Edward Moya, a senior market analyst for the Americas at OANDA Corp. in New York says that the economy appears to be tipping into a recession. “It looks pretty clear that we are going to see parts of the economy break and we are heading for a recession.”
“We forget that there’s also a banking crisis going on, so there’s going to be some pain that’s really going to cripple small and medium businesses. We are going to see some tough times and are probably going to see this play out in markets,” Moya added according to a report by Market Watch.
Analysts have been discussing a recession for well over a year, and it has yet to happen. However, the warning signs are glaring red right now. Just a day ago, a surprise oil-production cut announcement led by Saudi Arabia over the weekend put the prospects of $100-per-barrel oil prices back on the radar, and initially seemed bad for inflation. As Monday’s trading wore on, investors regarded higher oil prices as beneficial for some United States companies and used the OPEC+ announcement as an opportunity to drive Dow Industrials and the S&P 500 to a higher finish.
While Tuesday’s job-openings data generally supports the idea that a softer labor market could help ease wage pressures, investors appeared to be more focused on the signs it is sending about the prospects for economic growth, according to Moya. “We now seem comfortable living with $100-a-barrel oil and, right now, it’s pretty clear we are recession-bound. There were a lot of people thinking an oil spike would keep inflation jitters in place, but it seems like there’s too much weakness in the economy to do that.” –Market Watch.
Others don’t believe that others are going to be a recession at all and that things will progress as “normal” and the system will continue to “function” as it has with the Federal Reserve in full control.
TD Securities in New York is one company that doesn’t see a growing risk of a recession since “the labor market is quite strong,” said Gennadiy Goldberg, a senior U.S. rates strategist at TD Securities. The firm expects Friday’s nonfarm payroll report to show a gain of 270,000 jobs in March, above the 238,000 median forecast of economists polled by The Wall Street Journal.
“We are starting to see the first signs that the labor market is starting to react to tighter financial conditions,” Goldberg said. “But we can’t take away much from this about the next few payrolls or the depth of the next recession.