Leading Indicator Of Home-Remodeling Activity Warns Big Drop Coming

by | Jul 29, 2019 | Headline News | 21 comments

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    This article was originally published by Tyler Durden at ZeroHedge.

    Growth in residential remodeling spending is expected to fall through 2H20, according to the Leading Indicator of Remodeling Activity (LIRA) published by the Remodeling Futures Program at the Joint Center for Housing Studies of Harvard University.

    The leading indicator [LIRA] forecasts that annual growth in homeowner expenditures for improvement will plunge 6.3% in the current quarter to just .40% by late spring 2020, an ominous sign that a deep structural slowdown which started in 1Q18 is now spreading like cancer through the broader economy.

    “Declining home sales and homebuilding activity coupled with slower gains in permitting for improvement projects will put the brakes on remodeling growth over the coming year,” says Chris Herbert, Managing Director of the Joint Center for Housing Studies. “However, if falling mortgage interest rates continue to incentivize home sales, refinancing, and ultimately remodeling activity, the slowdown may soften some.”

    “With the release of new benchmark data from the American Housing Survey, we’ve also lowered our projection for market size about 6% to $323 billion,” says Abbe Will, Associate Project Director in the Remodeling Futures Program at the Center. “Spending in 2016 and 2017 was not nearly as robust as expected, growing only 5.4% over these two years compared to 11.9% as estimated.”

    Fannie Mae has reported sales of existing homes will total 5.35 million in 2019, flat from last year’s 5.34 million. Data from the National Association of Realtors shows existing-home sales reached a post-housing-bust high of 5.51 million in 2017 – but since – the trend has stalled.

    Another measure of the remodeling market is the confidence of building contractors which topped in December 2017 and has formed a top comparable to what was seen in June 2005, June 1999, November 1993, and December 1986/88. Over the last three decades, as soon as the Federal Reserve transitions from a tightening cycle to pause, then cutting, the confidence of building contractors tends to crash.

    With homebuilder sentiment expected to slump for the next four quarters, XHB SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF, which is heavily weighted with Williams-Sonoma (4.97%), Whirlpool Corp (4.81%), Lowe’s Companies (4.61%), and the Home Depot (4.59%), companies that are widely popular with contractors and homeowners looking to remodel, could be headed for a plunge.

    But through the summer, Wall Street anticipates that rate cuts will produce a soft landing with a tremendous rebound in the 2H; and in our humble opinion, a rate cycle is nine months too late – stimulus in the form of rate cuts will be less effective than ever before to save President Trump’s moribund economy.


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      1. So much for prep for shtf plan and advice….once a good site and how far it’s fallen.
        I suspect the owners have been “instructed” —-
        —no more articles on deep state, shadow government, corruption and pedophilia at the highest levers of the “Republic”.
        So now we get mosquitoes and home remodeling crap.

        • I don’t come here much, site turned into nothing but BS? Few guys telling what they have, where they live, and how they are set when the SHTF? Couple guys live on one of the most liberal islands on the planet, and talk about how much better off they are than the rest of us? Don’t know about you”ll, but I learned a long time ago, consider the source! No matter where you are, as long as you are not in a major city, you are better off than those guys? If things really go bad, they are in a bad way! In the mean time their cost of living in crazy? Use common sense, PRAY, PREPARE, and keep your mouth shut? GOD BLESS ALL!!!!

      2. Noone, except quota cases moved into the ‘mello roos’. I would rather have an open field, if it wasn’t full of needles, Mehican trash, abandoned cars, and hobo poop.

        en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mello-Roos Covers horrible cover bands, in the ghetto park and lavish living for corrupt officials, who brought alphabet soup agencies to city hall. (True story.)

        This same house, in the new cul-de-sac, gets a new family, every so many days. First, black people with a polio-looking kid, then, white people with an autistic screamer, now, Latins. Waiting to see what kind of damaged kid comes out.

        Not the kids’ fault. I let them pet the dog. But, there’s no way this migrancy wasn’t subsidized. They didn’t earn the mcmansion, folks.

        These will generally come with an HOA-approved property maintenance company (braceros, to helpfully leaf-blower dirt into open car windows, but not put any small brush piles into the large greenwaste bin).

        When the house half falls apart, due to Chinese-made big box store house-flipper garbage building materials, the communist bank will remodel for the next set of unfortunates (lottery winners).

        “slower gains in permitting for improvement projects”

        The anchor baby, who says that a light switch needs to be moved, 2 inches, on a 20ft long wall. I saw this.

        I wasn’t trained to see this.

        I hear kids who weren’t trained to see this, and they’re seeing it.

        The brainwashing didn’t hold.

        In part, the permitting process is slowed when you tell the private owner to put in tens of thousands of dollars of new sidewalk (gangbanger company), and that requires a landscaping engineer, to plan the ugly, generic plants…

        The premise of the article is that busywork is not a dependable comedy of errors. But, it’s derivatives probably all come with insured, legal guarantees for champagne communists, who buy into these ppp’s. .

        • All that may be why those that can, have been moving to the country.

          • Communist Manifesto. Marx. Plank #9 —
            “Combination of Agriculture with Manufacturing Industries; Gradual Abolition of the Distinction Between Town and Country by a More Equable Distribution of the Population over the Country.”

            Productive orchards, cattle pastures, and flowing springs were cemented-over, within the last three generations, here.

            With all due respect, this is what’s happening to the countryside.

            National resources are sold-off, in order to cover the vast majority of unfit people.

            Replacement demographics have made it to Maine, Alaska, and the nicer, foreign countries, ultimately, to overtake you and your family. Show me the state or the country. I’ll show you a news item and a subsidy.

            How many more times can you move?

            • Why is it Mexican landscapers and drywall guys are driving 2019 full size trucks? Cash. They contribute nothing to American society.?

      3. Well of course. Trump et al juiced the economy and added a trillion in debt. He follows a number of other free spending politicians. So now we are out of juice. Let the fun begin. Time to separate the men from the animals. Political correctness goes down the tubes when you are hungry.

        • Pardon my mincing of words, but, if this is how the economy actually works, he has just operated or used the economy, as intended.

      4. Well of course. Trump et al juiced the economy and added a trillion in debt. He follows a number of other free spending politicians. So now we are out of juice. Let the fun begin. Time to separate the men from the animals. Political correctness goes down the tubes when you are hungry.
        It’s about time.

        • Why would you invest more in your home if the neighbourhood was filling up with homeless and Africans and Muslims on welfare? That is the reality for people in most cities. And blacks never invest in their homes; that’s why their furniture has plastic on it because it is on loan.

          They also have the view the ‘hood is white man’s land and they will just burn it down if they feel like it.

          That is the economic problem with white replacement policies. Look at Africa: same thing happened there and all the nice areas where whites used to live went downhill after they were pushed out. And nothing good was built there to improve it. That stops making sense when the financial system relies on hypothecating wealth based on home valuations. Look at Detroit: houses go for a dollar there. Even a hypothecated single dollar doesn’t add up to too much.

      5. The primary reason building is tanking is two-fold;

        1. You don’t own your property. Municipal Corporations do in fact. Back, way back, in the day they would hold a “mortgage burning” party when your home was paid off and you owned it “free and clear”. Back then your home was your “shelter”, now its a commercial “residence”.

        2. Regulation – There are myriad new methods of cheaply building homes. There are 3D printers that will literally print your home out of concrete; a Russian firm built Stark Castle (GOT) as a publicity stunt. In Asia they’re building homes out of concrete foam panels. Try that in the US if you’re just a regular Joe. You would end up paying MORE in permit fees and engineer reports than the MATERIALS would cost.

        If you own your land, then applicable Code should be “free standing structure”. But that might result in something the government can’t steal and sell to their buddies.

        • Modern technology means homes can be built cheaply and quickly. However, since housing is the main economic indicator and the value of housing is used to hypothecate debt, they will never allow affordable homes. Affordable housing would lead to economic collapse for the West.

          We are caught in a debt vice. That means you have to understand that and use it to your advantage.

          As an example, the need to maintain housing value can be used to clean your neighbourhood of crappy people. Too many criminals, homeless, refugees etc.? Take lots of photos and post online beside pictures of real estate developments. The homeless will be cleared away. No real estate developer wants pictures of knee grows to pollute their new development they are trying to sell in Asia.

      6. They will go to longer mortgages like they did with auto loans in order to get monthly payments affordable for buyers.. They have had 100 year mortgages in Europe and Japan since 1995. They need to keep the debt growing or their system collapses. Don’t worry, they still have some tricks up their sleeve to keep the people enslaved to them. The FIRE slice of the economy grows and grows. The manufacturing slice shrinks and shrinks.

      7. As far as all the complaints about this no longer being a strictly prepping site, it never was. I have been on here since 2011 and it always was a mix of politics, financial, and prepping articles.

        Read the by-line. It says “When it hits the fan, don’t say we didn’t warn you.” It doesn’t say anything about prepping or financial or political. It only says it will warn you about the S hitting TF.

        Look at the archives and see for yourself that the mix is pretty even over the years. I like it because it is a mix. My prepping needs are mostly met so I like to read more on financial and energy politics, but I read the prepping posts, too. Of course YMMV and it’s a shame to see y’all go, but that’s your choice, of course. A few old time posters have left and started their own blogs over the years. One was organic, one was medical and one was political, are the ones I can remember. Cheers.

        • JRS, you make a good point, thanks for reminding me and anyone else.
          Posters come and go, it seems. Forum burnout, maybe.

          • I wonder if age may also contribute to people falling off the rolls. I know that ten years ago I was prepping with everything I could because I was positive the collapse was imminent. Things never collapsed. I guess things can continue on for longer than you’d expect. I have even started drawing down some of my food stores because I don’t want to burden my kids with too much stuff to get rid of when I pass. I still have plenty to last for quite a while, but at my age a “while” isn’t as long as it used to be.

            • Ya true. But more and more articles are so bad that people just change the subject in the comments.

      8. Respectfully disagree regarding downtrend since 1q18…I am a Pacific NW kitchen and bathroom remodeler for 22 yrs. Business has been increasing YOY 20+% past 3 yrs and up 50% YTD from same period 2018. It is possible that this is in the works and just hasn’t hit our area yet (thankfully), so please remember that things can be regionally different and not applicable in all areas of the country.

      9. IF americans DON’T see a WAR coming ,well it just proves how dumbed down they are…THE RUSSIANS AND CHINESE are here on US MILITARY bases and your POLICE GANGS AND MILITARY are protecting them.,,yea their all TRAITORS,so what’a going to do about it….nothing,thats the cowards way out,IT ALSO leads to your death,and the death of your women and children…But hey,You will get a free trip to hell,THE LORD HATES COWARDS…..

      10. Looks like to me it goes up and down. All normal.

      11. Trump is trying to bring the country in for a soft financial landing into Jan 2020. Economy turns up in Jan 2020. Last for 2 years, then slightly dips again in Spring of 2022, but not as bad. April 2023 turns up for one year. 2020 to 2022 will be high inflation.

        If you are lucky to have a pension, you might lose it. DemonRats bill wants 5 workers for every 2 retirees or above 40% of money in the pension fund or the pension will be allowed to go bankrupt. Any funding above 40% can take out a loan with no mention of how it will be paid back. The federal government will no longer bail them out. Cities, counties and states that have pilfered the pension funds or allowed businesses to under fund don’t want you to know. It is called legalized theft of a benefit you earned, but they robbed. Good luck police, fire fighters & teachers – you are screwed. Especially teachers who never paid into ss or Medicare.

        Cruz put in for capital gains to be offset by inflation. This is a good bill if and when you have something to sell.

        Farm land has been going up & will continue to do so for the foreseeable future due to natural disasters, cooler temperatures, South Africans won’t work farms they took over realizing it is hard work, South American farmers leaving for the U.S. freebies and to evade local government corruption. Commiefornia turned their farms into overpriced housing developments that people are bailing on. Highest growth will be farm land between mega cities and metro satellite cities. Especially in Texas where every land acre of farmland entitles the owner to 2 acre feet of aquifer water under their land as long as they don’t draw down beyond the 1997 drought level. Wilcox is the least polluted aquifer left in the country and it is in the bottom sentiment. Yes, I said country. Filtration works very well and is almost a necessity no matter where you live.

        2032 will be the start of the great decline and has the possibility of lasting a decade or two or more. Right now money is coming into the U.S., but look for the reversal beginning in 2032.

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