Add another month to our consecutive job loss losing streak. That’s 15 in a row. The new unemployment numbers are being released this Friday (April 3, 2009). Expect to see numbers in the range of 9% plus unemployment in the U-3 figures.
Expect to see U-6 at nearly 16%. U-6 counts all the people that want a job but gave up, all the people with part-time jobs that want a full-time job, all the people who dropped off the unemployment rolls because their unemployment benefits ran out.
We may have experienced a market rally recently (including today), home sales may be up 2% over the previous month, and some builders may be reporting better than expected home start numbers, but be assured that the bad news is not over.
Some analysts have started to replace the ‘recession’ word with the ‘recovery’ word. The disaster has been mitigated!
Question: who will keep buying homes, shopping at malls, buying $4 coffees and frivolously spending money on things they don’t need when we lose 750,000 jobs each month?
Answer: no one.
The current market rally is phony, as Peter Schiff has said in recent interviews.
As more bad news hits Wall Street and Main Street, expect the financial markets to break below the lows we saw in early March. This is going to happen sooner than later. I find it hard to believe that this market rally will hold into May.
If you have the opportunity to lock in profits, do it. This market is going to turn on a dime and massacre anyone still holding a signifcant portion of their wealth in equities. If you are using the markets to defend against future inflation, then read Cliff Wachtel’s recent series on High Dividend Stocks to learn some strategies that can protect you in the long-term.
And don’t forget to get yer’ gold, yer’ guns, and yer’ food.
Put on your crash helmet on. Buckle Up. We’re about to go for a ride.