Peter Schiff: IF The U.S. Is Hit By A Recession, Trump Unlikely To Win Reelection

by | Aug 2, 2019 | Headline News, Peter Schiff | 24 comments

Do you LOVE America?


    Infamous gold bug and financial analyst Peter Schiff recently opined on President Donald Trump’s reelection chances.  Schiff says that if the United States goes through a recession before 2020, Trump is highly likely to lose.

    Trump has made this “booming” economy a core in his speeches and tweets and he has taken responsibility for it on numerous occasions.  Because of that, he’ll be blamed for the next recession regardless of when that actually occurs. His reelection will be an uphill battle, but not an impossible one. “The president tweets every day that we have the strongest economy in history, which isn’t even close to being true,” Schiff said in an interview with RT according to a report by Schiff Gold.

    Schiff, who is CEO of Euro Pacific Capital, says he thinks the recession will come before the next election too, making it a difficult road for the president.  “I think that Trump is likely to lose the next election because I think the U.S. economy can easily be in recession,” Schiff told Kitco News. Schiff said that in the last presidential election, Trump was able to expose the shortcomings of the economy and leverage on the frustrations of many voters. However, this time around, the political environment may not sway in Trump’s favor.

    “Everybody thought we had a good economy under Obama. The media kept talking about it, Wall Street kept talking about it, but I knew the recovery was phony, and so did Trump, and Trump was able to play into that by basically leveling with the American public that the data that they were being given from the government was a fraud, that we were living in a bubble created by cheap money, and the recovery was an illusion created by statisticians,” he said. And of course, all of that is correct and still is to this day.

    “But now, Trump is the system. He didn’t drain the swamp, he is now the leader of the swamp. The swamp is now deeper and murkier as a result of Trump,” he said. The U.S. economy is headed for a recession no matter what the Federal Reserve does and how much they cut rates.  It is inevitable, says Schiff.

    In an interview with RT, Schiff said that the main reason the Fed is cutting rates is to try to keep the air from coming out of the stock market bubble.

    “The other reason is they’re trying to keep this so-called expansion going. There they’re going to fail. I think we’re headed for recession regardless of what the Fed does with rates. The only thing the Fed is going to succeed in doing is reviving inflation. The Fed claims inflation is too low and they want to make sure the rate goes up. Well, that’s going to be their only success. But unfortunately, that’s also going to be their biggest failure.”

    Schiff says the other problem is that this “booming” economy is a lie. It’s nothing more than a gigantic bubble, and when the Fed lowered interest rates, they succeeded in inflating the bubble.

    It’s a bubble. Powell doesn’t seem to understand that. He seems to think the economy is doing OK. It’s not. The economy today is in worse shape than it was before it collapsed in 2008. The Fed inflated a much bigger bubble this time than it did last time. And yes, the longer we succeed in kicking the can down the road, the greater the imbalances grow as a result of this bubble, and the more painful it is when the air comes out. And that’s what’s going to happen. And what’s going to be so much worse about the coming recession is that it’s going to be inflationary. We’re going to have stagflation except it’s going to be a recession, not just stagnation, and the inflation rate is going to be far higher than it was the last time we had stagflation, which was in the 1970s.


    Peter Schiff is the author of Crash Proof 2.0: How to Profit From the Economic Collapse.

    The economic and monetary disaster which seasoned prognosticator Peter Schiff predicted is no longer hypothetical-it is here today. And nobody understands what to do in this situation better than the man who saw it coming. For more than a decade, Schiff has not only observed the economy but also helped his clients restructure their portfolios to reflect his outlook. What he sees today is a nation facing an economic storm brought on by growing federal, personal, and corporate debt; too little savings; and a declining dollar.

    Throughout the book, Schiff explains the factors that will affect your future financial stability and offers a specific three-step plan to battle the current economic downturn.


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      1. Republicans will just sell off American business rights and natural resources, to support their own cronies, and never admit to any recession.

        Democrats will not show any gratitude, no matter how many liberal demographics are supported by unexplainable, corporate welfare, out of nowhere.

        Trees, groundwater, real estate, monopolism, the great replacement.

      2. Bottom line
        This a country of producers and takers.
        Boeing V Google.
        Exxon V Facebook.
        Ford V Twitter.
        Bottom line is that there are more takers than producers.
        Though Democrats are about 30% of the population, They are 95% of the media.
        Prepare for the worst, regardless of the economy.

      3. This sort of falls under the category of obvious. Trump will continue to raid the treasury to keep this afloat. Just like everyone before him.

      4. Mr Schiff is right, the economy is not good as far as jobs go.

        What Mr Schiff doesn’t seem to realize is that Chair Powell doesn’t really care about the economy when it comes to jobs, even if he says he does. That’s not in his sphere of responsibilities. Chair Powell is a banker and he only cares about keeping the banking system afloat. That means continuing to keep the debt growing to keep his banking cronies collecting their compound interest income. Whatever needs inflated to keep the banking system running will be inflated. Whoever needs liquidity, will get it. Whatever has to be financialized, will be. Whatever can needs kicked to keep things going will be kicked. When the Central Banks can no longer keep the worldwide debt growing, then things will collapse. This is actually MMT but they call it “accommodation” or “QE” or “Operation Twist” or some other fancy name. Doesn’t matter…it’s still a Magic Money Tree.

        • Oh, I’m sure Mr. Schiff realizes a lot more than you do.

        • There is a very good chance the US is just one recession away from socialism. How do you think that will work out?

      5. bullshit. the Trump voters will rather vote for Trump that any of the Dimocraps regardless of the economy. His attempt to secure the border is the main reason he will be reelected. the garbage that will be the Dimocrap nominee assures a second term.

        • feel the same here. Dems have made no forward progress or improvement via legislation of any kind since taking over parts of congress. Its become painfully obvious all they have managed to do is form committees and go on about this whole Russia fiasco. if the economy takes a sh1t, its a simple matter of voters looking at one group who has done nothing to improve the situation, and at another man who has been doing his darndest to get things done regardless. Yes, the mindless drones will vote a party line, but the rest of us free thinkers that make or break elections are paying attention.

          • “An empty stomach is not a good political barometer” rings true with empty stomach being a euphemism for job loss. It’s unlikely that post Bill Clinton NAFTA and China Free Trade that the Democrats will be viewed as economic saviors. Their overall abandonment of the middle class not just in deed but word and instead embracing every freakazoid and radical cause has sealed their fate. A war however can bring down Trump.

            • Barry didn’t show eligibility, in advance of running for office.

              The Donald didn’t show funding for the wall, nor was he ready to put her in prison — with the no more than a stroke of the pen.

              You are not making these people show work, already completed, in the here-and-now, so will keep falling for empty promises.

              k2 said, “An empty stomach is not a good political barometer” rings true with empty stomach being a euphemism for job loss.

              But, it should be the barometer of all barometers. Shame on people.

              He’s going around, legalizing homosexuality in the third world, saying how replacement demographics’ jobs numbers have never been higher, while we expect him to restore the social contract to white men.

              Where is the work completed? (Not begun, not promised, not implied.) Show me your work, the math teacher said. Have you built something, in the shop. Where is it, now?

              Rose’s comparison between politics and religion is apt. It can all be debunked with just one word. Now, now, now. Show me, first, people who live in consensus reality.

      6. Said it once will say it again, Peter Schiff is a cock nugget.

      7. comment censored for your security
        thought crime purge

      8. comment censored for community standard

      9. Has anyone noticed that the real problem is tax reform. Right now an average person pays federal, state, SSA, medicare, local, and school tax before they can cash their pay check. Then they pay real estate taxes, sales tax (even on asprins, soda, laundry soap……any non food item, even toilet paper), gasoline tax at the pump to fill their car to go to work. If they smoke or drink beer that is also taxed. How about school clothes or supplies? They are also taxed when purchased. The candidate that talks about reforming these taxes is the big winner.

      10. There is a very strong possibility of a black swan event. Rush Limbaugh thinks Michael Obama is waiting in the wing to jump in the presidential race. Obama really wants back in office. She [it] could win if economy goes down. Oprah would give her lots of exposure. Better get a bigger bowl of popcorn.

      11. The national elections are so close that the results are dependent upon a small group of swing voters. Also, remember this? There hasn’t been a correction in the market yet. We are long overdue.

      12. “Everybody thought we had a good economy under Obama. … ”

        I live in the DC area and no one I knew thought that. And we all had jobs. We saw the cost of living go up in leaps-and-bounds, but our paycheck didn’t keep up, or worse, fell. This is an area where most jobs pay pretty well; even entry level types of jobs aren’t too shabby compared to the rest of the country.

        However, during Obama’s term in office, anyone who had a job hung onto it tightly because anything better was rare if there was even another to be had. Food banks regularly called out via media for donations due to often falling short of their needs.

        This “everybody” referred to must have been those in a rarefied strata.

      13. If their is a down turn and I am sure the Democrats have and will be doing all they can to insure a down turn. If Trump does not win against the field of Morons the Democrats have on the team
        or a Mike Obama in the wings… If the American are to stupid to see through all that, then we as a nation get what they will hand out.

      14. Well Trunp has done some things. And if not for the inactive congress he could have done more. Trump used what he had to work with . The threat of hefty Tarriff make the Mexican government start policing their southern border and agree to keep aysulm seekers in Mexico. He has appointed conservative judges in a lot of federal courts. Just last week he won a ruling in the US supreme court that allows military money to be spent on the border wall. He has told the stupid greenies in the UN to shove it at the Paris accord.. He quit paying bribes to Iran that Obummer granted to them. He has stood up to over two years of relentless attacks from the Left wing and Fake news Media over the false Russia Witch hunt.. President Trump Is far from perfect. Too cozy with the 3ews to suit me. However The far left is so horrible anti American anti second admendment and pro NWO _UN -Agenda 21 that they make him look like Divine intervention. Better to stay with the Devil we know than some uncertain Dimocrap.

        • I agree with you. One thing Trump has done is give us 4 more years to get ready which we have been doing. This country is on the edge of something no matter who wins. I would not want to be living in the cities when it does come about!!

      15. My screen says that this article has been read by 58 people and there is one comment, ironically that one comment is by someone using the title “clown world”.

        Trump is likely to lose the next election if we have a recession, according to the article’s author, Peter Schiff. Trump was predicted to lose the election in 2016, but he managed to win anyway. It’s not over till it’s over; and, in this case, it hasn’t even begun, yet. Nevertheless, Schiff could be correct. In which case our biggest problems will be the same problems regardless of whom wears the title of President. Will we go to war? Will we have another war with a Country in the Middle East? Will we?

        Will unchecked immigration continue to overwhelm our financial resources, displace workers, and result in more unemployment, homelessness, and desperation?

        Will multiculturalism make us stronger, or will we have more tensions erupt into chaotic scenes?

        Just what will the future bring?


        • It sounds to me like he is willing to crash the country just to defeat Trump, and is encouraging others to follow. I think liberals would prefer chaos, anarchy and socialism along with destruction of our country than to have a good economy IF it is under Trump. There is something evil about the liberal agenda and it’s being taught in our total educational system, beginning in the first grade. Eventually we (conservatives) will have to fight or die.

      16. And Robert Barnes rides out of left field, he’s reaching, he’s stretching, he’s in the air. He caught it! I’m going with Barnes and Paul on these issues. Corrections will happen and regardless of whomever is in office, it’s the idea of liberty that is the most important consideration. Stagflation is already here, and CPI is not an adequate measure of rampant inflation ongoing. Paying $9 for a gallon of organic milk and $5 a dozen organic eggs, price of labor services has more than doubled in 5 years. It’s important to remember there are talking heads for all major economic influences, but they’re not necessarily saying anything of substance for regular everyday Americans. Just don’t use your home like an atm, and hopefully if you’re no longer burdened by a home mortgage, and actually own your home, you’ll have twice the staying power if not three times the staying power, of your indebted neighbors and such. Market corrections will happen, it’s inevitable, but these guys continue to dress this up as alarmist or revelation sort of opinion. What’s new?

      17. The tipping point is here now. As I have been saying for ELEVEN YEARS, the stock market WILL crash starting at the end of THIS month. Look for a FORTY PERCENT DROP to the low point on the LAST FRIDAY of October 2019. The ONLY way it will not get that low is if the markets are closed. Based on current numbers, look for a new market high at the end of THIS month, then look for a low 40% UNDER the August highs on the LAST FRIDAY OF OCTOBER.

        Herbert Hoover (R) lost in 1932 because of the 1929 crash. DT policies parallel Hoover’s, so DT could easily LOSE in 2020 because of the 2019 crash. The only real difference between HH and DT is that people then had 2 extra years to feel the pain before the election. That may give DT an edge since the pain will likely not hit home to the electorate until 2021 or later. Further, though not likely, DT may be able to TEMPORARILY shift some of the blame back to Obama long enough to get re-elected.

        I don’t know what news will shock the markets around Labor Day, but something will, and that will start the market slide for the next 8 weeks. Then there will be shock after shock for the next two months.

        After October, look for a market bounce. Most likely it will be a dead-cat bounce similar to 1929, but the bounce WILL restore some of the confidence and will probably last until after the election. Hoover lost because the dead-cat bounce was over long before 1932 with things being worse in 1932 versus 1929. Today I expect that 2022 will be FAR worse than 2019, but that will be 2 years after the election.

        So, even though a recession is GUARANTEED to happen, the TIMING may allow DT to get re-elected, leaving him to clean up the mess during his second term. If he loses, America is TOAST, as NONE of the Dems have a clue what to do other than make things WORSE and WORSE just like FDR did.

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