Forecasters: Prepare For A Brutal Atlantic Hurricane Season, Even Though The Forecast Is “Near Normal”

by | May 28, 2019 | Emergency Preparedness, Forecasting, Headline News | 16 comments

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    A view of Hurricane Florence from space

    With hurricane season right around the corner, forecasters are urging the public to prepare themselves for it. Even though NOAA is predicting a “near normal” hurricane season, it is still a wise idea to brace for a bad one.

    If a person prepares for the worst, they’ll be set when a “normal” hurricane season strikes. However, if there isn’t any prepping and that same normal season persists, people could find themselves in a catastrophic situation.

    The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) says that a “near normal” hurricane season will occur this year, according to WHNT A normal season coincides with NOAA predicting 9 to 15 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which  to 4 to 8 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 2 to 4 major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of 111 mph or higher).

    The image above shows NOAA’s hurricane season prediction. There is a 40% chance of occurrence a near-normal season, which is the most likely, but NOAA also notes a 30% of an above-normal season and a 30% chance of a below-normal season. While there are numerous factors that contribute to NOAA’s outlook, there are two factors in particular that influenced the outlook this year: sea surface temperatures and an El Niño pattern.

    Warmer than average sea surface temperatures over the Atlantic favor storm development. The warm waters offer more fuel for developing storms, which would push for an above average season.

    El Niño, on the other hand, does not favor storm development in the Atlantic. El Niño is marked by the warming of waters over the central and East Central Pacific. This would encourage storm development in the Pacific, but hinder development in the Atlantic. This is because during El Niño wind patterns shift to create more wind shear of the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic, which can ‘tear’ developing storms down. –WHNT

    Regardless of the “near normal” forecast, most suggest those who live in hurricane danger zones begin preparations for a severe season – always. Daniel Kaniewski, Ph.D., the FEMA deputy administrator for resilience emphasized the importance of readiness for any hurricane season. “Preparing ahead of a disaster is the responsibility of all levels of government, the private sector, and the public. It only takes one event to devastate a community so now is the time to prepare,” said Kaniewski. “Do you have cash on hand? Do you have adequate insurance, including flood insurance? Does your family have communication and evacuation plans?”

    The advice to prepare, however, is still sound.  If people are prepared for the worst there will be less worry and fear as the start of hurricane season begins. Not only that but if NOAA is wrong and this hurricane season is incredibly devastating, people will be well prepared for that possibility.


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      1. Take heed.. look at the weather around the country.. if you are in “hurricane land”.. get prepared NOW. You do NOT want to be standing in any lines right before and certainly not after one hits.

      2. Pacific hurricane season is predicted to be above normal due to a warmer ocean due to El Nino. Our usual Humpback migration population was very reduced this year, I can normally see from my property, Humpbacks playing, but none this year. It is believed that this is due to the warmer water so they stayed up north.
        I did just finish my Hurricane proof chicken coop. Home to 13 Cuckoo Marans, one rooster, and one Bantam hen.

        • I am far far far away from the Atlantic and pretty darn far from the Pacific. I have never seen a hurricane or tornado in my life. I have never been flooded in my life. Almost got burned down in a wildfire once but thanks to my fire prevention measures I made it unscathed. relik, I think you will be seeing a lot less marine life in the future, think (fukashima) and the pile of shit navy.

          • Gen,
            There are plenty of whales, they just stayed in the North Pacific this season, normally they come to Hawaii to give birth, play around a bit and then leave, as there is no food in these waters for them. Orcas have started showing up again, because there is plenty of their food here.
            If you can keep foreign poachers out of the Pacific there are plenty of fish.
            And my Local Eco nuts measuring regularly have shown no measurable increase in radiation.
            Lots of plastic from foreign nets though.

        • Relik, good to see you got a banty. They’ll get broody and set on any clutch of eggs and hatch you some more chicks. There are few breeds anymore that still have that in them. My new flock will be coming in early next month. looking forward to getting them.

      3. Take Heed !!! Consider all the weather events all over the country and globe. You do NOT want to find yourself standing in line either before or after one hits. Take HEED !! Get your storm preps done.

      4. I live in Florida and I hate hurricane season. Nothing you can do to stop them. Get out of the way if they are headed for ya. Keep insurance up to date and make a plan for your most treasured items that you cannot take with you.

      5. Hey Mac, we (okay, speaking for myself here) are getting tired of all the pop-ups on your site. Do you want to go the way of the other sites that are ‘no mas’?
        Are there not enough ads on the right side of your page?

        • Maybe you should start up your own site and see what it takes to keep it going if those ads worry you so. Sorry Mac couldn’t help it.

          • j says, “Are there not enough ads on the right side of your page?”

            There are downloads and settings for this, including the off button. Some of the snarky ones tell you not spend too much time, there, which I find amusing.

            r says, “Maybe you should start up your own site and see what it takes to keep it going…’

            I know what it takes. Are you the kind of person who will pay out-of-pocket?

            (I know how to pick ’em. Yes, I do.)

      6. Hurricanes are very disruptive. We evacuated for Irma because, “you hide from the wind but run from the water”. Fortunately it traveled due north 20 miles east and therefore inland. If it had done the same route a few miles off shore (as feared) my home, would have potentially been under a predicted 6 – 8 ft of storm surge above my almost 8ft above sea level home. Sheltering in place can easily become moot if you’re on the coast.

      7. NOAA predicted a fairly mild winter for 2018. The winter of 2018 turned out to be anything but mild.

      8. We need a whopper hurricane on the west coast of Florida, it has been a long time since one came through here. Good for the economy as stores hike their prices skyward as the typical reactionary solution of capitalists. People wait until the last minute as the storm approaches backing up I-75 northward into an inching parking lot. A little excitement in this drab humid boring hotbox packed with every Tom, Dick and Harriet. Like rats scurrying to find a hidey hole.

        • May your wish come true… on YOUR house and only your house

        • aljamo, last year’s brush-by of Michael was proof that the State food most desired by Floridians is SPAM. South of Tampa Bay, hardly a can to be found in the days before or after. We dodged a bullet that time.

      9. There are different satellite views of the Earth, it’s oceans, atmospheric gases, neutrinos, etc, etc, ad nauseam, if you’re the kind of science hobbyist that participates in real, hands-on academia.

        Look at it, without any too-big-to-fail glasses or mouthpieces. Yes, you.

        Or, just remember how the weather was, during a particular holiday or yearly event.

        And, explain to me why to the tv announcer’s theoretical model is any better than yours.

        I see the formal qualifications, the fortunes being made, and have no more respect for these celebrity weathermen than Bill Nye. (They even dress the same.)

        Writing and observation, fine by me.

        So, long as nothing is affecting the readings.

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