This report was originally published at ZeroHedge.com
It is hardly a secret that few things could help Trump’s presidential campaign as much as a stock market crash.
As we reported back in January, while Wall Street typically worries about how politics might affect the market, Presidential candidates worry about how the stock market might affect their political outcomes. The reason for this is that historically, the market performance in the three months leading up to a Presidential Election has displayed an uncanny ability to forecast who will win the White House… the incumbent party or the challenger. Since 1928, there have been 22 Presidential Elections. In 14 of them, the S&P 500 climbed during the three months preceding election day. The incumbent President or party won in 12 of those 14 instances. However, in 7 of the 8 elections where the S&P 500 fell over that three month period, the incumbent party lost.
There are only three exceptions to this correlation: 1956, 1968, and 1980. Statistically, the market has an 86.4% success rate in forecasting the election!
A simple explanation for this relationship is because the stock market reflects, at least in theory, the economic outlook in the weeks leading up to the election; in practice – now that central banks push up the market the worse the global economy gets – it is the opposite, but a rising stock market certainly does miracles to one’s sense of financial net worth, and an unwillingness to deviate from the status quo. Clearly, a rising stock market indicates an “improving economy”, something Obama has pointed out so many times in the past several years, which means rising confidence and increases the chances of the incumbent party’s re-election.
Therefore, as we said in January, one’s time might be better spent from August through October watching the stock market rather than the debates if you want to know who will be President for the next four years.
* * *
Well, we are now almost exactly three months away from the November 8 election, and if Trump wants to really boost his chances, a market crash right now would be certainly most welcome by his campaign.
That may be why Trump on Tuesday urged his supporters holding 401-(k) to get out of equities as interest rates set by the Federal Reserve are inflating the stock market.
“I did invest and I got out, and it was actually very good timing,” the Republican presidential nominee said in a phone interview with Fox Business. “But I’ve never been a big investor in the stock market.” “Interest rates are artificially low,” Trump said. “The only reason the stock market is where it is is because you get free money.”
Trump also warned of “very scary scenarios” ahead for investors.
To be sure, Trump’s previous commentary on a stock market bubble has not won him many fans at the Fed, and certainly not Janet Yellen, whom he said back in May, he would “most likely” replace. Amusingly, Yellen has repeatedly said the Fed intends to raise interest rates gradually, as volatility and sudden drops in jobs and GDP, have delayed such plans. As a result, many have also said that a Fed rate hike before the presidential election is out of the question.
In an amusing tangent, Bloomberg here notes that “Republican and Democratic administrations alike typically don’t comment on the Fed’s monetary policy, out of respect for the central bank’s independence.” We can only assume that Bloomberg does not refer to the Fed’s “independence” from Goldman Sachs, which numerous civil and criminal cases have shown is not the case, the same Goldman which just happens to be one of Hillary’s biggest fans.
And an amusing paradox emerges when considering that none other than both Jeff Gundlach and, as of Sunday night, Goldman Sachs both urged investors to sell equities. One wonders if just like Trump was accused of being a Putin spy for diverging from the mainstream anti-Russia narrative, accusations will now emerge that he is also a Goldman double agent, seeking to crash the market just so Goldman can load up on the cheap.
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OT: Just saw the following article:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2016/08/02/obama_trump_unfit_woefully_unprepared_for_presidency_has_to_be_a_point_where_you_say_enough.html
Seems ironic when the words come from the mouth of the JV community organizer, who after 7+ years of on-the-job-training, is still woefully unprepared for the position.
is it still George Bush’s fault?
Yes, it is still Jorge Wmd Bush’s fault, John.
If that lying, mass murdering war criminal hadn’t gotten in bed with the blood thirsty, mostly jewish neocons from the PNAC gang (who played a role in 9-11, their long coveted New Pearl Harbor style event) and lied us into attacking Iraq and sticking our noses into the Middle East – which lead directly to the horrible quagmire that we are still stuck in and which is directly responsible for the flood of third world savages into Europe – if not for Bush’s lies and unjustified,Utopian wars to ‘spread democracy’ – the American people would not have gotten so pissed off at the GOP that they’d elect a virulently anti-White, hate filled, half black Communist to the White House. That’s right, John.
The nightmare of Obama is a direct consequence of two things: First, Jorge Wmd Bush left office with a 22 percent approval rating, once the American couch potatoes had finally realized that he and Cheney and their neocons LIED us into an unjustified war. And, second, in order to make sure Obama got elected – the Goldman Sachs gang made sure that the most hated and despised slab of excrement in the entire GOP – Juan McAmnestyMcCain was forced onto the GOP base, which predictably resulted in massive numbers of GOP conservatives refusing to hold their noses and vote for this disgusting, backstabbing, amnesty supporting, war mongering weasel.
I guess I’m good. I have no money or stocks. God Bless, James
James,
For most of us, it is easier said than done, since so many retirement programs now days are predicated on various investments in the stock market. I would love to hear how some of you have successfully transferred your 401-Ks, IRAs, etc., to none-stock investments.
Mac, perhaps this could be a topic you could post.
Thanks,
Louisiana Eagle,
eagerly waiting for practical answers
I had to leave my position to do it.
The company had a profit sharing program/ retirement fund. We had a professional who did a decent job but I wasn’t fully happy with him (never a plan to cash out and wait out a storm). Then the head office got sued for the program because it was considered there was not enough flexibility…. each individual company had its own plan with everyone’s money pooled.
We had our individual monies released to us into another retirement account we could “control”. As far as I was concerned it was a deathtrap of options. It was like Taco Bell, 12 ingredients and change ratios to make an investment vehicle that you couldn’t actually control.
Screw it, I quit to get control as well as other issues. I took a hit, but now I won’t be a caged animal led to slaughter. I will find my own vehicles for investment and it’s MY responsibility. No one else’s.
Methinks something tangible as a start.
Did you know, pension funds are not allowed to invest in Gold? That right there tells me they want the public invested in phony paper digital stocks than can evaporate to zero. No wealth preservation in pensions which will go bankrupt in an economic collapse. Just ask the state of Illinois. 401K holders too can be wiped out. 2008 all over again.
-WWTI..
Hear! Hear!
I have lots of stocks. Stocks of food, water, fuel, meds, ammo, weapons, seeds, etc. Sell them? I think not M’fer! On a cool note I was contacted by the pension fund of an employer from 26 years ago and found out I have 1600 bux coming 🙂 What shall I buy with it hmmmm? I have all the preps I can stand to store and metals too so maybe solar stuff I can make money on or perhaps an old honda dirtbike or a .338 lapua magnum?
Excellent. Solar would be a great investment.
Hello,
Its very easy to transfer your 401-K & IRA out of the stock market. You can easily hold the money in a FDIC insured bank such as Ally (which I have used for years), and receive around 1% interest with no risk of loss. You can also invest the money in real-estate and gold 401-K & IRA. This will keep your money safe, and out to the other side of another rescission or depression. Obviously, for an EMP, Super Volcano, Complete Collapse of the Gov, all will be lost.
Sorry, i disagree. This is NOT a good option. The FDIC has less than 1% in their kitty to withstand what is coming. This will NOT keep your money safe! Putting it in a gold 401-k or IRA is also very dangerous. That”gold” is held in a bank safe deposit box, not by you. When this thing comes crashing down and the banks are closed, so will your safe deposit box! Another dangerous location. If you don’t hold it, you don’t own it! Take the hit, cash out, and purchase your own PM! That way you own it! Nobody can touch it! When this Donkey Dirt hits the fan, ALL bets are off!
check out a self directed IRA
More info on self directed ira/401k please.
I know the basics. Wondering has anyone compared prices to set up and custodians?
[email protected]
Thanks everyone for your insight.
Louisiana Eagle
that chart looks to me like more proof that the elections have been rigged for years!! BANKSTERS control more than most people will ever know!!
If you are middle class tptb are experts at whittling away at your monies until you are on a measurable decline, and can nearly predict the year you’ll “run into the red” then set you up with a “just in time loan offer” to free you of thousands of even more dollars to easily ‘reset’ your business. But, it actually works no differently than do Reverse Mortgages, something you NEVER WISH TO DO. imho
me either.
I have nothing either.
Get married lose everything.
It does not matter all the NOBLES are SET.
As for us PEASANTS tough S–t YOU ARE EXPENDABLE.
Standing by, and waiting.
Marriage #4 here. #1 turned to a 100% alcohol diet and being I was gone in the Navy more than I was home everything just fell apart. #2 was a Navy girl who oddly changed her mind about marriage, then six years after divorce took her own life by gunshot. Two months later wife #1 died of alcohol-liver problems. Met gorgeous blonde and decided to pool resources. Bought a yacht in need of a few renovations. (All of the tasks were chores that I could do, but over a time frame of two years or more. She wanted it done in 3 months then went psycho on me. Long story short she just left by jet one Florida night for Maine never to return, and the ship was seized by The Sheriff (to prevent ME from “stealing marital property by leaving the dock”, and I was held powerless to do a damn thing ..even as her captain and the vessel was NOT registered in The USA (it was Valetta, Malta) with a shipping business based in Spain) Tell me THAT wasn’t a screw job and a half from The US Coast Guard!
We have not been able to locate the vessel for a bit over sixteen years, though she was once positively sighted in Galveston Bay, TX. Then poof, she was gone to El Carib.
So yes, women DO sometimes come at an incredible prices, or prices, but #4 is one who is in need of assistance (medically), though she’d be happy to feign for herself, yet still remain married, at least I’ve found a like-minded “player” who will actually go that extra mile with you without question or looking back.
That’s the kind of girl you wanna marry. Jean wearing, gun-toting, totally laid back chick who’s just perfect for you and heaven-sent. They are OUT there (and actually have brains).
Besides, you don’t wanna do The Apocalypse alone …watch it with somebody!!!!!!!
Equorial, you are a true survivor!
I’m still praying for a good husband. Most men seem like pansies, or make me feel like I’m crazy (wait til everything crashes, and see how crazy I am) for prepping and for believing the bible. That’s ok. I’d rather have the right one than a psycho.
Lol!
After numerous attempts, I met a lady from Ukraine who was born in Russia. I saw her, asked her to marry me the first week we were together. She had a hard life, but survived leaving her with enthusiasm for the future, a great sense of humour and a deep love for her husband. She is loyal, does all in her power to please and care for her husband. We are going on 12 years now, and we are both fighting the old age virus. But married to her is about as close to heaven as one can get in a marriage. If you give yourself to your mate, you have nothing left to satisfy and likewise from her. I live for her and she lives for me. The End.
Comment In General: A “Crash”means a “Crash” not a tumble, stumble or hic-up. A “crash” is devastating, chaos, everything broken or useless. Think 1929-1932. Soup lines, 50% unemployment etc. But in today’s culture, think riots, brother against brother etc. If the dollar fails, becomes worthless, think Zimbabwe. A friend was there when it started- the monthly income bought less one month and even less the second month. The third month, they did not receive a check- it was useless. They left the country, penniless after years of communal farming. Pensions gone, government checks gone, military pensions gone, all worthless papers. Think reality- no dreams or fantasies- think Venezuela, a city filled with flowers, dancing, night clubs and business. Today, they slaughter zoo animals for food. Wake Up America- nothing is as it seems.
401 retirement accounts can be converted to precious metal that you possess without a penalty. At this time I believe any and all stock accounts should be liquidated asap. The conservative and prudent investment must be controlled by you not some monolithic bank somewhere. The problem is all those accounts involve debt and the ability to get your money when you want it. Right now the line is short but just wait closer to the election or a terrorist problem and you will maybe be in a very long line.
I am VERY worried about that two months between Trump’s election and Obama’s leaving office. God knows what havoc Obama can create.
Well CW, I’m sure that rascal knows exactly what he’ll be doing in that time frame.
Seems that “something” could about be dumped up on us at any time and we’d be nearly powerless to do much about it, unless it was a gun law, and hell, we’d just ignore it (at most). *But, “they” already have that much figured out, so that’s not how it could possibly go down). It remains a mystery to be solved quick tho!
The left will blame it on Trump if it does happen. They have never taken responsibility for any of their failures, ever.
Janet Yellen hasn’t got a clue. None at the Fed do. They’re a lost ball in the high weeds.
Luckily I’m far enough away from retirement that I can view a large economic crash as a good thing. When it happens it will be a great opportunity for those with cash on hand to invest in companies that will bounce back quicker like Wal-Mart or Amazon. Its going to get ugly tho. Dont wast money on gold yet. It will crash like everything else. Deflationary crash will see gold, stocks, real estate at all time lows. Beans, bullets and bandaids to get you through whatever happens during what will probably be a 15yr recovery, but keep as much cash on hand as humanly possible. Not in a bank! We are still the best of the worst. Global markets are all crap but we are still doing better than most. That should keep the dollar strong and make for huge profits for those that make it through.
I don’t do single stocks never have other than some penny stocks years ago.
Nor do I have any regrets about missed opportunities with the anti -capitalist blue chips.
Forever will I believe that Sam Walton went to his grave regretting the day he appointed Hillary. Clinton to the board of directors at Walmart.
Walmart was a good company prior to hillary and her coven turning it into a Mecca for former guest of the Jerry Springer Show.
…..:::::::::::: ⛄️
We all hoped for a good retirement. Seems to be getting a little harder.
Hey, has anyone else noticed the lack of bumper stickers this year supporting their candidate, Hillary or Trump?
I think their are too many crazies on the left that will key your car. Illegal immigrants, BLM, gangs, welfare recipients, etc that constitute the left today – they are all mentally unstable crazies.
Jules.
Everyone is now the Grey Man in Politics.
I remember before the last two ‘elections’ seeing too many cars with deep key scratches if they were sporting any bumper stickers other than obama’s hope and change.
I put a Trump sticker on my car a few weeks ago. I was nervous about what might happen when I drove into the city; thankfully, it was an uneventful trip. I have seen only one other Trump sticker and that we thirty miles from the town I live in. I have seen a few Bernie stickers but have yet to see a Hilary sticker
Just goes to show how divided we’ve become as a nation.
TPTB divide and conquer tactic sure worked. Imho they are all psychopaths out for themselves. Doesn’t matter what political party label they tout.
Hey Erv – Double dare you to do that with a Hillary sticker.
Kidding. Joke. Please DON’T!
MAC – Although I do not have the opportunity to post comments that often, I really appreciate this site.
I understand the moderation process and am sensitive to your dilemma regarding spam and that you are dealing with an onslaught of spam on a daily basis, so I am not questioning why some posts are held up in moderation for a few hrs or even half a day. I get that, it makes perfect sense, and appreciate that we don’t have to sort through the spam. So I am not at all questioning the delay.
But I am wondering/curious about why some comments are posted almost immediately, or at the most only 20 minutes later, while others are in moderation for a few hours. Just wondering about how and why is it that some posts get posted so quickly, almost immediately? Thanks.
Hi Jules, great question — the issue is one of manpower. Right now I am the only one moderating comments, but will hopefully have some assistance in the very near future so that we are in here approving anything being auto-moderated by the AKISMET system at least once an hour during daytime hours ( 8am – 8pmish).
Apologies to all for any delays, we do eventually get almost all comments out there — a solid 99% of posted comments are either automatically posted or released from moderation and maybe 1% or so are deleted for various reasons (like spam).
Thanks,
MAc
The stock market always has been rigged. You can buy land, but they will tax that and take it. Buy food.
Any thing you have on this earth can be taken from you. You were born with nothing and will die with nothing. Best thing about being poor is you have nothing to lose. I never cared about $ all that much why should I. I will never see any real $. I hope the market collapses. My house is paid off I own my truck have the tools and knowledge to get by with dignity. Let it rip.
Gerald Celente is famous for saying, “if you can’t hold it in your hand, you don’t own it”. Very true in today’s digital money landscape. I’m sure there are people out there that never use paper money or coin because of debit cards or direct bill payments from checking accounts.
Now, consider a banking crash/collapse. FRNs will be accepted for a little while into the crash- which will be moderated by the Fed and structural controls to slow the damage (aka-the dreaded “Bank Holiday”). ATMs flash out of order, or nothing at all.
So at best, you’ve got a few days to buy what you need for the immediate future with cash-gasoline included. Because, when the gas stops flowing everybody stops. Keep your vehicle full at all times in case you gotta drive to rescue granny from the concrete jungle.
When credit/debit cards cease functioning the real fun starts. Our supply chain is said to be 3 days wide and 1000 miles long. Meaning it takes 3 days to get to Wally world and travels over a thousand miles by truck. What you’ve got in the house is what you’ve got to work with. When everybody lays out of work because there is no point in going to a job that cannot pay you, the mayhem ensues. It’s a freekin scary scenario if you stop and think about it. No more comments or entertainment reading on SHTFPLAN website. Only Blank screens when the internet providers go dark.
I think Americans will truly shine then, when we finally realize there is no “I” in “us”. We all gotta pull together as a community, or die. The Walking Dead was a warm up exercise/training session.
But you need the land to become self-supporting or everything loses its purpose in prepping. The land is the tool you use to create more foods to survive with. (And barter, trade, whatever).
Equorial
I agree that land is key. Not many properties are taken by eminent domain and not many more are sold for taxes. Don’t build a McMansion. Silly to lose a huge degree of self-sufficiency over whining about taxes. I am Libertarian and even I accept tax burden.
I keep thinking everyday someone is going to come up with the piece of the puzzle , I’m missing and I’ll slap my forehead saying now I get it….. but nothing yet.
I see Farrakhan and the Nation of Islam hating on White Supremacist and at the end of the day both groups blaming their woes on Jews.
Meanwhile an Indian guy just bought another motel and a Chinaman just bought another downtown high rise … as blacks , whites, and hispanics are online fighting over Kim Kardashian’s latest Instagram .
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=OpjSt_tlzuI
I keep thinking everyday someone is going to come up with the piece of the puzzle , I’m missing and I’ll slap my forehead saying now I get it….. but nothing yet.
I see Farrakhan and the Nation of Islam hating on White Supremacist and at the end of the day both groups blaming their woes on Jews.
Meanwhile an Indian guy just bought another motel and a Chinaman just bought another downtown high rise … as blacks , whites, and hispanics are online fighting over Kim Kardashian’s latest Instagram .
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=OpjSt_tlzuI
Nobody to blame but me
Yes the markets also knew about 9/11 and shorted airline stocks but apparently the people that placed the bets could not be traced as if money leaves no paper trail which would only ever happen if the bankers were involved in the transactions.
The £GBP jumped up within seconds of MP Jo Cox’s death before the BREXIT vote and long before anyone else knew about the killer apparently crying out “British First” so I don’t think the BBC will be following that case when her killer is taken to court.
Follow the money it all leads to the same place.