This morning The Daily Sheeple reported that the biggest sun spot in recent history had been identified on the sun and that it had moved into position facing earth. The spot is so large that the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration says it could swallow three earths.
(Photo by Rocky Raybell : Sun spot AR1944 is so big it can be seen with amateur telescopes)
The spot was mostly quiet for the last few days and wasn’t directly facing earth, though a smaller Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) glanced the planet in the early hours of January 7th.
Then at 12:32 Central Time it went wild:
Massive sunspot AR1944 has erupted. The X1 flare has sent a coronal mass ejection into space, and it’s heading towards Earth.
…
NOAA has upped the risk from further X-class flares to 50% for the next 24 hours. Risk of M-class up to 80%
The NASA-ESA Heliophysics Fleet is monitoring the sunspot and CME. Depending on its speed it could take anywhere from a day to three days to hit earth. NBC News reports that the flare is already responsible for radio traffic disruptions.
(Pictured: NASA’s Solar Dynamics Observatory shows a blast of activity originating from the center of the sun’s disk on Tuesday)
Though an X-1 Class flare is not going to cause widespread power outages across earth, the possibility of increased activity on the sun has been noted by NASA and other researchers, as the sunspot destabilizes further.
The rapid formation of sunspot AR1944 and the earth-facing ejections highlight how quickly life on earth could change if the right conditions are met.
In the summer of 2012 a massive solar flare was ejected by the sun and narrowly missed earth.
Had it occurred just a week prior, the highly charged particles would have struck earth and, according to CU-Boulder Professor Daniel Baker, would have led to nothing short of a technological disaster across the globe.
The CME itself was massive… and its speed was unprecedented, clocking in at 7 million miles per hour.
While typical coronal mass ejections from the sun take two or three days to reach Earth, the 2012 event traveled from the sun’s surface to Earth in just 18 hours.
“The speed of this event was as fast or faster than anything that has been seen in the modern space age,” said Baker.
…
Had it hit Earth, the July 2012 event likely would have created a technological disaster by short-circuiting satellites, power grids, ground communication equipment and even threatening the health of astronauts and aircraft crews.
But that flare wasn’t a once-in-a-million-years event.
A decade ago in 2003 NASA identified the most powerful flare in recorded observational history:
In 2003 a solar flare emitted by the sun was the most powerful in recorded observational history, measuring in at levels so high that had it hit earth it would have likely disabled everything from the internet and mobile phones, to water utility plants and the whole of the U.S. electricity infrastructure.
That event was originally thought to have been an X-28 class flare, more powerful than necessary to take out modern electronics across earth. It was later revised to a “whopping” x-45.
These events occur quite regularly in the grand scheme. Recent observations suggest at least several occurrences in a lifetime. For the last hundred years since electronics made their way into our society we’ve been lucky, having experienced just minor disturbances.
But as the last decade shows, it can happen at any time and the after-effects would be catastrophic.
This is what prompted Senior Member of the House Homeland Security Committee Congresswoman Yvette Clarke to warn that the likelihood of a severe geo-magnetic event capable of crippling our electric grid is 100%.
Despite the various earthbound threats that exist, a solar flare is arguably the most probable threat we face as a civilization.
As Congressman Roscoe Bartlett has noted in the documentary Urban Danger, if an event of this magnitude hit earth we’d revert back to the stone age overnight:
We could have events in the future where the power grid will go down and it’s not, in any reasonable time, coming back up. For instance, if when the power grid went down some of our large transformers were destroyed, damaged beyond use, we don’t make any of those in this country. They’re made overseas and you order one and 18 months to two years later they will deliver it. Our power grid is very vulnerable. It’s very much on edge. Our military knows that.
So how does one survive such an event, where pretty much everything we have come to expect in our just-in-time modern society comes to a screeching halt within seconds of the disaster striking?
It won’t be easy, but it is certainly survivable, and if you’ve developed a broad preparedness plan you would fair much better then the 90% of people who studies say wouldn’t make it in such a scenario.
Imagine for just a moment what would be going through your mind and the minds of those with whom you share this report if sunspot AR1944 had emitted an X-25+ Class solar flare that was heading for earth right now and that it would be here within 48 hours.
Would you be prepared for what happens when the national power grid collapses? Would you be ready for the catastrophe that would follow within a matter of hours?
Preparedness for such an event starts with a simple grid-down supply. Once those basics are covered and you have enough to keep your family afloat for two weeks, you could broaden your preparedness horizons with long-term food storage, emergency medical supplies, gold and silver as bartering currencies, and self defense strategies to protect against the inevitable hordes that would follow.
The threat is real. Countless officials and experts have warned of the possibility in our lifetimes.
What if tomorrow was the day?
Hattip: Follow Chris Carrington at The Daily Sheeple for updates on space weather, natural disasters and other global happenings.
Ben @Suspicious0bservers was all over this before it even erupted. Telltale signs of complexity and magnetic mixing, combined with the shear size is quite the deal.
You can fit ALL of the planets in our solar system (yes, even you lowly Pluto)into the area of the sunspot(s) itself. What is truly ironic however, is that this solar cycle has been extremely dead, flare wise and that the Carrington Event of 1859 was similar. All quiet on the Western front…then BOOM! The rest as they say, is history. History repeats because we never learn.
Chat forum in 2015!
Nothing like the waiting game.
Anything can happen. Why worry about it?
I like my chances of survival not because I have a little food stored up, but because I am ready to adjust to whatever the world throws at me.
But in the end, no matter how well one may prepare, the best we can hope for is a peaceful death because it is coming no matter what. It’s as much about the world I die in as it is the one I live in.
duck meteor showers are comming get an umbrella
X-1 flare is about equal to a Category 1 hurricane. Should be an excellent light show, but even an Earth directed flare like this will not blow out much. You have to start to get up into the X-4 to X-6 level before you start to see damage on ground levels. Even satellites are not prone to damage either at this level. There should be another near X-1 soon as indicated by the energy build up on the GOES X-ray flux chart put out by NOAA.
For a massive EMP pulse that would fry the long wires and the grid on the planet, you really have to get up into the X-15 level or higher with a direct hit. This is from past examples of lower X-flares such as the one a couple of decades ago in Quebec. Next 2 days if should a flare were to erupt the planet would sustain a direct to near direct hit. Remember that back in 1859 with the Carrington Event a very similar pattern during a solar maximum like now occurred. There was little activity, way below normal, and then BOOM the Sun got twice as bright for a few seconds and the rest is history. It can and WILL happen again. This time around? Still it is really always possible, even during a solar minimum.
Well an X-15 would put an end to technological warfare; what would the NSA do?
Don’t worry, NSA got the sun bugged real good!
Somewhat on point question: suppose one of the worst case scenarios for a solar flare or EMP … would that knock out LED flashlights and alkaline AA, AAA batteries?
What about battery operated emergency radios?
Would a steel trash can lined inside with scrap wood from a hwf job suffice as a Faraday cage? Would the trash can need to be grounded? Would it being in the basement make any difference?
Thank you.
a good faraday cage if you are wanting to make one for just small essentials is to get large zip lock bags and put stuff in the bag then wrap with aluminum foil then put that creation into another ziplock bag and foil that one and keep doing it till you get about 4 levels of ziplock and plastic and you have successfully made a simple faraday cage for little stuff.
It only takes 1 big catastrophic event to change everything!
One thing I keep forgetting about is to get an extra set of electronic ignition chips and backup main computer chips for the trucks. Time to make a run to the junkyard and find them and put them in the faraday can. I hate walking long distance lol. Oh and a spare charge controller for the solar, damn I’m falling behind here. Maybe I can train the dog to pull a sled 🙂
I’m gonna go Ho Chi Minn bicycle.
Why not remove the parts before the spot hits and put in faraday cage?
Looks like I picked the wrong week to give up sniffing glue!
Awesome I won’t have to bring back those Red Box movies…. Sweet!!!!!!
PRAY, PLAN, PREP, FORM TEAMS
So how hard do we have to get hit before nuclear power plants are unable to control their critical processes? Hate to speak fatalism, but really it’s hard to rationalize any plan of action with this in mind.
Wonderbread and Fluff is good. Then put a buttercup flower under your chin to see if you like butter, which makes perfect sense.
Hmmm
I could always use more ammo
Time for one last trip to town huh?
Well ifn so nice knowing y’all
Glad the ex left me nothing but my preps!!!
She said I was gonna need em more than her!!
N.O.’S MOM
regarding an ex and weapons
Here’s ten reasons for ya…
#10. You can trade an old 44 for a new 22.
#9. You can keep one gun at home and have another for when you’re on the road.
#8. If you admire a friend’s gun and tell him so, he will probably let you try it out a few times.
#7. Your primary gun doesn’t mind if you keep another gun for a backup.
#6. Your gun will stay with you even if you run out of ammo.
#5. A gun doesn’t take up a lot of closet space.
#4. Guns function normally every day of the month.
#3. A gun doesn’t ask , “Do these new grips make me look fat?”
#2. A gun doesn’t mind if you go to sleep after you use it.
And the number one reason a gun is favored over a woman….
#1. YOU CAN BUY A SILENCER FOR A GUN
possee
Well she was an ole 38 single action
Can I trade her for a full auto 50?
I’d settle for a 45-70 gattling at this point!!
just wondering, how did the thread go from this
“”””Sun Goes Wild: NOAA Issues Alert: Earth Directed X-Class Flare Is On Its Way; Chance Of More””””
to guns and ammo, I couldn’t find the connection.
Its CAUSE and EFFECT LOL
Because if the sun goes apenuts in the next day
Or so get yer ass to town n buy more guns n ammo
I thought this was a preper site not a heckle n peck
Doesn’t matter. Guns are cool.
Everything comes down to weapons with a lot of these people. They’re like a security blanket, I guess.
Guns and ammo are like blow jobs , almost never a bad time too get another one
I was just talking today with my boss about the sun flipping it’s magnetic poles a few weeks back. And wondering if there was any correlation to the polar vortex we are experiencing….it was an interesting conversation, especially now in light of reading this article.
The Solar (Sun) changing poles occurs about every 22-24 years, that is the normal solar cycle that has been occurring for around 450 yrs. Solid science involved, lots of studies from various World wide organizations, pretty much a normal occurrence, I’m not sure when they will start calling it Solar cycle 25, The present one was Solar cycle 24.
Since Polar vortex’s can be caused by volcanic eruptions in the tropics. I doubt they can be cause by the changing of Solar cycles.
Polar vortices are weaker during summer and strongest during winter. Individual vortices can persist for more than a month. Extra-tropical cyclones that occlude and migrate into higher latitudes create cold-core lows within the polar vortex. Volcanic eruptions in the tropics lead to a stronger polar vortex during the winter for as long as two years afterwards. The strength and position of the cyclone shapes the flow pattern across the hemisphere of its influence. An index which is used in the northern hemisphere to gauge its magnitude is the Arctic oscillation.
I know the solar cycles are normal, and that we are midway (or peak) of this one just 11 years in, so I would guess cycle 25 would begin 2024-2026 roughly? I was just curious if it could be connected to the polar vortex.
The thing I question though is the sun has only been flipping poles for 450 years??
That is how long we have been able to measure/observe such things.
Well that makes more sense that 450 yeasr would be recorded history….not that the sun has only been flipping poles for 450 years
Obama is so cold hearted its his 100% his fault!!
It’s a solar crap shoot.
One of these days we’ll have the right sun spot, facing the right way, and like you said Socrates ==> BOOM.
Reports like this reiterate to me that my preparedness is the right thing to do.
Great info and, as usual, needed…
Have been reading the “Going Home/Surviving Home/Escaping Home” series by A. American and this is the background for it, ie, massive power outage. I, like most good folks who follow this sit have also read One Second After a couple times. Would suggest both books as the One Second After is what I would call rather “sterile” as in isolated (which we all will be in an event like this) but the Going Home series (3 books), at least as I read them, much more “personal” and in deed will leave you checking your 6 more frequently and bring an awareness of what is truly in our future when this s–t goes down.
Personally we have a sanctuary a couple hours away and if need be could walk it, but the truth is while I could make the trek, I doubt if my bride of many years could, which is why I have been putting some things away down the hill. Anyway, wanted to comment on this and urge, yes, I mean “URGE” folks to read both of the aforementioned book/books and take notes. with the horrific weather happening within the past week, the birth of the abortion called “o care,”the numerous new eruptions of volcanos and now the sun spitting at us, (not even going to start on the fiscal nightmares), well, let’s just say that I do believe 2014 is gonna be one where “handles” will be needed to hold onto for all the rock and a rollin’ we’re in for… dj
Hi Dave in AZ, exsactly what I have been suggesting. I read One Second After 3 times, the 3rd time with a notebook and pen taking notes. I dont know the other books you mention – might try and track them down.
A Carrington Event repeat would really mess things up. Just one of the things that could bring about TEOTWAWKI.
2014 Dave? Could be – I sure wouldnt bet against it!!
Aussie
“Going Home” series are pretty good books. They are the kind of books that keep ya up late at night.
@ Buck …..Agreed ! I have read 1 & 2 and will order th Kindle on computer edition of’ Escaping Home ‘ Soon . So far Goin Home is my favorite ! I know it’s fiction ,but I think you can get a lot of idea’s from reading these books . Because Fact is stranger than Fiction ! So they could really be close to the truth !!…..Keep an OverWatch !…..mm
David’s correct.
I’m in the middle of “Surviving Home” right now and have found the series to be much better than “One Second After” with respect to making you think. Specifically, it presents realistic scenarios wrt not only government actions but also community and broader social interactions. I’m at the point where DHS is tightening its fist, the government is setting up work camps and going after dissidents, a resistance is forming and the primary character’s community is getting…pissy with him since he and his family are not suffering as much as they are. The author’s worked in a lot of nuanced stuff that makes you go…hmmm.
And yep – after reading this, you’ll re-examine what you have (or have planned) and check your six a little more frequently.
@ Jayber……Just wait till you find out all the neighbors are KIL…….oops, well NEVERMIND !! LoL…..mm
Hope the folks have been hearing all the jargon from some of elite lately on the kill shot. Make me wonder what they’re up to, whether an EMP could just wipe out the grid and life as we know it and now we have the sun waking up again. There could never be a better time to prep and watch for events. Hope everyone wakes up.
Radiation or EMP-one of them is going to do us in. Or maybe the Yellowstone caldera will erupt. Fox News reported on Yellowstone today as if it was just discovered. The new year is not looking too promising or even survivable.
It could be two or all three of these together. I wonder if a huge CME would affect the magnetic field of the earth and promote volcanic activity. Then no power and the Fukyouandme situation would be out of hand with no technology available. The only hope would be if the continent of Japan would be rolled over on itself to bury the mess into a magma pool. Then all of the cooling pools and reactors around the world would lose cooling in a short period of time. Anyway we are all playing Russian Roulette with 3 or more bullets in a 6 round revolver.
More like Russian Roulette with 8 bullets somehow crammed into a 6 shooter.
Tex when that baby goes, I’m gonna take a ride to the moon. All you Mid West preppers if you find any of my prepps scattered over that way just feel free to pick them up and add to your supplies. Trekker Out.
Nice!
Visions of Woody Harrelson are dancing through my head…
Hang loose, Trekker.
I must apologize for being Debbie Downer last night with this comment. My husband has been very sick since he was in the hospital before Christmas and the alarming news swirling around me got me down.
He is feeling better this morning than he has for 3 weeks, so things are looking brighter today. We shall carry on.
Hey Honey ??? Where’s the Effing sun screen????
the northern hemisphere is on its winter shaded cycle – which means we are shielded in ZOG AMERIKA , less direct sunlight .
we are safe . it’s the folks in the southern hemisphere and equator who should be worried .
N.O. ;0p
The axial tilt of Earth and gyroscopic effects of the planet’s daily rotation keep the axis of rotation pointed at the same point in the sky. As the Earth follows its orbit around the Sun, the same hemisphere that faced away from the Sun, experiencing winter, will, in half a year, face towards the Sun and experience summer. Since the two hemispheres face opposite directions along the planetary pole, as one polar hemisphere experiences winter, the other experiences summer.
;0p
The most powerful flare September 1, 1859
everyone chill …
The most powerful flare ever observed was the first one to be observed, on September 1, 1859, and was reported by British astronomer Richard Carrington and independently by an observer named Richard Hodgson. The event is named the Solar storm of 1859, or the “Carrington event”.
The flare was visible to a naked-eye (in white light), and produced stunning auroras down to tropical latitudes such as Cuba or Hawaii, and set telegraph systems on fire. The flare left a trace in Greenland ice in the form of nitrates and beryllium-10, which allow its strength to be measured today.
Cliver and Svalgaard reconstructed the effects of this flare and compared with other events of the last 150 years.
In their words: While the 1859 event has close rivals or superiors in each of the above categories of space weather activity, it is the only documented event of the last ∼150 years that appears at or near the top of all of the lists.
;0p
Hold Fast.
I read the last paragraph in the posting twice and came to this conclusion.
By the way, as I keyboard this, I am watching doomsdaypreppers and a person being water boarded for practice to increase endurance if interrogated by the Russians. (Interesting)
There is no way anyone can completely materially prepare for what’s overtaking the earth. Consider the current weather event, the Polar Vortex it is called. Some of you have suffered through the worst and I hope you are well.
Consider this, suppose we had a solar event as described
in this posting and then this extreme weather event? And this weather event is a SHTF event in my opinion. Consider the strain on stored resources? After this weather event has passed, many of you will be able to restock. Suppose you could not? It can happen may so…
I would not, in the future, be lacking in the capability
to keep warm,very warm. Although most of our eyes are on
the imploding of our country, the economy, Washington,
Climate Change Events are upon us and not totally caused by Global Warming by Humans, but by nature itself. The climate situation is getting serious. You can say its weather warfare, perhaps, HARRP, perhaps.
If The Lord does not shorten the days, none of us may survive.
That is my two cents worth…. Everybody be safe…..
Because everybody is important
Global warming…for sure.
Caused by what…who knows for sure.
While recorded temps only go back around 150 years, the warmest years on record have occurred fairly recently.
The top 20 of the warmest have occurred in the last 25 years and 9 of the warmest in the last 11 years. These are NOAA and GISS statistics.
I believe we will see more crop failures from droughts and more and more drinking water issues in the next decade. Water wars are a comin’. Arm up with super soakers and water balloons for your preps.
Hey JRS, we had record low temps for days here and NONE of it was entered into the historical database on weather.com I noticed the same shit last year too. For your info the Rothschilds own the weather channel so go figure. NOAA and Govt. stats are a LIE! We also had the coolest summers I can remember last year and year before. I’m noticing ALL govt. statistics are a LIE and pointed to the agenda… Don’t believe the LIE, believe what you see.
Hmmm…Weren’t the stats in this article from NOAA?
OK. I suppose you can pick whatever stats you choose to believe, but the USA isn’t the center of the universe, either. These stats I posted were for global warmth. Check out record heat now in Australia.
November 2013 was the warmest November globally on record.
‘Be thankful for the bad things. They opened your eyes to the good things you weren’t paying attention to before.’
From Solarham.com
Bright CME Detected: As expected, a bright coronal mass ejection (CME) was generated by the major X1.2 solar flare this afternoon. Because the source region is in a near perfect geoeffective positon, this bodes well for an Earth directed component. Sky watchers at high latitudes may get lucky in a few days. An early tracking model is calling for an impact to our geomagnetic field early January 9th UTC time.
A coronal mass ejection (CME) is expected to deliver a glancing blow to our geomagnetic field today. EPAM proton levels as measured by the ACE Spacecraft continue to trend higher, indicating that the plasma cloud shock front may still be approaching. Minor Geomagnetic Storming will be possible at high latitudes.
.Forecast…
Solar activity is expected to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares on days one through three (08-10 Jan).
Whoa, thanks for that web site solarham.net, Christian Man.
GOOD!
I HOPE WE GOT A FEW BIG X FLARES, FRY THE CRAP OUTA EVERYTHING!
Kula, you still got royalty up in your neck of the island? The 3 women that call the shots are up there according to an article I read yesterday. Aloha y’all!
Yes, DHS is blocking the road, local cops been pretty busy with paparazzi and trespassers, the circuis has begun
Bless your heart. You have my utmost admiration KF, for keeping us posted on what’s going on over there. Hugs to you…
Yep Kula, especially the govt. computers and satelites etc. Send NSA DHS ETC. back to the stone age lol. I’ll trade ya some boolits fer sum coconuts and pineapple! I bet not hardly 1% of the people going through this midwest weather crap prepare for it to happen again after its all over. Ya can’t teach an idiot old tricks 🙂
I know I’ll be more prepared with extra snow shovels FOR THE KIDS.
Still, it’s a great training for gardening season, “…so you have what, an 8-10 week training program here? … which is PERFECT for me!”
I was thinking the same exact thing, Kulafarmer.
Let TPTB try and survive surrounded by their fried electronics. Pisses me off to no end that they take our tax Dollars and then turn them on us.
It saddens me that many will die. But we did it to ourselves.
We Humans have such a short attention span. A few DO look around and read the signs and realize that major catastrophes happen every few generations.
Next time around, we’ll build a sturdier society.
You guys seriously think they aren’t prepared for it….think again. The evil elite will make sure their henchmen are prepared
We should resist the urge to assign ‘supernatural’ powers of Satanically evil prowess to the greasy slabs of human scum who infest our US Congress and government in general, BJ.
Consider this: The West Coast, which is infected with millions of parasite, law breaking, illegal alien mestizos, Commie pinko sympathizing liberals, sodomites, and sexual perverts of all imaginable forms and varieties, also claims the likes of Diane Feinstein, Barbara Boxer and Nancy Pelosi, right?
And, right now, Fukushima’s radiation is all up and down the West Coast – which means, ha, ha, that these three evil witches are being radiated – along with their Communist, Marxist, parasitic, liberal constituencies, right?
So, were these evil elites as smart as you claim they are, they’d not be hanging around Mexifornia – would they?
And, can anyone think of a more deserving trio of Bolshevik Communist cockroaches to get radiated, and then eaten up by cancer than these three evil sluts?
How do you know they are staying there? Or that where they are living is not somehow protected?
Maybe they are transhuman? Or maybe not human at all? I am seriously beginnning to wonder if some of these people are not totally human…..but that’s another story down a deep rabbit hole.
And…….why would the elite protect them? They are expendable to the elite…a foolish mouthpiece for the elite, a puppet. One that can easily be replaced from a long line of willing participants.
The ones with knowledge and expertise as well as their equipment would be valuable to the rulers to keep protected to round us up and squash any resistance wanting to rise up. Nancy and Barbatra couldn’t do that.
BJ–you must read the sites I read.
I know what you are saying…without saying it.
It’s in the eyes??
I agree with you, Tucker. They aren’t omnipotent just because they’re Communists and sodomites. They are flesh and bone like everybody else, and they don’t have super powers.
People fall and empires fall, whether the Roman, the Mongol, the Ottoman, or…the American.
Kula—Question.
If the harm from Fukushima is affecting the west coast sea life, crops, air and soil, how bad is it in Hawaii??
I look on the map and see that Hawaii is between Japan and California, just south a bit.
But as the current flows, it must be hitting you first??
Thanks for any info.
My brother is a usaf colonel stationed in Hawaii, but he is unfortunately a christian sheeple 🙁 He won’t listen to me or even respond when I send him info. He spins everything to a positive pragmatic approach and uses that as an escape from truth. He is being moved to of all places now….Japan 🙁
My brother and I have the same kind of relationship. Unilateral transfer of information. And “Nuhhh-thing to worry about”, according to him. Actually, we are BOTH Christians, but he is one of those who invents his own “church” out of thin air. I’m more of a traditionalist and very conservative.
Dead Conjoined Baby Gray Whales found on West Coast of N. America — Could be first ever recorded — 2 heads and 2 tails, joined in middle (PHOTOS & VIDEO)
http://enenews.com/agency-conjoined-baby-gray-whales-found-in-baja-california-after-pacific-migration-could-be-first-ever-recorded-2-heads-and-2-tails-joined-at-ventral-region-photos-video
It should arrive over Japan at around 0000 UTC the 9th or 6pm CST tomorrow. Just think at how quick the die off would be in this polar vortex. The elite who want depopulation would be thrilled to the point of a chrissy matthews tingle down their leg.
T-10 and counting
I WOULDN’T head to your BO location anytime soon. We’ve had these huge sunspots before with nothing happening. The odds of a major X10+ flare/CME occurring in our lifetimes is pretty nil. Still, we should keep tabs on SolarHam.com for the next few days as a precaution. This does make one wonder (well, not really) what would happen if a MAJOR X-class flare erupted with all this frigid cold we are experiencing here in the US. If the grid was knocked out, millions would freeze in days. And our lives would be forever changed…..
GulfVET1970-
You might want to brush up on your solar history…we have had several X-Class events OVER magnitude 10 in the last 10 years alone. It’s not just the ‘size’ of the flare/CME event…but whether it is Earth facing as the article in this post disclosed. Had the one in July of 2012 been directly Earth facing chances are we would not be here now chatting about it. 😉 Here are a few from Wikipedia:
In modern times, the largest solar flare measured with instruments occurred on November 4, 2003. This event saturated the GOES detectors, and because of this its classification is only approximate. Initially, extrapolating the GOES curve, it was estimated to be X28.[19] Later analysis of the ionospheric effects suggested increasing this estimate to X45.[20] This event produced the first clear evidence of a new spectral component above 100 GHz.[21]
Other large solar flares also occurred on April 2, 2001 (X20),[22] October 28, 2003 (X17.2 and 10),[23] September 7, 2005 (X17),[22] February 17, 2011 (X2),[24][25][26] August 9, 2011 (X6.9),[9][27] March 7, 2012 (X5.4),[28][29] July 6, 2012 (X1.1).[30] July 6, 2012- The solar storm hit just after 12 midnight UK time,[31] when an X1.1 solar flare fired out of the AR1515 sunspot. Another X1.4 solar flare from AR 1520 region of the Sun,[32] second in the week, reached the earth on July 15, 2012[33] with a geomagnetic storm of G1–G2 level.[34][35] A X1.8-class flare was recorded on October 24, 2012.[36] There has been major solar flare activity in early 2013, notably within a 48 hour period starting on May 12, 2013, a total of four X-class solar flares were emitted ranging from an X1.2 and upwards of an X3.2.,[37] the latter of which was one of the largest flares of the year so far.
Socrates is absolutely correct. There is a window in which the sunspot affected area is Earth facing of about 5-6 days each solar rotation. That is about a 1/4 chance of getting hit each time one of these eruptions of the Sun begins and ends. A direct Earth facing hit is about 3-4 day window, about a 1 in 6 chance of getting a near to direct hit. It is strange that there have not been more Earth hits as the odds say there should have been 2 or 3 more than the last few decades have produced. Could be that there might be a swarm of direct hits as pure chance often balances itself out in the long run.
So, BI if we had X10+ flares DIRECTLY HIT us in the last ten years, what are we worried about? Otherwise Gulf Vet is correct.
@ A. Ever see the difference between the amount of destuction of a Category 3 and Category 4 hurricane? There is a quantum jump. Same goes true between a 8.8 and a 9.0 earthquake as demonstrated by the dynamic overshoot between the Chile earthquake and the Japanese earthquake. When enough energy over shoots the amount of energy that rock can take, you have more of the shallow sea floor rising violently up. Results, Fukushima might not have been destroyed IF the earthquake had been slightly smaller.
It would take minimum a X-15 to really hurt the ground level electronic. This would be equal to a major hurricane. X-15+ are not that common, but they do occur A LOT more frequent than people realize. The same feelings go with the San Andreas fault that it won;t happen in my lifetime, yet IT MUST OCCUR. Odds are that the longer between the time or an occurance of an event the more chance it will occur every month or year that goes by. Even Yellowstone has a slightly better chance of erupting now than it did back at the time of your grandparents.
Statisitics works remarkably well with weather forecasting months in the future as shown by the Farmer’s Almanacs’ track record. The same goes true with massive solar flares as this is ONLY a natural process of these type of stars all over the universe. This star is no different, white and yellow stars have these eruptions all the time. Actually the older most of these Class G and Class F get the more frequent these eruptions occur. The star like most things in the universe become less stable with age. The Sun is actually a G2V star which means a few hundred degrees hotter and it would be a Class F star, or white star.
It is very possible that we could have wave after wave of Earth directed flares. I have noticed for example that many eruptions occur abnormally on the far eastern flank of the Sun the past few years. It was only 2-3 days that super flare 10 years ago. Two to Three days difference between nothing happening and practically every long wire on the planet being fried. Short wire electronics is only affected by a nuke detention by an attack or accident in the upper atmosphere.
They thought that massive tsunamis in the Indian Ocean did not happen, and thus did not think it was necessary to have tsunami warning systems there. We all saw what happened because of this lack of being prepared. The same goes true for the Atlantic seaboard with tsunamis that they think will never happen. When the Caribbean plate gives way like back 600 years ago a very large tsunami will be generated a little smaller than in Japan. WHEN the next X-flare hits the planet, the population of the Earth will be in deep trouble. X-flares are a lot more common as shown with other stars that are nearly identical to this one. Yes, they can detect solar eruptions on other stars just like they can see other planets rotating around these stars.
What me worry? Everyone should be aware and be prepared because it can and will happen a lot sooner than people realize.
So gulf vet is correct. chances are Almost nil of a destructive CME in our lifetime.
@ A
No, Gulf Vet is wrong- as are many others who *think* the impossible could not happen to them. Be informed tried to explain, (in great detail I might add) why GulfVet made incorrect assumptions. It is NOT always the magnitude of the CME that counts, as was stated earlier.
An X10+ impact is no slouch and yes- we have survived those (and bigger already), but some really devastating ones have missed us narrowly. That was the whole point of the article here, but he seemed to have missed that that too. 😉 People in the know, KNOW it is coming, just not some people apparently. Former head of DHS (and others) all have said it is only a matter of ‘when’ not ‘if’. If they didn’t think it could happen in our lifetimes, then it would be a moot point.
No disrespect meant to anyone- I just want to make sure people get real facts and not conjecture.
Yes he’s correct because the chances are like they have been for over a hundred years. It hasnt happened.
The bitter cold of the last few days would have been unbearable without heat and shelter. Great suffering would have been wide spread if we would have had a major X-class. What would they do with all the bodies? All of the plumbing would have become worthless. Fires would have broken out, caused by people trying to stay warm. Hospitals overwelmed. Society? Non-existent. The Dark Ages, at the end of the Roman Era, was kick started by a large volcanic explosion and/or an asteroid in about 535 AD. No summer, no crops. Just Barbarians. Same thing today if it happened.
People forget that history repeats.
and every time it does, the price goes UP!
A friend working for a major hospital in NW Pee-ay had that kind of day this week. Pipes burst on multiple floors, leaked into others and sent the whole complex into a kicked-anthill-scramble. Bitter cold indeed, and a hospital overwhelmed.
Prepare to be on your own, as emergency services will be not likely be able to help you.
I’d rather have a $100 water bill than deal with that mess.
We’re okay at 10°-15° on a sunny day, but if there are clouds, and northern winds, our water runs when below 10° at a large stream, not a trickle. 🙂
“a kicked-anthill-scramble.” That has to be THE best analogy I’ve ever read! EVER!!! Peace to everyone!
I would beg to differ on your position. While I have no data on hand regarding volcanoes and/or asteroid impacts in that timeframe, my stance on the Dark Ages is that it is simply a result of the collapse of the Western Roman Empire (as opposed to the Eastern Roman Empire and the later Holy Roman Empire).
While Rome fell in 476 to the Huns, it would have taken a very long time for the news to reach the far corners of the Empire and while the home office, if you like, had closed its doors some governors and local authorities would have tried to maintain the status quo for as long as possible. But without fresh professionally trained legionaries, they would have to start resorting to mercenaries and auxiliaries and eventually they would either have fallen to the “barbarians” or been assimilated into the local populaces.
The absence of crops, if truly a factor, could easily be attributed to the numbers of men trying to make a quick buck going off to war, as has always been throughout history.
The Dark Ages, if anything, refer to that period of time where the Pax Romana and the Roman-built infrastructure fell apart and everything had to be re-learned and rebuilt and former provinces and outlying territories had to sort themselves out following the power vacuum left by the absence of Rome’s influence.
Well, if a CME travels at the speed of light and we spotted the sun’s flare then the CME has already hit the Earth?? This is like the time travel paradox….how can it reach us in days if it travels at the speed of light yet we saw it on our telescopes? I guess different parts of light travel a whole lot slower than others!
A CME is composed predominately of protons and electrons, which do not move at the speed of light. The gas clouds takes longer to hit than light. All frequencies of the electromagnetic spectrum travel at the same rate unless diffaction, refraction or some sort of reflection occur on that frequency. Hope that clarifies it for ya. 🙂
If it has mass then the speed of light will not be attained. I believe the article mentioned seven million miles an hour as opposed to speed of light 186,000 miles a second. Big difference.
Oh…I love repeating myself. The Carrington event (the flare that took out the grid 100 years ago) was an X25 and the technology was shit…can we grow up now?
what a silly comment. wires and wires, metal is metal, and plastic is plastic. All of which solar wind / plasma will destroy if they get into the atmosphere.
So an iphone is cool tech, so can’t be affected?
Iphone is cool tech? and I never said it couldn’t be effected…I said the tech 100 years ago was shit. What I am suggesting it that a low level of the same class flare probably wont do anything near the devastation the fear mongers would have you believe.
The entire province of Quebec, Canada went dark in 1989 from an X15 solar flare’s CME of a billion pounds of gas. A number of satellites tumbled out of control for a few hours. One satellite reported over 200 anomalies. Some of New England was short of electricity normally supplied from Quebec.
Each increase in the strength number by one indicates a ten times in the actual power. Therefore an X25 would be 10,000,000,000 times as strong as the one that took out all of Quebec. And the Carrington event was much more than X25.
I believe an X25, based on the above, could take out all of North America. The number and intensity of solar flares have been increasing lately. We had an X1.3 yesterday and an M9.9 (almost X) a week ago. The last X before that was an X1.0 on November 19, 2013. So I would make sure everything’s in the Faraday cages. Because we get a little notice, I would also have extra Faraday cages in which to store the rest of my currently in use electronics when I got the notice of a big flare happening and a big CME on the way.
ten times “increase” in the actual power
No one gives a shit about Canada
Actually many researchers say it was in excess of X100
Here in Montana if it doesn’t get below -60 for a VERY long time, we have no problem, except for those that live off the government. Most of us are used to taking care of ourselves. Have been for generations.
Why worry about it? If it comes, it comes. C’est la vie.
I think we need an online dating site for preppers!!!
Excellent idea. There is nothing more important than to partner up with a member of the opposite sex who will be a true partner and companion in the area of working together to help you both survive.
Already got mine, Tucker. Had her for longer than I haven’t!
Excellent idea. There is nothing more important than to partner up with a member of the opposite sex who will be a true partner and companion in the area of working together to help you both survive.
One hundred burt gummers for every moped girl with bonus snot nosed chimps.
Mopeds are fun as hell , long as your friends never see you riding it
both of those things ARE a lot of fun, as is mountain climbing….just don’t look DOWN!
Roscoe Bartlett is a Physiologist. Not a Physicist or Engineer. It doesnt mean he’s wrong in his warning but there are plenty more credible sources out there if one bothers looking and is concerned about making a serious case that others will listen to. You don’t need to continue citing a 90 year old former Congressman without any educational backing making him an expert in CMEs or their effects on transmission infrastructure any more than you need to cite an Electrical Engineer on matters of anatomy.
Stop with the Roscoe Bartlett nonsense and start looking at the IEEE Spectrum for good articles and references on this issue from people who actually know something about it. We all might learn something that way.
http://spectrum.ieee.org/energy/the-smarter-grid/a-perfect-storm-of-planetary-proportions
Thank you for that link, Mr. Weimer. Good essay.
Easy to go off grid long as one has 80 k government pension to stock up with
A bunch of people try to be funny when they post things on here. It entertains me cause at first sign of trouble they’ll be the ones to wet their pants
how does having a sense of humor equate to pissing one’s pants? i will put MY preps and knowledge how to use them up against anyone….but i better butt out…since i aint funny…..well, i DO make people laugh…just not intentionally. seriously though, there’s gonna be a LOT of BIGBOY pants in the laundry when the time comes!
Your moniker makes me laugh…gotta live it!
you think THAT’S funny, you ought to see my FACE!
I really hate that sentence, “thrown back into the Stone Age”.
Yes, losing the bulk of our technology in one fell swoop would hurt us a lot. However, we, as a species, know stuff they didn’t back then. We know about carbon monoxide poisoning, food and water safety, wound care, seasons, communications with flags and heliographs. We know how to shape metal and can work lathes or grinders without electric power, as the pioneer or even medieval craftsmen knew how to. We know about diseases and how they spread and a million other things they didn’t.
So while many will die from ignorance, exposure, disease or starvation, such a catastrophic event wouldn’t erase all the knowledge in our heads or in books that are actually on paper.
Canadian Vet.
You said.
“So while many will die from ignorance, exposure, disease or starvation, such a catastrophic event wouldn’t erase all the knowledge in our heads or in books that are actually on paper”.
Good one.
You can tell people a lot of things but you can’t tell them nothing.
Yes, I agree. Things may temporarily revert back to 19th century technology if there are widespread power outages but the knowledge gained in the last hundred years would not be lost. It’s not as if we would suddenly forget how to manufacture vehicles or electronics. On the other hand, with a widespread power outage that lasted months many areas of the country would wind up with significant losses in population as the land cannot support the number of inhabitants without electricity (i.e. NYC, LA, etc.). But, there would always be at least a few people who know enough about the various areas of technology to rebuild.
Canadian Vet, good morning, sir, and I have to agree. there are older methods of doing certain things and those older methods are still workable. they’re not “obsolete” as today’s generations might claim. For example, it’s a safe bet we’ll lose the internet along with the grid, so the electronics I’m saving along with 2 shortwave radios I keep inside a metal trash can with bubble packing for insulation; a homemade faraday cage. shortwave will probably be our only source for information in any post-grid down scenario. It was my primary source before I learned computers and always kept it for backup. It can and will be primary source again if need be. Also, stock up on a ton of extra batteries. braveheart
Hi!
Lets not forget what an EMP will do to all the nuke plants dotted all across the Western world. Prep all you like,buy all the guns and ammo you like BUT lets see what you are gonna do when the nuke plants POP POP POP!!!!!!
Ahhhhh,no one wants to talk about that eh?????? 😉
***Lets not forget what an EMP will do to all the nuke plants dotted all across the Western world. ***
And as good as the book, ‘One Second After’ was, it wasn’t mentioned there either.
Because they are talking about a CME, NOT a EMP.
results CAN be the same for either.
I read somewhere that the last x20+ flare happened in 2001 or something. so if you’ve been alive, its happened already, just wasn’t pointed at us.
if it wasn’t pointed AT us, it didn’t HAPPEN.
May i suggest a call or petition ta all them hot damn ‘merikan nuke overseers to
1: spend some money on newer nuke plants,add more safety in a EMF situation
2: get rid of that shitty GE nuke plant design where the spent fuel rods are stored on the nuke plant site.
3: get those spent fuel rods away from any large population
FYI if the the spent rods were not being stored at the shitty GE designed Fuck-ooo-shima nuke plant,things would be much better there. But hey,what do i know.
How about just get rid of nuke plants altogether. Coal burns clean until it can be replaced in large by alternative methods. Most nuke plants in the US are on fault lines (probably on purpose) and old as hell. They have technology to provide plenty of power but you will never be able to use it. A lot of universities get funding from say Chevron and when a student comes up with a free energy device or safe power device the oil company has rights to the ideas, patents them and shelves them. The whole thing is a ultra corrupt scam to keep you in theyre system.
Right… the oil companies fund Universities who invent “free energy devices,” the oil companies murder them in their sleep to hide the technology, and we keep buying oil. So… what was the point of the oil companies funding the Universities in the first place if their intention was to cover up anything invented with their money?
The mental gymnastics of some of this conspiracy nonsense are incredible. This is dangerous because it distracts from the conspiracy facts that are literally everywhere these days.
Dirtygreek,
I suggest they store those spent fuel rods on Capitol Hill, in the Supreme Court parking garage, and the White House family quarters. Stored with advantage.
“There’s a little black spot on the sun today”.
“King of Pain”.
By The Police.
http://youtu.be/axZgwnM9JJ0
Good lyrics.
I posted before how I was having trouble getting my wife to prep with me. I have only been prepping for about 4 or 5 months now and she is now onboard with me. I’m really happy about this since there is a lot of work to be done in what I feel a short time. Now that she is with me on it its going to make it a little easier with two of us and it give us something to do as family. We both have a lot to learn but I think we can reach our goals faster with both of us working at it. With what we learn we can teach our boys I just hope it doesn’t hit before they are old enough to fire a weapon safe and accurate.
Welcome….youll be fine…no panic just honest learning will get you through…and remember while being able to handle a gun is important,being able to fix a pipe or a window,butcher a deer/hog et al are no less important when it comes to surviving…surviving and prospering in it has a steep learning curb…good luck! 🙂
Tornados, hurricanes, etc…
27 Must-Have Items to Repair House Damage After a Disaster
“…materials that will give you the most possible repairs, for the least amount of material investment.
• Plywood – You can fix anything from a hole in the wall (roof or floor) to a broken door with plywood. Don’t worry about having a lot of 3/4” plywood either, 1/2” is cheaper and you can store more.
• 2”x 4” studs – The basic construction framing material. If your home has any structural damage, you can shore it up with 2”x 4” studs.
• Tarps – There are a million uses for tarps, but in this case, I’m thinking of covering damaged roofs. Even if part of your roof is missing, you can fix it with plywood and tarps. It’s almost impossible to have too many. Make sure that they’re big ones.
• Lath or furring strips – This is just thin strips of wood. Your tarps will work better if you can keep them from flapping in the wind. Nailing them down with lath or furring strips works well. In a pinch, if you don’t have these, you can cut strips from cardboard boxes.
• Clear plastic sheeting (in rolls) – Some people think of this as drop cloth material, but it’s useful for a lot of things. Pretty much anywhere you can use a tarp, you can use clear plastic sheeting. Specifically, if you have broken glass, clear sheeting will work better to cover a window, as it will let light in.
• Caulking – Ideal for fixing leaks of all sorts. Be sure to buy a caulk gun as well.
• Duct tape – Is there any doubt as to the usefulness of duct tape? It is the all-purpose repair material. Also great for general survival.
• Wire ties – Almost as useful as duct tape for holding things together. Even if you don’t need them for repairs, you can find a million uses for them.
• Plumbing fittings – At times, a home’s plumbing can get damaged. Being able to make a repair can mean the difference between having water and not having water. This is especially true when everyone in the city is having problems. If you have your home plumbing patched, the city will probably turn yours on first. Be sure to have caps, as you can always cut off damaged parts of your home’s plumbing and cap those pipes.
• Extension cords – While it won’t meet code, you can jury rig repairs to just about any part of your home’s electrical system with extension cords. Make sure they are medium to heavy duty ones, not the lightweight ones.
• Wire nuts – You’ll need something to attach the wires together with, this is what electricians use. Get some good quality electrical tape to go with it as well.
• Hardware – A good assortment of nails, screws and other fasteners will be needed to go with the materials on this list. Get a bunch of different sizes, as it always seems that you need the size that you don’t have.
Once again, the list of tools you might need is limitless. However, to take care of most emergency repairs, you can get by with a minimal number of tools:
• Pry bar (bigger really is better)
• An axe (demolition is part of repair; also good for chopping firewood)
• Bow saw (for cutting off broken tree limbs)
• Shovels
• Claw hammer (standard carpenter’s hammer)
• Hand saws
• Staple gun (for attaching the tarps)
• A good utility knife with extra blades
• Pliers (channel locks, needle nose, vice grips)
• Screwdrivers
• Tape measure
• Good quality leather work gloves (don’t scrimp here)
• A ladder (tall enough to reach your roof)
• Tubing cutter (for plumbing)
• Wire cutters/strippers (for electrical repairs)
*To this list I would add a large can of ‘Leak Stopper’ – to repair leaks in roofs
Off the Grid News
Direct link…
http://www.offthegridnews.com/2013/11/25/27-must-have-items-to-repair-house-damage-after-a-disaster/
I thought most homes already had this stuff,of course then,am a carpenter!
My husband has all kinds of tools and materials too in his workshop.
You would be surprised how many people DON’T have basic repair supplies and tools.
I think a total black-out would be great, except for the danger of the world’s nuclear reactors going critical when the backup generators run out of diesel.
If we could draw down our reactors, eliminate our dependence on nuclear energy, then we would have much less to worry about from a solar short-circuit. But, that’s not going to happen. It is not human nature to make substantive changes when they could have made a difference.
Instead, we deplete every possible resource, only begrudgingly changing when there is no other option, kicking and screaming the whole way. We are a virus upon the Earth, plain and simple. Solar flares, earthquakes, asteroid impacts, tsunamis, are simply nature’s attempt at inoculation.
Have a great day!
-Heel
Then all the people would die from lack of electricity.
And that’s….a bad thing?
And the smell of death would be great for you?
No power, no water and plenty of mayhem.
How did y’alls animals fare in this cold?…mine seem to have done okay…have to wait a bit to see if any combs/toes got nipped but no problems thusfar…anybody here spend any time outside in the woods last day or two?…man the popping and cracking sounded like the trees were busting up(some were)…had a aluminum ladder up against a maple tree and everytime the wind moved that tree that ladder set up a moaning like a trumpet peeling(woulda freaked some folks out)…that was at about -15F or so….once the temp came up to around 0F it seemed to stop making that noise…odd how temps will affect metals and such…maybe this flare will warm things up a bit? ;)…anyhow do what you can with what you have where you are and enjoy your life…keep warm!
Mine seem to have done OK at about the same temp as you. I kept them in the small section of the coop with a couple of them “old fashioned” 100w bulbs and a heated waterer. But they quit laying now for some reason. Last winter they didn’t stop. I dunno…maybe they’ll start again before Spring. If not, they’ll get et.
It was pretty windy here so I stayed out of the woods. I don’t like the falling branches.
I go snowshoeing in the woods every couple days. I wear a hat with a neck apron to keep the snow falling off the trees from going down the back if my shirt. Wool keeps me warm and wicked. Trees popping all the time keeps the adrenaline up.
People don’t fully appreciate the size of the earth and its distance from the sun.
The sun’s diameter is 865,000 miles. The earth’s diameter is 7900 miles. The earth’s orbit is about 584,000,000 miles.
Imagine this: The sun is 8.65 feet in diameter, the earth is 1 inch in diameter, and it’s 930 feet away. How often will the sun hit the earth with a solar flare? Not every often.
how many times does a flare have too hit ?
just once
People don’t fully appreciate the size of a CME compared to the size of Earth.
The average CME is 1 to 10 billion tons of particles. It spreads as it leaves the sun. It increases speed to over 1,000,000 miles per hour. It takes hours for the CME to pass Earth once the leading edge arrives. Since the CME is going over 1,000,000 miles per hour, the size of the CME is in the millions of miles, at least in the direction of travel. I don’t know that the CME is the same size in all directions, but it should be larger than Earth and have a better chance of hitting.
If I understood correctly, the sun rotates on its axis every 5-6 days, so earths large orbit doesn’t come into play to the extent one would think. I could be wrong. It is easier to be wrong than right
The American Way of Life is Non-negotiable(tm).
Therefore, as of today, I, your President, am declaring A War on the Sun(tm).
It will take a massive effort to collapse the entire sun. An effort the likes of which we have not seen since another bully, in Nazi Germany, threatened millions of innocent lives. But Americans are up to the challenge.
Americans are too wimpy for any crisis. We have been trained that way to live in fear to be controlled.
It’s just another flare. I would not get my hopes up.
Bi
I don’t typically leave comments, but I would like to say that I really appreciate your insightful posts. I am at my bug out place on the idaho Wyoming border near the teton range. Last week I felt 3 distinct earthquake movements . They were quick and short about a day or so apart. Hope that its not telegraphing a larger one to follow.
“Had it hit Earth, the July 2012 event likely would have created a technological disaster by short-circuiting satellites, power grids, ground communication equipment and even threatening the health of astronauts and aircraft crews.”
Okay… Not to change the subject but… Basically what I’m getting from this article is:
When this actually Happens, We’re going to have a FUKUSHIMA EVENT at every other Nuclear Plant around the World, due to Containment Cooling Failures… And we’re all going live in a Toxic Wasteland… WoW.
I Wonder if all the Nuclear Industry Lobbyists have thought of that? How about the President? Nah! They’ve been paid too much to “fugget about it”.
this is a double exposure thats why the sun looks so big behind the trees. in reality you need a telescope to see this
Anyone think that this will be a much larger event than what they are predicting? Trust me I’m with the government doesn’t sit well and I wonder if this is just a “We told you it was coming but oops we were wrong about the size of the event” cover up. No way to stop the panic when it happens but a perfect way to keep the sheep happy until it is too late. Make sure you have your gear and plans ready in case I am right.
I urge you to run south.
I’ve heard it said, our sun could by a 11 yearly cycle pulsar, or the likes. Popping off one big final flare as the magnetic coils which run through the sun pop back into a normal rythmic pattern.
In our direction, an X45 might do a bit more than fry transformers.