An influential survey of some of the world’s largest fund managers shows that the risk for a global financial downturn is the highest it has been in four years. Investors are now preparing themselves for the next recession, which some say, will make the Great Recession look like a cakewalk.
According to investors surveyed by Absolute Strategy Research, as reported by the Financial Times, investors are “buckling up” for the economic downturn they believe is imminent. ASR’s findings, which are based on a survey of more than 200 institutions controlling a combined $4 trillion of assets, suggest that the bond rally is not a blip.
Global bond markets have rallied in recent weeks as central banks have been responding to the numerous signs that major economies are looking increasingly weak. Investors have since ramped up purchases of government debt last week after Christine Lagarde’s nomination as the next European Central Bank (ECB) president. It appears that investors are betting that the International Monetary Fund chief’s appointment would mean the era of ECB stimulus is set to continue.
The survey indicates that investors anticipate a 45 percent chance of a global recession in the coming 12 months, the highest since the survey began in 2014. Investors have also shifted their views on where bonds markets are headed next. The majority now expect short-term US bond yields to be lower in a year’s time — a reversal since March, when more than half were banking on higher yields. Expectations that longer-dated yields and record-low yields in Europe will rebound have all but disappeared. –Financial Times
According to David Bowers, the ASR head of research, the United States indices are yet to show some of the telltale signs of doom and gloom. “If the bond market is really telling us something, at what point will the equity market wake up?” he said. “The survey embodies a fundamental tension in markets,” he added. “With recession risks running so high, you would expect a worse outlook for earnings. But the implicit assumption is that earnings risks for equities are not that great.”
Fund managers are also more bearish on the dollar than at any point in the past five years, the survey showed according to the Financial Times report. A weaker United States dollar would be excellent news for precious metals, with nearly two-thirds of investors expecting gold prices to rise in the next year.
That makes now a great time to invest in gold or other precious metals. Take the time to look around and get what you can afford. Now isn’t the time to go into debt to but gold, but there are some less expensive options out there. You could also grab some silver. Some silver is better than none if the dollar crashes under the weight of endless money printing and government debt.
Watch Deutsche Bank and, especially the entity to which they spin off their derivatives business. The bank’s management and their government are trying to save the bank by getting out of the gambling/trading. However, the derivatives still exist. Until they simply expire, the risk to the financial system, and the domino effect worldwide is almost incalculable.
The article is close, that preppers should prepare themselves for the next recession, which will make the Great Recession look like a cakewalk”. It will make the great depression look like a cake walk.
There will be NO MORE RECESSIONS because the world economy has kicked the can so many times previously any downturn will lead to an Inflationary Depression.
As a result in December I started violating my prohibition against stocking up more canned food than I could ROTATE through. Now I follow a line from a YouTube Prepper who states how much food should we store up: “ALL OF IT!”
I really believe that we are upon the Greatest Depression. I thought it was going to “start” last December during the government shutdown (That’s okay I was 10-12 months early in 2008). That’s when I started prepping more canned food than I could rotate through.
Every month a would buy 4 to 6 cases of Walmart Brand soups and diced potatoes. I am now sitting on a huge stack of decent food. Just today I special ordered 10 more cases of bean soup and picked up 5 cases of Tomato soup. Tomorrow I’m going back to get canned spaghetti sauce for 80 per can!
Finally, powdered milk is still a great price at amazon. Max of 4 per at $10.00.
NESTLE NIDO Fortificada Dry Milk 56.3 Ounce Canister
I know it’s been a long time but let’s not get complacent! I am seeing many of the same economic indicators that I witnessed in 2008. Remember that it’s better to be early that one day late!
German Doosh Bank looking like death sucking on a lifesaver planning to layoff thousands.
Yep, Dooshbank (It’s German so it’s one word) is the canary in the mine. It has the worst capitalization of any major bank and has long been the one everybody watches. I would imagine that Germany as well as the IMF will try to prop it up but the problem may be too big even for them. If it goes, look out. (and quickly get your money out of the bank).
Dang Justice, go easy on all that bean soup.
What they’re good for the heart. The more you eat, the more you something, the more you do that something, the better you feel. So make sure you eat beans with every meal!
Bean soup makes a great meal with a hot dog chopped up in it! Yummy!
We have stashed over 300 cans of Luck’s Mixed Beans. They regularly go on sale at the local Foodland at three for $1.50. I use them as a soup base.
Pour one can into a pan. Add a can of water. Then add whatever else you have on hand, fresh or home canned or dehydrated survival veggies or from your freezer.
I like freeze-dried spinach, dehydrated potatoes/carrots.
I also add two Tbs of barley and a Tbs of whole millet. These can be bought in bulk off the net.
Fresh onions and squash from the garden this time of year. Sliced fresh okra towards the end of the cooking time.
Add any kind of leftover meat or home canned meat.
Very filling and good for you, too.
repr sleepr, the “German Doosh Bank” has been a dead man walking for a while. But this recent news is significant. If any bank or government goes Lehman that will start the domino’s falling! It will not take much to start the “Bonfire of the Paper Assets”.
In a world of lies, I ONLY trust what I can hold in my hand and is NOT made of paper!
Justice, you might want to stockpile some spices too because beans and taters are pretty bland. CVS used to have really cheap spices and I see some stores carry their own brands now too. Maybe get some sauce mixes and gravy mixes also. Canned butter is the bomm! Don’t buy the butter powder shit, it is made of anything except butter. Good luck my man!
Crack a can of ravioli boys, it’s a comin’! Don’t ever let your ex wife tell you that you’re wrong for spending your shared life savings on canned goods and silver. When the recession hits she will regret choosing TODD over these canned goods. Don’t ever trust men named TODD if the apocalypse hits, they will steal your wife AND your canned goods.
Wouldn’t a economic downturn necessitate a downturn in prices across the board? Call me up in dreamland.
Those “Cash For Your Gold” buyers are going to be sorely disappointed this time around. Most folks dug around and found what they had and pawned it during the last recession.