Marc Faber: It’s Very Likely the US Will Default

by | Jan 14, 2010 | Marc Faber | 12 comments

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    Editor of the Gloom Boom & Doom Report, Dr. Marc Faber, says that a sovereign debt default in the PIIGS (Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece or Spain) may destroy the Euro, and a default in the US or Japan is also likely:

    (Video follows excerpts and commentary)

    I think based on historical precedence, it very likely they [US/Japan] will [default]. Not tomorrow, and before they do, they’ll print money like crazy, in other words monetize the debt. But eventually it’s quite clear that the US will default. Or, that they can’t keep their obligations, say, that Medicare has to be cut down, Medicaid cut down, Social Security recipients will get less money or people will have to pay more taxes. Either way, something will happen.

    Usually before countries default they’ll print money, then you have hyperinflation. That destroys essentially the middle class and the working class and benefits…

    …then society deteriorates, and then in order to distract the attention of the ordinary people, you go to war.

    As economists like Marc Faber and Karl Denninger warn of an impending collapse if the government does not change our economic, monetary and fiscal policies, our elected officials and appointed leaders continue on the same course.

    Marc Faber just laid out the series of events to look for. Right now, it seems we are still in the opening stages of what will inevitably lead to a sovereign debt default in the United States.

    It almost sounds ludicrous to say that the USA will default on their debt. But given the direction we are going, it looks like it is unavoidable.

    We are currently monetizing and printing trillions of dollars.

    Next, the realization will come that the $75 Trillion in liabilities (Medicare, Medicaid, Social Security) are too much and we will no longer be able to service the debt. In which case, we are either going to have to cut those programs like Doc Faber said, or tax the people more. Since our private sector is shedding jobs, experiencing wage deflation and being taxed to the teeth, what other option will we as a country have, but to cut those liabilities? We won’t even throw President Obama’s health care plan into this mix, but it is clear that, financially speaking, it’s just not going to work with all of the existing liabilities already bringing us to the brink.

    The middle class is dieing and will soon flatline. Over time, this will lead to civil disobedience and social unrest and society, as Faber suggested, will begin to deteriorate.

    A default on our debt may soon follow.

    Though these are only hypothetical scenarios for now, look for the signs and you won’t be surprised if it happens.

    Tech Ticker Interview with Marc Faber, January 13, 2010:


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      1. There will be a day when our dollar dies. The first sign of a dollar collapse is a failed treasury auction. When the dollar goes to shit there will be riots in allover the cities. Police will stay home to protect there home. Then martial law will be implemented. problem is our military is too small  occupy the cities and rural area. and half of them will defect to our side. then they will try a draft. then we will be in multi faction civil war. then they ask for UN peacekeepers and promise them land. then our republic will become drenched with blood. we will be divived in ten regions. read the book civil war II by thomas chittum. i’m hatian american and live in brooklyn. im 18 and i will leave the north wen the shtf and join the resistance in the south if i can.

      2. Mark Faber has hit the nail right on the head ! John Gault is doing a series called “The day the dollar died ” its a fictional account of the lives of 4 people who expierence the collapse of the dollar , Its up to 11 chapters now and riviting !

      3. Yo Mardochee ~
        I think that you have pretty much ‘hit-the-nail-on-the-head’ with your predictions. This next year promises to be very interesting. The Texas Na tionalist Movement is getting stronger every day. The really nice thing about those UN Peacekeepers is that their pretty blue helmets make such really great targets. Bring your AK-47 and come on down to Texas if you want to join in the fun. God Bless & the best of luck to you and your family in these uncertain times.

      4. Who knows what the CDS market is for US treauries?

      5. “As economists like Marc Faber and Karl Denninger warn of an impending collapse…”

        No disrespect towards Mr Denninger, but he can hardly be referred to as an economist. He’s a computer programmer and stock trader. With his background, he doesn’t hold a candle to Mr Faber, who has a PhD in economics.

      6. FOR Bob .  Some excellent forcasters are saying that Europe first then Mexico , Two weeks later the US.   We will see .

      7. I think our friend Mardochee Augustin did hit the nail on the head. When hyperinflation hits your salery will no longer sufice in paying your bills. Thats when people stop going to work. Hyperinflation is a very quick and aweful thing. Prepare by buying food and storing it. Read my blog and listen to my radio show every Sat at 11pm est on
        and visit my youtube channel for info on surviving the greatest depression that will be upon us soon.

      8. 11 Big Surprises for the Next Decade

        1. The Collapse Of The Euro– With Germany having such a different economy than the PIIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece, and Spain) the weaker economies of the Euro region had a choice- to leave the Euro or to suffer massive deflation (since prices where too high and devaluation impossible due to the fact that they didn’t have control on the currency). Massive deflation meant budget deficits north of 10% of GDP and with no monetization possible the sovereign debt market of the PIIGS started to collapse. Some countries tried to cut the budget, which brought severe civil unrest while the economy continued to detoriate. Others refused to physically reform which resulted in further revolts in their sovereign bond markets. The first domino to fall was Greece- when the yield on  the 10 year government bond reached 8% percent it was clear that without a bailout from Germany they where bust, and bust they went. Like after the collapse of Lehman Brothers, the collapse of Greece caused a general panic in the markets, with government bonds of the rest of the PIIGS collapsing since it was clear that Germany will not bail them out. European banks refused to lend to each other and the havoc was over only when the rest of the PIIGS left the currency.

      9. I actually value Denninger’s comments above even Fabers.   Yes, it is probably inaccurate to call him an economist.  But he does the very detailed work of pulling apart government statistics, trading trends, annual reports and other ephemera to show us who is doing it to whom.  

        Faber has a more fundamental analysis based on basic Austrian economic principles.   He’s not done the work Karl has to illustrate the ongoing corruption.    His insights are good, but much more general.    I can predict we are either going to cut benefits, hyperinflate or default (as Faber does).    

        What I couldn’t do (and apparently Faber can’t or won’t be bothered to) is demonstrated by Karl’s current columns, for instance:

        Analyze Swiss court rulings effecting banking secrecy in relation to US law.

        The connection between executive compensation in financial firms and the financial fraud that has taken place therein.

        the FAS 166/167 announcement that was supposed to end the off-balance-sheet games.

        …. etc.    Don’t get too hung up on peoples college degrees.  You finish schooling at 25.    Denninger and Faber are both on the far side of 50.   Much more of both their learning has come from the 30 years of experience since they graduated.   Denninger seems to have learned an incredible amount and honed his ability to ferrit through details.    Faber seems to have perfected his ability to see the forest through the trees.   Both are important skills to have, and both men are excellent writers on finance.


        Mardochee – I certianly hope you are wrong.  Chittum’s book is one of the most disturbing ones I’ve read.   I hope we muddle through some how.  Argentina has gone through currency collapse ever other decade and hasn’t had an all out civil war like Chittum describes. 

        You say you are Hatian-American and want to go to the South to join the resistance.   Doesn’t Chittum foresee the USA shattering into racial enclaves?   Do you want to go south to a majority black part of the USA to fight for a black partitioned homeland?  God I hope we don’t come to that.  What a sickening step backwards towards Naziism that would be. 

      10. You can read more about how bad the economy really is here:
        The fundamental cause of the economic problems is usury, which is the charging of interest on money. The following example demonstrates that interest on money is unsustainable and leads to crisis:
        If someone brought a 1/10 oz gold coin to the bank in the year 1 AD, and the money remained there until the year 2000 AD, collecting a yearly interest of 4%, the amount of gold in the account would have been 3.6 * 10^31 kilograms of gold. This is 1.9 * 10^27 cubic metres of gold weighing 317 times the complete mass of the Earth.
        An ever increasing amount of debt is needed to pay for the interest on the money. At some point this leads to crisis.
        There is a solution that can end the depression within weeks. Read more here:

      11. Part of the reestablishment of credibility from the multiple administrations of corruption will be accountability…We need a nuremberg trial of  ‘ financial mass murderers’ that stretches back decades possibly.  Respect for regulations and laws  must be re-instilled through law and punishment.

        Equivocation must be purged fromm the system through fire and harsh accountability.

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