Martin Armstrong, former Chairman of Pricenton Economics, discusses The Sum of All Fears: A Great Depression. Armstrong provides historical data, charts and a forward looking forecast.
“Those who always talk doom & gloom know not of what they are saying. Even Mr. Ben Bernanke’s claim that the bailout of the investment banks (speculators) like Goldman and AIG, were somehow necessary to prevent a Great Depression, was just bullshit. If he really believed that, then he should resign for he doesn’t know half of what he claims about the Great Depression. It was not bailing out the speculators that would have prevented the Great Depression. It was a debt default by Europe and South America that wiped out whatever the stock market failed to get. Stocks can crash, but it is debt that creates depression when it defaults.”
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“The stock market will NOT be a leading indicator that the worst is over. For you are about to experience the second phase shift that often appears in a Private Wave. This will be the shift from immovable investment to the movable that has taken place even back in the Roman times during the 3rd century.
If we approach this idea of what constitutes a Depression by simply the one-dimensional view that the stock market is everything, you will end up in a gutter drinking rain water. This is just not how things work. People look at the stock market because it is tangible and easily quoted. Real Estate, for example, is not anything like stocks. One building or home is not the identical value of another. Where it is located is just as important as the structure itself.
Even the figures we are looking at reported around the world that 25% of homes are worth less than the mortgage, this is only a very superficial market-to-the-market. It does not reflect homes with paid down mortgages or those whose mortgages may have but a decade left and the decline in value is perceived savings.
The crash is far from over and we should expect this number to rise to about 72%. This will still exclude non-mortgaged properties. This will lead to serious bank problems that all the bailout money went to the speculators like Goldman Sachs. What is coming behind this, is the dwarfing of the S&L Crisis that was just a dress rehearsal for today.”
As has been mentioned in previous articles, posts and commentary, we are experiencing one of the largest (if not the largest) credit/debt collapses in history. Once nations start defaulting on their loans it will be very apparent, very quickly, that this is no ordinary recession. We may very well be one of those nations.
No doubt the worst is yet to come. Gerald Celente coined it as “The Greatest Depression”. I agree with what just about every major forecaster predicts (Jim Rogers, Peter Schiff, Marc Faber, Ron Paul, Karl Denninger, etc). I do agree that the U.S. Dollar is toast. But as the nations crumble Dubai, Greece, Spain, Britain… won’t we see a similar trend as we did with Dubai as they will all rush to the Greenback for safety?
Of course I do not see the rationale behind that move as all fiat currency is the problem. I do see a serious crisis ahead for the United States, I just can’t help but think flight to safety from these other countries will prolong the pain we feel here in the U.S.
I want this Greatest Depression to hit hard and hit hard soon! I am a young guy. With all this stimulus, ultra low interest rates, regulation, growth of government, etc, etc etc. I will have no future here in America. It will be like the lost generation of Japan. That is why i want the SHTF already. As Peter Schiff rightfully says, “It’s not the boom, it is the bust that is the cure”.
Anyways, just my thoughts. Great site! I check back multiple times per day!
Brian, thanks for the nice comments :)Â
You make an excellent point for why you want to see it hard and soon. If you’re in your 20’s, then perhaps some time in your 30’s we’ll be coming out of this thing. The way things are going, there is no future in America for anyone! In a decade, there will be no middle class… This will be wiped out by a collapsing dollar, little or no work, low wages for whatever work there is, high prices for whatever goods there are, and heavy taxation for anything that’s left.
I do hope that we can come out of a depression-like event in a decade, but honestly…. I wouldn’t bank on it. These cyclical trends could be multi-generational… And if we are in a debt collapse similar to that of Rome, we could pretty much be in the shit for the rest of our lives. I hate to be a pessimist here — but it’s been 20 years in Japan… and it could be another 5 – 10 years before they get their sh%t together… so, for some, they were in their 20’s and spent the majority of their life living through it. The benefit the Japanese had is productive capacity, which we have very little of.
If we don’t get it together in this country, is it possible we could go Third World? I am asking in all seriousness… Â
Though, I do think this is unlikely, isn’t it possible? Could it really get that bad?
Perhaps we’ll be able to answer that question in about 30 years or so, and hopefully the answer will be a resounding NO.
As I’ve opined here before, I with you, Brian. The longer this charade goes on, the worse it will be when the S does HTF.
Might I suggest a song?
haha. classic
Hey Brian, I am with you. Can’t wait for it to get started so maybe we can have some semblance of a real economy/life in 10-20 years. But I wouldn’t bank on it. The powers that be seem hell bent on preserving the status-quo for as long as possible, for what ends I have no idea. Perhaps it just takes several years for the wealthy to get all their ducks in a row?
I feel the time coming soon however. I have already explained to my wife that in this system, I have already made my maximum inflation-adjusted salary. There is no better than what I can do now, a sobering fact for someone who got a masters degree in electrical engineering and is only in his mid 30’s. But that’s reality. And as I listen to the morons spout green shoots and jobless recovery on the idiot box, I can only dream of a better life as I choke back the resurging vomit.