Should we believe our President’s recent State of the Union statement suggesting that we’ve made it through the worst of the economic crisis?
“Two years after the worst recession most of us have ever known, the stock market has come roaring back. Corporate profits are up. The economy is growing again.”
-President Barack Obama, State of the Union, January 2011
Via The Daily Crux and David Rosenberg
The stock market is, indeed, roaring back from well below 7000 on the Dow Jones. And according to a recent Politifact review, corporate profits for 2010 will likely come in higher than those of 2007, before the onset of the crisis.
But is it economic growth that drove profits and stock markets? Or is it something else. Karl Denninger of Market Ticker suggests that our real Growth Domestic Product, the measure of economic growth, is nothing but fuzzy math:
The loss of purchasing power in real terms, the drive to “two income†households and finally the wild screams from the media, government, and lastly Bernanke’s recent assertion that “QE2†has been a “success†because the stock market has gone up all underlie the truth – we have not grown the economy at all during the last sixty years!  Instead we serially pulled out the credit card and said “Charge It!â€, continually rolling over the debt and adding more to it.
If you look at the stock market, one has to ask – when did it start to “take offâ€?  In 1991 the S&P 500 printed 300 and the Dow stood at 2,500. That was the start of the monstrous “bull run” in stocks.
Exactly none of the alleged “stock market appreciation†has come from actual economic growth since that time. It has all come from ever-increasing amounts of leverage (debt) that, when subtracted back out of the change in GDP, show that on an actual output basis the economy of the United States has not printed a positive number the entire time.
Is Denninger suggesting that out of control debt spending and excessive leverage in the system could be the possible cause of the stock market and corporate profit growth we’ve seen in not just the last couple of years, but since the early 1990’s? It seems this is the case, and he is using a long lost science called mathematics to make his case.
The math doesn’t lie, folks.
While President Obama diverted the masses of millions watching his speech towards the idea that a rising stock market and corporate profits mean the end of the worst recession in our country’s history, the reality of what’s happening will remain a mystery for most until it’s too late.
The stock market and corporate profits are but a drop in an Olympic size swimming pool. The recessionary bust we experienced was caused by excessive leverage, money printing and speculation, and in our view, was just a canary in the coal mine for the main event.
What we are looking at is a sovereign debt crisis. And, regardless of what our stock markets do, nothing will change the fact that our government has over leveraged itself, borrowing some 40 cents for every dollar it spends. When those chickens come home to roost – and it won’t be long now – no one will be worried about their stock portfolios or how much money GM made last quarter. They’ll be more concerned with how to put food on the table.
President Obama has told us, on numerous occasions, that the recession is behind us and a greater depression was averted.
Can you believe him?
Would you have believed Herbert Hoover when he said in 1930 before a U.S. Chamber of Commerce Meeting:
“While the crash only took place six months ago, I am convinced we have now passed the worst and with continued unity of effort we shall rapidly recover.”
There are many instances of President Hoover attempting to assure the people that everything was going to be alright and that growth and prosperity would return. Most of the people then, like today, had no idea they were already in the midst of depression and the worst was yet to come.
Some choice quotes via The Daily Crux, that should, if nothing else, ring the alarm that perhaps something isn’t quite right:
Obama’s State of the Union:
“Thanks to the tax cuts we passed, Americans’ paychecks are a little bigger today. Every business can write off the full cost of the new investments they make this year. These steps, taken by Democrats and Republicans, will grow the economy and add to the more than one million private sector jobs created last year.”
Herbert Hoover, October 22, 1932, campaign speech in Detroit:
“It can be demonstrated that the tide has turned and that the gigantic forces of depression are today in retreat. Our measures and policies have demonstrated their effectiveness. They have preserved the American people from certain chaos. They have preserved a final fortress of stability in the world.”
Obama’s State of the Union:
“But now that the worst of the recession is over…”
Herbert Hoover, June 1930, to a delegation requesting a public works project:“Gentlemen, you have come sixty days too late. The depression is over.”
Obama’s State of the Union:
“The steps we’ve taken over the last two years may have broken the back of this recession…”
Herbert Hoover, State of the Union, December 6, 1932:“The unprecedented emergency measures enacted and policies adopted undoubtedly saved the country from economic disaster…”
Incidentally, 1932 was an election year that led to FDR’s Presidency. Hoover, who was trying to save his administration, chose to placate the masses with illusions rather than to tell them the truth.
It may not be repeating exactly as before, but it sure does seem to rhyme.
“Corporate profits are up. The economy is growing again.”
No, it’s NOT. The economy is actually TANKING as we speak while corporate fraudsters use front-running, insider-trading & computerized high-frequency trading tactics to make BILLIONS off of micro market-moves. The U.S. Treasury is basically buying up its own bonds. The GDP, CPI and official unemployment stats are completely & utterly COOKED. The dollar is being devalued into OBLIVION. The U.S. no longer abides by rule of law or accountability.
The only thing “growing” in the U.S. economy is the F-R-A-U-D.
I believe that he has a plan for all Joe the plumbers.
want to know the truth about obama and his dear friend rahm?
if so, then fasten your safety belts and download investigative reporter “wayne madsen” on utube.
in the meantime start trading some of those new crisp uncirculated federal reserve ten dollar notes i have previously recommended for some prepper items including 5 quart jugs of 5W-30 mobil 1 EP synthetic motor oil, <65 dimes, quarters, franklin halves, a few morgan silver dollars and one troy oz. silver eagles would also be a nice addition.
good luck from your friend,
/s/ mushroom
Will the real mushroom please stand up…
GMAFB – no apologies extended, intended or implied…
“can you believe Pesident Obabma?”
Nope…Never did..never will…
Next!
Comments….. Obumma is not the stock market, nor is he the economy. He is a community organizer that never held a real paying job in his life. He has surrounded himself with Wall Street thugs who are experienced in fleecing the people. Look who he surrounds himself with, corporate elitists. Can anyone believe Obumma? NO!!!
In my line of work I work with manufacturers of mostly interior commercial products (furniture, lighting, flooring, appliances, etc). I work with large, medium & small firms.  I’ve been doing this for 20 years.
In the last year I’ve seem more people go out of business than all 20 years combined. In the last year I’ve seen companies downsize to the point that the owner is now answering the phone. In the past year they have tightened their belts like I’ve never seen done before. In the past year many of them have switched from chasing private commercial projects to chasing government projects (the only folks spending).
These manufacturers – especially the small & medium sized ones – are the heatbeat of America. They tell the “real” story about what is going on.
This recession is over??!! HA!!! Far, Far, FAR from it mr. community organizer. We are just getting started.
I think I’ll build my food storage to 1 1/2 years – and even that might not be enough 🙁
GA Mom,
You just told everybody how corporate profits went up….
And really, if you needed a year and a half of food life would be miserable anyway. Everyone around you would be dying, or killing.  Let hope you never need more than a month or so.
Who is this obama and this congress really working for?
Comments…..GA MOM, are you still paying 2.99 for a loaf of bread.? I’m paying 80 cents. You are so full of hype, LOL.
Al falfa, you nailed it. Everything I wanted to mention, you pretty much covered. Every metric fed to the public has been skewed (and I’m being kind) to put Obama’s deeds in the rosiest of light!
Indeed, there is a schedule that you can follow, known as POMO (permanent open market operations), which means the Fed take so many billions on a given day, buys back treasuries (our own debt), with the agreement that the Primary Dealers (Banks holding said Treasuries), put that money right back into the stock market, to certain ‘chosen’ companies (i.e. Netflix, Apple, Google, Amazon, etc.). It’s been a phony rise in the market for a LONG time now. Only now, they no longer hide what they’re doing. They simply do not care whether you see the fraud for what it is, or not. There are no reatil investors in this market anymore, just the Fed. If you are in, you’ve got some cajones, let me tell ya. The rug’s about to get pulled out any day!
Also, during the Depression, stated unemployment always stressed the jobs gained for the month, but NEVER the jobs lost. Nevermind you had a net loss of 400,000 jobs in a month, you ‘GAINED’ 10,000! Economy is on the march!
And of course, core inflation. They leave out food and fuel, tell us there’s no inflation. This in turn dismisses the need for a cost of living increase to SS’ers. AND, conveniently enough, they use those same omitted categories when talking about sales growth. At a much inflated value no less!
So yes, as food and fuel begin to really rise now, that is worked into the retail sales numbers, showing a supposed increase in consumer spending!
Lies, lies, lies. Prep now people. All lies. And we wonder why the average Joe is so damn clueless about the state we are in.
Gods Creation – I think you totally missed the point. Corporate profits in MOST companies are not up. The companies are going out of business, they’ve had to lay everyone off just to keep the doors open. There are more folks now chasing govt work than ever before – so there’s less of it per firm.Â
It is a disaster in the manufacturing world. They are panicked.
@ Goldenfoxx…didn’t he have a hotdog stand in Chicago?
GMAFB
This email came to me the other day, and sums up our economic “revival” very well – (please excuse the slightly off color parts…)
It is a slow day in this small Midwestern town and streets are deserted.Â
Times are tough, everybody is in debt and living on credit.
A tourist visiting the area drives through town, stops at the motel, and lays a $100 bill on the desk saying he wants to inspect the rooms upstairs to pick one for the night.
As soon as he walks upstairs, the motel owner grabs the bill and runs next door to pay his debt to the butcher.
The butcher takes the $100 and runs down the street to retire his debt to the pig farmer.
The pig farmer takes the $100 and heads off to pay his bill to his supplier, the Co-op.
The guy at the Co-op takes the $100 and runs to pay his debt to the local prostitute, who has also been facing hard times and has had to offer her “services” on credit.
The hooker rushes to the hotel and pays off her room bill with the hotel owner.
Â
The hotel proprietor then places the $100 back on the counter so the traveler will not suspect anything.
At that moment the traveler comes down the stairs, states that the rooms are not satisfactory, picks up the $100 bill and leaves.
Â
No one produced anything.Â
No one earned anything…
However, the whole town is now out of debt and looks to the future with a lot more optimism.
And that, ladies and gentlemen, is how a “stimulus package†works.
Â
Comments…..Kristen, that was priceless.
Kirsten for President!!!!!
Right! I’d run on the “Grandmas for Liberty” ticket! I have always said that if you really wanted to get this country’s budget on track, you should put it in the hands of a few frugal grandmothers who have seen hard times. Then we’d see how to trim a budget! LOL!
That was some expensive Co-op!
GA Mom, I was referrring more to the larger corporations. As we all know,small business does not matter to the government. When they close all of their remaining business goes to someone bigger. They do the extra work with the same number of employees and no wage increase.
that equals more corporate earnings….or so they say
Is it just me or is it that everytime the stock market does well the rest of America gets worse?
Seems like using the stock market as a measure of prosperity is like using a blood pressure cuff to check the level of fuel in your trucks gas tank…wrong device?!
God help us…
Please please please, people, we must say NO to World Government when the time comes! Will enough people be awake to even stand a chance?
Carpenterbee73: We must say no to world government BEFORE the time comes. If we wait until the time comes it will be too late.
Illegal immigration is a strategy to impose the North American Union on US by making latino foreign nationals “new Americans” to vote in a referendum to, dissolve the US Constitution, join with Mexico, and make US a third world nation. We must oppose Illegal Immigration NOW and vehemently! SHTF America: Illegal Immigration.