In December of 2009 well known economist and NYU professor Nouriel Roubini provided his professional opinion on where the gold price was headed:
“I don’t believe in gold,” Roubini told CNBC. “Gold can go up for only two reasons.”
“[One is] inflation, and we are in a world where there are massive amounts of deflation because of a glut of capacity, and demand is weak, and there’s slack in the labor markets with unemployment above 10 percent in all the advanced economies.
The only way gold can go higher in a deflationary economy is a financial Armageddon, Roubini says, but we’ve avoided that tail risk as well.
So all the gold bugs who say gold is going to go to $1,500, $2,000, they’re just speaking nonsense, Roubini asserts.
At the time, the precious metal was trading at $1125 per ounce.
This morning, gold touched a nominal price high of over $1600.00 for the first time in history:
If Nouriel Roubini’s reasoning for why gold would rise in such an environment is to be believed, then there are two likely causes.
One of them is inflation, and while some can argue that deflationary pressures on everything from employment to credit borrowing should be keeping the price of gold well below $1600, so too can we make the argument that the US Federal Reserve has injected trillions of dollars into the financial system, forcing prices of stocks, commodities and even precious metals to skyrocket. Mr. Roubini no doubt closely follows the official Consumer Price Inflation figures provided to him and his colleagues by the US Bureau of Labor and Statistics, which show that inflation (less food and energy costs) is about 1.6%. In reality, however, the actual rate of inflation is somewhere in the area of 10.6%, providing some explanation to the consistent price rise in gold for the last 18 months.
Inflation effects aside, we submit that Mr. Roubini’s second point is the primary reason for gold’s rise to $1600. The global marketplace is and has been losing confidence in the ability of the government sector to manage, mitigate and resolve the economic crisis. Historically this has been a key factor in determining the value of gold, and this time around is no exception.
In 2009 we opined:
The other scenario, and much worse than scenario #1, is economic Armageddon. Mr. Roubini believes this has been avoided. This may very well be true, though paranoid doom and gloomers must wonder how we are to avoid economic and financial Armageddon with another wave or real estate collapses coming, consumer spending coming to a stand still, world trade getting destroyed, consumer and commercial credit lending frozen, and the US government taking on more debt in terms of borrowing and entitlements than any nation in the history of the world.
Eighteen months hence we submit that even though we were being told by the likes of Mr. Roubini that everything was going to be fine and tail risk had been avoided, we can now see that no such risk has been reduced and we are potentially much worse off today then we were then.
As we see absolutely no solution to the overall malaise facing our Nation and the world, we expect to see gold continue to rise for several years to come. There will certainly be some ups and downs, and we can expect extreme volatility as the system we understand to be our economy seizes up, but the long-term projections for gold remain intact.
While we have seen a historical high of $1600 for gold today, we are nowhere near what the price should be if we adjusted the 1981 high for inflation – which would put us at roughly $2300. Considering that this recession is (by official accounts) the worst crisis since the Great Depression, and literally nothing other than the stock market has showed any significant improvement over the last two years, there is the real risk that another meltdown much worse than the 2008 collapse will drop us even deeper into what many are calling The Greater Depression.
Economic Armageddon may very well be just around the corner.
If this is the case, and the economic problems are not transient, as Mr. Bernanke has suggested, then we can expect gold to reach levels never imagined by the likes of Nouriel Roubini or the ‘gold is not money‘ crowd that includes experts like Mr. Ben Bernanke.
the web bot says we’re headed for the dollar death now
by October it should be in full swing…
Michelle: Could you be a bit more specific why the webbots are saying the dollar collapses by October? If I remember right, the webbots were predicting a major collapse for the fall of 2010. It didn’t happen, but we did have a political”earthquake” with the rise of the tea party.
Economically speaking, the baseline has been established and the trend now will be up, though slightly, with a false prosperity fueled by the release of reserves in the accounts of the MB of the FED and a increase in lending.
By the way, I like the Expando Planet Theory. Original if nothing else. 🙂
Get your house in order folks..
We only have a few weeks left, until the Absolute Total Collapse of the global system cold-cocks us right in the side of the head…
Its all over…
Things are weird all around the world.
Have you seen the “tough” Iranians who lost 108 soldiers today, from Kurdish attacks?
Some speculate that by September something big is going to erupt.
Fasten seat belts boys and girls.
Hey Manos! Good to hear your voice, or type, or whatever. Glad your powders still dry. Had you in our prayers.
Boulderdash…, obummer says we have just hit some rough terrain. I for one will continue to put my faith in THE ONE!!!!
My personal accounting of gold value in 2003 when gold was approximate $300.00 per ounce, any currency at that time was backed by 10% gold the true value of gold holdings would be worth $3000.00 per ounce for what it would be worth in paper money. At $1600.00 per ounce look at the possibilities of $16,000.00 value. Money lenders work off of only 3 to 5% loans to operate on now of worthless paper.
Hope for the best. Prepare for the worst. Remain calm either way.
Okie, listen, and you listen close: flying a plane is no different than steering a rig, just a lot harder to put baseball cards in the spokes.
Of course the powers that be will lie and deceive the public and say the worst is behind us when in fact the worst is yet to come.(“you ain’t seen nothing yet baby”)
“They” don’t want people to panic, but instead what they get is an unprepared country and the situation becomes worst.
Make sure your pantries, cupboards and fridge is full before the end of the month and this “debt ceiling” issue is in full swing. Don’t forget gas and propane too, make sure everything is full, just in case!
We all know here that shit is already hitting the fan, but you have to admit that things are still okay –
Only because the populous is still in the dark.
I think from July 31st and forward, the shit will start rolling down the hill faster as the rest of this county starts slowly waking up, and by October we’ll be in full swing!
Good luck and god bless, I hope you’re all ready because Roubini is right about one thing… “The only way gold can go higher in this economy is Financial Armageddon”!
We all know the debt ceiling “debate” is a game. The problem is that these clowns are playing with fire and that such games often get out of control.
Good reminder. There is a higher risk that a negative outcome to the “talks” will frighten the masses into panic mode.
Besides, your money could be worthless by the end of the month, so might as well spend it now. 🙂
The writing is on the Wall ..
Gold & Silver are God’s money ..
The only real inflation Siren is GOLD ..
Then Silver will explode upwardly ..
If you haven’t prepared your household for the coming
collapse of the U.S. dollar .. then you are Insane ..
The 3 G’s – God, Gold & Guns ..
Stock up on Non perishable foods & water ..
medical supplies .. OTC drugs .. Etc..
Get Right with Jesus
May God richly Bless you all ..
I can cling to that.
And I will make hotcakes with the bitter, er batter. Whatever.
Roubini hasn’t got a clue. Gold is going to 3,000, and probably 5,000 before any measurement in dollar terms is useless as nobody will be taking the paper dollar by then.
Debt clock for 2015…
Think I’m going to hang onto my silver and gold!
However I think the debt balloon will pop before we make it to 2012.
I’ll take just enough paper to go debt free when that time comes. And that time will be when the prime rate goes stupid/silly.
Jim S. is calling for $1764 when it goes silly.
I’ve had “In the air tonight” from Phil Collins going through my head all weekend. I wonder why?
I’ve had “Silent Running” from Mike and the Mechanics going through mine. Both great songs along the same lines.
I’m hearing “Silver, Blue, and Gold” by Bad Company.
The consensous of opinion here is about the same. Lately, I don’t see anyone, except MSM talking heads saying anything different but doom and gloom. Anyone with a lick of common sense can see nothing else. if there are any silver linings to the available economic data, someone please speak up, otherwise, I agree with the consensous—we are screwed.
Too all those , maybe 2%, who prepped and bought some PM’s, congrats, your wise decision is about to pay off. it’s time to do an equipment check, put the wagons in a circle and get ready for the SHTF. The time for all the chaos surely can’t be far off. good luck.
I get email notifications from both 912 group and Tea Party Nation. Within the last few days both had discussions on how “peaceful” resistance is our only option and that violence must be avoided at all costs.
Now please do not misread my comment. It is my sincere belief that only the truly insane desire violence. As one that has buried parents and siblings I am very aware of my own mortality and the emotional pain from seeing those you love being hurt.
That said, I do not believe that there is any way possible that violence can be avoided. The sheeple are gonna wake up one morning, turn on their idiot box, and have the sleep rubbed right out of their eyes when they see the images of the rioting and shootings at the grocery store down the street from their house. They will see the reporter and camera man laying down to avoid the gunfire at the gas station as people kill each other in an attempt to fill the SUV so they can get outta Dodge. Soon the realization will set in that POA & all the other whack jobs on SHTF were right.
We are all commenting on a website called SHTFplan for a reason!
Would you kindly explain that to MY neighborhood??
One little, two little, three little zombie.
Two in the center mass and one in the four. I hate golf, but I drive a mean cart.
No, no, no. When you know they’re zombies, you MUST go for the head shot.
I have this weird feeling that after August 2nd whether the debt ceiling is raised or not, everything will still seem like its normal and fine as if nothing has happened. It’s like we keep anticipating all the doom & gloom news and scenarios but nothing has come about it yet here in the U.S., especially in cities such as NYC, LA and DC.
There is a 50/50 chance everything will be fine. There is a 50/50 chance we will go into the fan. So what is the wise thing to do?
I do not know if the S will HTF in my lifetime. What I do know is that ther are a bunch of buffoon-a-roons in the government who couldn’t balance a check-book and sure as hell do not know what “living within your means” is!
“The global marketplace is and has been losing confidence in the ability of the government sector to manage, mitigate and resolve the economic crisis.” – SHTFplan.
That’s encouraging. Maybe People are beginning to wise up?
“The idea that such intervention is what an economic system needs so as to be functional itself rests on the myth that some people – politicians and bureaucrats – have special talents for guiding the economic conduct of others. This is quite literally a fascist conviction! [one shared by merchantilists] It is diluted by mixing in democratic and capitalist, as well as other features in the system – that’s why it is called a mixed economy” – Tibor Machan
“As we see absolutely no solution to the overall malaise facing our Nation and the world,…” – SHTFplan.
The solution is to let the free market decide, it’s what built America in the first place.
What will likely happen is, a big distraction is required, and while Roubini is wrong in this instance, he does have clues most of us do not:
“…I consider Roubini the most connected man in finance. He has a small house warming party and George Soros shows up. To ring in the New Year, he shows up at billionaire Russian oligarch Roman Abramovich’s New Year’s eve party…
I have never seen Roubini tweeting on foreign affairs before, he is unlikely to be tweeting because he finds the story interesting…”
Too much is being made of the debt ceiling issue. I just saw on Fox News (as I was surfing) that Moodys (Buffets scam company) advised the US to eliminate the debt ceiling to save its credit rating.
All of that is a scam and a diversion. A diversion from what I don’t exactly know. It appears that something is going to happen around the same time as the debt ceiling expires and the diversion has been put into place.
Israel and Iran? Who knows, who cares. Not one bullet will come near me.
I look for a stock market collapse of epic proportions because the QE scam money propping it up will have run out and the bernanks “reinvestment” plan can only support treasuries.
The SM collapse will be blamed on the debt ceiling issue, which is not relevant.
Perhaps they need to collapse the 401K’s to see how much is left over for the govcorp to steal. They do not want to take any inflated assets before they collapse, so they will collapse them first.
Moodys advised the US to eliminate the debt ceiling to save its credit rating?????
My question is this:
Do they not think that those ‘granting’ the credit rating actually read ‘the stuff’ we read, and even more, and examine it to the inth degree???? or even recognize
the ‘game’ played by the goons in this nation??
The credit rating agency isn’t operating on Mars!!
My family and I are busy putting the finishing touches on our preparations. I can only wish that we were better prepared, but we have done the best that we could with the somewhat limited resources that we have had available to us. Just a few final purchases to make locally, fill the gas cans, etc. and then we lock n’ load and hunker down. I pity those who have been too busy watching American Idol to give any serious thought to getting ready to face the tough times ahead.
I really can’t see the ‘house-of-cards’ staying up for all that much longer.
God Bless and good luck to all. Please don’t forget your pets in your last minute preps.
You have more time. So long as the worlds energy providers, gold and silver producers take the US Dollar there is time. That is the break to watch out for, and it’s not happening now.
I waiting on bond yields to explode here along with physical spot & paper to separate. We’re still Aaa depending on what Mood you’re in.
The metal brokers will always have metal, the spot & spread will take care of that. We will always have oil, but at what price.
Wha can afford pets???
Good question JJ,
A neighboor had two dogs. As the crisis got worse he slowly started to decrease the dogs’ food. Last month he gave the dogs to some non-profit organization, because he couldn’t afford the food.
Both animals ate like two human adults.
Unfortunatelly we must adopt to the new environment. People who live in cities will find it difficult to support even themselves. There is no way to have pets bigger than a canary or a hamster.
Out in the country and villages, life will be a bit better.
My dogs are part of my preps. Because I am living a fairly self sustaining lifestlye now my dogs are well cared for on what I produce for them. My dogs are not being fed mass-produced “kibble”. I hope others have given this some thought as well.
Doing the best you can with limited resources is all you can do. I am there with you my friend. I pray for the best for all of us and I agree about not forgetting your pets.
RE: Taking care of pets. If we go long with shtf… dogs and cats love rabbit meat. Shot a rabbit with the bow in the garden last year. Clean him and vac pac. for practice. Impressed the wife. Gents, man up. In your closet you’d better have a nice shotgun, bow with many arrows, ammo, some nice knives, flashlights. My wife told me she liked that I was looking out for her, the kids and her family. This is the age where your patriot spirit should soar and plan on taking care of your family and maybe even the old neighbors who just don’t get it. Just added a couple cans of survival seeds from beprepered.com Not the terminator seeds. Regards to all. Anyone interested in building a survival network? I use a software called DotNetNuke. Easy codeless way to create websites.
We should not be too focused on the Middle East/North Africa as Lindsey WIlliams has mentioned. Instead be wary of the South China Sea disputes. This can quite possible be the catalyst that will erupt into something huge between U.S. and China. As Lindsey Williams mentioned, we should be very wary of China and Russia in the end game.
I watch the price of the PMs closely. When they take off in a straight line up it is time to head for the BOL.
Gotta go there today and put up some sort of a trellis for the pole beans and the peas.
Give a canned jar of green peas to the pretender so he can see how far he can kick them.
Don’t kick those peas yet. Very soon they may buy you an ounce of gold.
Trade all of your gold and silver for fresh crisp $10 bills and put them in #10 cans…if you don’t you’ll be sorry!!
Hi, mushroom!!! How’s it going??You been busy gardening and canning??
You lurker!!!!!!! I knew you were out there… What about the $2 bills?
Oh Hey there shroomy – you and I were on hiatus – how are your crisp $10 bills doing? My gold and silver have doubled – not that I’m keeping score!
mushroom, is that your name or what you take?
When the s*$t goes down…you better be ready. – Cypress Hill
Ok, what does the debt ceiling really mean. I mean seriously at this present time we couldn’t pay off our debt now, or in the future. There isn’t going to be any austerity. Were just sitting in the audience again watching this so called “mating dance” of baboons and when they finally “hook up”, we’ll applaud and everybody will get up and head for the exits. C’mon now, do you honestly, deep down, expect these……common bastards to do what needs to be done?. Time to wrap our heads around what its going to take to keep us GTG in what appears to be coming our way.
The government is not worried about controlling the debt near as much as their about controlling the population. That is what it has always been about and always will be. Controlling the population!!! The End.
The more independent and self sufficient you are the more of a threat you are to a Socialist government.
Agreed. Then I’m surely gonna be one hellacious threat to them.
We have already surpassed the “ceiling”. Austerity WILL happen, one way or the other. It won’t be because of the thieves in DC suddenly seeing the error of their ways.
What dose one trillion look like?
The “Free Market” doesn’t exist in 21st century post industrial America, Clark, it never will. Get a clue. Mises, like Keynes, is dead.
“…. he doesn’t look to the past in order to evaluate the value to him of any item; he looks to the future. The past is gone.” – GARY NORTH
“Free Markets” like Free Trade is a euphanism by the globalist gangster banksters to steal the American economy, transfer it offshore so they can exploit international labor and entrepuenership, and rape the American taxpayer.
They want the sheeple to believe that “Free Markets” exist and equate it with FREEDOM. Is there anything that Americans believe in more than “freedom”?
Free Markets is not a freedom. It is the enslavement of the American people by another name. Don’t let anyone tell you different. Look at the evidence. The jury is in.
All trade between nations is managed. NAFTA is managed trade. It is just not managed fairly.
Actually folks, the economy should start to turn a bit positive before the end of the year, and continue through 2012 to 2013. That is if the creek don’t rise, Nibiru doesn’t manifest on OUR doorstep, and the Israelis don’t annihilate Iran.
This improvement in the economy would be historically consistant with past election cycles, timed to increase O’bummer re-election chances. That would mean a top for gold and silver and consolidation at a lower level after Feburary of next year. I say FEB of next year, because that is when seasonal gold purchases, globally, peak. The calm before the storm.
Back up the truck on the retracement.
“Is there anything that Americans believe in more than “freedom”? “
Each year we have to fill out a form telling how much we made, how we made it and what we spent it on. We then send one copy to the corp and one to the state.
We have to turn our children over for a 6 and half hour programming session 5 days a week between September & June, each year.
We cannot raise our own food and/or sell it without permission. State terrorists are showing up at food co-ops in their cute little black Ninja outfits threatening people with an HK machinegun: “Step away from the raw milk!!”
Those same terrorists bust into a former marines home and shoot him seventy times cause one of the informants claimed was using dope.
The TSA gropes and fondles folks at airports just to piss me off.
The Kenyan in my White House oversaw the purchase and delivery of firearms to the Mexican drug cartels in violation of just about every federal law on the books. ( I think he should be sent to Mexico and tried in a Mexican court by the families of those killed by the ATF’s guns.)
Well yeah, you’re right about Americans knowing freedom..I gotta find my helmet so I can ride my bike to the store now…
You got a permit for that bike.
Nope. I’m a Rebel !
I didn’t say Americans have “freedom” to do anything they want. I said they believe in the concept of freedom as a general rule. WE all here believe that more freedom is a good thing. The Globalist Gangster Banksters use that character trait in Americans to sell the sheeple enslavement under the mantra: free trade and free markets.
We don’t have either, free trade or free markets. Its all managed trade. Its just not managed to the benefit of the American taxpayer and family. It is not even managed to the benefit of the American economy.
Neither am I saying that governmment officials SHOULD be involved as a matter of PHILOSOPHY. I am saying that they ARE involved. They just want US to believe that they are not; or that they have created a free market for US when they have not. That is the deception.
Clark is the perfect example of a sheeple. He believes that free markets exist when they do not; or that they should exist when they never have, do not now, and never will. You can reference GATT and Nafta about that. In todays commercial environment all trade between nations, societies, and economies is by written ageement.
You make excellent points. My big one is that in order for all parties involved to have the same opportunity to profit they must have the same playing field. When manufacturers go to foreign countries to take advantage of slave labor then the market is distorted and the consumer loses the pricing power for his labor since he is no longer involved in the manufacture of the product.
Likewise, when Mexicans and others from further south come into America to provide that low cost labor for agriculture (and builders) the citizen’s pricing power for his labor is also destroyed. It would be different if they were immigrants that planned on becoming Americans but the truth is that they are only here to earn wages that are multiples of what is paid for similar skill in their home country. They save every dime they can and return to live a life of luxury.
One final injustice is that, even though the American may benefit in some small way because the cost of strawberries is less, the American is forced to subsidize the strawberry farmer’s labor cost by providing health care benefits to the illegal alien and his family even if you don’t buy strawberries.
Do you think we will see regional economies after the SHTF ? I believe transportation of goods will be far too dangerous to be practical. Just wondering.
Ron Paul says America’s AAA Rating Not Worth Saving Because “We Are Insolvent”
Nice book called the “Fourth Turning” speaks of this wave of humanity. As the boomers age, their buying habits will change. So my folks…big house on the water and their 3rd big RV. All with inherited wealth. So…who will buy that house and the big toys from them? Not my generation and my my child’s generation. Same goes for the congress who thought they could solve the worlds problems. Too much spending. Too much debt. While my co-workers were maxing their 401k…I did silver and rental property. Stuff I control. In time, both parties will allocate your 401k and IRA to themselves via a “guaranteed” account. That’s how they will fix social security…steal from the folks who worked hard to give to those who watched TV. In time it all will collapse. But it will be a long slow collapse. As for where to live… I’m near the great lakes..a lifetime of water…where the west and south are in great drought. Good time to visit beprepared.com and buy a few pallets of super pails of beans, grains and rice. Soon the prices will soar. Better to have it than not. If the dollar collapses…I’ll just stay home a year until they come up with something. I’ll be in the pool in the backyard. As for the MadMax mentality…the suburbs are armed to the teeth and some of us are organized with the neighbors. We’re all to blame. Mostly…all the folks who shop at Walmart and drive foreign cars. Also, with each visit to the gas pump we exported our wealth. I love that many don’t get precious metals…that keeps the prices low and lets me buy more. My retirement plan…the backyard. Garden, then once a week, visit the coin dealer or a private person to get fiat currency. Slowly nipping at the pile of metal when I need to. This is not the age to seek growth…but wealth preservation. As for my folks…. we really don’t see them. They travel the country in the RV, pissing all the money away they never worked for. They have no desire to see their grand children. A very messed up generation. (1930 to 1943 dob)
They were the depression kids…their parents survived it…so they lived the exact opposite of their upbringing. On my drive to work I see three(3) large churches for sale. Used to bother me, now I realize that things change. In time this country will be transformed. Into what I don’t know. My final plans… buy country land for my kids and future grand kids. Leave a hidden vault of arms, metals, survival items and farming supplies. So if things ever collapse…and I’m not around…there will be a library of farming and survival books. Seems the best thing to use to leave a nice vault is a plastic septic tank. Ever see the movie the Road? As for currently planning….make sure if you have good job to keep it…and also, keep planning your second career. There will be no retirement for my generation…think late boomer early gen xer. I with you all well. Please don’t discount planning for the next generation and if the dollar crashes. Better to plan and be safe and in a bad situation.
Sad and funny at the same time…my kid said to me….”Dad, we live in an apartment.” I rent the upstair for cash. Ironic that her friends parents, with their McMansions are forced to sell. So it’s time to teach the current kids to live life in the reality and not what the media shows. Remember all the real estate agents? “Buy as much house as you can afford.” What BS. If you do, do that…better make sure you have rental income factored in. God bless to all. Keep your faith in God, love your family, make friends with the neighbors and all will be well. We’ll ride this out. Just make sure you plan well. Go with dry goods. This could drag on…canned goods won’t last that long.
Final thought….this cannot be stopped. It’s not IF…but WHEN.
On that day, if there is an event…such as the debt ceiling trigging a truckload of BS…you’ll be happy you planned. Do a bit each day. Forgo buying that next electronic gizmo and stock your basement well. If you don’t feel this is needed. Do a test. I did once. Try not eating for 3 days. You go Zombie real fast. Once you do this…then you will understand the need to not trust our just in time food system that runs on fiat money. Factor in a drought and a debt ceiling issue with fighting political parties… only bad news will come of this.
Mac, any guesstimates on the next margin increase in Ag?
I get it now,that “gold is not money”, so everybody turn your gold in for worthless cash ! Count me in !
Apologize for the sarcasm.
You all might want to fill up your tanks , maybe four days ahead or earlier, because I am sure that the big oil companies already have wind of this and they will raise prices up before August 2nd.
Plug this in to your PA…Motherf*%kers!!!!
Unless gold and silver explode in cost relative to other commodities and goods, it really doesn’t matter at all what the price in USD is, if we are close to shtf.
Keep stacking silver my friends. The people’s medal is about to make gains. Sept-Dec will be epic.
Wow! I agree with most of your comments…
and I like Gold and Silver coins, bars, rings etc.
$1600 Gold, $40 Silver…I think it’s still a buy, what say you?
Remember it’s only “money” if it comes out of the ass end of a printing press, according to our masters.
Like it even matters what any of these talking heads has to say. life is just that, Life. Live it or Die. the choice is yours
I’ve posted this once before, but it bears repeating. If you guys have a Tom Tom GPS, go to the POI section, and download the ‘Gold/Silver Bullion Dealers’.
Over 1,800 locations across the US, to buy and sell your bullion and coins. Every big city, every little damn cow town. Good info to have with you in a SHTF scenario. And free.
Hang in there, guys. Stay in the eye of the storm, and don’t lose your heads now. Just stay focused, and be there for those around you that are not as prepared or clear-minded as the rest of us who have seen this coming for years.
Dennis: thanks for the info man.
This is not the first time I have heard Norbini say something this lame about gold. I lost respect this guy the first time I heard of him.
I saw this mess coming 18 years ago when Project 93 came along. Thank you Devvy for your hard work in waking us up.
After reading the odd statement by Mr.N.,I have no doubt that PM’s will get higher.As my Grandfather said his father told him:”a big of gold and two of silver.The first in case thing go very bad and you need to start over from scratch.The second if the paper money becomes worthless and you need to buy bread.”During the 1930’s depression,my grandfather lost most of his investments,much of the farms/land he owned,but because he kept his house paid for and trained his sons to be self reliant,they were able to make it thru.I get around alot where I live and for every house being sold,there at least 50 still on the market.Most closed up,grass mostly cut,but nobody HOME,period,not even a “for sale” sign sometimes.What real-estate recovery?Prices going up at least 10%(more like 20%).The Feds change the indicators to hide this mess.In the long run,we’re in for some REALLY.REALLY terrible times.Even the UBER-RICH are going to find that robbing the rest of us does not equate safety for them either.I put my faith in God,all others not like minded pay in CASH(whatever form it takes.
Best to ALL,
Stay safe and warm!
Durango Kidd appears to be one Super confused Merchantilist. Problem is, so are a great many other People.
It is a logical fallacy to suggest that because free markets do not entirely exist they never have. Below I provide examples of the free market, many nations have prospered because of free markets in spite of everything else, it’s also what made America a great nation. Durango Kidd, you should stop writing like this is not the case.
Free markets work. They lift all boats. The freer the better.
The free market is the way of the future.
“…I believe that what is meant by the term “free trade” or “free markets” is unrestricted trade of goods, services, and/or money between people. “Free” is not used in the sense of “without price” or in the sense of a gift, but rather is used in the sense of no restriction. The best example free trade that I know about in American life is the private garage or yard sale…”
Clark: A private garage sale is your best example of Free Trade? What a joke. Is that what the American economy has been reduced to by the globalist free traders like you? A giant garage sale? 🙂
Ok everybody! Break out your baseball cards, 8-track tapes, and old comic books! That will restore the American economy!!! 🙂
POA: Ok, yeah you got it right. Plus one here. As far as your question goes, I think it depends upon the level of SHTF that we have and from what cause.
I think in a true shtf situation that interrupts commerce and transporation, the flow of goods (and people)could be reduced to almost nil.
And I believe that, which is why I encourage people to be where they want to be (if they can) when the SHTF if they want to get there.
I think under most situations there would be some signs that would give US a clue that it was time to bug out. Personally, I expect to be where I want to be when the SHTF. In fact, I am where I want to be if the SHTF.
Why do you denigrate individuals who trade with each other, does this mean you do not support the barter networks that People such as the ones on this website (and others) support and are trying to expand?
Do you not understand how the scale of things can be widened from that of a garage sale and be applied to the trade between millions of individuals in different countries?
The free market – all trade – is made up of Individuals, not nationalist groups, how individuals trade with each other is not a joke.
The joke is the current situation, and it’s a bad joke.
When you say, “Is that what the American economy has been reduced to by the globalist free traders like you?”… this reveals your willful ignorance, the economy has been “reduced” by protectionist trade policies, Not by free trade.
You do Not seem to want to, “restore the American economy!!!” you only want to maintain the status quo of protectionist policies that have created the problems People face today.
You write as if the nature of People and the principles of trade have changed in 5000 years, they have Not, which is also why gold is considered valuable today.
Can you not see and understand you embrace the very kind of policies against which the American revolutionaries of 1776 fought?
Theft by Mercantilism: Old and New
“Thou shalt not steal, except by majority vote.” ~ The Gospel According to Keynes, Chapter 1, verse 1.
“Keynesianism is an economic philosophy based on the idea that the free market requires intervention from the civil government in order to maintain justice and efficiency. The free market is both inefficient and unfair to the common man, Keynesianism teaches.
So does mercantilism.
Keynesianism is almost universally believed today. Therefore, mercantilism is almost universally believed. This connection is not intuitive, but it is nonetheless true. What the economics textbooks do not say, because they are written mostly by Keynesians, is that Keynesianism is mercantilism with equations.
The textbooks are officially anti-mercantilistic. There is a reason for this. Mercantilism is officially wrong, because it is undeniably old. Textbooks promote that which is new: “The latest is the greatest.” Mercantilism was believed from 1650 to 1750. It is therefore outmoded.
Yet it is in fact the dominant economic philosophy today. But it operates under cover. The cover is called “managed trade.” It is sometimes called “fair trade.” The high priests of mercantilism baptize the new convert in the name of free trade, but then they catechize him in terms of modified mercantilism. Modern mercantilism is “free trade with modifications for justice’s sake.” “Justice” is defined operationally as “protecting a politically favored voting bloc.”
Keep your eye on the modifications. Here is where the sleight-of-hand operates. Here is where slick-talking fellows from the best economics departments separate the rubes from their money.
BAIT AND SWITCH…”
Clark: I do not denigrate individuals who barter with each other, or trade with each other. I didn’t say that. If you want to exchange some of your property with your neighbor, go for it: exercise your freedom to trade with your neighbor.
But “garage sale” economics is not going to be ramped up and widened to supplant the free trade of the gangster banksters which manages the commerce between nations within formalized agreements. (GATT, NAFTA). Never happen. They won’t allow it. (Restraint of your “free trade”)
As usual, you miss the point, or ignore it. But it gives you a great excuse to post your daddy’s link, over and over and over again.
The free trade of the gangster banksters IS managed trade. That is the system in place. It just isn’t managed to the benefit of Americans or the American economy. It is managed to the benefit of the gangster banksters.
When YOU wave the banner of free trade, and repeat the slogun of free markets, YOU may believe that you are pushing the Mises doctrine, but the sheeple in America do not recognize the distinction between the IDEA of a freemarket as proposed by a dead economic philosopher and a “freedom”. The sheeple think it is a freedom. I think you believe it too. It is not. It is the enslavement of the American people by euphanism.
Free trade and free markets are euphanisms for the managed trade of the globalist gangster banksters who have packaged up GATT and NAFTA like a Christmas present and sell it to Americans like a freedom.
Even if someone believed in the managed trade they have created, there should be a law for “truth in advertising”. Thats right, there is. The “free trade” of the GB’s and the “free markets” they expouse are a lie.
Never in the history of modern civilization has a sovereign state allow the kind of “free trade” promoted by Mises. Never. Your individual examples are apples and oranges.
Now, you could point to the “nation states” of the Indians of the New World as your example of nation states allowing the free flow of goods between the New World and the Old World, but look closely at the parallels and perils of a nation state who allows unfettered trade.
The Indians wanted the metal (lead) cooking pots (oxidation) available from the Europeans. They wanted wool cloth blankets for warmth but received measles, chicken pox and small pox too.
But they liked the cheap manufactured goods so much,(they only had to give an animal skin or two, and beavers were plentiful: a dime a dozen for the Indians); so they allowed the Europeans to establish “Free Trade Zones” on their territory and populate it with their own workers.
The rest is history Clark. Free Trade doesn’t exist. Free Markets don’t exist. They never have existed for any sophisticated sovereign government. They never will.
“Clark’s Garage sale Economics” will not restore the American economy. The American economy is managed by the Golablist Gangster Banksters through GATT and NAFTA.
NAFTA must be repealed. Mises like his theory, is dead.
If you want to understand where Free Trade and Free Markets are headed I suggest you follow this link:
Clark: Lincoln is dead. Keynes is dead. Mises is dead. If any free markets ever existed in recent history, they are dead too. Come back to the 21st century you are living in the past with an ideology which was only an idea, a figment of mises imagination. Heres a quote from one of your favorite contemporary economic philosophers.
I like him too.
“…. he doesn’t look to the past in order to evaluate the value to him of any item; he looks to the future. The past is gone.” – GARY NORTH
As for YOUR definition of free trade and free markets being the wave of the future, I suggest that you read GATT and Nafta. You do not know what you are talking about. All modern markets are managed between sovereign states.
Prior to Lincoln there were free markets:
Celebrating America’s Capitalist Revolution
“…America’s mercantilist cabal achieved very little success in the political arena until their entire agenda was put into place — literally at gunpoint — during the first year of the Lincoln administration. Thus, the Lincoln administration’s adoption of mercantilism, with its tripling of the average tariff rate, its massive subsidies for railroad-building corporations, and its National Currency Acts, was an embrace of the very kind of policies against which the American revolutionaries of 1776 fought.”
An example of the free market in Pennsylvania:
Conceived In Liberty
“The truly remarkable and nearly unbelievable thing that occurred in Seventeenth Century America was the settlement of Pennsylvania by the pacifist Quakers. They denounced slavery and they renounced the use of force and, once arrived, they ignored their royal master, paid no taxes, bought their land from the Indians, and worked industriously for their own individual purposes. They enjoyed twenty years of utter anarchy! But they were brought to heel in the end.
Less remarkable, but more significant for future events, was the emergence of Rhode Island as an unauthorized colony in the midst of royal estates. It became a refuge for political and religious dissidents and a defiant harbor of free trade.”
Clark: Isolated instances within groups of people from centuries ago are not applicable to modern markets and do not evidence a national marketplace as we have today.
You are comparing apples to oranges.
Here is an example of how restrictions on free trade long ago apply to today, see if you can understand it:
The Unconstitutional Tax on American Exports
“…a tax on imports is effectively a tax on exports as well. This is because after a tariff causes the price of certain goods to rise,
. . . consumers . . . include the . . . price increases in their wage and salary demands. Everybody tries to pass the tax to someone else. The only group that is powerless to pass the costs on further are the exporters, who have to sell at world prices and swallow these costs. In essence, a tax on imports becomes a tax on exports…
International trade economists call this the “pass-through effect” of a tariff. … early nineteenth century Southerners understood this perfectly well because they observed how their incomes fell whenever tariff rates rose. …
As tariffs cause imports to fall, less foreign exchange is needed to purchase them and the demand for foreign currency declines. The domestic currency will thus rise in value on the foreign exchange market. Exporters find that their foreign-currency earnings purchase less domestic currency and therefore they suffer…
The founders wisely made taxes on exports unconstitutional because they are so obviously harmful to American interests. What they failed to understand, however, is the basic economics of tariffs, which shows how a tax on imports is also effectively a tax on exports as well. As with all forms of tax incidence, what matters is who ultimately actually pays the tax, not who the law says should (in theory) be paying. John C. Calhoun understood this,…
If taxes on exports are unconstitutional, then so are taxes on imports, or tariffs. Anyone who claims to believe in the U.S. Constitution should therefore be in favor of one hundred percent free trade with no tariffs, quotas, or trade barriers of any kind.”
Lots of significant examples of the free market in this one, the principle applies today just as much as it did then:
Liberty vs Power in Europe and England
“As wealth and capital continued to accumulate in Western Europe from the 11th century on, this growing wealth provided great temptations to Power to seize and divert that wealth for its own nonproductive, indeed antiproductive, purposes…. A unity in free-market relations was sundered and ravaged by the imposed violence and plunder of the governments of the new nation-states.
…The commercial centers of Italy – the northern cities – remained relatively free of restrictions of monopoly and the state apparatus,…
…But the free market also has a time-honored way of fighting back against restrictions: by evading them. Despite the restrictions, the free trade in wool persisted in the form of smuggling, which the government policy had forced upon the merchants. From the late Middle Ages through the 18th century, England was not so much a nation of seafarers and shopkeepers as a nation of smugglers.
…the Dutch Netherlands became the center of the free trade – the nontaxed trade in smuggled wool, and the Dutch ship captains became the leading carriers and traders in tax-free goods, shipped into and out of small harbors along the coasts of England.
…As Henri Pirenne has noted,
Never has any other port, at any period, enjoyed such worldwide importance, because none has ever been so open to all commerce, and, in the full sense of the word, so cosmopolitan. Antwerp remained faithful to the liberty which had made her fairs so successful in the 15th century. She attracted and welcomed capitalists from all parts of Europe, and as their numbers increased so did their opportunities of making a fortune…. There was no supervision, no control: foreigners did business with other foreigners freely as with the burgesses and natives of the country at their daily meetings. Buyers and sellers sought one another and came to terms without intermediaries.
The rise of Antwerp as the great center of European commerce was complemented by the growth of the Dutch merchant marine; for the free-trading Dutch were the major carriers of goods to and from the unrestricted and progressive port of Antwerp, and were as motivated by the spirit of liberty and capitalism as was Antwerp. During the 15th century, the herring, upon which the Hanseatic trade had been founded, migrated from the Baltic to the North Sea and became a cornerstone of Dutch commercial development. Holland and Zeeland became the major herring fisheries of Europe; they improved the techniques of curing the herring and transporting it to all the ports of Europe, while simultaneously refining the methods of shipbuilding and fishing. Hence the Dutch were able to compete successfully with the Hanseatic traders in the Baltic, the North Sea, and the Atlantic, to Bordeaux and Lisbon.
Too many historians have fallen under the spell of the interpretation of the late 19th-century German economic historians (for example, Schmoller, Bucher, Ehrenberg): that the development of a strong centralized nation-state was requisite to the development of capitalism in the early modern period. Not only is this thesis refuted by the flourishing of commercial capitalism in the Middle Ages in the local and noncentralized cities of northern Italy, the Hanseatic League, and the fairs of Champagne – not to mention the disastrous economic retrogression imposed by the burgeoning statism of the 14th century. It is also refuted by the outstanding growth of capitalist economy in free, localized Antwerp and Holland in the 16th and 17th centuries. Thus the Dutch came to outstrip the rest of Europe while retaining medieval local autonomy and eschewing state building, mercantilism, government participation in enterprise – and aggressive war.”
In this description of free markets there is a phrase that is the essence of many comments on SHTFplan, “various restrictions… were almost unanimously ignored”:
The Unfinished American Revolution
“…In the Economic Interpretation, Beard discusses the lives and philosophies of a select group of early Americans who were winners in the relatively free-market world that had been allowed to develop before the British swept in with the Intolerable Acts, and found themselves kicked out of the American colonies.
…John Adams admitted in 1774 that various restrictions on manufacturing were almost unanimously ignored in Massachusetts, and that restrictions on the production and sale of molasses were universally flouted. As the rivers of America became choked with barges and ships transporting illegal goods that had been smuggled past British customs officers, English merchants demanded that action be taken to rein in the free-marketeers of the new world…
The revolutionaries didn’t use words like mercantilism and capitalism and socialism to spin deceitful tales about the economic system. The colonists had been allowed to enjoy the fruits of one of the most unregulated markets in history, and when the British came in to take it away, they revolted. As a result of that brief moment of liberty, the revolutionaries could identify a corrupt system when they saw one. Can you?”
Clark; The principles of free trade as you define it and expouse it does not apply today, and it does not exist. All markets between nations are managed Clark. Read NAFTA. Read GATT.
This is the actual Free Trade of the gangster banksters, while they sell you a theory as if it were a freedom. You have bought into it. Embrace it and it will enslave you and your entire generation.
The free trade of ship owners and slave traders who smuggled goods and people tax free into various ports and countries do not represent a national marketplace as trading occurs today. They are isolated ventures that did not represent national policy. By that criteria you could say that Mexican drug smugglers and coyotes are not criminals but “free traders”. 🙂
How’s what passes as free trade today working for YOU Clark? Seriously. Do you have a job? Do you have any assets of your own? Can you afford a college education? I suspect my young friend that the answer to all of those questions are “no”.
I would also venture to say that no one on this site benefits more from the Free Trade of the gangster banksters than I do. Yet I abhorr the Free Trade of the globalists and gangster banksters that is destroying my country and if left unchecked will continue to eat away at OUR liberties.
Why Clark? Why would I detest a system that balloons my balance sheet? Isn’t wealth glorious?
How’s the free trade of the gangster banksters working for you?
Mercantilist Durango Kidd said, “All markets between nations are managed Clark. Read NAFTA. Read GATT.”
Yes, and that is called Mercantilism, a.k.a. protectionism, something you have advocated for a number of times. It is certainly Not free trade.
Protectionism does Not work, this has been proven by many great Americans.
Mercantilist Durango Kidd said, “…do not evidence a national marketplace…” um, what part of “nation” don’t you understand?:
“…the Dutch Netherlands became the center of the free trade”… a nation.
Northern Italy was just as much a nation as any nation was and they did impressive things under a free trade system, more so than many nations.
“Rhode Island as an unauthorized colony” this qualifies as a nation, imho.
“Such subsidies at the state and local levels of government during the 1830—1860 period resulted in such colossal corruption, inefficiency, and graft, that by 1860 nearly every state in the union had amended its constitution to prohibit them…” Did you not notice the words, nearly every state in the union – a.k.a. nation?
“the pre-Lincoln American banking system that existed from roughly 1845—1862, known as the “free banking era,”” – again, The Nation.
For many People they would be happy if just their state was free, for them the example above of Pennsylvania would suffice as a nation.
“…various restrictions on manufacturing were almost unanimously ignored in Massachusetts [the colony, a nation] and that restrictions on the production and sale of molasses were universally flouted. As the rivers of America became choked with barges and ships transporting illegal goods that had been smuggled past British customs officers, English merchants demanded that action be taken to rein in the free-marketeers of the new world…”
That description of great Americans trading freely is not much different from the Mexican drug smugglers and coyotes of today,… apples and apples.
Mercantilist Durango Kidd said, “Yet I abhorr the Free Trade of the globalists and gangster banksters that is destroying my country and if left unchecked will continue to eat away at OUR liberties.”
And yet you have written many times of your support for more of the same trade protectionist policies that you say you abhorr,… that is why I say you are confused, perhaps that is why you lash out at the messenger rather than discuss the issues?
Also, protectionist trade policies, as bad as they are, do Not, “eat away at OUR liberties” the goberment does that with the willing help of Clovers everywhere.
At any rate:
Mercantilism and protectionism is Legal Plunder.
Clark: You found me out! I am a “protectionist”!!! 🙂
Call me a protectionist if your want. It doesn’t offend me in the least. I will wear that label PROUDLY. I want to DEFEND American workers, taxpayers, and family from exploited offshore workers who get so little pay that 50% or more of the money they earn must go towards food just to survive, while they labor 12 hours a day.
I believe that America should defend its markets, its jobs, and its means of production which the globalist gangster banksters have stolen and transferred offshore using American depositor funds.
Unfortunately the managed trade of the gangster banksters which they claim is “Free Trade” to sell it to Americans, does not protect America; it only lines their pockets.
The evidence is in Clark. Protectionism hasn’t destroyed the Americann economy. It is the LACK of protections that has destroyed the American economy. WE must DEFEND the American economy from the gangster banksters who shout “FREE TRADE” and FREE MARKETS” when trade is managed to their profit.
I abhor the Managed Trade of the gangster banksters evidenced by NAFTA, because it is designed to profit the gangster banksters, not America. It does not protect American markets at all. It doesn’t protect American jobs, or the American economy. It is a license to steal the American economy, American jobs, and destroy the American middle class.
Get a clue, Clark. That is not the protectionism of mercantilism. That is legalized corruption funded by the gangster banksters, and paid for through their lobbyists in DC to Congress, which has CREATED this window of opportunity for the gangster banksters by legislation.
NAFTA was written to protect the gangster banksters; not America. This is not the “protectionism” of mercantilism. Again Clark, apples and oranges by any other name. Go here, get a clue.
CLARK you are EVIL and not just norm evil. you are global evil and represent the dark ages for all to come and for witch all has already passed in history.
I may not know the truth, but I know when I’m being lied to..
Everyone Must Remember:
The Global issue is never the issue.
The issue is Global control.
In defense of liberty I must say, No Durango Kidd, judging by your words which support protectionism, mercantilism and thus a powerful central government you Do Not want to DEFEND American workers, taxpayers, and family, instead you want to enrich a select group of others at the expense of the little People, that is the nature of protectionism and mercantilism, a.k.a. restricted trade.
You do not seem to be able to see beyond the next election and like too many others who ignore the lessons of history you seem to be unable to grasp how those you hope to make things right are going to harm the financial well being of Americans and take away whatever liberties they have left if the path is one of protectionism and big goberment.
Mercantilist Durango Kidd said, “…I do not denigrate individuals who barter with each other, or trade with each other. I didn’t say that.”
Yes,… you did.
You belittled those who trade that way by the way you described garage sales, they are no different from barter networks. It is All free trade and free trade is the solution to the problems the country faces, something you have consistently denigrated.
Also, for example, your statement, “If you want to exchange some of your property with your neighbor, go for it: exercise your freedom to trade with your neighbor.” – this conflicts with your other statement – Durango Kidd says: “Clark: You found me out! I am a “protectionist”!!! 🙂
Call me a protectionist if your want. It doesn’t offend me in the least. I will wear that label PROUDLY…”
Did you not see (as described above) how protectionism works by using impediments such as import tariffs which financially harms individual Americans?… And you’re proud of helping to cause that harm? That’s sick.
How can individuals trade freely if you help to put protectionist barriers in their way?
How can individuals trade freely if you help to put a powerful goberment in charge of “managing” everything?
If I want to trade with someone in another state or country Who Are You to stand in the way?
Who Are You to decide that someone else should benefit at my expense?
Is that not theft which you support?
Mercantilist Durango Kidd said, “The evidence is in Clark. Protectionism hasn’t destroyed the Americann economy…”
Where is your evidence?
I don’t see your evidence.
All I see are the disastrous effects from protectionist mercantilism.
I have shown you how you are wrong, go back and re-read.
Mercantilist Durango Kidd said, “…Free Markets don’t exist. They never have existed for any sophisticated sovereign government. They never will…”
Yes, I notice how you have now tagged on the qualifier, “sophisticated sovereign goberment” as if somehow that changes the nature of mankind and the principles of trade that have existed for thousands of years and helped to build civilizations.
It is Still a logical fallacy to suggest that because free markets do not entirely exist they never have.
Iran Opens Oil Bourse – Harbinger of Trouble for New York and London?
“…The Kish Exchange dates back to February 2008,… Kish was chosen because it had designated as a free trade zone. The Exchange was set up to trade contracts in euros, Iranian rials and a basket of other currencies other than dollars…”
So much for not existing and “never will”. They are trading in a way that is contrary to the, “managed” trade of the Power Elite.
I think perhaps there is an opportunity for you to escape your willful ignorance when you say, “The free trade of the gangster banksters IS managed trade. That is the system in place. It just isn’t managed to the benefit of Americans or the American economy. It is managed to the benefit of the gangster banksters.”
You must recognize that what you describe is protectionism and mercantilism.
The problem with all that is the keyword, “managed”… trade should Not be centrally managed for that is where the Power Elite get their power to Control.
When you support centralized “managed” trade – no matter who you think it benefits – you support the Power Elite and the NWO while helping them to steal from the little People. That is the reality. All you have been doing is arguing who gets the benefit of the theft. This does Nothing to remove the Control the Power Elite of the NWO have over individuals.
The antidote is based upon the ideals America was founded, a decentralized free market.
Durango Kid…my pappy always said a smart man never argues with a fool, onlookers can’t tell you apart.
Umm, so I should buy gold and silver with my dollars cause they will be worthless soon enough. But what do I do with the gold and silver after the dollar crashes? Most gold and silver are sold on paper just like our dollars, and if you do the math we have sold more gold and silver than we actually have( I don’t care what your numbers say-try to get your hands on that metal you bought and see if it’s any easier than everyone withdrawing their dollars from the banks at the same time). So I will have to let the same people who crashed the dollar decide what my gold and silver are worth and how much of it is mine if any. I think gold and silver are the wrong metals to buy for armageddon, but perfect commodities if you are part of a bigger scam. When we give up our responsibilities and let others make our decisions, we deserve what we get.
nick, put down the bong and do a little research…you apparently are too stoned to understand what real money is.
That’s why I recommend selling all of the physical gold and silver you have and trade it for crisp $10 bills and store them in a #10 can. That way you are using the same accepted currency as the rest of the smart people in this country.
Now that was funnnnnny shroom!
Nick, we could put pennies on your eye lids. We will wait until the Hong Kong metals market opens up this Friday.
Bank of America CEO: owners should not look at a home as an asset
I found that gem while reading the comments here:
Why I Am Never Going to Own a Home Again
Why I Would Rather Shoot Myself in the Head Than Own a Home
They make a good case with some solid numbers, contrary to Durango Kidd, and those in the mainstream media and others who promote the desires of the Power Elite of the NWO while dismissing the free market.
Durango Kidd is often promoting the dominant themes of the Power Elite of the NWO, for instance his childish attacks on lewrockwell.com
That website is a resource for non-mainstream decentralized truth, something the Power Elite are against and trying hard to derail.
Oh, and here’s yet another larger dominant social theme promoted by the power elite that is also hyped endlessly by Durango Kidd: “Whatever is wrong with your world is YOUR fault.”
You’re Not Rich Because You’re a Loser
The conclusion says a lot.