In a Blow to Media Gun Narrative, Homicides Down in 2017

by | Sep 27, 2018 | Headline News | 9 comments

Do you LOVE America?


    This report was originally published by Ryan McMaken at the Mises Institute

    The FBI released new homicide data this week, and at the nationwide level, the 2017 homicide rate fell slightly, dropping to 5.3 homicides per 100,000 from 2016’s rate of 5.4.

    According to the report, there were 17,284 homicides in 2017. For context: drug overdoses killed 63,632 Americans in 2016 and more than 37,000 people were killed in motor vehicle accidents in 2016.

    The US homicide rate remains down considerably from the 1990s, when the homicide rate reached 9.8 per 100,000 in 1991:


    Homicide rates had reached a 51-year low in 2014, but have climbed since then.

    Nationwide, homicide rates also varied widely by state. The US states with the highest homicide rates in the new report were Louisiana, Missouri, Nevada, Maryland, and Arkansas. The states with the lowest rates were New Hampshire, North Dakota, Maine, Idaho, and Rhode Island. (I have added the most recent data from Canadian provinces for additional context.)


    We can see some geographical patterns if we look at the data in map form:


    Northern states tend to have much lower homicide rates overall with some of the lowest rates being found in New England, the northern plains, and the Pacific Northwest.

    Interestingly, the legal environment for gun ownership can vary widely in states with similar homicide rates. Massachusetts, for example, which is considered a restrictive state in terms of gun ownership, has a homicide rate nearly identical to that in Wyoming — where gun ownership laws are extremely lax. New Hampshire, which is also notable for having very lax gun-ownership laws, has the lowest homicide rate in the nation.

    Moreover, as noted in earlier articles on this topic, many of the states with the highest homicide are seeing their rates driven up by homicides in just a handful of cities and neighborhoods — many of which, like Chicago and Baltimore — have very restrictive gun-ownership laws.

    Moreover, as total gun sales in the US have increased in recent decades, homicide rates look to continue a long-term decline. According to the New York Times:

    Overall crime has been steadily decreasing for the last 30 years in the United States. Inimai Chettiar, director of the Justice Program at the Brennan Center, said the F.B.I.’s statistics — and her organization’s own projections — showed that the rise in crime in 2015-16 was most likely a blip in that trajectory, not the start of a crime wave.

    Media pundits, however, have attempted to create a narrative in which there is increasing violence. For example, a current strategy employed by gun-control advocates is to fixate on “school shootings” as evidence of increasing violence, even as homicide rates decreased. However, much of the data used to support this narrative has been flawed. Last month, National Public Radio revealed that many school shooting incidents in a recent federal report had been exaggerated, or were completely false. This was a further blow to attempts to create a new narrative of mounting violence in the face of historical data showing that school violence overall, including school shootings, declined considerably after the mid-1990s.

    But, for the sake of argument, let’s say that school violence is increasing in just the past two or three years — even while overall homicides fall. It’s not difficult to see what gun control advocates would fixate on school shooting in attempts to obtain more government restrictions on gun ownership. School shootings are dramatic events that make for good press conferences for politicians who pledge to “do something” for the children.

    The fact that the overwhelming majority of homicides are a product of far more “mundane” factors, like gang violence and domestic violence, don’t make for nearly as exciting news events. Thus, the fact that progress is clearly being made on those fronts is ignored while attention is drawn repeatedly to school shootings — which are then themselves reported at higher rates than is actually the case.

    Perhaps predictably, politicians have also attempted to take credit when falling homicide rates are acknowledged. As The New York Times reported, Jeff Sessions has attempted to portray the federal government as a key factor in falling rates:

    “But our work is not done,” he said. “While we have made progress, violent crime and drug trafficking continue to plague our communities and destroy the lives of innocent, law-abiding Americans.”

    In truth, there is no evidence at all that the federal government has had any role in falling homicide rates. If anything, the federal government’s role in violent crime is a negative one as it continues to prosecute the war on drugs, making the illegal drug trade more lucrative and more violent.

    Similarly, local police have shown little ability or willingness to confront homicides where they exist. As reported last month by USA Today, police are finding and prosecuting homicide suspects at lower and lower rates:

    The national murder clearance rate — the calculation of cases that end with an arrest or identification of a suspect who can’t be apprehended — fell to 59.4 percent in 2016, the lowest since the FBI has tracked the issue.

    The data tells a grim story of thousands of murders in which no one is held accountable, Adcock said.

    “If we don’t address it, the issue is just going to get worse,” said Adcock, who recently started the Mid-South Cold Case Initiative , a nonprofit that aims to provide assistance to departments looking to bolster their cold case units. “The hole we’re in is just going to get deeper and deeper.”

    The issue of murder clearance rates is in the spotlight as Chicago officials struggle to solve gun violence that’s plaguing the city. But the nation’s third-largest city, which only cleared 26 percent of its homicides in 2016, is just one among many big cities struggling to quickly solve gun crimes, according to FBI data and crime experts.

    Part of this problem arises from the fact that police departments often prioritize going after petty drug violations and other minor crimes instead of homicides. Concentrating on drug offenses also bring financial rewards to police departments. Moreover, investigating drug cases offers numerous opportunities for making arrests and bringing revenue into the department via asset forfeiture laws. Given how police personnel are rewarded, drug investigations offer police staff more opportunities for professional advancement than does long hours devoted to homicide investigations that may or may not yield many promising leads.

    On the other hand, it’s entirely possible that a lower “clearance rate” simply means that the police are being careful. It’s possible that, in the past, clearance rates were higher because police were less concerned about finding the right person. Clearance rates in themselves don’t tell us that the police actually arrested the right person.

    In either case, the fact that the police in many major cities are only making arrests for one-quarter of homicides reminds us why private gun ownership is so important for self-defense.


    Ryan McMaken (@ryanmcmaken) is the editor of Mises Wire and The Austrian. Send him your article submissions, but read article guidelines first. Ryan has degrees in economics and political science from the University of Colorado, and was the economist for the Colorado Division of Housing from 2009 to 2014. He is the author of Commie Cowboys: The Bourgeoisie and the Nation-State in the Western Genre.


    It Took 22 Years to Get to This Point

    Gold has been the right asset with which to save your funds in this millennium that began 23 years ago.

    Free Exclusive Report
    The inevitable Breakout – The two w’s

      Related Articles


      Join the conversation!

      It’s 100% free and your personal information will never be sold or shared online.


      1. I live in a state that has the most obnoxious gun laws in all of America, Hawaii.
        We have a low crime rate. We also have very few Black people.
        Nobody wants to examine that, because it would involve a truth.
        Democrats destroyed a race purely for political gain.

        • rellik

          Your 100% correct. Those murders are generally clustered in their communities. The greatest cause of death for a white male 16-27 is a motorcycle accident. For a black male in the same age group its murder perpetrated by another black male. I haven’t seen a map app for sale but if it had the black neighborhoods linked into GPS traveling would be safer. If you have to detour off of the interstate it would be nice to know where Zambia is.

        • Yep, niggas = crime. No doubt.

          • Watch any local news TV channel evening news. Half the broadcast is blacks terrorizing the city! I have a black neighbor (rich!) and one time I asked him why he moved into a white neighborhood. He said to get away from black people! He didn’t want his family to be shot down in the gunfights that routinely happen in his parent’s neighborhood!

      2. Rellik, I’m never giving up my guns nor anything else I have. They can all bite me.

      3. Mine won’t be taken until there is a smoking pile of shells by it.

      4. When talking to young adults, who lean liberal by nature, ask them, “I know you dislike guns. If you owned a firearm and had a scary criminal come in your home and threaten your life, would you use it?” That starts the conversation. Make it practical. There are lots of young guys working late nights or night shift (3rd shift) and they are not home to protect their pretty wives and babies. Why? t,They have seniority. Ask him how she will protect herself since he is not there? Or ask a nurse who works late at comes home at midnight if she would feel safer if she had a firearm?

        Make it practical and personal and you will win them over. Few young people are won over by ideologues ranting.

        If they are worried about kids getting into them, then that tells you they are considering it. Those fast opening five button safes are cheap and can be mounted in hidden places and there is no way a kid is going to know the combination. There is a one in five factorial chances or 5x4x3x2x1 =120 combinations but with many you can press multiple buttons simultaneously therefore thousands of combinations.

        These are the most common things they ask. If they start asking what caliber and manufacturer and model you recommend, they are 80% of the way to buying one.

        This simple issue will flip a liberal to a moderate…at least.

        What young adults want is a kind mentor who will give them sound advice but not meddle. They all want to learn target practice but are a little timid as they think you will say no. Now, don’t sell them a gun in case they get in trouble with it.

        Here is what a simplex lock gunsafe looks like. It’s old tech. By all means shop around and acquire one locally. You might find a used one. I doubt most can build their own for as a cheap a price. A millwright might build his own.

        They typically have two boltholes predrilled so they can be mounted. They can be cleverly hidden on a shelf or in a closet or under a bed. Anything can be defeated by a criminal as you can take a crowbar to one, but as they’re relatively small and easily hidden, yet secure, then you can store valuables inside.

      6. We have these sweet-mannered, pinkish, kewpie-eyed, thumbsucking, indoor people, who experience nature at the Christmas tree lot and petting zoo. If you’re physically coordinated and “brave”, they think you work there.

        These more-feckless, Elmer Fudd tier conservatives usually ask where all the guns went.

        Holder’s sons ask where they all came from.

        ‘Homicides Down’ story still appears on the same page as ‘Civil War Alert’.

      Commenting Policy:

      Some comments on this web site are automatically moderated through our Spam protection systems. Please be patient if your comment isn’t immediately available. We’re not trying to censor you, the system just wants to make sure you’re not a robot posting random spam.

      This website thrives because of its community. While we support lively debates and understand that people get excited, frustrated or angry at times, we ask that the conversation remain civil. Racism, to include any religious affiliation, will not be tolerated on this site, including the disparagement of people in the comments section.