is the money of peasants
debt is the money of slaves
Is a shtf scenario – i’m going to go out on a limb and figure that once things settle down and become normalized commerce will return. Can’t see buying the yellow metal now as the funds would be better spent elsewhere. Looking for a good wood burning stove nearterm. Maybe adding another argh to the inventory and def a fotey fv. They don’t come cheap and i’m not a king, been told i’m not a gentleman either.
blood is the money of patriots
As once tried call an office at NYC, there was no reply. Me, myself and I simply assumed if nsa was any good they better listen.
There are few years of kripto-agony on states coming. Allways preparing for the worst, just in case the everybody else was wrigt. If you think you have 25k bullets, you are better of than silver. And than if as biz as usually there can’t possibly be barter, as Izraelis had hiperinflation in
1980ies and just fixed it. Inflation or no inflation is a political decision. If your leaders think you should be concerned you ought to, only had to move legal tenders faster around, actually stops before Zimbabve weithing, as
in states resolution naturaly comes faster, to prevent disaster as having a ben for groceries.
Please, take in consideration the folloving material is controversial and possibly allarming is actually sound simple.
If there are ups and downs, after India purchased 1kt gold, there was the point of no return. Soon enough, too soon for
sure anyway gold this year is 2k. psychic claim
The only ones talking of a gold bubble are mainstream shills whose job it is to support the fiat currency ponzi and to undermine gold at every opportunity. There is currently just under 1% of global assets allocated to gold which is in itself a relatively tiny market, bubble?? not even close.
CH: Good point. Central bankers around the globe will be buying much more of it over time. Individuals will be buying much more of it over time.
MAC is right its got a long way to go. Buy it on the dips if you can afford it.
If you can’t afford it by a metal detector instead.
Please don’t just look at the ‘spot price’ per oz. of gold; look at the ‘premiums’ that they are charging for delivery of physical gold.
When Greece first started to come ‘unglued’, the spot price was right at $1,500 per oz., but it would have cost you $1,700 + per oz. to acquire physical gold.
Check out the spot price – what online retailers are charging per oz. Don’t forget to figure in the shipping, handling and insurance; they are also a part of the premium.
Check out what it would cost you to acquire 1 oz. of gold if purchased in 1/10th oz. coins as opposed to buying a 1 oz. coin. That one will really blow your mind.
Bottom line? If you don’t already have PMs, it may be too late for the average individual with limited resources to acquire them. You may be better off purchasing firearms, ammo, drinking alcohol, etc. Things that will instantly acquire “high-value/high demand status” once things really head South. I wonder how many ounces of gold the man without a gun will be willing to trade for a Ruger 10/22 + 100 rounds of ammo once the SHTF?
Food for thought. God Bless and good luck to all.
and how much ammo will he go thru protecting his gold?
ammo could end up being worth more than gold to the average joe.
I just really have this feeling that most men with gold already have their Ruger 10/22 ( I’ve got 3 of ’em, 1 blue/2 stainless, and 25k rds of .22LR….on the lower tier of the “home armory” )and a WHOLE LOT MORE STUFF.
Now, there may be a few really rich folks in NYC or some such place as you describe, but heck, I ain’t ever gonna run into them anyway.
Most ‘gold’ is paper gold. There is something like 30 times as much paper gold that trades as actual, physical metal. Once you subtract out all the paper promises that will disappear in a puff of smoke along with all the OTHER paper promises, and get down to the folks that have a little gold and silver stuck away, you get to the really hard core prep folks.
You don’t need to worry about me coming to trade my gold for your rusty old .22 and a box of shells…..my gold is for acquiring land and other real assets for pennies on the dollar, and then hiring the laborers to work it….turning stored wealth into productive wealth.
OR my gold is stored wealth for old age….when I need a medical procedure that costs 100k today, before med insurance negotiates ‘discounts’, but handful of gold eagles will buy then. By the way, I’ve already “test driven” this theory….offered my dentist took a bullion (common date, and well worn) 1880 $10 eagle ( less than 1/2oz ) when gold was 1,000 FRNs for dental work that would have been 800 FRNs had I paid in paper…..and he was glad to do so.
I am guessing that it will be easier to trade a box of 22LR (50rounds) for food then an ounce of gold or even silver. I admit I have very little gold, but lots of silver. If the gold / silver ratio closed up some I might trade into some gold, but it’s not happening. Gold is protecting wealth in SHTF not really survival. I’ll stick with my legitimate land claims and holdings to preserve wealth.
Right on the money. Agreed.
That will never happen. Au has never been in a bubble. It’s only job is to just sit there and look pretty. Kind of like a pin up girl showing some of her secrets. Few understand her. Go out and buy just one and you will start to learn how to touch her.
As years ago noticed Japan and China are claiming sea for drilling is actually where Belgium forensic ispector wants me to beleive. Without him knowing actually.
I have been told that you can fill 2 olympic sized swimming pools with all the gold that exists in this world..and im sure the criminal Corp has as much of that as they can get their hands on , locked up and it will never see public holding.
the Corp will try to sieze as much of the “public” gold as they can..I wouldnt open my mouth to having any, if you do.
the Corp will also try as hard as they can to keep it from being a backer for any Fiat Currency..ie..our monoploly money.
the precieved value..VS the real world value of gold is 2 seperate things..and its all manipulated by THEM
at least this is how i see it, maybe im all wet..its just my slant on this
How can you have something a a store of value while being industrial necessity? The Roads Must Roll. Science Fiction.
Humor for the day…
Obama: I Reversed Recession Until ‘Bad Luck’ Hit
http://campaign2012.washingtonexaminer.com/blogs/beltway-confidential/obama-i-reversed-recession-until-bad-luck-hit
Video Claims That Obama is “much smarter” than all of us… LOL!!!
http://www.patriotactionnetwork.com/profiles/blog/show?id=2600775%3ABlogPost%3A5254797&xgs=1&xg_source=msg_share_post
Here is the delima I’ve been trying to work through for sometime now and perhaps some on here can assist me. I’ve got some PMs to sustain through a collapse along with other preps. I’ve read lots of posts/articles that support a return to a gold standard. My delima is I’ve also read much about history and the currency manipulation done by TPTB while on a gold standard. I’ve read a lot from Bill Still and he points to many periods of history (Tally Stick, Colonial Script, Greenbacks) were unbacked currency did very well as the QUANTITY was controlled. I have no doubt that the official US gold stocks are none existent and get the feeling (especially with the Wold Bank Pres coming online support a gold standard) that that may be exactly the end game the PTB are pressing for. With the cental banks in possession of most of the world supply of gold doesn’t that put them in a position to manipulate the quantity of currency in the future. Unless we remove the ability of the PTB to manipulate the quantity of money (boom bust cycle) and end fractional reserve banking any monetary system would seem subject to the same crap we have now. Can anyone provide more insight/counterpoints? Thanks. You can also e-mail me direct william dot menshew at us dot af dot mil.
I have a substantial supply of gold. I started long ago, when I first started reading Mac’s site. I did go a step further, though, and melted it all in bullet molds. I can now either peacefully trade or sell that gold in a crisis, or I can blow hippies’ heads off with solid gold bullets! I wonder if a hippie would feel proud to be blasted with a gold bullet. Sort of like an upscale Lone Ranger. Kill Kill Kill!!!
What cal? hp I hope.
Your comment reminds me of the ‘Legend of the Lost Golden Bullets Mine’.
http://members.shaw.ca/beyondnootka/articles/golden_bullets.html
Will gold bullets work on werewolves like silver bullets do?
EHK: You are one sick jarhead! Welcome to my world.
It is more like a Easy Riders, one told me once he cried watcing it.
Gold has a certain value value to it.It’s pretty to look at,lasts a long time,won’t rust and easy to carry,and other people like it too.Can’t eat it,wearing it is of limited value(esp.in COLD weather),and many times causes people to envy you(a whole set of problems which ensues).The ability to grow your own food in comparison,is priceless.You can eat it.store it against hard times(like now).Give to others(lowers the problem of envy).Share with friends and family.I like gold,I enjoy silver,but I get real Enjoyment out tending to my garden(even such as it is this year).PM’s are nice but limited in value except as to paper money.Just sayin’….
Best to All
GFG
GFG: How big are your tomatos?
They say SIZE doesn’t matter….ask me again nxt year;-)!!
LTR,
GFG
How small is your peach. Does it have fungibility.
Not sure what is wrong with all the anti gold and silver crowd. You cant eat it, you cant do this and that…. I think the best route is to have them all. Food, guns, ammo, gold, silver, land, seeds. Its just smart planning
A SHTF diversified portfolio.
I going to use that statement. Perfect
I for one am NOT against ownership of PM’s(it been going on for a few thousand years)just noting the limits to it value in difficult times as these.Having a diverse(but good supply)
of the necessities in balance IS a great idea…
LTR,
GFG
I have a real question that needs answered.
how is it going to be decided how much gold is worth when it comes to bartering? is it going to be between 2 people (the one with the gold and one with the food)? or is it going to be decided by a community? i mean is 25lbs. of flour worth 4 gold eagle coins? just asking and hear responses
“Is 25lbs of flour worth 4 gold eagles ? ”
Uh, not to me…..but then I have both.
What most of the “you can’t eat it” crowd are missing is they ASS_ume the world is going to get down to a situation where somebody would actually pay 4 eagles for a sack of flour.
That is NOT what the last 100 years of history says.
It says MOST LIKELY there will continue to be a long, slow decline in the value paper money ( as per their plan ), and by the time you get old, any savings you have won’t buy anywhere close to what they would today. That’s the plan….to slowly steal whatever you’ve managed to save over the years thru inflation.
THAT IS WHY YOU BUY GOLD…but if you aren’t saving any money anyway, the whole point is moot. Keep on relying on SS and Medicare…..see how that works out for ya’ll.
As I mentioned I don’t own much gold. I have a near one ounce coin from Mexico, two really old $2.50 coins from the US and that is it. Will I buy another ounce or two – maybe – if my neighbors stop selling me their land and I have enough money. The neighbors keep contacting me telling me they want to sell – so I buy up the parcels and am happy. I digress.
The “can’t eat it” crowd is almost universally made up of people like me that don’t have it. Of course you can’t eat it, but you can use it to buy land, buy a decent solar array, or maybe a diesel distiller? Who determines what it is worth when the world as we know it has ended – the person who has it and the person who wants it – they alone make that determination.
Silver coins (dimes, quarthers, etc pre 64) will be a barter item like ammunition will be. That is what people will use for food and small items. Gold will be used for the big ticket items (land, vehicles, generators, etc). I’m not sure why those who know you can’t eat gold don’t see value in that?
No one can actually know.. but my opinion ( worth about as much as it is costing you ) would be that the “value” of anything would be determined by the parties wanting to trade. I definately agree with TnAndy’s sentiment about the slow decline rather than an abrupt end. If the SHTF in any “really major” way ( MadMax type of way ), gold and silver would have almost no value.. if it was a slow decline or a limited SHTF event; both would retain value and probably increase in value based on the “normalcy bias” that would still exist in a limited event scenario.
There is a a note about 50% better radioactive decay efficiency while using Manhattan projects tests and put away. They found this nuclear catalyst hugest boom ever.
For crash and burn investors: as you might be bartering on a bazar: Bosnia round 94, 5 cigaretes inflation adjusted would today be worth one euro.
I watched an old WW2 survivor from eastern Europe tell a TV talking head, “when you are trying to escape from communists, even border guards understand gold coins”. If that is not enough reason to have gold, what is? To get a look at the future of your country, go to borderlandbeat.com everyday. Lock and load!
Same story could be repeated over dozen different countries and times in the last century. Gold bought a chance at a better life. If you plan on running ( I don’t ), best if lot of your ‘preps’ were in highly sought after, liquid wealth that takes up very little space or weight.
Natural law of supply & demand is never wrong.
We buy gold. (idiots welcome)
As fun as it will be to watch gold turn into a rocket, it will be unnerving knowing that Washington (especially the democrats) will want to grab it or at least make it illegal to sell for a nice profit.
I’m still going to hold onto it, since paper is on thin ice.
Dave: Paper may be on thin ice, but Mushroom may be closer to the truth than we usually give him credit, for advising US to tuck those $10 bills into #10 cans.
The real worry is not inflation, or a recession, or a depression; but a deflationary spiral that would plunge the world into chaos.
Demand is on a dowmward tracjectory. Inventories have increased for the 18th month in a row, the consumer’s who are broke have stopped spending, the consumers with money are cautious about spending it.
As government workers are released at every level to ease the pressure on the states, more unemployed are added to the roles, increasing anxiety, diminishing demand, and further contracting the economy. It creates a vicious cycle and downward spiral that can only be arrested by government spending on infrastucture putting people back to work ala FDR.
Not a rosy picture and not one that will be popular here, but that is the danger unless consumption picks up before the end of the year.
I would rather have people working under government contract with the government printing money and getting it into the hands of the people than see flash mobs, worker unrest, and civil war.
Clearly the economy will not change unless consumer psychology changes first. That may not happen until after a new president takes office.
The question then is: “Can WE muddle along until then?”
And here is a REALLY ugly thought: Paul Klugman may be right.
DK:
Agree with most of what you post here… But not this one. Paul Krugman is an idiot. And government work projects do nothing to stimulate an economy. We just blew $800 billion on TARP and we got higher unemployment and more debt. The economy can only rebound if government lowers taxes, reduces regulation and quits spending so much f*ing money. In other words, government IS the problem. Create a business friendly atmosphere and the private sector will take care of the rest. At the beginning of the 20th century, the U.S. had the smallest federal government amongst industrialized nations and it also had the HIGHEST per capita income.
Just something to chew on.
Mal
Mal: Yeah, I know all that and agree. The first $800 billion went directly to the GB’s. The second $800 billion went to government hiring. The next (QE2) went to the banks to cover more losses. And then there were $16 trillion in loans to our friends so they could buy treasuries with the Arbitrage and pocket the profit.
But I am thinking “What If?” What if consumer psychology doesn’t turn around. What if spending and lending do not increase? What if consumption continues to erode as people only buy necessities? I think there is a real danger of a global downward spiral that feeds upon itself and picks up momentum.
Even if you cut taxes businesses will not invest if inventories continue to grow due to lack of demand. Not only that but they will lay off workers exacerbating the problem and deepening the cycle, until collapse occurs or Krugman economics grips the nation. That is what I am talking about.
Right now it seems to me that WE are on the edge and it could tip either way and I don’t know how much time WE have under the current consumer psychology. Can we muddle through for two more years before the optimism and the policies of a new President take hold?
I am not so sure WE can.
Mal: I think we have somewhere between 18 months and 5 years. Why? Because of the inertia of such large systems and the inability of the average citizen to fundamentally change their patterns of thought. For events to get really bad, certain things have to take place. Bond markets would have to fail, not just here but internationally, confidence in currencies would collapse, a mild-to-medium breakdown of civil order would occur. Gold and silver would go sky-high ($3000-$8000/oz.), inflation would turn into hyperinflation and these events are the expected, better scenario. If it hangs on and the supply chain breaks down in a big way, winter comes along and people start starving all around the world, not just here. This is the point where gold fails in the medium term as an effective store of wealth. Which isn’t to say people won’t starve here, too – just not so many or so long. I think that things will arrest before we plunge off the cliff, but I’m an optimist.
Why do people fear deflation? That’s the presstitutes filling peoples’ heads with nonsense. The US had a 20 year period of deflation in the late 1800 and it coincided with the greatest increase in living standards the country had ever experienced. Wouldn’t you rather pay less money for the things you need?
Besides, if the UN population predictions are to be accepted as plausible, then the world population could be at 10.5 billion in another 20 years meaning explosive demand for all things, especially food and fresh water.
There will need to be a medium of exchange because barter is too inefficient so I am personally buying all the ‘scrap’ silver I can get so my family can survive when the SHTF. I also have my survival garden and a couple hundred pounds of rice.
Rockeconomics: People fear deflation because WE are experiencing deflation in the housing markets and the amount they owe is, in many cases, much more than the value of their home, meaning that deflation is a destroyer of wealth.
Additionally as they lose their jobs they have no money to meet their needs, so it doesn’t matter if things cost less. If you do not have money to buy anything, it doesn’t matter what anything costs.
I don’t think anyone can compare the economy of the 1880’s to the economy of the present day as people in much of the nation then, went to the woods or the prairies and killed their own meat, raised their own food,etc.
Farmer markets and butchers were everywhere and the meat was fresh. People in in the cities went to the market everyday to buy their food. There was no refrigeration.
This was also the period of the great westward expansion and the civilization of the west. Inflation and deflation as WE know them today, I suspect, affected the bankers and very affluent, but not the average family as they produced their own food and had a milk cow.
Understand also that this was the era of the Robber Barons who were manipulating all financial activity from stock prices to mining shares and the development of the railroads etc. They needed cheap raw materials for the industrialization of America.
They got cheap raw materials.
Deflation generally means that there is too little money chasing too few goods and services. In a post industrial 21st century America, a deflationary spiral would be the ugliest of economic experiences for US as the sophisticated society We live in would be transported in time back to those days. As jobs would continue to disappear, money would dry up, and sarcity would prevail.
The problem is that people for the most part, do not grow their own food and do not have a milk cow in the back yard.
Such a deflationary spiral would affect the poor all over the world who live in cities and primarily in apartments. Sprouts in window boxes is not going to feed billions of poor people.
What do THEY do? Fill in the blanks: _____ ____ _____ ____
Based on the hysteria being displayed by the media over Rick Perry’s comments regarding Bernanke, I would say we are closer to the beginning of Gold’s run than the end. While I have not converted any of my fiat dollars to gold since the bankers took all my fiat dollars and I thus have none to lose, those with the resources should be getting out of fiat as fast as they can.
http://dont-tread-on.me/can-you-feel-it-coming/
I always thought an interesting calculation was…
“How much value in gold can you carry (on your back, in your arms, with your hands, by yourself, etc) 5 miles?”
Go to borderlandbeat.com everyday to see what your country will become if you don’t secure the border. Also, millions of people from all over the world visit the US via airplane every year. About 1 million of them never leave. Add 1 million legal immigrants every year. Can you say, depleted resources, over crowding, and violence?
Rumor on the street is that silver is what you should be watching right now. The gold-silver ratio is off and silver needs to rise in value to adjust to it.
I saw this article today but I had heard about this last week & took action. Bough a bunch of silver and yes, it has gone up in value already.
http://www.survivalblog.com/2011/08/some_observations_on_the_preci.html
Personally, I think they are both going to continue to skyrocket. I just don’t see how they couldn’t – as the markets slowly collapse.
Well its easier for me to like silver over gold because I own a lot of silver – always liked it – so I have bunches. This argument about the gold/silver ratio though is losing favor with me – its been out of “wack” for more then a couple of decades now. When gold fell to $250 silver fell to $5. 50/1. Yet we get these analyst that think it should be 30 to 1 or even less. When silver just barely hit $50 and gold was hitting $1,500 a few months back we got to the 30 to 1 but it didn’t hold. Silver fell back to 37.50/40.00 and gold held in the mid to low 1,400’s.
These folks that seem to think 15 or 20 to one should be the reality – it just hasn’t happened in a long long time.
Depends on whether I change out the dagger lead keel and rudder.
I have yet to see anyone from the “you can’t eat gold” crowd make a sandwich out of Federal Reserve Notes.
For those who may not know it, Happy Birthday is in order.. our current, completly unbacked and unsupported currency is 40 years old today. The option for gold exchange was “temporarily” cancelled 40 years ago.. today.
Which killed Elvis exactly 6 years later.
Didn’t he die on the porcelain king from a drug OD.
England Dan told me everything that glitters is not gold and I believe him. Can’t remember what he said about silver…
That’s not true. Gold’s inflation-adjusted peak is about $2100-$2200.
http://www.usatoday.com/money/markets/2008-01-08-gold-prices_N.htm
“When adjusted for inflation, however, gold remains far short of its all-time high. An ounce of gold at $875 in 1980 would be worth $2,115 to $2,200 today.”
Bill, it is my understanding that The 2000 – 2500 price range is based on official CPI… Using shadowstats alternative the price would be significantly higher, and using figures that account for monetary expansion we approach the $25,000 per ounce range.whatever the case, it’s going to be higher than it is today, and that is not even taking into consideration the bubble buying that will happen in the late stages.
…
Repeat after me!
#10 cans, crisp $10 bills
#10 cans, crisp $10 bills
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Lemmeeseenow, where was I?
Oh, yea
—
#10 cans, crisp $10 bills
#10 cans, crisp $10 bills
mushroom
…
I’ve encountered a problem here. I purchased a bunch of #10 cans, but had to use my crisp $10 bills to do so. You make it sound so easy…
Given that I have spent all my money on #10 cans, can you give me a bailout so I may fill them?
Gold $1785 ! Silver $40 ! and climbing !
only (4 each) $10 crisp bills for a 1 oz Silver Eagle ! what a deal…
I smell something too.
The Rock is cooking……..
Better yet, buy trademark silver and save a couple bucks.
In 70ies brothers were watching over whole train of silver.
Yet they almost had it. Gold per gram. To little to buy.
Maple leafs 3 of them. For starters asap.
Joe,
You forgot the premium on silver eagles…..cough up most of another 5 buck note to pay that.
and each of those $10 crisp bills are only worth $0.7345 making you buying the $40 dollar silver for ahhh $29.38 of fiat money.
What to have everyones personal income tax lower, pay off the national debt, make America the #1 economy in the world again. Here is the plan:
1) Pay off the national debt with debt free U.S. notes — printed by the Treasury
2) Abolish fractional reserve banking
3) Repeal the Fed Res Act (1913) and National Bank Act (1964)
4) Withdrawl the U.S. from the IMF, BIS and World Bank
5) Get US out of UN and UN out of US
First is about wright. Third too.
Not only are PMs extremely depressed right now, but the bubble we are about to enter into will likely be BIGGER than the 1979-1980 bubble because we are pretty much in an inescapable situation now. Don’t listen to all the people out there who say that the Dow/Gold ratio needs to be at 1:1 or gold has to go to $6,000 an ounce, etc before you sell. Just watch the sheep. Whatever they do, you do the opposite. If gold is trading at $10,000 an ounce and you still don’t know anyone who owns some then you should keep buying IMO. Weimar saw gold go into the billions and Zimbabwe saw it go into the trillions.
“Pretty soon everyone will own gold, then I’ll know it’s time to sell.” – Jim Rogers
Schaef: At that point Jim would finally be wrong. Everyone needs to hold some gold and/or silver as a store of value THROUGH the Changes regardless of price.
Jim is a very bright guy but earth changes that are coming upon this planet in our lifetime is not something he thinks about. At least if he does, I would be very surprised to hear it.
I am sure you understand that it will take a very long time before “everyone” owns gold. Globally, the market has barely been penetrated. Gold has a long, long ride ahead of it, just not parabolic.
You will lose DK when the fiat changes and values you out. I don’t think you should everrrrrr sell it all but most will be made by the early bloomers that purchased when it was cheeeeap and sell at the peak. Nobody knows where the top will be but it will be repriced at the end. They hold the rules so it will not be THROUGH the Changes. We will never go back to physical gold backed money, not even after a WW. “Everyone” will never own.
ANON: I don’t think I will lose because I aligned my financial future with the actions and intents of the gangster banksters, which hae been quite visible for some time.
I sell my metal for those crisp new $10 bills because I have more metal to mine. I have anticipated double digit inflation as currency parity is pursued by the PTB and I will sell metal if I need cash. If I didn’t have more metal to mine I would hold it for the store of value it is after completing my preps.
I agree Schaef, Rogers didn’t literally mean “everybody”, but gold is global in nature and the global market hasn’t begun to be penetrated, percentage wise. And that doesn’t include the additional purchases by the central banksters that will also continue. If it goes parabolic yeah, thats mania,sell.
I don’t think he literally meant “everyone”, but it was more like a “most people you know” kind of a thing, like real estate was 5-6 years ago. What earth changes are you referring to? Is this 2012 stuff?
Schaef: Not 2012 particularly, but that is a curious phenomena in and of itself, as it does represent Timeline Zero.
I would never put a date on it but here are a couple of scientific facts that you can confirm. NASA, Livermore Labs, and the University of Arizona among others are studying earth changes, including the redistribution of mass and gravity that IS taking place within the earth.
In particular there is a massive magnetic anomaly that has developed in the South Atlantic Ocean, EXACTLY where Edgar Cayce said the new south pole would be after a Pole Shift, more than 70 years ago. There was no anomaly then. There is one now.
Co-incidence? Call me crazy if you want. I don’t think so.
Here’s a link to get your own investigation STARTED,
http://shtfearthchanges.blogspot.com/
All that is gold does not glitter
Not all those who wander are lost
The old that is strong does not wither
Deep roots are not reached by the frost.
Amnesty for invaders will come soon. It will be the last amnesty. The US will be no more after that. If you can find an American Indian, ask them how unrestricted immigration worked out for their nation.
Cortez: Amnesty equals civil war. Almost 70% of Americans do not want amnesty. Amnesty is illegal. The President and/or congress do not have the power under the Constitution for Amnesty.
Any politician who pushes for or votes for “Amnesty” will likely find themselves “targeted” by patriots.
As for the Indians, are you talking about those “free trade zones” that they established in America and allowed to be populated by Europeans?
The Indians were assimilated to the brink of extinction. We’ve already had at least one amnesty and no civil war. We too will be be absorbed if we don’t defeat the commies and globalists.
Greetings Everyone!!!
All I can say is wow!
Touch a nerve and people get touchy!!!
As I’ve said in the past,I’ll say again what my Grandfather said:A small bag of Gold(to start over with if the SHTF really hard and fast)and 2x bags of Silver of the paper bankers money goes “funny”.I have no illusions that Gold will hit $2500-$3000(said by others before me)Silver no doubt not far behind.Bell peppers at $3.00 for three at Aldi’s(the lowest cost store around here)is quite the accurate barometer for how the paper money is losing value.When THEY have a “conversion” table for PM’s at that store,we’re really hitting bottom….
It COULD Happen!!
Best to All
GFG
P.S.
I’m expanding my group of OASOLM(Odds and Sods of Like-mindedness).You got yours?
I got mine.
LTR
This article seems to have a logical flaw. It makes no sense to talk about the price of gold indexed for inflation as that is exactly what gold is.
Gold is a store of value and if 10 percent more moey is printed then the gold price should go up in similar fashion… Exactly what we’ve been seeing.
But you can’t go back again and say hey inflation for the pasy year was 10 percent… We need to add another 10 percent to the price of gold. The present price of gold already reflects that inflation.
I think this is a dangerous logical error that could get people in a lot of trouble re unrealistic expectations.
A bubble is a period where demand causes prices to rise and then demand goes away and prices fall. Tech stocks, real estate etc. Today’s gold demand is fueled by global economic uncertainty. Europe, US and even China worries. Demand (and gold prices) will fall when that uncertianty (fear) becomes reduced. Now ask your self what future situation can reduce that uncertianty, and what can cause that situation to actually happen and how likely and when will that happen? After you do that exercise you will conclued we are in for a long period of uncertianty,because you can’t think of anything positive that’s in our near furture. Line up 100 investors and how many today are buying gold ? 1-2% maybe. As uncertianty (fear) spreads to a greater number of people, demand will increase. When everyone at work is talking about buying gold and there’s a Golden Bull on the cover of Time magazine…that will be the time to sell. Probably not before.
Wouldn’t it be safe to say that even in the event of a financial apocalypse. That a. The apocalyse won’t last forever. b. Some form of currency will be needed to sustain an economy afterwords? What would one need to barter to get a group of people to build a home? Only the home owner would benefit.
I have freeze dried food and the works but at some point the people with gold/silver will win.
Exactly. The collapse is not the end of time. It is a period of extreme hardship, that will end at some time. Sooner rather than later, because there are people that can rise to the top and fix this after the politicians get out of the way.
While I understand the point about “you can’t eat metal or shoot anything with it either,” people will still rely on gold and silver as currency. Even in the worse situations gold will buy food, medicine and other supplies. The man with the most gold and silver will be well off in extremely hard times.
What is a current multi millionare with, lets say 200 ounces of gold, going to do with it after SHTF? I can see having a few ounces, and I think it’d be ideal to trade for essentials like land, vehicles, generators, solar systems, diesel distillers, etc…..but what is a current millionare going to do with his 200 ounces? My guess is hire bodyguards…..
Jim; gold has been a store of value for 5-6,000 years, maybe more. A multimillionaire with 200 or more oz of gold will sit on it, or pass it on to his children because he probably already has all of the other preps he needs.
Eventually metal will become a medium of exchange again, Civilization will go on and gold and silver will have their place in it.
I doubt that We will go back to using sea shells for money. Money is efficient for trade, and banking will exist even after the SHTF. After all, its the second oldest profession in the world. Both I suspect will continue.
“hire bodyguards”…
Well, what’s wrong with that ?
I already have land, generators, solar system, and so on…..what I don’t have is HELP. So if they are willing to do general farm work, tote a pistol/rifle, and work for a REAL ‘dollar a day and found’ like ranch hands of the old days, that’s a dang good reason for stocking a pile of metal.
Purchase a large boat with a dozen spirited/talented women that are self employed and motor out to international waters and start business. Well, just saying…
A multimillionaire and only has 200 ounces ? Wow…things must be tough in The Hamptons.
I’ve been a self employed construction worker with a school teacher wife ( and in a rural area where the pay AIN’T that great ), and I’ve managed to accumulate more than 200oz over the last 20 years…..and 25x that much silver….along with a boatload of preps……what was that millionaire fellow spending his on ?
One thing that PM’s will do…..
Go ahead stock up on food and other necessities…but the supply you have will only be limited in the “armaggedon” scenario. What then ?
Preserve your wealth and your purchasing power…that’s what PM’s do. Measure gold not in $$$$….but in the loss of the purchasing power of the paper money that you have.
INFLATION is the thief AND the monetary system we all use promotes theft by stealth.
Forget a GOLD standard….it will never happen…govt’s and CB’s worked it out a long time ago….GOLD standards are far too limiting for National growth/expansion.
Words of caution……buy (PM’s) only what you can afford to keep as surety for your ongoing livelihood. The bull will eventually fail…..(sic some time away yet).
Mac,
If you read this posting I would like to suggest that you present an article for all the ill informed people on here that say “you can’t eat gold” as a reason to not own any. I guess these folks, God bless them, just don’t have any excess savings over and above their basic food, gun, and ammo supplies. For those preppers that have sufficent monies to buy food, guns, ammo, and still have money left over, gold and silver are about the only two sure investment options available right now.
Maybe you can enlighten these people.
The issue is not the price of gold or silver. The issue is what you are using to measure it… the dollar.
The problem with many discussions on money & investing is that we tend to measure things in dollars. This is fundamentally flawed because the value of the dollar fluctuates (in fact, most often declines). It’s the reason milk costs more than it did in 1960 – not because milk is any more valuable… it’s because the dollar we’re using to purchase it is less valuable.
But consider this… when something is undervalued (like gold & silver currently are), the prices go up faster than other things. Buying gold now buys you more stuff later.
To take an example from Mike Maloney’s book (off the top of my head, so forgive me for any mistakes in it): In 1971 the median price of a home in the US was $20K. 9 years later in 1980 it was $40K. Looks pretty good right? If you bought a home in 1971, you doubled your money by 1980. HOWEVER… If, instead of buying a home in 1971, you bought $20K worth of silver, then by 1980 you could buy 18 homes.
In hyperinflation, this will be even more impressive.
Gold and silver have been money for 5000 years. You can’t eat it, but you sure can buy a lot of food, farm land, or ammo (if the SHTF) with it … OR… if this economic mess blows over (not), then you can buy investments with it.
shift your timing of the purchase of the silver and the purchase of the home just a few years and what could you have bought 1/10 of a home? It is all a cycle, the average commodities cycle is 18-20 years so we are much closer to the peak than the valley on this one. The average human will be lucky to live through two of these cycles and only be in a position to be on the “right side” of the cycle only once in his productive lifetime unless he inherits the position. if they have played their cards right they will benefit, if not, they will wait 20 years for another try and then likely not live long enough to enjoy the spoils. If you were acquiring gold from 1945 to 1970 you were losing purchasing power all the way, if you were buying gold through the 1970’s and did not sell it by 1983 you spent the next 17 years losing purchasing power in the economy. We have been 10 years running up the price of gold and now it is coming to the “fever pitch” stage. If you are holding it, the “value” of the gold will need to be converted back to a transactable currency to put into productive use. It is 1970 -1982 all over again.. Gloom and doom with no light at the end of the tunnel and the American economy wrecked and the “value” of the dollar wrecked. I think things turned out quite well up to this point 30 yrs hence. Never had to shoot any hippies, or eat my gold, I can still buy bread, milk, eggs, seeds, meat, fruit, gas, clothes and more at a much higher quality level and more convieniently too. The S already HTF and it is being put back in the box as we all sit here an wring our hands and await armegeddon, silly humans, or maybe baa baaa sheep..
“you can’t eat gold”
And you don’t store wealth with Philly Cheese Steaks:-)
I don’t know of a better response than that. Stuff has a particular function. Golds function is to store wealth. The confusion comes in because people THINK that money is used to store wealth. It isn’t! Money is used as a medium of exchange, but it is not a store of wealth. Those two uses are NOT the same, but are often confused. Use money to make transactions, use gold to store wealth.
Dboy
Money in the US is fiat dollars.
We are told that these are good for all debts public and private, not what they are worth.
The market determines what they are worth.
Unfortunately the number of fiat dollars to buy gold is getting greater.
Does this say that the value of dollars are increasing or that the value of gold is increasing?
When the number of dollars increases, the price of EVERYTHING else increases.
The next question is who can decide the number of dollars in the system?
The ultimate question might be, can the number of ounces of gold *easily* match the increased number of dollars in the system?
Put it all together.
Which do you want to hold: Gold or Dollars?
the US GVMT IS THE BIGGEST GOLD HOLDER OF ALL IN THE
WORLD SO WE CAN DO ANYTHING WE WANT WITH THAT.PERIOD.