SURVEY: 34% Of Economists Expect A Recession By 2021

by | Aug 19, 2019 | Headline News | 14 comments

In a new survey, about one-third of economists expect the United States to be gripped by a recession by the year 2021. According to a survey published on Monday,  34% percent of economists surveyed by the Nationalist Association for Business Economics said a recession will begin by 2021. That’s a 9-point uptick since February.

The evidence continues to mount that the economy will experience a downturn, although most don’t know exactly when it’ll all happen. The good news is that only 2% of the economists surveyed said a recession will begin this year and 28% said one will begin in 2020. The general consensus appears to be that summer of 2020 will be the major downturn leading to a recession, but again – no one really knows.

According to The Hill, some of the economists surveyed also expressed concern that President Trump‘s tariffs and higher budget deficits could hurt the economy. Trump and his administration officials have been dismissive of widespread warnings of a recession after the increased tariffs imposed on China during an escalating trade war between the two nations. Officials have dismissed claims that those tariffs are hurting American farmers and consumers, maintaining that they only hurt China despite conflicting claims from experts, consumers, and struggling farmers.

“I don’t think we’re having a recession. We’re doing tremendously well,” Trump told reporters Sunday before departing from New Jersey. The mainstream media continues to report that a strong economy is crucial to Trump’s 2020 reelection campaign.

Just 5 percent of the economists surveyed said a comprehensive trade deal would result from the latest round of U.S. and China trade negotiations, the AP reports. Four percent said a superficial agreement is possible and almost 25 percent expected no agreement. According to a report by The Associated Press, trade between the U.S. and China, the two biggest global economies, has plunged. Trump decided last Wednesday to postpone until December 15 tariffs on about 60% of an additional $300 billion of Chinese imports, granting a reprieve from a planned move that would have extended duties to nearly everything the U.S. buys from China.

The 226 economists who were surveyed mainly work for corporations and trade associations. The survey was conducted between July 14 and August 1. That was before the White House announced 10% tariffs on the additional $300 billion of Chinese imports, the Chinese currency dipped below the seven-yuan-to-$1 level for the first time in 11 years and the Trump administration formally labeled China a currency manipulator.

Is There A Hidden Political Agenda? The Mainstream Media Is Suddenly Full Of Stories About The Coming Recession

Whether the recession is coming in 2020, or 2021, preparations for it should already be underway.  Make sure you have some money saved up and physical gold if you want insurance against a flailing dollar. Making sure your debts are paid down as much as possible will also be beneficial.

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    1. rellik

      I suppose the remaining 66% don’t think there will be a recession?

      • Anonymous

        The other 66% think it’s here now.

    2. The Deplorable Renegade

      Rellik, we’ve been in a recession since the 2008 ‘financial crisis’.

      • rellik

        I’ve been in an economic depression since I retired in 2010.
        Chopped my pay by more than 50%.
        Recessions don’t mean much to me. It certainly doesn’t reduce my cost of living.
        I was trying to make a comment on how the positive part, if there is one, of the economic picture is downplayed.
        If only a third of economists in that business sector thinks the economy will go to shit, someone else must think it is OK,
        but that doesn’t sell Gold, silver, or books.

        • Nailbanger

          That stuff really doesnt matter over here does it,
          Typically when the continent goes ito recession we get a bump up because people are trying to shelter their cash so they start buying and building here, thats why it appears to lag here, we never really go into a recession but rather return to normal, that may be changing with the tens of thousands of transplants but i doubt it will change much

          • rellik

            You probably have a bigger population growth problem than I do, but lots of mainland people are building and buying.
            Driving some property prices to the millions, just a mile Mauka from me.
            Everybody I know that wants a job has one( or two).
            No recession here.
            Off subject;
            I just hatched out 5 Cuckoo Marans. No incubator, all natural.
            I’m going to band that Hen and keep her forever!

    3. Daniel Silvan

      When economists actually get something right, they become famous for doing so. Also, Ocasio-Cortez has a degree in economics.

      • Jim

        AOC is already famous, for being a total idiot. If she does get something right, the stopped clock and blind squirrel analogies apply.

    4. rock n roll

      Deplorable Renegade is right on. All smoke , mirrors and BS from governments and the FED on their statistics.

    5. Plan twice, prep once

      In a Bloomberg version of this article it led one to believe that a recession was inevitable. That the majority of economists thought it unavoidable.

      The truth, most economists thought not.

      The trump economy must be stopped by the left.

      All those who push a crash are America’s enemy.

      Yes, the FED wants a recession to stop Trump, but they can’t make it too obvious.

      Over decades, the FED created boom bust, recessions. They, the banisters made billions. Trump is fighting them. His life is in danger.

    6. Bert

      No collapse unless the high fructose corn syrup runs out. LOL

    7. Jim

      The other 66% expect a depression?

    8. Anonymous

      buy low, sell high

    9. Tony Baloney

      When the US MSM goes to such historically unprecedented lengths to knowingly, and now openly (with the recent New York Times expose) subvert a sitting US President, then I feel historical attitudes regarding “Freedom of the Press” need to be critically re-examined. Media organizations that repeatedly spew incorrect and purposely negative information need to be punished. The MSM is stepping up to a very dangerous line…and I don’t think the public would really care if a few of their leaders went to jail for what amounts to treason in the form of a campaign of lies. That creates a whole new set of problems as now the precedent is set that future Presidents can target the Media whenever they wish. To me, I’m OK with that environment, as the pendulum will always swing back as public opinion dictates. And right now public opinion is not on the side of the Media. Throw some people in jail and see how the “talking points” suddenly cease.

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