Ray Dalio, the founder of the world’s largest hedge fund, Bridgewater Associates, has warned that the United States and China are on the brink of a hot war. If things begin to escalate, we could experience the horrors of a third world war.
Dalio has outlined a scenario where “we will see the transition from contained pre-hot-war conflicts to a brutal World War III.” In an opinion article published on Linkedin on October 12th, Dalio noted that while “Israel, Hamas, Ukraine, and Russia are in hot wars,” currently, “The major powers (the US and China) are not, though they remain at the brink of one.”
It appears that we are at a very critical juncture in which we will soon see if the Israel-Hamas war spreads and how far it spreads.
According to a report by Bitcoin.com, Dalio was commenting specifically on the war between Israel and Hamas. The Bridgewater founder predicted: “This war has a high risk of leading to several other conflicts of different types in a number of places, and it is likely to have harmful effects that will extend beyond those in Israel and Gaza.” He continued: “Primarily for those reasons, it appears to me that the odds of transitioning from the contained conflicts to a more uncontained hot world war that includes the major powers have risen from about 35% to about 50% over the last two years since I wrote my book Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order.”
Dalio added that the “brutal wars” seen between Israel and Hamas as well as Russia and Ukraine “are more likely to spread than subside.” He cautioned:
These two hot wars make clear how horrific hot wars are. If they spread to other countries, most importantly the major countries, there will be a much more horrific hot world war.
Based on the perspective I have gained from studying history and from my over 50 years of experiences betting on what’s likely to happen, it seems to me that the Israel-Hamas war is another classic, unfortunate step toward a more violent and encompassing international war. In other words, it’s part of a larger war dynamic,” he opined. “It is also likely that the wars involving Israel, Hamas, Ukraine, and Russia will have big effects on the ongoing great power conflicts, and it is very likely that Hamas acted with support from more powerful countries.
I certainly won’t take much for either war to expand involving the entire planet. Any step taken by Iran or China will be seen as an escalation and this globe will never be the same.