Warren says “Expect 50% and 60% Default Rates On Commercial Real Estate Mortgages”

by | Aug 13, 2009 | Headline News | 5 comments

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    No, not that Warren. We’re talking about Elizabeth Warren, the chairwoman for the Congressional Oversight Panel (COP) established by law in the TARP legislation to oversee the US banking bailout. She may not be the billionare and financier, but ignoring her may prove to be a death blow to your wealth.

    Ms. Warren is a Hardvard Law Professor who was recently named Time Magazine’s 100 Most Influential People in the World. Some of you may also recognize her from the documentary Maxed Out, where she discussed, among other things,  the dangers of predatory-style lending practices in the credit card industry.

    Elizabeth Warren was appointed to COP by Senate majority leader Henry Reid. The banking numbers Ms. Warren and her panel are looking at suggest that, not only are the toxic assets cited for the $750 Billion bailout last year still on the books at the banks, but a new wave of defaults is coming, and this time it will be in commercial real estate.  We heard this from a variety of analysts and commentators, including Gerald Celente, Bob Chapman and Peter Schiff . As Celente put it, “You’re going to have a commercial real estate collapse that is going to dwarf the sub prime problem.”

    In addition to the CRE time bomb, set to detonate starting right about now, Ms. Warren says that we are still running the economy the same way as before the last bubble burst and that trying to reinflate a new bubble will fix nothing. We’re basically trying to build a new bomb, because the last one exploded.

    Thanks to Rick for pointing us to Zero Hedge and Shanky’s Tech Blog

    Visit msnbc.com for Breaking News, World News, and News about the Economy

    More on this topic: listen to trend forecaster Gerald Celente on real estate trends for 2009 and beyond.

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      5 Comments

      1. AS

        I have been writing about this for about a month now. I don’t think many people understand how horrible the CRE market meltdown is going to be.

      2. Rick Blaine

        I just watched this again…my impression after the second viewing:

        What the hell?  A politician being honest?  What is she thinking?

        I like this lady…she seems genuinely concerned and is not BS-ing us.

        I’ve been hearing about this for some time now…but I admit I am clueless about the scope of this thing.

        However, that little voice inside my head is reminding me of a scene from a recent (somewhat crappy) movie:

        http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Roayx-79cAs

        An important similarity to note:  only a few people saw it coming…most were busy partying until it was wat to late.

      3. admin

        AS, i think you are right… actually, the friends and family members i talk to literally shake their heads in disbelief… I am pretty much a quack in their eyes. I basically tell them they can believe whatever they like and repeat what Schiff has said: the light at the end of the tunnel is an oncoming train!

        Rick, Elizabeth Warren is not so much a politician.. she seems to be more of a consumer advocate. If you watch the movie Maxed Out, that I mentioned in the post, you’ll see what I mean. I am not really sure how the heck she got appointed to COP — it’s kind of wierd, honestly! In any case, no one is listening to her. I have a feeling all of the ‘big players’ in this game know what is coming, as evidenced by the 100 to 1 insider selling vs. buying in recent months. We are essentially just putting it off for a while, but it is going to crash sooner rather than later.

        Finally, Poseidon was a solid movie, in my opinion. Kurt Russell was solid, especially at the end, where he took one for the team to stop the fan thingies.

      4. Rick Blaine

        I don’t know anything about her, but I can already tell that you are right about Warren.

        …and yeah…it really seems odd that she has the position…

        Tangent time:

        Eh…I guess it wasn’t that bad (i.e., Poseidon).  I do dig Kurt Russell (The Thing, Escape from NY…John Carpenter was a god back then).

        I just have general dislike for remakes…with a HUGE exception being cut out for the recent Batman movies.

        Take the recent King Kong remake…Peter Jackson (LOTR  rocks!…though arguably a “remake”) actually did a pretty good job with it, I guess…but it was literally the exact same thing as the original (1933) except the special effects were better and it was twice as long.  If you are going to remake a movie, you should really mix it up…or really, just make a different, but similar movie.  I still prefer the original – and do have the DVD in my collection (like $6 at Target).

        Regardless of whether or not you like them, the recent Batman movies are such a departure from the previous couple of movies (e.g., Batman and Robin (cringes)) that they’ve really given us something we’ve never seen on the big screen.

        On the subject of big screen destruction, I’m pretty fired up about the movie 2012…not that I think it will be good, but it should offer some solid eye candy at least.

        OK, I’m done…sorry to wander so far… 

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