Commodities guru Jim Rogers on CNBC Asia Squak Box May 19, 2009. Mr. Rogers discusses commodities, US financial markets, Asian markets, and investment ideas.
I suspect the next big crisis will be in the currency markets. I am trying to figure out what to do there. I bought more Yen because I would expect the Yen to withstand whatever comes next. At the moment I have no shorts.
I’m watching for the most part.
It’s a dangerous market. When investors like Jim RogersÂ and Bill Fleckenstein are staying out of the market, one must pay attention. These are some of the most well known short-sellers and hedge players in the world, and not even they are sure of what to do right now. Watchful waiting for opportunities seems to be the best course of action at this time.
An interesting question from a CNBC analyst: Jim, you made it very clear you are skeptical of the rally we’ve seen in equities. Shouldn’t we be skeptical of the rally we have seen so far in commodities?
I can think of very few industries in the world where the fundamentals are getting better. Is it an artificial rally in commodities? If it is, it is an even bigger artificial rally in stocks.
Here at SHTF Plan we strongly believe commodities will lead the way when the global economies of the world recover. However, at this time, commodities still seem to be tied directly to global equities markets. When the market as a whole drops (i.e. Dow Jones) we see drops in mining stocks, energy stocks and agriculture. It seems, that the current commodity rally is driven by the perception that the global economy is recovering and demand for these materials is increasing. There is no doubt China is stocking up on metals and energy companies. But, we believe that a collapse or correction in equities markets will lead to an equal, and possibly bigger collapse in commodities markets because of the incredible gains we’ve seen in the commodities sector in the last 9 weeks.
Play commodities for the long-term and your investments should bring in solid returns, but be prepared for a hit if the global financial market rally turns to the downside.