Morgan Stanley has just told their investors that the market is flashing an indicator of a downturn. They suggested playing defense as this historical downturn marker has often led to lower returns. When the bank says “play defense,” we suggest prepping for the worst.
If Wall Street is preparing for a recession, the rest of us should be too. We are not shielded from the moves in the stock market or the policies of governments, unfortunately. Morgan Stanley’s cross-assets team, who says their cyclical indicator has flipped to “downturn” from “expansion,” a shift that has historically led to weaker returns for stocks and other risky assets, along with an elevated chance of a recession, according to a report by Market Watch. In a note dated on Sunday, the bank advised market participants to go on the defensive, eschewing U.S. stocks for the safety of Treasurys and cash.
Financial preparedness for the rest of should now take a front seat as well. Although there is likely still time before the next recession, it would be wise to get your financial house in order now while, as the mainstream media puts it “times are good” and we have a “robust economy.”
“With U.S. data still above-average but deteriorating, our cycle indicator has shifted out of ‘expansion’ to ‘downturn’ for the first time since 2007,” wrote Serena Tang, a cross-asset strategist, adding that its downturn phase indicates when the improvement in economic data has started to slow or weaken outright. “With the cycle indicator in ‘downturn’, together with still-rich valuations and increasing uncertainties about trade tensions, we reiterate our call for a defensive stance,” wrote Tang.
Morgan Stanley’s cyclical indicator aggregates economic and financial markets data, including the yield curve’s slope, consumer confidence, and debt issuance. In particular, credit issuance, consumer confidence, and manufacturing gauges have started to soften in recent months.
This all points to a recession in perhaps around one year from now. That gives us some time, even though no one can say for certain when the next recession will officially begin. This indicator last flashed in 2006 when investors were still making gains, and the Great Recession had not fully taken hold of the U.S. economy.
Oh good! The market crash is finally here.
Fine gold and silver coins and bars are nice to have in your possession.
Yes it is and also laying on your back and pouring your treasure over you (treasure bath) is a GREAT feeling LOL.
No doubt. I sure do like gold and silver and it sure cannot hurt to have some. It’s the oldest money there is.
Before I figured out it was a waste of my talents, I was a business major. I remember my Macro and Micro economics classes.
The one lesson I came away with that if you produce something people need, you will always be able to survive, but odds are you won’t get rich.
If you produce something people want, you may get very rich, or go very bust.
These days most our population is in services and we really don’t need many services. I don’t need a cell phone, a new movie, a gold coin, or a self driving car.
I need shelter, water, power, food, and the tools to obtain those resources..
Think about that when you invest your time and money.
Good point but I have all that squared away for quite a while now. Time to focus on some fun and adventure! 4 wheelers are great for fun and preps and all kinds of things. Build a shooting range, it’s fun practical, keeps you sharp too. As much as I think boats are a money pit I got a 500 dollar peddle boat then outfitted it with an electric motor and solar power. It’s great to get out on the water with the wife and doggie and check out places that are hard to do on foot and cheap low maintenence. Go explore all the places around you, it is fun and you will learn what resources you have nearby. Find an old mine and fix it up! Make it plan C. Go prospecting and maybe get lucky with some extra bux. Quit being absorbed by end of the world shit and get a balance of fun and prepping. Some of the things I just mentioned are dual purpose. Going solar saves you the power bill and makes you self sufficient a win win! All kinds of fun things and practical things are also closet prepping! 😉
Gen,
Discounting my time as it is a hobby, Boats are a hole in the water to pour money into. But doing 20-22 knots under sail is a real rush. Although I’ve since sold it, I could go anywhere in the world, in comfort in my 45′ Trimaran Sailboat. Solar powered. The ultimate BOL. Were it not for the fact my wife got so seasick, I’d be in a way different place than “on the hard” in Hawaii.
Research the top 70 tools everyone should have.
This gives you a good idea of how to prepare for life. It includes both manual, electric, gas, and battery run tools.
Did you know that the first hammer was invented when someone tried a rock to a branch with some type of reed or such.
Manual tools are only dependent on human energy and need to be kept for backup.
If there is going to be a recession, people will repair rather than replace, as it is less expensive. Those without tools, and the knowledge to use them, will rely on those who do have tools and know how to use them.
Being a fixer is not glamorous but it is practical. You can make extra money working as a handyman. It is good training for if the bottom falls out. And there is always a need for someone who knows how to get it done.
Car mechanic is also a useful skill. All around do-it-yourself is good preparation for a recession.
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Many hand tools are dirt cheap at yard sales. I have multiples of everything and it is handy as hell (when you break something). I also have multiples of power tools and means to run them. I have 2 large sets of dewalt power tools and my cost was 220 bux (1 was 100 the other 120) replacement batteries (with higher Ah) are cheap as hell on ebay. I have 2 sheds and 1/2 a 40 foot conex packed with tools. It’s like silver, I just can’t stop buying lol.
Craigslist is great for deals on everything! Our 4 wheelers and tools (80%) are from there. I got a polaris 300 all wheel drive with 600 hours on it in excellent shape for 1900! Be frugal and never forget to have FUN!
It’s called the 2020 election. Did anyone really think they’d let trump campaign on the economy? Shows how little control you have. Enjoy the ride and watching your retirement disappear while they get richer. One day the 7 BILLION people on this planet who aren’t the 1% will wake up and God help those 1% when they do.
No amount of strategy can turn this tide.
The slave masters know what your needs are and have raised prices on all that stuff. The tariffs are designed to recover the $15 hr minimum wage being implemented. they can’t give you a raise and then raise taxes to recover the $ you will be pissed and know what they are doing to keep you struggling. People might protest with violence against the gov. Trump spends so much time trying to dumb everyone down to believe china is gonna pay and fools believe him. trump is an expert con man liar and a actor he has the masses duped. Don’t understand how people can’t see this. Billions of dollars are at stake just follow the $ and you will learn the truth.
“cyclical”
Isn’t there a more-or-less regular number of years, between crests and troughs.
Ho-hum, how many times have we heard this before?
A cycle is not necessarily an example of futility. You can plan around this and put it to creative use.
Possibly, I should take a Sabbatical, to bug-in.