On December 30, 2009 we published High probability of wild card terror-strikes, an overview of a Trend Alert from forecaster Gerald Celente. In it, Celente warned of wild-card terror strikes around the world:
As Celente forecast in the Top Trends of 2010 issue of the Trends JournalÂ®, â€œThereâ€™s a high probability of wild card terror-strikes with the potential to cripple the global economy.â€
Oil spikes, market crashes and financial panic will ensue should an attack of 9/11 scale hit the US or any major oil producer. â€œThe cross-border fighting between Saudi Arabia and the Yemeni Houthi rebels is precisely the type of conflict that could destabilize world oil markets.Â Should the fighting intensify, the Saudiâ€™s risk an attack upon their oil facilities, which could curtail supplies, drive prices higher and seriously damage the already imperiled world economy,â€ said Celente.
This morning we learn that Celente was right on the money, as usual.
Reuters reports on recent arrests in Saudi Arabia:
Top oil exporter Saudi Arabia has arrested scores of militants accused of plotting attacks on oil facilities, in one of the biggest swoops by the kingdom in several years, state media said on Wednesday.
Those arrested included about 50 Saudis and dozens from Yemen, which jumped to the forefront of Western security concerns after a failed December bombing on a U.S.-bound plane claimed by the Yemen-based regional al Qaeda wing, the media said.
The militants were organised in three cells, two of which were planning to attack oil and security facilities in the oil-producing Eastern Province. They included a Yemeni who security officials describe as being a prominent member of al Qaeda.
With oil prices hovering at around $80 and the global economy still walking on thin ice, any significant upset to the system could be the trigger that brings the whole thing down. A major, coordinated attack on oil supplies in Saudi Arabia, Yemen or the Strait of Hormuz could have serious implications for the global economy. With consumers already hurting, a quick jump in oil over $100 could easily send gas prices soaring to the higher end of $3 a gallon, or perhaps even $4 again.
The summer of 2008 saw gas prices at $4 a gallon and we all remember what happened next:
Terrorist organizations around the world don’t have to detonate suicide bombs in the USA to cause panic. They just need to do it on top of a major oil pipeline.
Well, here we go folks. Â If the oil markets get attacked and destabilized, and prices go through the roof, (really high like $5-10 a gallon or so) our economy will falter. Â How long do you ‘spose it’ll take the chinese and everyone else to start dumping US T-bills then? Â What will be our prospects?
This article is absurd! The rest of the world is paying $4.00 a gallon plus routinely!!!!!!!!
Per liter, Jihad Joe…little bit of difference….
Mac:Â Â I am not as concerned about terrorists striking the oil supply asÂ I am about Iran disrupting it after an Israeli first strike. The recent “rift”between the US and Israel is good cover for the US when Israel takes it shot.
Iran will move to close the Straits of Hormuz, the US becomes involved in the conflict and North KoreaÂ enters the fray with another front: reducing Seoul to rubble in an hour with the 10,000 long range artillery pieces that are trained on the city.
Don’t think Iran and North Korea are not collaborating on nuclear weapons. “The enemy of my enemy is my friend.” Granted, we will reduce NK to ashes in a hurry but NK ‘s fearless leader is dying so what does he care? He goes out in a blaze of glory.
Crazy, maybe, but that my prediction for 2010.
Jihad, I get your point about the rest of the world. But $4 gas in the US is a big deal and will certainly have a much different effect on consumers than the $2.80 being paid today. So much so, that, terrorism or not, if the price were to go that high again it could easily be the trigger for another stock market collapse.
Zuk, I agree. The Iran/NK situation is a lot more dangerous than a concentrated terror strike on pipelines. While I do think 2010 is a possibility for an attack on Iran – we know Israel wants to hit them – I think that direct US involvement would only occur if we have a serious problem here at home that needs our attention diverted. Something like a new market collapse, or the economy falling apart again, or even a wag the dog type scenario in the event of Democrats getting hammered in the polls.
Conspiracy theory? Probably, but in my view, not outside the realm of possibility.
*The following is why the FBI and CIA issued that warning a few months ago that they believe the terrorists are planning an attack within the next 2-6 months:
*The truth is that the terrorists know how vulnerable we are right now, not only militarily but even more so economically. One major attack will send our economy to its knees.