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What Could Go Awry?

Charles Hugh Smith
April 9th, 2021
Of Two Minds Blog
Comments (5)

This article was originally published by Charles Hugh Smith at Of Two Minds Blog

All of which sounds very pretty indeed, but it does raise a question: can risk really be destroyed, or can it only be transferred? And if it can only be transferred, then what’s it been transferred to?

What a remarkable moment in time: every asset is lofting higher, with no limits in sight. The path ahead is already well-scouted: the U.S. economy will add a million jobs a month until the cows come home, Covid will continue fading until it basically disappears as an issue, the dollar and volatility will continue their death march toward zero (good for risk assets), oil and commodities are entering a new super-cycle of growth, as are stocks, bonds (now that pesky yields are falling), cryptocurrencies and housing– all are entering super-cycles of high growth and essentially limitless expansion of speculative gains.

It’s dreadful having a skeptical default setting, but there you have it: what could go awry? Seemingly nothing. Everything’s accounted for and for anything out of the blue, we have the trusty Fed Put, the Federal Reserve’s implicit promise to crush any spot of bother with a wall of freshly issued dollars and near-infinite credit.

Look on our works, ye Mighty, and despair, for we are the greatest power in the Universe! Resistance is futile, and so on. Indeed.

Since we’re in an era in which speculators in any asset can’t possibly lose, it’s no surprise that punters are borrowing buckets of cash to increase their stake in the casinos can’t lose gaming tables. The chart of margin debt offers an instructive history of can’t lose speculative borrowing.

Margin debt is money borrowed from brokers against the collateral of stocks, mutual funds, ETFs, etc. The more your portfolio rises, the more money you can borrow on the margin because your collateral is rising.

Let’s start with the sad, pathetic pre-speculative Stone Age of the 1950s, 60s and 70s, dreary decades of rapid economic expansion and higher wages but dismally low levels of margin debt. The poor cave-creatures back then made little use of margin debt because their lives were an unending misery of risk. Back in that Dark Age, stock market participants could actually lose money–oh the horror!

The Black Death of risk roamed the land unhindered until the all-mighty Federal Reserve established its impregnable fortress of the Fed Put: every market decline will be crushed, and speculators will be rewarded.

And so the glorious age of Speculative Mania began. The rules to guaranteed gain were simple:

1. Buy every dip, as the Fed Put would soon reverse any decline.

2. Borrow as much money as possible and throw it onto the gambling tables because the larger your bets, the greater your gains.

With risk vanquished, everyone who embraced speculation became a winner–a big winner. Only chumps didn’t buy GameStop calls and reap a quick $250,000 or more in a few weeks.

And so margin debt soared and speculators prospered. All was right with the world. But then inexplicably, some sort of glitch occurred and the dot-com euphoria popped and stocks actually dropped. Punters received the dreaded margin call for cash or they had to liquidate their positions to reduce their margin debt.

Stocks soon recovered, and easy-to-borrow money flooded into housing and stocks, lifting markets to new euphoric heights. Another inexplicable glitch occurred, however, and that bubble popped, too, with extremely awkward consequences–the Global Financial Meltdown. But after the Fed tossed around a few tens of trillions of dollars in backstops, guarantees, mortgage purchases, bond-buying, lines of credit for any bank that faced losses, and so on, that strange interlude ended and margin debt and speculative gains continued their march to new heights of glory and guaranteed gains.

This brings us to the present unprecedented levels of margin debt and can’t lose speculative mania. Everyone is supremely confident that inexplicable glitches are now impossible, and nothing can possibly go awry on the path to new super-cycles of growth and speculative gains.

All of which sounds very pretty indeed, but it does raise a question: can risk really be destroyed, or can it only be transferred? And if it can only be transferred, then what’s it been transferred to? The only possible answer appears to be the financial system itself. But never mind skeptical questions, the Fed Put is now the greatest power in the Universe and so speculative gains are guaranteed, forever and ever.

“Look on my works, ye Mighty, and despair!”
Nothing beside remains. Round the decay
Of that colossal wreck, boundless and bare
The lone and level sands stretch far away.

President Trump is Breaking Down the Neck of the Federal Reserve!

He wants zero rates and QE4!

You must prepare for the financial reset

We are running out of time

Download the Ultimate Reset Guide Now!

    Author: Charles Hugh Smith
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    Date: April 9th, 2021
    Website: https://oftwominds.com/blog.html

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    5 Comments...

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    1. Mr_Yesterday says:

      https://bitcoinmagazine.com/business/bitcoin-will-save-our-earth

      This article by Mr Smith, as SHTF posted, was very interesting. So I followed a few links from his various pages, and also found this above bitcoin article. Remarkable, an interesting read on bitcoin, capturing the energy of last resort. Read this, learn something new.

      However, it seems the bitcoin event will always be bullish, what will they do when the last hash is discovered and mined? Who will have the incentive to keep the blockchain up and running? Who’s going to pay for all the equipment and energy use once the function of those machines eventually smoothens and calms down, to a mere management of the blockchain function, as profitable mining is no longer feasible or possible?

      Speculative mania is supported by poisonous protectionism, the taxpayer backing the insurability of so many ‘financial products’. It’s a worldwide event which answers the age old question; If the whole world is in debt, to whom are we indebted? There is no sound money left except for gold and silver, the closest proximation of a litmus test you’ll get out of the financial system. As the plunge protection team props precious metals up too, as I said, a closest available proximation. Inexorably tied together, one falls the other rises, vice versa.

      From where I’m sitting, I used to get 5 silver round ounces for under a hundred just a few years ago, and just paid $150 bucks for a mere 4 of them yesterday. My house has tripled in price in 10 years, if not more, wages not keeping up, although more money is flowing, I still seem to be just affording the same routine measure of purchasing power, sometimes even less. Prosperity by value of money devaluation, resulting in increasing prices, the illusion of gains. Price does not equal value. There sure is a lot more money going around which results in higher prices, yet the question remains, has increased value been delivered?

      History provides us the insight we need to understand this issue more clearly, in our complex modern times:

      Jackson: I have had men watching you for a long time and I am convinced that you have used the funds of the bank to speculate in the breadstuffs of the country. When you won, you divided the profits among you, and when you lost, you charged it to the bank. You are a den of vipers and thieves. / President Andrew Jackson 1834 on closing the second bank of the United States.

      Jackson: There are no necessary evils in government. It’s evils exist only in it’s abuses.

      I mean dude, it’s not as complex, you don’t need charts and graphs to explain this, in fact that approach merely props up Mr Van Burean from the dead, his ghastly image still observed in these modern times. Speculation with other peoples money is theft. Abolish the fed. We’re living in the era of the Continental Dollar, all over again. Love it or leave it.

      https://www.cato.org/sites/cato.org/files/file_attach/continental-dollar-coin.html

      Want a revolutionary movement to correct these offenses? Look no further than history. There is no greater objection than absence. Article 1 section X. No state shall enter into any treaty, alliance, or confederation; grant letters of marque and reprisal; coin money; emit bills of credit; make any thing but gold and silver coin a tender in payment of debts; pass any bill of attainder, ex post facto law, or law impairing the obligation of contracts, or grant any title of nobility.

      The sooner people get over the ‘value argument’, and just stick with what actually works, regardless of how difficult it may be to get back there, the sooner the world can be a better place. Nothing will ever replace tangible finite resource as a currency. And once you expend energy to mine gold and silver, no more energy needed, thereby reducing the demand for energy exploration. How high can gold go, how high can silver go? You know before fiat currency took hold in this country, a $5 gold coin was exchangeable as $5 in any fungible form, for about a hundred years time without any inflation what so ever. Know your history or be condemned to repeat it, which is in fact, happening real time right now. The bank is trying to kill me Mr Van Buren, but I will kill it. Rising price is an illusion, it has a direct corelation to decreased value. First receivers of money argument, understand that and you will better understand why fiat money is perpetuated by the rich and powerful. Can you imagine if the central planners needed more money, and had to call the miners and tell them to produce more silver? With fiat money the concept of checks and balances is absent, the root cause of all our financial woes.

      • cranerigger says:

        Mr. Yesterday, awesome post.

      • Darth Skippy says:

        The fed believes that playing ‘the opposite game’ has a stabilizing influence against booms and busts.

        So, when virtual money leaves the system, they hypothecate more into existence, or they reduce the speculative value of tangible metals.

        I defy anyone to charge a higher price than the price fixer, if you want to say that a value has been determined, democratically.

    2. Andrea.Iravani. says:

      Creative Accounting and Creative Mass Murder

      Scientific Fraud of Covid-19 to Transfer Mandatory Spending Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security Payments Over to Discretionary Spending Payments to the Military, Corporations, Federal Government Institutions, State Governments, and Local Governments

      Covid-19 is an imaginary virus that does not exist. That is not to say that there are not corona viruses and respiratory diseases that are killing people. There always have been. What is taking place is that all corona viruses and respiratory illnesses, with varying degrees of severity are being attributed to a single mythological virus named 
      covid-19.

      There are so many problems with the RT-PCR test and they are incapable of being accurate.

      Here are the reasons:

      1.) RT-PCR tests are incapable of producing accurate results of any RNA virus. RT-PCR tests reverse transcribe RNA into DNA, and all coronaviruses are RNA viruses. It is insane to claim that anyone has any type of RNA virus based on a reverse transcription of RNA into DNA, since RNA viruses do not contain DNA. It is like taking a deck of cards, and building a house of cards, and then claiming that you know that it is a deck of cards because you have turned it into a house of cards.

      2.) All RT-PCR “Covid-19” Tests Were Contamintated In the Lab that Developed the Tests.

      High false positive RT-PCR test results were exacerbated by tests contaminated with N1, N2, N3 which are all found in strains of influenza A, and of course they are not testing for covid-19, since they do not even know the genetic sequence of it! These tests are reflecting N1, N2, N3, positivity, which could be just about anything, particularly influenza A. N represents neuraminidase, which is explained below.

      Britannica.com on Neuraminidase:

      “Neuraminidase, also called sialidase, any of a group of enzymes that cleave sialic acid, a carbohydrate occurring on the surfaces of cells in humans and other animals and in plants and microorganisms. In the 1940s American scientist George Hirst identified in samples of influenza virus mixed with red blood cells (erythrocytes) a substance that broke down receptors on the surfaces of red cells. Shortly thereafter, German-born British biochemist Alfred Gottschalk discovered that these receptor-destroying enzymes were neuraminidases. Today, these enzymes are known to occur as antigens (foreign proteins that stimulate the production of antibodies) on the surfaces of certain viruses, namely those of the families Orthomyxoviridae and Paramyxoviridae, as well as on the surfaces of some infectious bacteria and other microorganisms.”

      https://www.britannica.com/science/neuraminidase

      Britannica.com:
      “foreign proteins)—hemagglutinin (H) and neuraminidase (N). Therefore, H1N1 represents a subtype of influenza A. This subtype is further differentiated into strains based on minor variations in RNA sequence.”

      https://www.britannica.com/science/influenza-A-H1N1

      Contaminated RT-PCR tests reported by Washington Post:
      https://www.washingtonpost.com/investigations/cdc-covid/2020/12/25/c2b418ae-4206-11eb-8db8-395dedaaa036_story.html

      3.) Dr. Derek Knauss via LibertyInternational.comreports:
      The four research papers that do describe the genomic extracts of the Covid 19 virus never were successful in isolating and purifying the samples. All the four papers written on Covid 19 only describe small bits of RNA which were only 37 to 40 base pairs long which is NOT A VIRUS. A viral genome is typically 30,000 to 40,000 base pairs.

      https://libertyinternational.wordpress.com/category/health/

      ProPublica reported :
      “There are labs that can create parts of a SARS virus, but the FDA’s recommended supplier of such materials said it would need one to two months to provide a sample, Greninger said. He spent two days on the phone making dozens of calls, scrambling to find a lab that would provide what he needed.” – ProPublica

      https://www.propublica.org/article/cdc-coronavirus-covid-19-test

      Parts of a virus are not a virus. The ProPublica article was from February of 2020. 

      Total U.S. Deaths Drastically Sky Rocket After Vaccine Roll Out

      It appears that the “covid-19” injections which started on 
      December 14th,  2020 are killing many more people than they are reporting because there were 2,487,350 annual total deaths until November 16th, 2020.  On December 22nd, 2020,  they report that there have been 3.2 million total deaths in America. So, between November 16th, 2020 and December 22nd, 2020, there were 712,650 deaths. Verses 2.7 million to 2.9 million total deaths per year between 2015 and 2019. So, as usual, medical error is at least the third leading cause of death, and maybe the first or second.

      2,487,350 Total U.S. Deaths November 16, 2020

      https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2020/dec/11/facebook-posts/chart-comparing-2020-us-death-toll-previous-years-/

      3.2 Million Total U.S. Deaths December 22, 2020
      https://apnews.com/article/us-coronavirus-deaths-top-3-million-e2bc856b6ec45563b84ee2e87ae8d5e7

      Raiders of the Lost Cookie Jar

      The mentally incompetent, pathological lying monsters that have conspired to commit a cold-blooded, serial killing, mass murder through “covid-19” injections are hogging everything for themselves, as they continue terrorizing children with The Big Lie that there is a deadly virus that they can catch and leave them as orphans if they spread the non exitent covid-19 to their parents! The “covid-19” injections might leave them orphaned though!

      $800 billion in aid and education funds for state and local governments

      $350 billion in state and local aid

      $400 billion Festivus for the restofus stimulpus checks, ( also given to governmemt employees

      So, $1.15  trillion plus amount unknown in stimuluos checks to government employees and members of their households, and 
      $400 billion minus amount unknown given to government employees and members of their households for the rest of us.

      https://www.cnn.com/2021/03/15/economy/stimulus-economy-biden-2022/index.html

      And that does not include Trump’s stimulous!

      I have not called Sputnik radio show hosts to discuss these topics with them until yesterday, ( April 8th, 2021 ) because I correctly assumed that I would be met with the exact response that I had been met with, of being interupted by them, by them attempting to change the subject, and finally by being cut off. I told them that this is all easily scientifically verifiable, which they edited from the clip at the end, and ended the conversation. You can hear my call to them 103:23 minutes into the broadcast. Like hell they do not know! They refuse to even let anyone speak that contradicts their propaganda and has absolute proof that their propaganda is based on scientific fraud, in this case!

      https://sputniknews.com/radio-the-backstory/202104081082576229-no-amendment-to-the-constitution-is-absolute/

      Boycott the 2022 Election!!! Why Empower the Psychopaths by Voting for Them?!

      Boycott the Companies and Politicians Supporting the Scamdemic, Lock-Downs, “Covid-19” Shots, “Vaccine” Passports, Contact Tracing, RT-PCR Testing, Health Data Theft, and Mask Mandates! 

      Here is an example of the disgusting, opportunistic, arrogance and hubris of the RNC reported by Sputnik:

      “It’s a political winner,” Ford O’Connell, GOP strategist, author and media pundit, told The Hill, commenting on growing conservative resistance to the vaccine ID concept.

      https://sputniknews.com/us/202104051082548500-gop-strategists-expect-bidens-covid-passport-idea-to-seriously-damage-dems-during-midterms/

      Many Republicans claim that the past election was stolen from them, including Trump. Some have said that it is not who votes but who counts the votes that matters. The DNC claimed the same thing in 2016.

      The Republicans are guilty of gross negligence, fraud, high crimes and treason. The Republicans should be taking Democrats to the Supreme Court over issues of “vaccine” passports right now. We just do not have the luxury of waiting until the 2022 midterm elections, and neither do they! 

      Put up or shut up. 

      Either you are capable of securing our 4th, 13th, and 14th amendment rights that would prohibit the “vaccine” passports or you are incompetent, incapable, ineffectual, and complete frauds.

      You are going to have to earn people’s trust and respect for the first time in your lives, rather than just have it handed over to you without the necessary qualification of taking action right now, because that is what is expected of you in the first place. Everyone of you swore by oath and affirmation to uphold and defend the constitution. There is not anything in the constitution prevents any of you from having the DNC state politicians arrested for high crimes and treason. That is what is expected of you at the present time. If you fail to act, you fail to lead, and you fail to uphold and defend the constitution which means that you are not qualified to be in the positions that you are in and have forfeited the privelage of your positions.

      Wildly unpopular American Zionophile that outlawed boycotting Israeli companies organizes boycott of American companies and culture:

      Sputnik reports:

      “It is finally time for Republicans and Conservatives to fight back— we have more people than they do— by far! Boycott Major League Baseball, Coca-Cola, Delta Airlines, JPMorgan Chase, ViacomCBS, Citigroup, Cisco, UPS and Merck. Don’t go back to their products until they relent. We can play a better game than them,” Trump said in a statement released by Save America PAC on Saturday and quoted by The Hill.” -Sputnik

      https://sputniknews.com/us/202104041082535023-trump-says-republicans-must-fight-back-boycott-companies-amid-voting-law-tensions/

      Did you notice that Trump didn’t say to boycott the “vaccines”, masks, RT-PCR tests, and “vaccine” passports?!  What a loser!

      Here is Mitch McConnell demanding that everyone join the boycott that would increase Republican power: 

      https://sputniknews.com/us/202104051082548608-mcconnell-chides-private-sector-for-acting-as-woke-parallel-government-in-wake-of-ga-voting-bill/

      It is offensive as hell to watch these psychos demand that people boycott things that only will empower the psychos while the country is literally uder seige, and it was under Trump and the RNC controlled senate, so that really is not going to help matters by re-relacting Trump or handing back the reigns of control to Republicans, and if you are stupid enough to believe that, then you are basically a 
      brain-dead basket-case, or extremely young and extremely naive.

      The EU and US that have engaged in freedom of navigation operations in the South China Sea deprive freedom of navigation and mobility to their own citizens:

      https://www.globalresearch.ca/criminalization-big-pharma-mrna-vaccine-deaths-injuries-eu-adopts-digital-vaccine-passport/5741209

      https://apnews.com/article/travel-new-york-data-privacy-immunizations-coronavirus-pandemic-f1c7623849d5458bcda3aed67f4c3d90

      In the U.S., since the scamdemic occured under Trump, and Republican control of the Senate, and Judicial branch, the Republicans refuse to acknowledge why there are vaccine passports for multiple reasons.

      Getting people to accept “covid-19” shots for a non-existent virus that have not been approved by the FDA, and are known to be killing people, accomplishes multiple goals for the psychopaths.

      Accepting the “covid-19” shots gives cart blanche to the psychopaths in murder through Munchausens syndrome by assassination through “vaccination” reducing government costs of paying mandatory spending payments medicare, medicaid, and social security to retirees and other people over to discretionary spending payments to the military, corporations, state governments, and local governments. Fatalities have been reported by young healthy people in their twenties and thirties as well, and miscarriages have soared by 360%. People have no way of knowing what is being injected into them. They do not know if they are receiving the same injection as people who have survived injection, or even if the people that said that they were injected are telling the truth about it or not.

      The surveillance state is spying on everyone that accepts the “covid-19” injections, just to make sure that they are safe, yeah, right! Bullshit!

      The “covid-19” injections have the intentions of saving the 
      surveillance state, Tech companies, the medical mafia, the corrupt governments, and also provides as a cover for the financial fraud that precipitated the economic collapse expedited by the forced shut down as a bullshit excuse to get ahead of the economic crisis that had been in the works for years, because… math.

      It is quite ironic that the public employees are always willing to hold mass protests and demonstrations to secure their pensions, healthcare, working conditions, and salaries, but never in any other circumstances! What if your children don’t want to work for the government? Does everyone in your family and extended family work for the government? You are willing to sacrifice the entire country that has paid your wages through brut force in a cannibalistic feast. Do you understand why people are less than content with you? You demand everything and refuse to do anything in return. You are selfish, self-entitled spoiled brats. After over one year into this, time is up. My patience has expired. I am not Putin. You may end up wishing that I was though. Do your God damned jobs or quit! Part of your job happens to be upholding the constitution! They should also let the businesses and financial institutions that use fraud as a business model fail. 

      Some may take offense wit that the language that I have been using, saying that it is rude or impolite, but being under seige by mass murdering, opportustic, pathological lying psychopaths tends to have that effect on me. So if you are looking or waiting for an apology, or a modification of my language, don’t expect it from me, because it will not happen! Consider yourselves lucky that harsh language is the only thing that you have been subjected to so far after your crimes against humanity!  

      “Vaccine” passports are a violation of the 4th amendment, the the 13th amendment, and also the 14th amendment.

      When people are accpeting these “covid-19” shots, they will be under total surveillance. The mentally incompetent, insane, tyrannical, losers in https://www.InfraGard.org that are guilty of high crimes and treason just for starters have claimed that they will be surveilling people that are injected for the purpose of scientific research since none of these shots have been approved by the FDA, are all experimental, and are all under the category of emergency use. This is for the purpose of property theft, including data theft, and for the excuse of syphoning off gigantic defense and health contracts from the government to keep their corporations that use financial fraud, data theft, and terrorism as their business models afloat. This is what William Black termed control fraud. It is rampant, even more so than it was during the S&L scandal in the 1980’s that William Black wrote about in The Best Way to Rob a Bank is to Own One.

      Republicans, desperate to regain control are permitting Democrats to violate the 4th amendment, the 13th amendment, as well as the 14th amendment when they should be taking them to the Supreme Court, or having them arrested and thrown in prison for life for violating those amendments, thereby committing high crimes and treason.

      It is in their interests to allow the Democrats to violate the 4th, 13th, and 14th amendment rights of Americans in the hopes that Americans will place Republicans in control of both houses of congress in the midterm elections, and is also used for raking in the bucks in campaign contributions. The perpetrators of this are guilty of what is known as Superman Complex. They created the crisis, and demand dependence on them for the solution. We, their victims are suffering from what is known as Stockholm Syndrome. Their so called solutions just aren’t good enough! What a coincidence that they created the scamdemic and also say that they only way to end it is to give them more power and control! The RNC, DNC, Green Party, Working Families Party, Socialist Party, and the corporations and individuals that support them, as well as the remainder of sureveillance cult of InfraGard have all conspired together in a campaign high crimes and treason to enslave us.

      Being free without freedom is slavery, Violating the 4th amendment is enslaving the people whose 4th amendment rights are violated. That is a violation of the 13th amendment. In the 14th amendment, states are prohibited from violating the constitutional rights of citizens.

      This article by Paul Craig Roberts does not acknowledge the fact that Trump, and the RNC have outlawed boycotting Israeli companies that have the same “woke” world view of white Christians. Jews in America have expempted themselves from the war on whitey even though they are now all basically looking like Elizabeth Warren and Meghan Markle at this point claiming to be victims of discrimination while simultaneously in the highest positions in America. None of the Jews in America were placed in concentration or death camps by any Americans, and there are by now very few, if any actual holocaust survivors in America today. None of the blacks in America are or ever have been enslaved anymore than white Americans. Racial economic and educational inequalities are attributable to young single parenthood and illegal immigration. White Christan children born out of wedlock from single mothers are in the same economic and educational situations overall. It is fact inconvenient for the DNC.

      The vast majority of legal immigrants in America, regardless of country of origin have much higher levels of income and education than the majority of white Americans as a whole. Illegal immigration cannot be viewed in the same context. Illegal immigrants are making less money than the majority of white Americans because they are working here illegally, and because they are here illegally. America is the least racist country on Earth with the most open immigration policies on earth. 

      These are just tactics of opportunism. To claim privelage based on the race or religion of a population that was once under tyrannical oppressors places everyone on earth in that category. There is not any country, race, or religion that has never been under tyranny during at least one point in history! Many whites were slaves in America, and in Europe, and there were also free blacks in America that were never slaves at all, which is largely ignored for the purposes of oppression of white Christians by Jews, blacks, and Hispanics. 

      Being an illegal alien should be a class one felony, and so should hiring and renting to them.  Until the businesses that hire illegal aliens and people that rent to illegal aliens are held legally accountable by imprisonment, it wil continue. It is the only solution to America’s half a century long problem of illegal immigration that has never been tried, and it is also the only solution that will work. If the incentive for illegal immigration is removed, illegal immigration will end. Right now and in the past the incentives for illegal immigration have been high. The rewards outweigh the risks. It is as simple as that. Reverse it so that risks outweigh the rewards and it will end.

      https://www.unz.com/proberts/coca-cola-delta-airlines-and-mlb-oppose-election-integrity/

      Andrea Iravani

    3. Stupordave says:

      In very short order, immediate future, one segment of the commodities market will fail to deliver, and it will spell the end for most mankind over a very short period. What will bring on this failure of the oil market? I could take three days to list the myriad way the PTB intend to bring it down. Even the PTB don’t know which of the scenarios will take place that they are orchestrating. This gives them exceptional plausible denial of culpability/knowledge. Don’t fret children, no matter what, the uberevil schizophrenic nuclear cabal have made sure that the planet Earth will look just like the FUGGIN Moon soon!!