When President Trump won the election last year, he did so without the benefit of the popular vote. He was quick to point out that had it not been for the millions of illegal aliens who probably voted, he would have handily won the popular vote as well. Meanwhile, the liberal media laughed at his “fake news” claims, because supposedly, there was no evidence that millions of noncitizens had voted in the election. They cited studies which suggested that not only were his claims overblown, but the number of illegal aliens that voted was practically nonexistent.
However, it turns out that those studies ignored some very vital details. According to a research group that has been poring over old election data, millions of noncitizens have voted in previous elections, which suggests that the same thing happened in the 2016 election.
Just Facts President James D. Agresti and his team looked at data from an extensive Harvard/YouGov study that every two years questions a sample size of tens of thousands of voters. Some acknowledge they are noncitizens and are thus ineligible to vote.
Just Facts’ conclusions confront both sides in the illegal voting debate: those who say it happens a lot and those who say the problem nonexistent.
In one camp, there are groundbreaking studies by professors at Old Dominion University in Virginia who attempted to compile scientifically derived illegal voting numbers using the Harvard data, called the Cooperative Congressional Election Study.
On the other side are the professors who conducted the study and contended that “zero” noncitizens of about 18 million adults in the U.S. voted. The liberal mainstream media adopted this position and proclaimed the Old Dominion work was “debunked.”
There’s only one problem with the Harvard study that was often cited by the media. It ignores factors which, when considered, paint a totally different picture of previous elections that placed Barack Obama in the White House.
“The details are technical, but the figure I calculated is based on a more conservative margin of sampling error and a methodology that I consider to be more accurate,” Mr. Agresti told The Washington Times.
He believes the Harvard/YouGov researchers based their “zero” claim on two flawed assumptions. First, they assumed that people who said they voted and identified a candidate did not vote unless their names showed up in a database.
“This is illogical, because such databases are unlikely to verify voters who use fraudulent identities, and millions of noncitizens use them,” Mr. Agresti said.
He cites government audits that show large numbers of noncitizens use false IDs and Social Security numbers in order to function in the U.S., which could include voting.
Second, Harvard assumed that respondent citizens sometimes misidentified themselves as noncitizens but also concluded that noncitizens never misidentified themselves as citizens, Mr. Agresti said.
“This is irrational, because illegal immigrants often claim they are citizens in order to conceal the fact that they are in the U.S. illegally,” he said.
So what are the results when you consider factors like that? Agresti believes that between 594,000 and 5.7 million noncitizens voted in the 2008 election. In 2012, between 1.2 million and 3.6 million noncitizens voted. Since people who aren’t citizens (especially if they are illegal aliens) have far more support for Democrats than Republicans, it’s obvious that the noncitizen vote tipped the scales for Barack Obama, and won the popular vote for Hillary Clinton (on paper of course).
I’d imagine that the numbers for the 2016 election are even higher than what we’ve seen in previous elections. After all, Trump was running on a campaign that promised to build a wall on the southern border, and roll back immigration in a big way. That would have motivated millions of illegal immigrants to break the law and vote. When you consider that, it becomes really hard to believe that Trump lost the popular vote.
And this is one of the biggest reasons why the Democrats and the Left are more alarmed by Trump than any previous Republican president. If he makes good on his promise to deport more illegal immigrants, and prevent millions more from reaching our nation, it’ll be a long time before they win any major elections.