What lies ahead for the economy this year? Will the economy finally collapse as predicted by many or will the early positive signs in stock markets around the world continue and the global economy will flourish?
I’ve taken a lot of heat for being “gloomy” and for “fear-mongering” lately when I’ve said that President-Elect Trump is inheriting a mess of epic proportions and that we may still be in for a rough financial ride. While I do think that Trump is a far better choice than Hillary Clinton ever could have been, when a situation has been declining as long as ours has, it would take an absolute miracle to turn it around without some pain.
And it turns out, I’m not alone in my concern about the worst for our economic situation during the upcoming year.
Here’s what 12 prominent financial experts are predicting.
Lawrence Yun is the chief economist at The National Association of Realtors® (NAR).
“The budget of many prospective buyers last month was dealt an abrupt hit by the quick ascension of rates immediately after the election. Already faced with climbing home prices and minimal listings in the affordable price range, fewer home shoppers in most of the country were successfully able to sign a contract.” (source)
Gerald Celente is a trends forecaster who has a long history of accuracy. You can find his work at TrendsResearch.com. He predicts:
“We’re forecasting the economy is not going to rebound with the economic proposals that are in place now. . . . The global situation has created an environment for financial panic. The financial panic conditions have been in place for quite a while. What Trump’s victory has done is played it off for a little bit possibly, but on the negative side, you still have the debt and interest rates going up and the debt that has to be paid. On gold, we believe right now is near its bottom.” (source)
James Dale Davidson. He’s the economist who correctly predicted the collapse of 1999 and 2007.
“There are three key economic indicators screaming SELL. They don’t imply that a 50% collapse is looming – it’s already at our doorstep.” (source)
Marc Faber is an investment advisor and fund manager. He is the publisher of the Gloom Boom & Doom Report newsletter and is the director of Marc Faber Ltd. Last month, he wrote:
“2017 will be [when] the US Economic causes a World Economic Collapse! Trump can’t stop a dollar crisis, stock mark crash or gold and silver prices skyrocketing! “. (source)
Faber was also quoted in an article on The Sovereign Investor:
Mark Faber, Dr. Doom himself, recently told CNBC that “investors are on the Titanic” and stocks are about to “endure a gut-wrenching drop that would rival the greatest crashes in stock market history.” (source)
Harry Dent, Harvard economist, predicts the safe-haven of gold will be wiped out during 2017. From a conversation with Economy and Markets:
“While many economists will argue that gold is not in a bubble… and insist it will soar to $2,000, $5,000 and even $10,000, my research has said otherwise…I’ve never been more certain of anything in over 30 years of economic forecasting.”
Incidentally, here is his latest report.
Ann Rutledge is a fixed income analyst who is a regular writer for Forbes. She analyses economic patterns and feels the slide has been underway since 2013. Last year, she wrote:
“So, if you ask me whether we are going to have another global financial crisis in 2017…I would say the odds are good. This one probably started in 2013 and by now is well under way.” (source)
Peter Costa, president of Empire Executions, has taken the unprecedented step of pulling out of the markets ,believing that they are overpriced and that a major correction is on the way. In an interview, he said:
“I think that a lot of these stocks, big cap, small cap, they all got ahead of themselves. And I think that there will be a correction to bring them back to some sort of normalization in pricing and once it gets back there, I’ll be back in the market.” (source)
Chris Martenson, an economic researcher, wrote:
“GDP growth is very unlikely to support the rate of credit expansion that the Federal Reserve wants (or, more accurately, needs). And what will happen if it indeed doesn’t? A lot of painful, awful things – but central among them is a currency crisis.
Amidst the ensuing unpleasantness will be an awakening within today’s hyper-financialized markets to the huge imbalance now existing between paper claims and ownership of real things. A massive wealth transfer from those with ‘paper wealth’ (stocks, bonds, dollars) to those owning tangible assets (the productive value of which can’t easily be inflated away) will occur – and quickly, too.” (source)
Michael Covel, a teacher of trend-following and financial strategy ,thinks the collapse will start in Europe and then spread to the rest of the world. He explains why in great detail, calling it chillingly “the next Lehman moment.”
“Deutsche Bank has startling leverage of 40 times. Leverage is the proportion of debts that a bank has compared with its equity/capital. That means Deutsche has 40 times more debt than equity/capital. Keep in mind that Lehman Bros. was only 31 times leveraged when it imploded in 2008 and sparked the worst global financial crisis since the Great Depression…France’s clear discontent with the EU can’t be overstated. The EU might survive Brexit. But a French divorce from the EU would be cataclysmic, both financially and politically. It would mark the official end of the EU.
…Bank runs would spread as consumers sought the safety of cash well before the actual earth-shattering event took place. It would start in French banks… and the knock-on effects would spread to other European banks that have relationships with French banks. This would create a huge decline in confidence, leading to a European-wide decline in bank lending.
And these bank runs would spread into a more widespread financial crisis in the global financial sector. Non-eurozone financial institutions in the U.S. and Asia would come under immense pressure because they too have heavy exposure to European banks. (source)
Alessandro Lombardi, a former global investment banking analyst wrote:
“Emerging markets are the soft underbelly of the global economy. Many analysts expect the election of Donald Trump to the White House will change the United States’ economic and monetary policies. This could worsen conditions for businesses in emerging markets that are financed in U.S. dollars. The result might be a global economic collapse in 2017.” (source)
Jim Rogers, who founded the Quantum Fund with George Soros, is on the record as saying:
“A $68 trillion ‘Biblical’ collapse is poised to wipe out millions of Americans.” (source)
Andrew Smithers, an economist with an unsettling history of being prophetic, was quoted in the same article.
“U.S. stocks are now about 80% overvalued.” Smithers backs up his prediction using a ratio which proves that the only time in history stocks were this risky was 1929 and 1999. And we all know what happened next. Stocks fell by 89% and 50%, respectively. (source)
What do you think?
Personally, I’m prepping harder than ever before. I’ve spent too much time researching the collapse of Venezuela to sit idly by and let my family face the same hunger and desperation that is rampant there.
Right now, a few rocks are falling, warning of an imminent disaster. If you aren’t prepped, you still have time. Go here to learn more. If you wait until the avalanche begins, it will be unstoppable. You will have waited too long.
My suggestions are:
- Reduce your expenses to the bone. The less monthly overhead you have, the longer you can live on your savings.
- Start building an emergency fund. The rainy day may be here sooner than you think.
- Stockpile food, OTC medications, and other necessities. (Sign up here to get a free report on what they ran out of first in Venezuela. You can use this to build a collapse-proof shopping list.)
- Get prepared to protect your family. When the economy declines, crime increases.
We’ve been in a decline for years. Our national debt has reached monstrous proportions. Even if Trump is able to pull off a miracle and turn things around, there will have to be drastic cuts for this to happen. Painful ones. People will suffer.
And I’ll do everything I can to protect my family before that happens.
Please feel free to share any information from this article in part or in full, giving credit to the author and including a link to The Organic Prepper and the following bio.
Daisy Luther is the author of The Pantry Primer: A Prepper’s Guide To Whole Food on a Half Price Budget. Her website, The Organic Prepper, offers information on healthy prepping, including premium nutritional choices, general wellness and non-tech solutions. You can follow Daisy on Facebook and Twitter, and you can email her at [email protected]
It appears a number of qualified economists, writers, and business leaders are predicting a bad year for 2017. I’m praying they are wrong, but afraid they may be onto something.
Other than food, firearms, medications, trading stock, tools, and skills, we need to be prepared spiritually (have a personal relationship with the Lord), and mentally (tough, resilient, hardy). And if we don’t have a home, residence, and ‘toys’ paid off, we must do that immediately.
Though I’m afraid I’m preaching to the choir, we must not let up in our efforts to bring our great nation back to an era of biblical and constitutional governance as well.
Blessings on all.
Son of Liberty
Anybody with a set of eyeballs, an IQ of 80 or more, a keyboard and fingers to type, realizes, and can predict an economic collapse is just around the corner in 2017 as there is no place left for it to go.
All these people who say, they were right in 2001 and 2008,… pffffttt… You and 100 million other people with a pulse saw it coming too.
As in deep doo doo, that our country is in right now. If I hear one more dope criticizing Trump, they need to get a heavy smack down slap across their big fat mouth and a swift boot in their ass.
What are you doing to “Make America Great Again” in your own neighborhood? Not just sit there like a keyboard chump and criticize Trump. He has not even take office yet to make any changes. And what he has done is already brought some jobs back to America and setting the stage. Support Trump or just shut up you chumps out there. Not you Daisy, just saying. People need to grow up and take responsibility for themselves.
All Trump going to do is get RICHER and he’s friends he could give a “F” about you or me…I give you 18 months or less you wont think he’s your savior
“People need to grow up and take responsibility for themselves.”
OMG, Zeus… a double dose when many cannot handle either of these let alone both.
Agree on Trump. Give the man a chance to show what he can do. We are in deep doo now thanks to the professional politicians, so now we have someone who not only thinks outside the establishment box but who lives and succeeds there as well.
The terrible financial position our country is now in has been building for at least the past 30 years, if not longer. This has become a trend and it will not be changed overnight. Trump is in a position to do a lot of good for our country but we all will need patience. We’re past the time when the fix we need is cheap, easy, or painless so we can all stop looking for this. We are now at the point where the fix that we will find will be the only one possible. As you suggest, it will be painful and it will be long as well. This is what happens when sell-out politicians run the country for so long that they think they own it.
SOL, Not saying that it won’t happen but like a bad penny that keeps turning up, these articles are a dime a dozen this time of year. Its when things appear to be going good that you better watch out.
@POP,
Save the article and look it over a year from now. See where Daisy and these “experts” were right, and where they were wrong. Along that line….
Note to Daisy, Gerald Celente has no long history of accurate predictions. Don’t take my word for it do your own homework. Search SHTFPlan for articles and “predictions” by Celente as well as Infowars (he no longer appears there). Read for yourself his predictions and when he said they would happen. Then ask yourself if you still think he is accurate.
As for your claim that people can read an article about Venezuela and learn how to build a “collapse proof shopping list”, well that just doesn’t fit because the eating habits between the two countries are different, the culture of food is different, and NOTHING is collapse proof. The article may help build a food pantry, but that does not mean it is collapse proof. To put it another way, if a person builds a pantry on your self proclaimed, collapse proof shopping list are you going to help them out if they followed your recommendations and come up short? You are being bold to make such a claim. Normally people who write books dealing with preparedness offer a disclaimer up front that the things mentioned in the book are no guarantee that people who adopt those ideas will survive the collapse.
I started keeping predictions years ago. At some point I would like to have the time to put together a little compendium of these.
Now, this seems like it might be a cheap shot, but really it’s not. And it is the reason I am definitely an Austrian over an Keynesian. Namely, that there are simply too many variables for even the most massive supercomputers to work on (same with the fraud of global warming). I read all these guys, such as Celente, to learn and be forewarned. It always prevents me from getting undiversified. I lost a bundle on gold stocks during the Bre-X era, and probably a lot of you got caught on the .com mania (I didn’t, as I learned my lesson earlier… the hard way, not because I am so smart!). So, I always listen to these guys, pick up what I can, and try to remind myself that investing is like picking your way through a partially mapped minefield. And I no longer swing for the fences, either. So, IMHO, and respectfully submitted, Wilson, you are basically right… but we DO have to make some investment decisions in the end -and this is what Doug Casey talks about, where these nutbars at the Fed have forced us now to all become speculators (which might also play into their end game of bankrupting us all here in flyover country, so we necessarily must join their fiefdom as good little serfs once we are bankrupt)
Thank you Daisy for again encouraging folks to be more prepared and providing basic steps to take to do so.
Most here know how FRAGILE the whole system is – our aging grid system and infrastructure, increasing cyberattacks, the growing numbers of people dependent on the government, the “Obama economic recovery”, etc. A large solar flare or any number of things could disrupt the system and change everything.
“A prudent person foresees danger and takes precautions. The simpleton goes blindly on and suffers the consequences.”
Proverbs 22:3
You know what happens when children go hungry? Parents go crazy.. look at Argentina hyper inflation in the 90 Venezuela now, I hope it never happen here, but the Titanic was unsinkable!!! I speak from experience and its not pretty.
The issue its not if Daisy its right or not! Just a warning advise suggestion for you to do something. when it happen you won”t be laughing. Also don’t forget a gun you may need it so you wont die from Hunger…Good luck
“Normally people who write books dealing with preparedness offer a disclaimer up front that the things mentioned in the book are no guarantee that people who adopt those ideas will survive the collapse.”
Guarantee? You want a guarantee? As a wise man once said, “If you want a guarantee, buy a toaster” because life doesn’t come with one. Well, other than death and taxes, that is.
But here’s the thing. No one either knows or can know the future and without knowing the future, no one can plan for all possible events. In any case, prepping is not about guarantees, it’s about us bending the odds a bit in our favor. That’s all. There are no short-cuts that we can take that will avoid all possible problems. In fact, that’s pretty much why we are here in the 1st place… to meet the challenges that are thrown at us and overcome them as best we can.
41MagMan,
I agree “prepping is not about guarantees, it’s about us bending the odds a bit in our favor. That’s all. There are no short-cuts that we can take that will avoid all possible problems. In fact, that’s pretty much why we are here in the 1st place… to meet the challenges that are thrown at us and overcome them as best we can.”
Having a well stocked pantry, growing a garden and learning new skills to become more self reliant gives me some peace of mind. There are no guarantees in life. The garden could fail and the house could burn down.
The pantry and the garden have helped our family weather many small emergencies over the years.
The chorus of warnings about the economy grows louder. I am amazed we have not seen a financial crisis. Playing “kick the can” of financial debt down the road won’t last forever. (The can of debt is getting heavy and keeps growing!)
We see the “death by 1000 cuts” decline of our country. Yet, there are still MANY who do not realize this is happening.
I would not be surprised if “the elites” decide to “let it fall” during the Trump administration. We know the elites and their cohorts the media did NOT want Trump to become president.
“The global situation has created an environment for financial panic.”
Someone here has said repeatedly over the past few years that the financial infrastructure of both China and Europe is faulty and that global financial collapse could begin in either economy.
Who was that Masked Man ??? It’s in the archives, of course. 🙂
All of the “gold backed yuan” lovers should read this article from Zero Hedge and educate themselves. 🙂
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-01-03/are-chinese-philosopher-kings-losing-their-yuan-fx-religion
lol. DK, Did you send Mac the $100 yet?
Zeus: Take a red pill. You are suffering from normalcy bias. The Yuan is NOT gold backed, and the Yuan is PEGGED by the PBOC. 🙂
Don’t forget we have over 40 pus millions depending on some kind of help from the government. Imagine when they don’t have food or money.
what happened in 2008 anyone was ready for it Not!!!
Whatever happens,have your own act together as best as possible.
Todays prep tip/tool,the speedy stitcher!Work slow this week(OK,non existent for me!)so got one of these tools awhile back and put to use fixing some heavy duty tool carrying bags,this little critter is a awesome tool out of the box and repaired a lot of stuff that was aggravating the hell out of me.
Short money,about 12 bucks on the big e,made in the USA,old school and works like a charm doing medium/heavy repairs,I never used till today and love the damn thing.Could easily repair tents/backpacks ect and can also use a finer thread and needle for more precise clothing repairs,check out on you tube and get one,tis Warchild approved!
Used mine to make denim bags. Cut a 12 inch length from an old pair of jeans (leg) and used the stitcher to make a hem for a draw string and sowed the bottom of the leg shut. Got my Olicamp mess kit stowed in it. Also repurposed a leather holster for my Bahco Laplander folding saw. I use the waxed string for all the sewing.
I have already decided wax string a given on all excepting running a finer bobbin of thread for clothes.I am having trouble getting olive green heavy poly thread for all me packs ect. that are green,molles in good shape but would like to match if stitching a repair ever needed,will use anything if on the trail but nice to have options.
I use spider line in OD in braided..I’ve had it for YEARS and still going strong…Tough as nails and easy to use in one of the hand sewing awls with a sewing machine needle in place of the usual one and a regular bobbin in place of the one it came with…works like a champ.
Vocal,you mean spider wire fishing line?And why a bobbin change?Thanks.
check it out WD. Might have what you’re lookin for.
http://www.thethreadexchange.com/miva/merchant.mvc?Screen=CTGY&Category_Code=waxed-thread-information
Thanks PO,site won’t load for me at moment,keeps blinking trying to connect,not sure why.Will try typing in meself and see if that helps,all other sites loading fine for me.OK,tried typing in and same issue,will try later,this is weird.
have one, love mine. I’ve even run waxed dental floss through it in a pinch for a leather repair on my bicycle bags
WD
“repaired a lot of stuff that was aggravating the hell out of me.”
Also it wasn’t a PITA to use.
LMAO because that type of tool is few and far between.
Appreciate your trial and error information.
If SHTF,the level of stress on people will be incredible. So many people have high blood pressure that there will a pandemic of stroke alone. Even if you are on blood pressure medication, the dosages might not be high enough to deal with it. I have seen blogs on pandemics of diseases. Getting your blood pressure checked and possibly getting a home blood pressure unit are good moves. More thought on blood pressure is needed.
Amen. Stress, and the immediate need for physical activity be it gardening and tending the house by hand, defending oneself, or even fleeing/E&E is going to kill a lot of folks who are used to spending all day on the couch.
Stock up on meds if you need or take them, but one of the most overlooked preps is simple physical fitness. Why? It cant be bought and stockpiled, takes dedication and commitment, and may appear to have less of a RoI than getting physical preps. Face it, most people feel better about going and buying 50 rounds ammo a day than they do about doing 25 situps daily, yet those situps are more likely to save your skin on several fronts.
I Agree with the stress part. you need to talk to neighbors find out how they can help. Nurse, doctors, EMTs, that may live around you. Have a plan when SHTF may be to late
Expecting an economic/financial crash based on evidence is one thing, but wanting it to happen is another. Many who leave posts on this site desire and crave for it to occur. I do not know anyone who is successful or happy and enjoys life mentioning they want a crash. However, I have heard several people say they want it to happen that basically fit into four groups; those that have limited incomes or opportunities or with little assets, those who are angry and resentful believing successful people have deprived them of a better life and believe an economic crash will be the great equalizer, and realistically some are just nuts (sociopaths), and racism. The root cause of all these reasons are mostly a failed and unfulfilled life due to poor education, not taking advantage of opportunities, poor mentoring, and long-term practice of bad habits. I’m not a smart guy, but I know how to observe, and I’ve seen it over and over, again and again, human nature is predictable.
It is likely an economic upset will occur, and it is wise to prepare as best as one can. But we have been reading doomsday scenarios that were supposedly going to happen imminently for ten years. And if that wasn’t enough everything from nuclear war, asteroid strikes on the planet, global epidemics, world starvation, magnetic poles flipping, and every planet-wide catastrophe was added. A lot of people feed off it, and the more dire the prediction the more they eat it up. This only means they want these disasters to happen.
Many people who publish this stuff and “warning” us often quote “inside sources”, insiders who are leaking the “facts”. I can honestly say not one “leaked piece on inside information” has come to pass, in reality all they are doing is quoting each other.
It’s only right one would protect his family and property, but one crackpot said he would shoot a passerby who presented no threat and even kept moving on down the road but had inadvertently trespassed even only one inch on his property; translation-he is chief motive is a desire to hurt people. These type of individuals could justify shooting a lost hungry child and then brag about it. Another said he would derive pleasure seeing people starve to death, this should give one an indication what kind of persons are out there. And then one other guy said the rich needs to get theirs, whatever that means, envy is the motive for that one. These are a few examples. G*d dammit, they want to see suffering and misery and they want to see it right now, and a lot of it.
But there are preppers out there more rational, more discreet, and going about their business in a far smarter way, who know what may happen, and are properly preparing though they still hope for the best emulate them.
check out the UN Agenda 21
Good points, Bill. Thanks for taking the time to write that up. It is similar to my own thoughts. I have an excellent imagination, so can readily imagine just how horrible an economic crash could be. Maybe those who want this to happen don’t have much imagination, so don’t realize just how pervasive, painful, and dangerous such a time would be.
My plan is to hole up and not peek out for at least 60 days. 90 days would be even better. A great deal of the chaos and mayhem likely will occur during the 1st 30-45 days. Being out in that and scrounging for food and water will be extremely dangerous, so best avoided. After that, those without a quantity of stored food will have either starved or become so weak that they no longer pose a threat to life and limb.
It would be nearly impossible to refuse food to a child. They are innocent and have no say in whether or not their parents choose to prep. Some would rather buy toys or go on nice vacations than prep. That’s their choice. But I won’t be in any position to feed them after they have made that choice. Yes, I will have food stored but without knowing how long the SHTF time will be, I can’t know if I have enough for my own family until the emergency passes. Such things will be very hard decisions to make and it would be good if a lot more of us gave some thought to what they will do long before they have to make that decision.
Building physical cash. Acquiring gold/silver. Stockpiling supplies.
The big collapse is going to start in Europe, most likely Italy. Only question is whether Italy takes down France then Germany, or vice-versa. Won’t take long for the collapse to cross the pond and hit the US. All the big banks, US or European, are positioned the same way on their derivatives books. That means they’re all going to be leaning the wrong way when Italy goes belly-up, causing interest rates to rise rapidly and making those derivatives books radioactive. They’ll all be on the hook to cover the spike in rates, but won’t have the liquidity to pay off.
This is how an epic deflation starts. First thing the banks will do is grab depositor account on books (electronic currency) to settle part of their derivatives books; per FDIC, derivatives are first in priority of settlement, depositors are dead last. That amounts to $11T of depositor holdings going “poof”; it will NEVER have the opportunity to make its way into depositor hands as physical cash. There’s your pre-requisite contraction in money supply necessary for epic deflation.
Then there are the numbers. $11T in depositor accounts on books versus $1.4T in physical US dollars circulating world-wide, 50% of which are in circulation within the US. Those $700B in physical dollars within the US are going to be the only dollars for quite a while. If you have physical dollars, it’s going to be the fire sale of a lifetime on goods and physical assets.
My game plan is build cash, back it with gold and silver. Physical cash is going to be king when the epic deflation hits. Early strategy is to use mainly physical cash to acquire physical assets. The reasoning is simple: people will not even be thinking about metal; they’re going to covet physical cash, and will be willing to fire-sale physical assets to get it in their hands. The metals are my dry powder for the long haul.
Reason why I want to hang on to the metals as long as possible: JPM owns 550M ounces of physical silver. At current paper prices, that books for around $9B. Throw in a hypothetical: I’m thinking they may have to piss through a chunk of that on their derivatives book. That tells me physical metals buy a GREATER AMOUNT of more physical assets over the long haul than physical cash will buy over the short haul.
Interesting thoughts, PF. But if the SHTF is bad enough, paper money may hyper-inflate itself to complete worthlessness. It’s good that you also have gold and silver to backstop your position. My position is similar but with lots of preps, some gold, quite a bit of silver, and several thousand in cash. That isn’t a lot of cash as things go but it could be very useful in all but the worst situation imaginable. Bank holidays and other medium duty SHTF situations will respond favorably to having ready cash on hand.
I know that you’re looking at the coming collapse as a deflationary episode and you could well be right about that. But some kind of planning aimed at an alternative SHTF time where the debt market collapses and takes the US$ down with it seems worthwhile.
Of course, it’a always possible that the financial PTB will get together and organize an orderly reset of all debts because the entire world will be in the crap together. Our best chance of getting out of it will be via working together. Everyone gets something and all have to give something. That would be the only way. Those who approach this as “I get something and you don’t” have no solution and no clue as to how one might be found. Cooperation will be the watchword. If not this, then an absolutely long and terrible time will be upon us. How bad? Possibly of biblical proportions.
gold is going going up?
Gold is going down?
WTF?
Pick a side and stick to it MAC.
Silver is up 3% in the last day to $16.43. Its all bottomed out and heading north. So yes Gold is going up also.
A lot of financial folks are lefties/globalists/chamber of commerce types. Take it with a grain and stay focused. Self reliance is always best.
DJT mentioned last week about ending the Fed, maybe they fear this?
All I see isHiring signs posted as I make my out and abouts. Business must be prognosticating better.
CSPAN House today; GOP Rules passed Dems were angry! Yeah the GOP let them have there say and then voted. Fines for any rep. video taping protests or anything else. CSPAN may be fun to watch this year!
“DJT mentioned last week about ending the Fed, maybe they fear this?”
Of course they do. The Fed and other large CBs around the world are the main source of their power over the rest of humanity.
If the Fed is to be ended, one can only hope that the US national debt will be transferred to the Fed’s balance sheet FIRST. 😉
This Harvard economist Harry Dent clown mentioned in this post is a daddy’s money silver spoon fed idiot. Sure the paper markets gonna crash. But trying to get us to believe that gold is going to crash equally or more so he can sell his books is far fetched. If you click on his links one of the things he says to invest in is commodities but not which one. Kind of hypocritical. Sure the possibility of gold taking a dive in fiat currency terms is always there. My daddy didn’t send me to Harvard like him, but based on my own research, gold has never been worth Zero. Enough about Dent the book pusher. I’m not a gold bug but do follow the metals sector. My belief is to have your preps in order 1st #1 priority. Those will be worth much more for your survival then gold. Should you be skillful and smart enough to have preps done and want to invest in metals, at this phase of the game load the boat with the poor man’s metal, Silver. The gold to silver ratio or the number of ounces of silver it takes to buy one ounce of gold currently is about 72 to 1. About a one in a decade high. When history repeats itself like always, it will adjust to a normal of 35 or 40 ounces of silver to buy that same one ounce of gold. That’s when if you desire, you convert some of your silver into gold for half of your initial investment. But what the hell do I know? Buy silver now with your disposable fiat dollars at huge discounts to gold then get half your gold for free later. Just an opinion.
buy STUFF…….stuff that you will NEED, not stuff you “want”….sell the stuff people want NOW, and buy what they will NEED then….it’s a bargain basement out there right now….BTW, i disagree on the paying off of debt. you will MAAAAYYYBE be better off maxing those credit cards and buying said “stuff”….but that damn collapse BETTER come. there won’t even BE anyone to collect debts when THIS one blows.
Yup, thats why i gots a new super duty
I disagree, I don’t plan to be in someone or somethings debt when the balloon goes up. I can own “stuff” but if I’m in the hole, the last thing I need is someone showing up to take my stuff under the guise of a lien when I need it the most. Owe enough, and they will come for your property, mark my words. Theres enough of a chance nothing will happen this year I’m not willing to risk my financial or personal future on going deep into debt. Stay in the green brother, trust me.
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By the way, you asked me to keep you apprised of the markets for one year at this time last year. You made some vague recommendations for folks to panic and to run out and buy things NOW based on the perceived condition of the Chinese stock market. I pointed out the greater trend, the correction, and suggested calm. You called me several insulting things and laughed, so I figured I would humor you.
Here it is 12 months later: I was correct, the Shanghai Composite leveled off exactly where I said it would around 3000 and has remained consistent. The global markets did not collapse, I made a killing on paper mining stocks for six months then converted it to physical PM’s.
Ordinarily I wouldn’t bother when I get trolled but YOU asked me to keep tabs and ‘see where the market is a year from now’.
.
I was right.
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https://www.shtfplan.com/headline-news/chinas-economy-crumbling-second-crash-of-7-percent-triggers-emergency-shutdown-of-markets_01072016#comment-3498866
.
stay safe out there, eyes open.
i was watching fox news just this morning, and their “headline” was “2016, the worst year for U.S. in a long time?”. yes we ARE about to collapse, but predictions are sometimes difficult, especially the part about the future. i knew long before i called you a troll for saying everything was ok that it’s a fools errand trying to guage WHEN the collapse will happen. it was a certainty when homes were mortgaged to 3 times their “actual value” that collapse was inevitable….i been predicting collapse for over ten years now….we DID have a collapse back in 08-09, but we avoided the worst of it by lowering interest rates to zero,destroying savers, and postponing the collapse for another few years…and the bubbles re-inflated. but it WILL happen. and when this epic collapse happens, there’s little anyone will be able to do to “get repaid” all that debt…if you go into debt now, and spend that money wisely, you might just come out “ahead”. many people made out like bandits when they had home equity loans for 90% of the value of their homes back in 07, for example. they bought all kinds of expensive toys with the money….toy haulers, 4-wheelers, jeeps, sandrails, SUV’s…and lots of money in the bank…and when it all collapsed, they walked away from their homes. they had enough money left over to buy another house(i know I did), and if they were REALLY smart, they RENTED a house for 3 or 4 or 5 years, and bought that house at almost a third of the price of the bubble….i was foolish and bought a house in 09 for half price, when if i had waited another year or two, it would have been one third of the bubble prices. but i digress. i’m here to apologize to you. you were right…..for now.
BTW, i have bought a LOT in the past year, and i don’t regret a BIT of it….it’s a sure thing, this collapse. but timing, like gravity, and math, can be a real BITCH! keep yer chin UP, and yer head on a swivel, bro! i tip my hat to you.
That one episode wasn’t going to be the trigger but.. no doubt, its coming in this country. I wish I could time it as well as the contrarian analysts seem to think they can. I have no fear your investments and purchases will serve you well when it does. Hopefully mine do as well.
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Thank you for the apology, you sir are a true gentleman. whatever our past differences, you have a guy in Ohio if needed.
Agreed @Marcus
Debt reduction is a must. This is why I don’t have any debt. When we have debt, we owe more than we have to someone else. When hard times come, they can come in many forms. We do not know which form it will be until it arrives, so planning for an exact scenario is foolish, IMO. Better to be generally prepared for many possible scenarios.
Cashing out your metals stock gains and investing them in phyzz was shrewd on your part, so kudos for that. I do some of that myself, although not with mining stocks. Those who would not know a good investment if it jumped up and bit them always laugh at those of us who do. So? Living well really is the best revenge. 😉
let the record show….i have no debt either….and i got money in the bank.
… on the other hand, we do need to balance the above with the old saw that “if you lined up every economist in the world end to end… they STILL wouldn’t reach a conclusion.”
And they don’t call economics the “dismal science” for no reason!
dent, farber, Rodgers, etc; predict collapse !
in other news, water is wet.
yes, eventually the debts will come calling and its going to be maybe venezula bad; but if anything; trump has pushed that day back a year or several if he actually cuts govt, regulations and actually spurs growth and not the fake crap Obama did.
if the economic wheels fall off in 2017, its going to be something external to the economy like north korea setting off a new world war.
check out the UN Agenda 21
Obama has never been anything but the stooge for the bankers, industrialists, and military industrial people. He sold us down the river.
Yet, people would vote for him until the cows come home, over and over. Some articles insist this freakazoid will run in 2020. Of course, if we crash bigtime, most anything could happen, anything. I wish to hell my wife had kept the folding green under the mattress or wall safe instead of buying another CD, dammit. If banks bust, bye bye deposits.
i haven’t done a food list….EVER, so i’m going to list a few things I THINK are important to surviving when the time comes, and the premise will be that you will stay in place, fighting off a few desperadoes occasionally….but no serious “army” rolling over your place(it’s a real leap, i know)…so here’s what i want, to be able to survive…keep in mind SOME items have MANY uses, and you might not realize how important some of them are. pinto beans
macaroni
rice
canned fruit like peaches, fruit cocktail, pears, apricots
peanut butter
tomatoes and tomatoe sauce
cornmeal
flour
sugar, brown sugar
tabasco sauce
oats
BBQ sauce
popcorn
olives, black
canned chilli
canned soups…my favorite, cream of mushroom
milk, dried, evaporated, and condensed
cake mix, 7up or sprite, and canned fruit…to make cobbler, apple or cherry is MY faves(google that)
canned veggies
honey
syrup
vinegar
shortening/corn oil
soy sauce…teriyake
beef/chicken bullion
baking soda, baking powder, yeast
salt
pepper, garlic salt, chilli powder, italian seasoning, cinnamon, ketchup, mustard mayo.
instant coffee, tea..creamer
hard candy, chocolate
tuna, spam(don’t stack it very high)
well, that’s enough for now….u guys add to it and i will see if i want to add anything to MY stores…remember, this list is like a thousand lawyers chained to eachother at the bottom of the ocean……a place to START…..oh, and i wish eppe was here….don’t forget him
Spices and herbs
Condiments
Canned milk, canned full fat coconut milk
Oils,
Foreign fare
Dried, canned dairy (butter, cheese, milk,)
Dried Eggs
Healthy fruit preserves
Butter nuts canned
Whole canned nuts
Dried and canned meat, fish, poultry
Variety of Salts
Variety of Sweeteners
Livestock (cow or goats)
Chickens &/or Rabbits
Bees
Hunting Dog, Rifle, Traps, fishing pole and metal box filled up
Fruit juices, canned beverages
Beer, Wine, Alchohol
Bottled Water (in glass)
Bottled Mineral Water
Access to fresh water stream or rain water catch system in place
__ edible trees
Perennial garden of vegtables
__edible shrubs and flowers
__ herb garden
Strawberries (make use of them as ground cover)
Grapes (make wine)
Blackberries as deterrent to trespassers (thorny)
Roses work, smell good, but not edible
Cocoa powder
Teas
Essential oils like eucalyptus (Vicks), peppermint, lemon
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thanks, B, there’s some good stuff there!
B, roses are edible (rose hips).
Dried they make a great tea, also are high in vitamin C
Rose “hips”? How the heck can a rose have hips if it doesn’t have any legs? 😉
bcod & B from CA,
Great lists!
Thank you for sharing them!
just trying to pay you back, mom!
Something a lot of folks frown on is ramen, ramen noodles are cheapand a few packs made up make a comforting soup, not the best nutrient wise but an easy fast meal even though, personally im not really going to be worried about the nit picky details regarding nutritional value, a full stomach is better than not,
ramen will be great for all U.S. fatf*ks here in amur’ca…like you say, fills you up. not much nutritional value, but MOST of U.S. need to lose a few(bunch) pounds anyway. THAT also goes bad after a couple years. i buy it, never eat it, and when i go to use it a couple years later…..no good.
reminder, anything with tomato in it (ketchup, spaghetti sauce, pizza sauce, V-8 juice,) goes bad after a year, just had to throw out a stash of same that was two years old, it had all turned dark brown and foul tasting).
interesting.. is it the commercial tomatoes, the method of processing, or an additive? FWIW, I’m still eating my way through the last case of heirlooms I canned two summers ago with no adverse taste, smell, or sign of “badness”. I have no way of measuring nutritional content but they still taste great. Just straight up water bath canning, tomatoes, salt, and lemon juice.
Canned tomatoes in glass will last a long time in a cool, dry, and dark place. Canned in cans? Not so much.
i started prepping in earnest 7 years ago, and i got tons of food from then…i use tomato and tomato sauce all the time from 7 years ago…..the only cans i EVER threw out were 2 cans of tomato that were SWELLED, and 2 cans of fruit cocktail…both not dented, yet i use food STILL that was older than that….i DID just look at catsup that was very dark though……spam(don’t stack it very high), baked beans, chilli, cream of mushroom soup, fruit…all used in the last month that was over 5 years old….but DO pay attention to tomato, it has a lot of acid in it…pineapple too….never use a can that pops up in the center after you press down, and it should pass the smell test too.
Good tips on spotting bad food. Smell test is good too but sniff gingerly so as to not inhale any mold spores that might be just starting. Pay attention to the liquid that surrounds canned food. If it should be clear, beware of cloudy liquid. That often means that bacteria are growing in it. Some liquids are naturally cloudy, such as pineapple juice, so go by smell, bulging cans, discolored insides of cans, and any visible signs of mold. Some food bacteria forms strings in the liquid surrounding food and impart a slimy character to the food and / or liquid. When in doubt, throw it out is the best policy. I’ve had food poisoning before and it was some nasty stuff. That was about the worst I ever felt all over except for a bout of shingles several years ago.
Something else if folks dont know it is the leaves from Broccoli etc are all edible, steam em like spinach or stir fry with other stuff, most crucifers will regrow too, sometimes 2-3 times so dont yank the plants when cutting the tops, even lettuce will regrow
”’cake mix, 7up or sprite”’
Did you know that the only thing needed to add to cake mix is a 6 oz. can soda?? It works.
I have all items on your list but creamer. I take coffee black.
that’s can of coke though.
yes, google dump cake recipes…an easy one for my scout troop my 13 y/o makes is a can of sprite, cake mix, and cherry pie filling or apple filling…i add fresh apples sometimes to. and for crust i sometimes use instant oatmeal, brown sugar, and raisins for the crust….always a hit on any campout/outing.
BTW, right now you SHOULD be able to find cherry or apple at 99cents stores for 99cents…a bargain compared to regular stores….and you can eat those right out of the can when shtf.
Eh,all food lists personal,me,mostly boring basics,ie no cake mixes/popcorn/goody comfort foods,when stores get bigger will consider them.
I also miss Eppe,so,time for a joke:
What is the difference between a womens g-spot and a bottle of Jack Daniels?
A man will actually go to the trouble of finding the bottle of Jack!
I justify popcorn as a short term (too much moisture for long term) storable form for corn meal similar to wheat berries. The fact it can be popped is a major bonus. Cake mix etc I can formulate from what I have.
it’s good to have some comfort food, stuff that will raise your spirits….i cook mostly from scratch, but out in the boonies dump cake is mighty handy.
CAPE ratio
Good Article: ht tp://www.gurufocus.com/shiller-PE.php
Right now CAPE sets slightly above where we were in mid ’07 before the crash of ’08. June ’07 = 27.4, Jan to Dec of ’08 is when things came unhinged, AKA a correction. Jan ’16 = 28.1. Not near as high as 2000 or 1929 but still up there.
@John
Been researching PMs for a bit. Silver miners are putting together a class action lawsuit claiming price fixing by the markets. Gold seems to be the same way. When price manipulation is going on, market forces don’t work like they normally would. It’s anybody’s guess where things will go. Unless you’re the one doing the manipulating.
What did these guys say would happen in 2016?
Who Cares! People need to eat regardless. When you have this stuff, you don’t have to go out unless you want to. Less hassle. More relaxed and able to enjoy life!!
__
OTC
The guy who come up with the ratio, Shiller, has been saying were overdue for a correction since ’15+-. Based on the chart he’s not too far off base.
Unemployement is supposed to jump by a full percentage around March/April. Once again, forecasts are forecasts. Many things can happen between now and then.
ht tp://www.forecasts.org/unemploy.htm
the employed percentage of working-age people in america is currently around 59%, according to the gub-mint’s own website….i’m sure everything will be ok….what could POSSIBLY go wrong with nearly half of the population not working???….oh, and OVER half of the population is on some kind of public assistance.
That sounds like one of those charts where there are two lines, one rising and one falling, that intersect in the middle of the graph. My guess is that where / when they meet, all hell will break loose.
It does not matter who the president is. All wars are bankers wars. Nothing has changed. We have the Federal Reserve IMF Central Banks Wall Street Bank of London all working together. They are in business to create debt.
I think a good commodity to invest in will be toilet paper and disposable razor blades. Also good clean drinking water. That does not mean invest in Nestles or any bottled corporate water.
People will do really weird stuff when they are hungry.
Especially when money is worthless.
Main priority: The earth is being destroyed by chemtrails. #1 priority should be halting all geoengineering. We are being sprayed like roaches.
Its all part of the depopulation plan. The UN wants you dead. People talking about financial situation while we are being slow killed.
I am over here now. Distracted again.
I agree 1000% with you
Other really good trading goodies include: fish hooks and line, needles and thread, coffee and tea, sugar and honey, matches and butane lighters, buttons, safety pins, BBs and pellets, .22 ammo, sewing kits, scissors, knives, etc. Basically anything that is now made in bulk, is cheap, and is useful.
I bailed out of the market in Feb of 07 and pretty much stayed out save some jump in and jump out with relatively small amounts in very selective companies like SWHC (Smith & Wesson). I lost out on one huge rise because I followed a strategy where 1 + 1 = 2.
The reality is with QE injection of money the old rules set in stone don’t apply because the other poker players can pull aces out of their sleeve at will thus altering the odds. Those who stayed in and made money for the most part had faith not understanding the big picture. Those like myself understood the big picture but not the new rules or lack thereof.
All bets are off regarding the future.
I hate to admit it but I think Harry Dent is right. Gold, Silver and about everything else IS priced in dollars, Yen etc. BUT if all currencies collapse like we think will happen then WHAT do you base your GOLD value at then? IF Dollars are worthless then how many dollars will it take to buy an ounce of Gold? (ALL OF THEM……)
But no one trades Gold for Beans SO the value in Beans to Dollars will drop and drop until it will take ALL your Gold to buy a pound of beans, IF even that. THINK ABOUT IT! You can see my site at: http://www.iplantosurvive.info
If they were smart the shanksters would let the markets fall 50% so that they could pump them up 100%, rinse and repeat. They allowed all the excess QE to enter the wall street casino. It is too late, they must draw the cash back in via higher interest rates [the stealth taxation]!! The central banks will all be forced to end all QE and forced to raise interest rates to remove the trillions in past QE or face hyperinflation. But how can you have hyperinflation when everyone is in debt beyond their capacity to repay??? Simple, soon the entire supply system will breakdown. Too bad the 18% rate hikes will cause a demand collapse due to no more credit can be taken out because the world citizen is tapped out and half the adult world doesn’t have a job.
Gold is duplicating last January. Expect an equity market fall of 18% within the next 7 trading days and the big mother f***** 40% drop come February/March the debt ceiling due 1 March and the mother of all surprises is revealed. The talking bitches on CNBC will cry.
Daisy has written a well constructed article here with statements & predictions from some very “trusted & true” high profile business people who have been around for a long time through many cycles of boom & bust & who manage very large hedge funds today.
Some of the previous comments warrant appreciation while the others who have rubbished any of the stated experts need to do a little homework.
Any major Black swan is extremely possible to come from left-field at any time going forward, as the world has never before been in such a precarious situation of fragility regarding the financial set of circumstances which we now find ourselves in (which is subject to so many existing conditions worldwide).
2017 will round out the cleansing process of puppet leaders as Germany & France are set to continue the norm of 2016 to further upset the elitist controllers who have had it all their own way for far too long!