This article was originally published by Michael Snyder at The Economic Collapse Blog.
Michael is the author of Get Prepared Now: Why A Great Crisis Is Coming & How You Can Survive It
April 2017 could turn out to be one of the most important months in U.S. history that we have seen in a very long time. On April 6th, Donald Trump attacked Syria on the 100th anniversary of the day that the U.S. officially entered World War I, and now at the end of this month we could be facing an unprecedented political crisis in Washington. On Friday, members of Congress left town for their two week “Easter vacation”, and they won’t resume work until April 25th. What this means is that Congress will have precisely four days when they get back to pass a bill to fund government operations or there will be a government shutdown starting on April 29th.
Up to this point, there has been very little urgency by either party to move a spending bill forward. It is almost as if everyone is already resigned to the fact that a government shutdown will happen. The Democrats will greatly benefit from a government shutdown because they can just blame the entire mess on the Republicans. But for the GOP, this is essentially the equivalent of political malpractice.
To me, there is simply no way that Congress is going to be able to agree on a bill that funds the entire government in just four days. And it turns out that this upcoming deadline comes exactly on the 100th day of Trump’s presidency…
The U.S. government is poised to shut down on Day 100 of Donald Trump’s presidency, unless Congress can pass a new spending bill or a continuing resolution before the current one expires on April 28.
Since Congress is currently on a two-week recess, there will be a sense of urgency to get a new bill passed once they reconvene on April 25. Leaders in both chambers would have four days to craft a new proposal that each side can agree on and get it on the president’s desk for Trump to sign.
If the Republicans control the White House, the Senate and the House of Representatives, why will it be so difficult to get an agreement on a spending bill?
Well, first of all, look at how difficult it was for the Republicans to agree on a bill to repeal and replace Obamacare. At this point, it doesn’t look like that is going to happen at all.
More importantly, any bill to fund the government is going to require 60 votes in the Senate. The “nuclear option” that the Republicans just used to push the Gorsuch Supreme Court nomination through is not available in this case under current Senate rules because a spending bill of this nature would not qualify.
So the Democrats have leverage, and they plan to use it to the maximum. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer is already promising to block any spending bill that includes funds for a border wall or that defunds Planned Parenthood…
The threat from Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and other Democratic leaders sets up a climactic first showdown with the president, particularly with their inclusion of Trump’s signature border wall proposal.
“If Republicans insist on inserting poison pill riders such as defunding Planned Parenthood, building a border wall, or starting a deportation force, they will be shutting down the government and delivering a severe blow to our economy,” Schumer said in a statement.
Up until now, Trump hasn’t needed Democratic votes to stock his cabinet or advance the repeal of Obamacare, but a spending bill keeping the government open is subject to a 60-vote threshold in the Senate.
Do you understand what this means?
President Trump is going to be under an immense amount of pressure to end the government shutdown once it begins, but to do so will mean that he has to give up his goal of getting a border wall.
Do you think that Trump will just throw in the towel and forget about his beloved border wall after giving countless speeches promising one?
It is a game of chicken between Trump and the Democrats, and I don’t think that either side will give in easily.
Of even greater importance is the debate over the funding of Planned Parenthood.
There are members of the Freedom Caucus that will absolutely not vote for any spending bill that includes funding for Planned Parenthood. But without the Freedom Caucus, there aren’t enough Republican votes to get a spending bill through the House of Representatives.
Alternatively, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer is vowing that his party will block any funding bill that attempts to defund Planned Parenthood in the Senate.
If Planned Parenthood is not defunded now, it never will be defunded. This is one of the most pivotal moments in recent U.S. political history, and the outcome is going to have extraordinary consequences for our nation.
For those that are optimistic that there will not be a government shutdown, do you actually expect me to believe that this battle over the funding of Planned Parenthood will somehow get resolved in just four days?
Give me a break.
And of course there are dozens of other major issues that have to be resolved as well. For example, Senator McCain is promising note to vote for any bill unless it includes an enormous increase in military spending, while many Senate Democrats would be very much against such a move.
I don’t see any way that a government shutdown is going to be avoided at this point, and the longer it goes on the more financial markets are going to get rattled.
Meanwhile, we continue to get even more signs that a substantial slowdown has begun for the U.S. economy. Last week, we learned that only 98,000 jobs were added in March, and that was only about half of what most analysts were expecting.
And since it takes approximately 150,000 jobs a month just to keep up with population growth, that means that we are losing ground.
At the same time, the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow forecasting model is now projecting that U.S. GDP growth for the first quarter of 2017 will be just 0.6 percent on an annualized basis.
That is absolutely pathetic, and as I have said before, I wouldn’t be surprised at all if we actually end up with a negative number for the first quarter.
If we do indeed get a negative number for the first quarter and that is followed by another negative number for the second quarter, that will mean that a new recession has already started right now but we just haven’t gotten official confirmation yet.
And lots of other things are already happening which have not happened since the last recession. For instance, this is the first time since the last financial crisis when there has been no growth for commercial and industrial lending for at least six months.
In addition, commercial bankruptcies spiked during the last recession, and now it is happening again…
Commercial bankruptcy filings, from corporations to sole proprietorships, spiked 28% in March from February, the largest month-to-month move in the data series of the American Bankruptcy Institute going back to 2012.
Of course consumer bankruptcies are rising at an alarming rate as well. The following comes from Wolf Richter…
In December, bankruptcy filings rose 4.5% from a year earlier. In January they rose 5.4%. It was the first time consumer bankruptcies rose back-to-back since 2010. I called it “a red flag that’ll be highlighted only afterwards as a turning point.”
In March, consumer bankruptcy filings rose 4% year-over-year, to 77,900, the highest since March 2015, when 79,000 filings occurred, according to the American Bankruptcy Institute data. The turning point has now been confirmed.
If you would like, I could keep talking about the bad economic news for a couple thousand more words. U.S. credit card debt has just surpassed the one trillion dollar mark, a major crisis has arrived for the U.S. auto industry, thousands of retail stores are closing all over America, our pension funds are underfunded by trillions of dollars, and the U.S. national debt is now sitting at a grand total that is just shy of 20 trillion dollars. The only reason that we have not crossed that 20 trillion dollar mark yet is because the debt ceiling deadline has already passed, and that is another thing that Congress needs to address very quickly if they want to avoid a major crisis.
Needless to say, the last thing that we need at this point is another war or two on top of everything else.
Unfortunately, a U.S. aircraft carrier strike group headed by the USS Carl Vinson is heading toward North Korea right at this moment, and Russia and Iran are promising to “respond with force” to any new U.S. attacks on Syria. I will be writing quite a bit more about all of this on End Of The American Dream later today.
Those that were hoping for some sort of “reprieve” under Donald Trump can forget all about that now. The pace of global events is really starting to accelerate, and the U.S. is already in a more precarious position than it was at any point in 2016.
The clouds have been building for a very long time, and now the storm is almost upon us. I hope that you have been getting prepared, because a day of reckoning for the United States of America is closing in very rapidly.
Michael T. Snyder is a graduate of the University of Florida law school and he worked as an attorney in the heart of Washington D.C. for a number of years.
Today, Michael is best known for his work as the publisher of The Economic Collapse Blog and The American Dream.
If you want to know what is coming and what you can do to prepare, read his latest book Get Prepared Now: Why A Great Crisis Is Coming & How You Can Survive It.
Shut it down. No skin off my dick.
This is the correct approach. If Trump has to have his signature on who gets money out of the treasury, well, No reason to give paychecks to the CIA, FBI, Congress, Senate, Dept of Education, IRS, HCFA, infact, all. No paychecks to any and all govt staffers.
Then let us take a look at who is left.
That’s why Gold Jumped up $19 today to $1274. and Silver jumped up also $.39 cents to $18.33 Both well on their way to new highs.
Got TGLDX yet? Better look into it.
I’ve heard this same ol’ song-and-dance for decades. Govt. never runs out of money. They won’t shut down unless there’s an EMP, nuke war, etc. Snyder again? Oh well, back to sleep.
Their vacation never ends
Good article;
I hate to say it, but go ahead and shut it down, do some research in what that really means and what agencies actually get shut down before anyone panics.
Second, does the .gov not shut down every night, or on the weekends, how about Congress going on ANOTHER 2 week vacation, I sure dont get two weeks off for Easter, do you? Please SHUT IT DOWN, we the tax-payers will be better off without more and more of the ‘Laws’ they spew out everyday…. God knows they did ABSLOUTLY NOTHING about Obama-Careless.
As far as the .gov going bankrupt and running out of money, what the hell, they are putting those of that actually work in bankruptcy every day. AND their efforts to ‘fix’ the economy fail every time, so they just print more and more worthless money and credit.
People need to remember, the .gov does absolutely NOTHING besides regulates what We-The-People do, they TAKE the working class’s money in forms of Taxes, and GIVE it to the leaches in this country/world. The .gov does not produce anything, they go not grow food, they do not practice medical (thank GOD) the .gov does not build automobiles or manufacture goods of any kind.
Well I need to take that back, they do get us into a LOT of Wars and get a hell of a LOT of our people killed.
If anyone, with more than two working brain cells, believes the economy is not going to fail, well I have some Ocean Front property in Arizona for sale.
Please let the .gov shut down….. Maybe some of those idiots will see We-The-People are getting really tired of their Lies and BS.
FYI, just because the .gov shuts down, I would bet you $$$$ to Doughnuts that IRS payment check still gets cashed…..
NRP
Please shut this clown show down this time – and for good.
There isn’t no such thing!!!
We could only hope there was. If they “shut it down” they just go on vacation and get paid latter.
With a shut down nothing changes. Nothing at all.
Sgt.
The GOP will be held responsible if the government should shut down. The Demonrats will be whooping and hollering and dancing in the streets if this should happen! Better be prepared for riots and looting.
Louisiana Eagle
Held responsible for what?
Shutting down non essential operations for a week ? The EBT cards still churn out , tax refunds still go out , nothing stops that anyone cares about .Life goes on ….
lets make it permanent , then the swamp WILL get drained .
Government shutdown , pfffft.
I think the author of this article is likely wrong (fortunately so have all his predictions). Neither the Rep.’s or the Dem.’s want a real gov’t shutdown. There is a difference in ideology between the parties, but not in practice. If both parties can agree in any one thing it is they are both statists, that is, they both love a big powerful gov’t. Both are equally responsible for the now irrevocable financial disaster this country finds itself. There will be a big show, a few individuals in both parties will protest, and maybe a short gov’t shutdown for PR purposes, but after all the politicians believe they have bamboozled the public there is no doubt the debt ceiling limit will be raised a great amount. Like all the previous budgets “fights” this one will be settled behind closed doors. Then both parties will make speeches that each party had to sacrifice but the country can now move on. Even the markets will be spooked a week or two. But ultimately, it will turn out to be a big yawn. I’m afraid all of those that want to see national financial and economic destruction will have to wait another year or two for the next funding crisis.
Bill, after all it’s Michael Snyder. What can any of us expect from him but BS?
Another hat trick performance. And a bad one at that.
Just a nutter day on KapputHill, wherein they will once again conjure up the mystical power of CNTL-P.
Soon new DullAIRs will take to the sky to appease the powers of the all-mighty DOWtfull.
Once again the land will here the cry of the YELLEN:
“It is unPOPable!”
Peace will come about as the room is filled with the glorious chants of “buy, buy, buy”.
Ah, to be a witness of such glory? Leads me to weep in silence.
Where I hail from we’ve a saying when a well runs dry – “shut ‘er down Virgil, she’s a-suckin’ mud”. Boys and girls, all that is coming out of Washington D.C. is a lot worse than mud. ‘Shut ‘er down’. Let the riots come. Stand fast and strong.
The Demoturds want a shut down to happen on the Republican watch, they would like nothing better. The Demoturds are threatening a shut down over Trump’s promise to build a wall on the Mexican border. If those Demoturds ever want to win another election they better come around.
And the Fraud marches on.
March of the Frauds.
Another threat of a government shut down. Oh lawd. What I find more concerning is the fact no one seems to care in the government. “Lets go on Easter break, color eggs and eat some ham. We’ll have fours days to figure it out when we get back.” Maybe no one will care about it because we’ll be neck deep in WWIII by then.
Shut it down, 2 years oughta do it
Shut both parties down,they just can.t operate anymore. Why encourage them?
But! But! All the national parks and monuments will be closed! OK with me.There should be no continuing resolutions on the budget. Enough!
Yup, enough of this bullshit, pass a budget that remains within revenue, if it means illegals have to cook their own burritos so be it
Id like to hit schumer in the face with a framing axe
You’ll have to throw a good axe away. The smell will never rub off.
PO’d patriot, I’ve got a couple of new SOG tomahawks I need to try out…..LOL.
He’s already got a hatchet face.
Serious question.
If the government shuts down 10 days before the first of May, what happens to EBT, Social Security, Medicaid and all the other Welfare payments. Will they still be paid or will we see chaos?
Only 4 days,hell,extend congresses vacation right thru the summer!
If the govt shuts down (as the dems want)….no EBT, SNAP,SS, etc…mass rioting ensues. Exactly what the dems want. Then they will go for impeachment, calling Trump incompetent. NOT MY PRESIDENT they will scream in the streets. And WAR will break out, bringing the rest of the masses out in protest. We’re on the verge of horror. Can’t you smell it.?
I love the smell of Napalm in the morning! Shut’er down!
What’s that on the Horizon that I can barely see? The potential for war and great calamity?
Off to places far nether our Congress goes, maybe subterranean? What the hell, who knows?
Alas what was I thinking? More cool-aide I must start drinking!
For the answer must be a simple “Nay”.
Same old shit, different day.
BOOM.
Shut the bitch down. Let the entitled kings riot. We need a good culling.
Well word has it from a memo that we will be starting the FEMA camps soon to hold rioters while we process them. When the dollar plunges and everything stops on Wall St and gold becomes 7000 an ounce we will be happy and hiding in our bunkers. No matter how hard you knock, we ain’t opening the blast doors for no one.??
They will just put an extension on it like they always do. Nothing to see here.
Same old crap. They always pass a emergency temporary funding measure. Under Obama there was never any budget. Just emergency funding extensions. The Government spending will continue to increase.