The trade war has so far killed off about 300,000 jobs and cost Americans about $1.6 billion in tariffs. The taxes are driving up prices and businesses are cutting workers to make ends meet in the face of rising costs.
There will be no winner in this trade war, and already, the United States looks a lot like the loser. Casualties are coming in the form of farm bankruptcies and lost jobs, not to mention the rising costs of goods further harming those already living paycheck to paycheck. The fact is the trade war is causing measurable damage to the U.S. economy, with the pain likely to worsen in the coming months.
According to Yahoo News, forecasting firm Moody’s Analytics estimates that Trump’s trade war with China has already reduced U.S. employment by 300,000 jobs, compared with likely employment levels absent the trade war. Coupled with the fact that in July alone, U.S importers paid a record $6.8 billion in tariffs, according to Tariffs Hurt the Heartland, an alliance of more than 150 trade groups opposing the duties, the damages are noticeable.
The firm’s chief economist, Mark Zandi, told Yahoo Finance that the job toll from the trade war will hit about 450,000 by the end of the year if there’s no change in policy. By the end of 2020, the trade war will have killed 900,000 jobs, on its current course.
The tariffs imposed are taxes paid by American importers, who do their best to pass the added cost on to their own customers. Sometimes they can’t and have to absorb the tariffs as a higher cost that lowers profits and sees several people lose their jobs.
Not only are jobs being lost as businesses grapple with how to pay for the tariffs, but the trade deficit, a big sticking point Trump was attempting to fix by imposing tariffs and beginning the trade war, has worsened noticeably. Not only have the Chinese stopped buying Americans soybeans impacting the farming industry, but they’ve added their own tariffs to U.S. goods exported to the Asian nation.
Before President Trump began a trade war with China, the U.S. was shipping $1.47 billion more in hardwoods overseas than American companies were importing, according to a report by Fox News. That surplus shrank 12 percent last year as the U.S. imposed double-digit tariffs on Chinese goods, and Beijing responded in kind, according to the Hardwood Federation, and it’s likely to dwindle further this year as the standoff between the two countries heats up.
The resulting surge in the costs for supplies is forcing many business owners to choose between raising prices and laying off workers or both. The pain is likely to worsen too, with Trump boosting tariffs on some $200 billion in goods to 30 percent after Beijing pushed back against previous duties. “The trade war is already in its second year and with every escalation, the more it permanently impairs confidence,” said Michelle Meyer, an economist with Bank of America. “The unpredictable nature of the trade war will keep businesses, at best, in wait-and-see mode.”
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My predictions were:
Trump wins – massive recession (worse than it would otherwise be)
Hillary wins – no fly zone in Syria and more nonsense in Ukraine leading to a hot war with Russia.
Prediction 1 – yep.
Prediction 2 – well, fortunately, we’ll never know. OR WILL WE. Guess we’re going to find out circa 2021 if her lil buddies are similarly assholes extraordinaire.
Because Trump can’t win in 2020.
Enjoy it while you can, we are now a one party system.
NO NO NO the problem is not that. But the answer is don’t buy that China product!!!!!!! Then you don’t pay any tariff nor higher price and the retailers will stop buying from China and buy American as the China Cheap arse product is sitting on the shelf so no reason for retailer to order anymore. Problem solved. Trumps plan is awesome and needed to happen. Get real you libtards about your love for China you communist socialist pigs.
Go around your house and throw away all your Chinese products and see what you have left. Get a factory job paying what Chinese or Mexicans get which is about $4 an hour. I think your a Gov paid troll anyway.
Comment made using a computer and modem, both Made-in-China.
Trump Math is exactly what one would expect from a guy who has filed for bankruptcy SEVEN times. America will be #8.
My HP was made in Indianapolis, but hey whatever you say bud.
without meaning to, you hit the nail on the head with your comment:
much of this crap is made in China, a country determined to keep its hooks in us every way possible, from faulty, backdoored tech, to banking, science and other sectors of the infrastructure. The only way out is to cut them off. the first way to do that is tariffs.
keep focusing on the political name calling and meaningless figureheads and you’re playing right into their game: divide from within.
ht tps://ww w.blackopspartners.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/Chinas_Secret_War_Against_America_Epoch-Times_Infographic.jp g
remove 3 spaces.
THATS what its all about.
Components and circuit boards can be made, using private means, or it is meaningless to substitute Chinese Communism for our own state capitalism, which would just as certainly “keep its hooks in us every way possible, from faulty, backdoored tech, to banking, science and other sectors of the infrastructure.”
so we should just go ahead and accept the fully-fleshed out oppressive communist state that exists in all its glory currently that wishes for full global domination? I think not.
You do realize much of the dysfunction in this country is the result an ongoing attack on every level of our society – morals and morale, family structure, health,economics, politics and governance, education… by China?
THE tariffs are to get companies that are US out of CHINA. If they are here guess WHAT??????? NO TARIFFS. And jobs increase! Duh that is really hard to figure out ….. duh duh duh
Companies are leaving China already, but they aren’t coming to the US. They are going to other far east countries. The supply chain would have to be overhauled for them to come here. Plus China has pretty all the rare earths.
There should be a sign when entering this state that says “WELCOME WALMART SHOPPERS”. Bunch of troglodites akin to barnyard animals….
Mac-
I’m sure you do your research and report what you find mindfully.
But maybe this isn’t a trade “war” so to speak, but a sacrifice we must go through to save what is left of our economy.
In better days the U.S. Economy was 50% Manufacturing.
Today its 70% debt fueled consumerism while China is 50% manufacturing. Everyone knows they steal us blind! one example is: they sell 10 times more pirated Levies Jeans in China than they sell to Levi Strouse company for sale in the US.
I proffer that this is what professional politicians have brought us to, and if we all don’t pitch in and stick to our guns, and suffer if we must, We’re doomed!
Not sure if the trade war has had too much affect on imports from China as far as customer prices go. Most of the tariff costs have been negated by the devaluation of the yuan. The yuan has fallen almost to where it was in 2000, when it was 8:1, the worst it’s ever been. While it is true that import companies pay the tariff costs, the result of a devalued yuan makes the original price of the import goods cheaper so it’s basically a wash. So, cheaper for Chinese exports to US and more expensive for them to buy US goods.
Is this what Trump had envisioned when he started tariffs? I think not. He wants the reverse. But, the trouble is, when the Bretton Woods fixed exchange rate collapsed in 1971, anyone can now manipulate their currency to negate tariffs…albeit at the expense of their own people. This is why you need sound money that cannot be manipulated. And yes…ALL countries manipulate their currencies today.
But, also, I don’t think this trade war is actually about bringing jobs back to the US. Maybe in Donald’s mind it is. But I think Navarro and Lightheizer are part of the deep state that is trying to undermine China any way possible because they are getting to be too much of an economic power and the empire won’t stand for a challenge to their dollar hegemony. I’ve watched Navarro in some of his presentations long before he was part of the current administration and he is generally a hawk about China on everything…not just trade.
Another job killer is the fact that the vast majority of cattle use the self checkouts at the stores. I usually see 2 checkers working and 7-8 self checkouts full of imbiciles with their cards in hand. I refuse to use those and be a barnyard animal. I told them so too every time they say “the self checkout is open”. I don’t care if it takes me 3 times longer to checkout, I will not be a part of this BS!. Humanity, what an EPIC failure!
how exactly is self checkout killing jobs?
You had to know the cashier would go the same road as the full-service gas station attendant. Its a short term, part time gig for high school kids. Was never meant to be a ‘career’
I’m not cool with overpaying on groceries so the store can pay someone a “living wage” to stand in one spot and run groceries over a scanner, then stare at you vacantly while you finish the checkout process on the card reader. God forbid you pay cash, most of these folks cant make change without taking off their shoes.
I don’t like tariffs. They are a tax that Americans pay if they purchase those products. BTW most everything imported into the US has a Tariff on it. Only Congress can pass a tariff tax, so Trump is just exercising a tax power already authorized by congress, an authorization they can withdraw anytime they want to. So there is plenty of blame to go around.
The “trade war” certainly hurts American exporters, but as a whole, the harm to America by the trade imbalance was/and is far greater then the harm our little war is causing.
Our trade problems are caused by far more than product costs.
Unions, EPA, government regulation, Corporate ethics, social fabric degradation, just to name a few.
Trump is just fighting a delaying action, till we get our shiite together a little better.
B-I-N-G-O! Yes relik that’s REAL economics and the REAL solution. We need to restore laissez-faire free-market capitalism and other principles of conservatism.
That said I believe it doesn’t stand a chance until after the globalists trigger their ‘global economic reset’ (their phrase not mine). I’m with Rahm Emanuel, never let a serious crisis go to waste.
The trade war whining is Chicken Little nonsense spewed by ignoramuses. Here is the truth from people I pay good money to for investment research. I have paid them for 20 years now. I do that because they are consistently correct. Period.
FROM STANSBERRY RESEARCH:
On August 26, U.S. retailer Costco (COST) opened its newest branch… a sprawling 150,000 square-foot store with 1,200 parking spaces.
The retail area alone was big enough to fit three football fields. But it filled up quickly.
By 9:20 a.m., the wait time for a parking space was more than two hours long. Yet hundreds of people still waited to get in.
Inside the store, it was mayhem. Shoppers were practically fighting each other for gallon-jugs of Heinz ketchup, bottles of Kirkland multivitamins, and cases of Chilean Fuji apples.
Cashiers had lines stretching to the back of the store with two-hour waits. It was a chaotic scene, reminiscent of Black Friday shopping madness.
The store was so overwhelmed, it had to set a limit of 2,000 shoppers per day. And by the end of the week, Costco promised to open a second branch nearby.
The only thing was… this wasn’t happening in California, Oregon, or any other U.S. state.
It happened in Shanghai, China’s largest and most populated city. And it’s a perfect example of what the Western media gets wrong about China.
Chinese consumers aren’t worried about the trade war. They’re doing just fine. So are American companies doing business there.
Let me explain…
Costco is a perfect example of a U.S. brand that’s doing exceedingly well in China. Coffee giant Starbucks (SBUX) is another. The Chinese absolutely love Starbucks. The company now has well over 3,600 stores in the country today.
That includes the world’s second-largest Starbucks store in Shanghai, with a cavernous 30,000 square feet of space. Starbucks plans to double its stores in China over the next five years.
And get this… Kentucky Fried Chicken (or “KFC”) is China’s most popular fast-food chain, too. It currently has 5,900 outlets in China. That’s more than double what it had just 10 years ago.
These U.S. brands are growing rapidly in China. And it’s all because of the same factor… the country’s rising middle-class.
We can see it in what happened at Costco’s first store in Shanghai. It’s undeniable. It’s powerful. And it tells us that Chinese consumers couldn’t care less about the trade war.
Retail sales in China, for instance, were up 7.6% in July – more than double the rate of growth in the U.S. But you’d never know it from watching the news.
Just about everything we’re hearing about China lately has been negative. And, yes, a lot of the criticisms are well-deserved. (I’m no apologist for China.)
But as an investor, it’s important to know what you aren’t hearing. When all you hear about a country or market is bad, it’s a sign that most people – and most investors – aren’t looking at it.
China has become one of the most hated markets, no doubt. That means amazing situations – like the growth of China’s middle-class – are going unnoticed… And it leaves the door open for the smart money to enter.
The clearest proof of this is the performance of a little-known exchange-traded fund called the Global X MSCI China Consumer Discretionary Fund (CHIQ). It’s a targeted play on the consumer discretionary sector of China… It covers everything, including e-commerce, private education, food and drinks, travel, and traditional retailers.
Despite the ongoing trade war, CHIQ has outperformed both the S&P 500 Index and the Nasdaq so far this year.
CHIQ is up 29% since the start of the year. It has also gained 9% over the past month compared with a mere 2% gain for the U.S. market.
The point here is simple…
Investors are still worried about the trade war. And most of the news coverage on China is bad. But none of this news is hurting the Chinese consumer, or the growth of China’s middle-class. China is doing just fine. And investors who understand that can position themselves to make a lot of money.
Good investing,
Brian Tycangco
Stansberry Research
The trade deficit with China is $372B. For every 1% mutual rise in costs from tariffs Americans are bled out $3.72 Billion.
Still unconvinced? OK, we don’t need fancy schmancy economic analysts in suits. Just ask your wife when she gets back from Walmart.
and just how many jobs did NAFTA and those lopsided free trade agreements KILL? Those measures destroyed the Blue collar making producing middle class. I approve of the Tariffs. Just the threat of a hefty Tariff suddenly brought the Mexican authorities around to Trumps way of thinking. They suddenly did aabout face & started helping with the illegal hoards of invaders . The increased security on their southern borders. and began busing those who wanted to leave back to the southern border of mexico. A complete reversal from the former policy of enabling of illegal caravans.
There could be units of cash, housing, physical materials. I think that jobs are a resource, and are granted to foreign interests, via trade deals.
Since ‘made in America’ became popular, I have never seen a pic of the factory or stakeholders, not showing conspicuously-foreign quota cases.
Do the displaced ‘American’ workers look like the Red Army. Just asking.