Does the economy move in predictable waves, cycles or patterns? There are many economists that believe that it does, and if their projections are correct, the rest of this decade is going to be pure hell for the United States. Many mainstream economists want nothing to do with economic cycle theorists, but it should be noted that economic cycle theories have enabled some analysts to correctly predict the timing of recessions, stock market peaks and stock market crashes over the past couple of decades. Of course none of the theories discussed below is perfect, but it is very interesting to note that all of them seem to indicate that the U.S. economy is about to enter a major downturn. So will the period of 2015 to 2020 turn out to be pure hell for the United States? We will just have to wait and see.
One of the most prominent economic cycle theories is known as “the Kondratieff wave”. It was developed by a Russian economist named Nikolai Kondratiev, and as Wikipedia has noted, his economic theories got him into so much trouble with the Russian government that he was eventually executed because of them…
The Soviet economist Nikolai Kondratiev (also written Kondratieff) was the first to bring these observations to international attention in his book The Major Economic Cycles (1925) alongside other works written in the same decade. Two Dutch economists, Jacob van Gelderen and Samuel de Wolff, had previously argued for the existence of 50 to 60 year cycles in 1913. However, the work of de Wolff and van Gelderen has only recently been translated from Dutch to reach a wider audience.
Kondratiev’s ideas were not supported by the Soviet government. Subsequently he was sent to the gulag and was executed in 1938.
In 1939, Joseph Schumpeter suggested naming the cycles “Kondratieff waves” in his honor.
In recent years, there has been a resurgence of interest in the Kondratieff wave. The following is an excerpt from an article by Christopher Quigley that discussed how this theory works…
Kondratiev’s analysis described how international capitalism had gone through many such “great depressions” and as such were a normal part of the international mercantile credit system. The long term business cycles that he identified through meticulous research are now called “Kondratieff” cycles or “K” waves.
The K wave is a 60 year cycle (+/- a year or so) with internal phases that are sometimes characterized as seasons: spring, summer, autumn and winter:
- Spring phase: a new factor of production, good economic times, rising inflation
- Summer: hubristic ‘peak’ war followed by societal doubts and double digit inflation
- Autumn: the financial fix of inflation leads to a credit boom which creates a false plateau of prosperity that ends in a speculative bubble
- Winter: excess capacity worked off by massive debt repudiation, commodity deflation & economic depression. A ‘trough’ war breaks psychology of doom.
Increasingly economic academia has come to realize the brilliant insight of Nikolai Kondratiev and accordingly there have been many reports, articles, theses and books written on the subject of this “cyclical” phenomenon. An influential essay, written by Professor W. Thompson of Indiana University, has indicated that K waves have influenced world technological development since the 900’s. His thesis states that “modern” economic development commenced in 930AD in the Sung province of China and he propounds that since this date there have been 18 K waves lasting on average 60 years.
So what does the Kondratieff wave theory suggest is coming next for us?
Well, according to work done by Professor W. Thompson of Indiana University, we are heading into an economic depression that should lastuntil about the year 2020…
Based on Professor Thompson’s analysis long K cycles have nearly a thousand years of supporting evidence. If we accept the fact that most winters in K cycles last 20 years (as outlined in the chart above) this would indicate that we are about halfway through the Kondratieff winter that commenced in the year 2000. Thus in all probability we will be moving from a “recession” to a “depression” phase in the cycle about the year 2013 and it should last until approximately 2017-2020.
But of course the Kondratieff wave is far from the only economic cycle theory that indicates that we are heading for an economic depression.
The economic cycle theories of author Harry Dent also predict that we are on the verge of massive economic problems. He mainly focuses on demographics, and the fact that our population is rapidly getting older is a major issue for him. The following is an excerpt from a Business Insider article that summarizes the major points that Dent makes in his new book…
- Young people cause inflation because they “cost everything and produce nothing.” But young people eventually “begin to pay off when they enter the workforce and become productive new workers (supply) and higher-spending consumers (demand).”
- Unfortunately, the U.S. reached its demographic “peak spending” from 2003-2007 and is headed for the “demographic cliff.” Germany, England, Switzerland are all headed there too. Then China will be the first emerging market to fall off the cliff, albeit in a few decades. The world is getting older.
- The U.S. stock market will crash. “Our best long-term and intermediate cycles suggest another slowdown and stock crash accelerating between very early 2014 and early 2015, and possibly lasting well into 2015 or even 2016. The worst economic trends due to demographics will hit between 2014 and 2019. The U.S. economy is likely to suffer a minor or major crash by early 2015 and another between late 2017 and late 2019 or early 2020 at the latest.”
- “The everyday consumer never came out of the last recession.” The rich are the ones feeling great and spending money, as asset prices (not wages) are aided by monetary stimulus.
- The U.S. and Europe are headed in the same direction as Japan, a country still in a “coma economy precisely because it never let its debt bubble deleverage,” Dent argues. “The only way we will not follow in Japan’s footsteps is if the Federal Reserve stops printing new money.”
- “The reality is stark, when dyers start to outweigh buyers, the market changes.” It all comes down to an aging population, Dent writes. “Fewer spenders, borrowers, and investors will be around to participate in the next boom.”
- The U.S. has a crazy amount of debt and “economists and politicians have acted like we can just wave a magic wand of endless monetary injections and bailouts and get over what they see as a short-term crisis.” But the problem, Dent says, is long-term and structural — demographics.
- Businesses can “dominate the years to come” by focusing on cash and cash flow, being “lean and mean,” deferring major capital expenditures, selling nonstrategic real estate, and firing weak employees now.
- The big four challenges in the years ahead will be 1) private and public debt 2) health care and retirement entitlements 3) authoritarian governance around the globe and 4) environmental pollution that threatens the global economy.
According to Dent, “You need to prepare for that crisis, which will occur between 2014 and 2023, with the worst likely starting in 2014 and continuing off and on into late 2019.”
So just like the Kondratieff wave, Dent’s work indicates that we are going to experience a major economic crisis by the end of this decade.
Another economic cycle theory that people are paying more attention to these days is the relationship between sun spot cycles and the stock market. It turns out that market peaks often line up very closely with peaks in sun spot activity. This is a theory that was first popularized by an English economist named William Stanley Jevons.
Sun spot activity appears to have peaked in early 2014 and is projected to decline for the rest of the decade. If historical trends hold up, that is a very troubling sign for the stock market.
And of course there are many, many other economic cycle theories that seem to indicate that trouble is ahead for the United States as well. The following is a summary of some of them from an article by GE Christenson and Taki Tsaklanos…
Charles Nenner Research (source)
Stocks should peak in mid-2013 and fall until about 2020. Similarly, bonds should peak in the summer of 2013 and fall thereafter for 20 years. He bases his conclusions entirely on cycle research. He expects the Dow to fall to around 5,000 by 2018 – 2020.Kress Cycles (Clif Droke) (source)
The major 120 year cycle plus all minor cycles trend down into late 2014. The stock market should decline hard into late 2014.Elliott Wave (Robert Prechter) (source)
He believes that the stock market has peaked and has entered a generational bear-market. He anticipates a crash low in the market around 2016 – 2017.Market Energy Waves (source)
He sees a 36 year cycle in stock markets that is peaking in mid-2013 and will cycle down for 2013 – 2016. “… the controlling energy wave is scheduled to flip back to negative on July 19 of this year.” Equity markets should drop 25 – 50%.Armstrong Economics (source)
His economic confidence model projects a peak in confidence in August 2013, a bottom in September 2014, and another peak in October 2015. The decline into January 2020 should be severe. He expects a world-wide crash and contraction in economies from 2015 – 2020.Cycles per Charles Hugh Smith (source)
He discusses four long-term cycles that bottom in the 2010 – 2020 period. They are: Credit expansion/contraction cycle, Price inflation/wage cycle, Generational cycle, and Peak oil extraction cycle.
So does history repeat itself?
Well, it should be disconcerting to a lot of people that 2014 is turning out to be eerily similar to 2007. But we never learned the lessons that we should have learned from the last major economic crisis, and most Americans are way too apathetic to notice that we are making many of the very same mistakes all over again.
And in recent months there have been a whole host of indications that the next major economic downturn is just around the corner. For example, just this week we learned that manufacturing job openings have declined for four months in a row. For many more indicators like this, please see my previous article entitled “17 Facts To Show To Anyone That Believes That The U.S. Economy Is Just Fine“.
Let’s hope that all of the economic cycle theories discussed above are wrong this time, but we would be quite foolish to ignore their warnings.
Everything indicates that a great economic storm is rapidly approaching, and we should use this time of relative calm to get prepared while we still can.
Hang on, it will be a heck of a ride, one way or another….
Epp and all,
Hold on to your seats, for sure!
Laeagle:
I’m going to hold on to my AR. and my 1911.
A.S.M.S.
Sgt.
Orlando MERS patient still has fever
22 hospital workers asked to stay home
“About 15 other workers at Dr. Phillips Hospital, as well as five workers at Orlando Regional Medical Center where the Saudi resident also visited, have been asked to stay home from work for two weeks until they are cleared of having the virus”
http://www.clickorlando.com/news/orlando-mers-patient-still-has-fever/25953878
Two Orlando health workers ill after exposure to MERS patient
“Two health workers at a hospital in Orlando, Florida, who were exposed to a patient with Middle East Respiratory Syndrome have begun showing flu-like symptoms, and one of the two has been hospitalized.”
http://news.yahoo.com/two-orlando-health-workers-ill-exposure-mers-patient-154355055.html;_ylt=AwrBJR_RUHJTNBAAF1jQtDMD
As I recall, someone around here (who was pretty sentient about the gold bottom) has been calling for SHTF in 2015 for a few years now. Who was that masked man?
It’s in the archives Your Momma! 🙂
Folks, ten dollar bills in number ten cans, some silver, and gold if you can afford it, will be your economic salvation. Keep prepping.
The Lone Ranger?
: o)
Some arrogant ass. Just like all the other doom predictors, if you say it enough times, you’ll eventually be right. Our whole world is on the precipice, and a slight nudge from one of a hundred directions could send the whole thing crashing down.
BBSuck: “Our whole world is on the precipice, and a slight nudge from one of a hundred directions could send the whole thing crashing down.”
“Some arrogant ass. Just like all the other doom predictors, if you say it enough times, you’ll eventually be right.”
So you call someone an arrogant ass, then you say the exact same thing…
PKLL
KY, as usual, you are off-topic again.
So? It’s a boring topic. Who cares about “K waves”? All I need to know is there is less money in my pocket than there was 10 yrs ago, and it ain’t getting better any time soon…
Ive got more money in my pocket than ten years ago. however it hasn’t as much purchasing power. Prices rise and the quanities in the package are getting smaller.
Old Guy, yep.
I’ve seen the year 2016 mentioned frequently as the year to beware (economically), but no one ever says why.
Does anyone here know why?
As far as economic “patterns” go, I think they’d be predictable if governments were consistent in their attempts to control their economies.
But the Hussein Obama debacle has to be considered an economic “black swan”. No one could have seen this coming even ten years ago.
Surely the world’s foremost economy – changing from capitalism to socialism – has to affect the predictability of the pattern.
Grafique
The are cycles within cycles within cycles at the micro and macro-cosmic levels that can be displayed in 3, 4 and more dimensions. Economic data reflect mass human decisions in the aggregate which can be analyzed statistically to predict the future without reference to so-called fundamentals.
It seems like predetermination or fate but not exactly.
There are always outliers, black swans, and “fat tails” in the statistical distributions.
After some decades of experience and reflection on the predictive power of cycles I have come to believe the individual can step outside the tide of the mass consciousness and create his or her reality – all the while of course, paying attention to the words of the Bard:
“There is a tide in the affairs of men.
Which, taken at the flood, leads on to fortune;
Omitted, all the voyage of their life
Is bound in shallows and in miseries.
On such a full sea are we now afloat,
And we must take the current when it serves,
Or lose our ventures.”
Bottom Line – Be aware of the tide, surf the big
rollers onto the beach and keep prepping.
Got water – check.
Got food – check.
Got ordnance -check.
Got shelter?
cdnDOTshopifyDOTcom/s/files/1/0281/6710/files/Swiss_Shelter_Standards.html?1826
2016, Well Grafigue to repeat a quote “The Republic can survive a Barack Obama, who is, after all, merely a fool. It is less likely to survive a multitude of fools such as those who made him President” Well Grafique that multitude of fools will still be around in 2016, don’t know if that answers your question but I’m sure it’s one of the reasons to beware of 2016, Hillary. Trekker Out. Freemen Own Guns, Slaves Don’t!
Grafique: 2016 is mentioned because it is a Presidential election year. Typically an economic cycle is ending after eight years in office and you have two new charlatans pushing their version of voodoo economics to the electorate.
Historically, the first year of a new President’s term is a recession year (2017) because a new President is organizing his administration and implementing new social and economic policies. (Think hope and change.) These policy changes begin to bite in the second year, gain momentum in the third year, and should have the economy humming along by re-election. That’s the plan anyway.
That has been the norm in the past, as markets were free to follow their natural business cycle with only a nudge from the FED, but with all of the government intervention since 2000, those natural business cycles are toast so its anyone’s guess.
While my sense is that markets may mitigate a crash by declining instead, and limping along until midterm elections, anything could happen given the state of the state, and the state of the world; and a crash could manifest before the end of August.
My magic eightball is broken! Is that a sign of TEOTWAWKI? 🙂
The American dream
becoming an American
Nightmare?
Please General Custer,
I don’t wanna go!!
Do ya remember way back in 08 thru 2010 by 2013 we were going to be toast?
The PIGGS were going to fall over pulling us over with them? The USD was going to be worthless? There was going to be martial law in the streets. Gas was going to be $7.00 a gallon? Food was going to be out of reach by common people?
Who the hell moved the friggen goalpost? AGAIN,!
At least once a day we get some expert prognosticator issuing a report of impending DOOM! He’s an expert alright, at what I’m not quite sure of, possibly a expert gin wizard.
I think these expert canard provocations are as reliable as earthquake predictions, kind of nobody notices if you miss but everybody notices if you’re right just once.
Yea keep that ring in your nose and keep your eye on that carrot out front!
I have a record player, but all my records are broken
I have a CD player, but all my CDs are broken
MP3 player…awe hell, you all get the picture!
I believe something else more wicked this way comes!
…dogs and cats living together…
There is no Miley only Zuul…
Sgt,
Me too, along with some other choice items in the same category! I visited the “6 ways in, 12 ways out” site and was totally impressed with what they’ve done there. Folks, start checking it out if you have not done so already and start training. Time is short and have some fun in the process. It is always good to hear from you Sarge.
How can we increase demand for American-made products? Doing that one thing will lessen the impact of the cycle.
@ Anonymous –
“How can we increase demand for American-made products?”
What American made products are you referring to???? The PTB have “outsourced” almost all manufacturing/production operations overseas to the enrichment of ONLY the very richest 1% in our country.
There isn’t any longer a system in our country whereby the older members of a thriving manufacturing community pass the skills and technological know-how on to younger and newer members. Soon, there will be very few left with any serious job skills or trades to teach.
Bye, bye Ms. American Pie!
I think that was the point.
Raise tariffs, make it cheaper and better to do business here. Yeah, everyone will pay more, but most of the money will stay in the USA.
Of course, the USA will be called “racist” for doing that, but wouldn’t we really be better off?
Buy Made in America, buy from Mom and Pop stores, buy American or Canadian grown food. You will pay a little more but it keeps most of the money in America. Shop at Farmers Markets during the season and can your own food. Every little bit will help some American family.
One thing I worry about is, how long will my home canned food last? I really haven’t found that answer. Does anyone really know?
Shoot an email to Tess at http://readynutrition.com/ . She’s the author of the Prepper’s Cookbook and this is covered extensively in her book. But I think this is a great question and I am sure she’ll have a detailed answer for you and will likely put it online for others as well.
We’ve consumed our home-canned foods (everything from fruit mixes to jellies and beef soup) up to 12 months out. Most of it should last up to two years, but I have this phobia of botulism so i stick to 12 months or less just to be sure 🙂
I think the key here is food rotation… As you can new stuff, be sure to consume the old stuff.
Also, keep in mind that storage location is important.. you don’t want your food sitting in direct sunlight or in a room with extreme temperature changes (around 60 degree is the optimum storage temp, but you can go as high as 70-75, but the warmer it is the lower your safe storage time frame).. You also want to avoid extreme humid environments or placing your canned foods in the vicinity (even 10 feet away in some cases) of chemicals like pool Chlorine because it can corrode the metal lids.
so yeah, short answer: 12 months or less is what I prefer for canned non-dry goods (rice, beans, etc.).
Some “farmer’s markets” buy their produce from the large distributers, just like the big grocery stores (the guy and gal with a roadside stand probably didn’t grow the produce themselves). I’ve heard that over 50% of “organic” produce sold in the USA comes from 5 farms in Cali. Hardly old McDonald.
You guys aren’t from farm country, are you??
I canned tomatoes, tomato juice, and green beans and had most of them for 15 years.
My last green beans were eaten the summer of 2012.
Canned date on label?? 1992. Added bacon grease, salt, and tasted like fresh picked.
Listen to your grannies, boys.
Cannabis…made in America…tourists from other countrys will spend money on other things too
AMMO is the only item left on Walmart’s shelves still made in America. AMMO= aka: The Great Equalizer!!! Buy a lot, and buy it often. Better than GOLD come SHTF!!!
The shit’s definitely going to hit the fan. Stack phyzz silver like there’s no tomorrow.
But also keep an eye on gold and silver mining stocks. When the equities are languishing and falling off the cliff and there’s blood in the streets, some stocks are going to be flying high. And that’s where there’s money to be made.
The mining sector is undervalued by at 75% to 90% just as silver is at it’s most undervalued in what some would say all time history.
The money will flood out of equities and bonds and will begin to stuff the commodities mining sector big time.
Supply and demand, folks. And phyzz supply is dwindling due to the manipulated paper Crimex keeping phyzz spot prices of silver and gold under the average cost of production.
The rebound in phyzz and mining sector stocks from these all-time lows will be epic.
The bottom may not even be in yet, but they’re so dirt cheap (pun intended) that there’s really not much downside risk and no sense in trying to time a bottom at this point.
Buy solid miners who have lotsa cash, good management, and who own a lot of their own stocks…that shows they’re serious and invested and many are just waiting for things to turn around. They’ve gone dormant during this downturn in the mining sector, but when the crackup boom occurs in equities the rocket is going to leave the launch pad for miners and which will then cause phyzz to explode in prices as the criminal paper market collapses.
Be quick, be nimble, and ride the bull.
Just don’t get greedy…sell when you know the top is still up there waiting to be reached. When everyone is buying in that’s when you sell.
Then use all that shitty fiat you made to buy REAL money, silver and gold, and ammo, and guns, and food, etc. etc. etc. Or/and a real nice chunk of land!
Whowuddathunkit, Aint that the truth, when wall-mart open their doors it was based on American made. now that they have put every mom & pop out of Business, its nothing but low end junk. I might spent $100. a yr in there. And thats American made products, I wont support china. and for the people that work there I’m sorry..
Unfortunately, culture in the United States has changed SO MUCH since the depression in the 1930’s. The great majority are dependent on the government and have forgotten how to make, fix, build or grow things.
It will be a rude awakening for many.
Heading to Montana for a vacation and look around. Heading out tomorrow and taking 90 West. Saturday will be in the Kalispell area for one night and going to Chuck Baldwins church on Sunday. Then will be on the Yaak river for two weeks. There are two guys on here that I am to go fishing / hiking with and maybe mushroom hunting if they are still available to find and pick.
Would love to meet others from here if anyone is interested. Young 40’s with 4 small children (7 and under) and one due in August.
We would love to be able to relocate to the area, but finding the right employment will be key. With my job I travel and can live wherever….but with current client /customer having most of their fleet sites in the Midwest states, Montana would be a long trek for jobs. I am a health and safety professional working for a large worldwide contractor. I am currently in the plant services (nuclear power) sector, but have a lot of experience in industrial and manufacturing outside of nuclear power in addition to hazardous waste / chemical / oil spill remediation work as well. Would love to be able to bust into the O&G or pipe line fields.
I thought it would be cool to meet some people from here who live there and are familiar with the area.
I had hoped to meet Brandon Smith and Mr Rawles, but Brandon hasn’t answered email and Mr Rawles is heading out of state for the time I will be in the area.
Anyway, two guys are wanting to meet, hangout and do some stuff, I was just wondering if anyone else would be interested?
Thanks
BJ
More gloom and doom BS. How is all the gold working out for the gold bugs? S&P crossed 1900 today. I know that there is no way the S&P should be 800 let alone 1900 but things are being managed to delay the pain. As long as the QE is going on then things will continue to soar on nothing. Might as well make the most of the ride.
No doubt.
Author Harry Dent forgot that young people begin to “pay off” as soon as they are
declared as dependents on their parents’ tax forms.
Started in 2008. No need to remind everyone that one day we all die. As the SHTF window gets expended every 6 month, the Mother %$##s are making lots of money stealing from us and only leave us with fear.
Did you ever notice? Tomorrow never comes. Trekker Out.
Pray, prep and may we find inner peace and strength to deal with the challenging times ahead.
The Happiness Project
Make your personal life one that nourishes your spirit. Make a conscious choice to keep the negativity out and invite the joy in. Let your daily choices be your personal anti-depressants.
http://www.nutritionalanarchy.com/2014/05/12/the-happiness-project/
Free beer tomorrow!
Tomorrow is yesterday, in retrospect. TODAY is where the action is.
Pure hell in 2015 to 2020?
Tell this to the poor Guys & Gals that have been out of a job and can’t get one over the last several years.
If it gets worse who in the hell is it going to effect? Not the leaches and zombies. They will more that likely get more and the poor folks on SS that deserve it won’t get a damn thing.
I hope this is what happens!!!!
No work No taxes, No taxes no assistance.
Just maybe this is a good thing. ONLY IF IT EFFECTS THE ZOMBIES AND LEACHES.
We know that the SWHTF soon so let us get it over with.
KEEP PREPPING AND PRAYING!
A.S.M.S.
Sgt.
We’re not going to make it to 2020. We’ll be lucky to make it to 2016 and that is if obama doesn’t declare martial law between now and the 2014 election. Either way I’m ready, let’s get the show on the road.
Sgt. Dale,
Recently, you had mentioned you were looking for land for a retreat. If you have not found anything yet, try looking in the area between Lexington and Maysville, Kentucky. This is northern Kentucky and is rural.
I was born in Maysville and have a ton of family in that area. Beautiful country.
I’ve already figured out that my husband’s disability will cease to exist. So, we’ve been prepping as best we can, downsizing, and preparing. God help us all!
So I take it things are going to get worse ?
DA Y:
More than likely we will get HELLORY for Prez! Obullshit then HELLORY, The U.S. will be nothing but a large pile of POOOP! YEP it will get worse!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
A.S.M.S.
Sgt.
Sgt Dale
If that happens we are totally screwed. The one person who would be worse than the HNIC would be that crazy bitch. Glad I live far from the big $hitty’s thats for sure.
DA Y:
What drives me nuts is that dizzy bitch looks a little like my EX.
If the BIC (bitch in charge) is elected I don’t think there will be an USA in 2017 or 18.
Now there might be just a very small step up would be Jeb, but he would be the FART and not the Sh*T, but he would be still be a bad STINK!
Sgt.
Sgt. Dale
I am in 100% agreement.
You are preaching to the choir.
were going to get her,, its been pre ordained ..it was agreed upon with Obama, then her..because she was supposed to get it when Obama got in, but the Clintons let him have the begining of the end, and she is to come along and “Finish” the job.
back room deals..i hate to say it, but my gut tells me were screwed..
unless something totally unravels it, or the Clintons got lied to..that would be my only out
If the end of America is the goal then it is just as likely that a Republican will be elected. Like most on here I find corruption in both parties, but if the goal is to destroy everything wholesome and moral then I believe the left will want the economy to fully collapse under the control of the party that still has some semblance of morality within its base.
This will allow the progressives to paint competition as unfair and unjust, they must kill the idea of individualism and freedom first.
The progressives will only allow a collapse (false flag) when they’ve created the fall guy/ scapegoat.
Sitting republicans are just as bad as the sitting democrats. Can see any thing good on the horizon.
What a choice, Sgt Dale. “Would you rather staple your tongue to Hellory’s hairy armpit, or eat a steamin’ bowl of Southern fried cat shit?”
Cuz’ that’s the same kind of choice as having to pick one of them two.
I’ll take the cat shit, at least I have some Idea where its been
“Southern Fried Cat shit”
Have to remember that one.
I’ve always said that with a little four, butter and spices, you can eat just about anything….but I think “southern fried cat shit” stretches that idea a little too far.
You can find me in the booth, in the back, in the corner, in the dark…..
Turn around……I’m behind you.
Did everyone forget when Flip Wilson dressed up as Geraldine????
Flip
We have been eating sh$t for years, Just give me another bowl.
Sgt.
What kind of cat?
I believe that this president will be the last this country has.
I am curious AZ Prepper as to why you think this ?
THINK
I think Obama once in office was threatened with, that he needs to go along, to get along, with the “NWO Game Plan,” if he wants to survive his presidency. Because for the life of me, how can someone flip from from a community organizer to Hitlers SS Ghosts in just a few years terrorizing the planet in such a way, with agenda’s like the Obama’s Killer Drone Program? Does the power and arrogance of the presidency taint someone behavior so dramatically and so quick? Enjoying your Hopey~Changey Folks?
It was all a part of the the Illuminati plan. Obumer is a puppet as will the next person in the office will be.
Seems to me that Obama is driving the bus. He has help but he is calling the shots. Since he has no resistance due to Boner and the media he can do whatever he pleases.
Why is it that in this country, with the best public education system available for free to every single child for 16 years, we continue to have millions, and growing, of people reaching adulthood with no discernible skills or mastery of knowledge that permits them to support themselves by earning a living in a needed area of work?
Have we had it too good for too long? Has it been so long since the Depression that everyone has lost the wisdom to value education?
If what is coming is true as these economists predict, then having skills and the ability to reason, to problem-solve, to think logically and rationally, to behave as a thinking civilized human being, will spell the difference between survival and perishing.
I just don’t understand why parents and “parents” still turn their nose up at free education to the extent that we see all over the country. It’s bad and it’s getting worse, if that’s possible.
Those of us who have the abilities just can’t continue to carry these people and provide for their needs. There simply aren’t enough of us and there are too many of them. So what happens next?
To try to predict this or that scenario is folly. No one really knows how this will play out. Life is unpredictable.
It seems to me that the first step toward surviving this downturn is to get Obama impeached as quickly as possible. We don’t need the additional trouble of dealing with a malicious Communist regime in addition to a possibly tremendous economic crisis as well.
Right now it seems that it’s shaping up as every man for himself. That spells chaos.
I hate to get into politics, but the very worst thing this country could do during these coming years would be to put Hillary in the White House. There have been downright scary things said about her and her supposed tendency to refuse to tolerate dissent, criticism, or disloyalty. What gives? What country does she think this is? If she wants to reign as a monarch over a submissive population existing, in her eyes, only to serve and obey her, then she would be well advised to find some island and set up her kingdom there.
Isn’t there some way that we can get back to the society we were before the hippie influence began in the 70’s? When standards mattered? When reputation mattered? When a person’s good word and good name was as good as gold?
Don’t know, but we at least have to try.
“Isn’t there some way that we can get back to the society we were before the hippie influence began in the 70′s? When standards mattered? When reputation mattered? When a person’s good word and good name was as good as gold?”
Sure there is
Problem is
a lot of very bad – evil – wicked people
need to *** first
Actually, it was the sixties. I was there.
It’s 16 years of indoctrination, not education!
The stupid taxpayer keeps confusing the two, to the detriment of pupil cohort after pupil cohort, each dumbed down slightly more than the previous one.
If you don’t believe me get hold of an online copy of a text “Ray’s arithmetic” – used extensively prior to WW1. Take a look at the 8th grade questions, and remember that this was when most people left formal schooling back in the day to go and start an apprenticeship, or join the general workforce.
The difference between what’s asked of today’s students after the best part of a century of concerted effort by the elite is just STARK. Not only do the questions require a proper understanding of mathematical principles, they also require the child to think critically and to problem solve in a methodical, logical manner. I won’t even get started on what passes for literacy nowadays!
It was doing this simple experiment that persuaded me to take the plunge and homeschool.
Prior to that as a lone parent I felt there were all kinds of barriers in my way. The upheavals and lifestyle changes needed to make homeschool work, just had to happen if my conscience were to remain clear as regards what I feel my duty as a parent to my child to be.
The next generation are gonna have it really tough whichever way you wanna slice it, and being plum stupid is no going to help them survive the changes we all see looming on the horizon. Not everyone can be a brain surgeon, but there’s no excuse for not having basic life skills like how to balance a cheque book, cook a simple meal, or as mentioned on the previous thread – change a bicycle tyre!
I have no idea what life will be like in 30 years time but I’m willing to bet many very expensively obtained college degrees will prove to be utterly useless in helping today’s young people survive.
“I have no idea what life will be like in 30 years time but I’m willing to bet many very expensively obtained college degrees will prove to be utterly useless in helping today’s young people survive.”
You will not need 30 years
It is already true right now
College since the Vietnam war has become a expense in $$$$$$ liberal indoctrination ground for our young people.
We have let the enemy teach our young.
Every time the GI bill tuition benefit was raised the pay to go diploma mills National, Univ. of Phoenix etc. raised tuition to match it. Why the govt. did not put a stop to it is criminal.
A great book to read on the history of our public education is The NEA: Trojan horse in American Education….I think it’s by John Whitehead…this dumbing down is deliberate, folks, and has been going on covertly since the 1930’s and overtly since the 1960’s. It’s no accident, because a population that cannot think for itself is easier to control. Think Hitlers propaganda machine….same principles, and probably out of the same book….
I am not worried. This country will not survive until 2023 and I am not sure it will survive until 2016 at this rate.
FBI caught planting bugs in patriot laptops for SHTF WROL BLM
you tube /watch?v=oo8j32fSL94
http://www.activistpost.com/2014/05/multiple-officers-shot-during-no-knock.html
maybe they shouldnt be doing home invasions?
awwww..
keep it up, and that thin blue line will be dust. some of us shoot back when scared out of our minds, and some of us protect our property and families with every last drop of our soul
enter at your own peril
just do it the right way and stop being ass holes!
VRF.
I agree with you 100%.
Sgt.
the story hasent cleared mod yet…but thanks for having my 6 on this Dale
None of these “cop” posts are ever a dig on you ,, ok?
im just trying to show that there is an ever increasing risk when we are living in a full on police state
VRF:
The truth is the truth!
I know that there a A Holes out there. I have worked with them.
I’m happy to cover your 6 you are a Patriot, Please cover mine.
Sgt.
You got it Boss
Just had this exact conversation with a young local cop. He thinks I’m one of those crazy Constitutionalist guys. Oh boy!
W. i. I.
Please give this young turd a copy of the Constitution for me. Tell him that an Old Sgt. wants him to read it.
Tell him if he doesn’t believe it or understand it to turn in his badge.
Sgt.
I thought LEOs had to shout “Police” or something to identify themselves before breaking into a private residence? If they had a search warrant, why were they breaking in? Story doesn’t make sense.
They like the adrenalin rush of smashing in doors. Usually, it’s for non-violent offenders or people who are asleep at 3am. They could knock like civilized people, but they are too afraid somebody might flush some pot or something down the toilet, denying them another charge or two. That’s the gist of why they don’t knock for simple arrest/search warrants.
What I want to know is, what was the search warrant FOR? Was it drugs, fraud or for guns? I could imagine some preppers defending themselves, ending up like this. I want to know what the hell they were allegedly looking for at that time of early morning. The profile as presented, does not fit a “drug house”, so, I need more details, since they didn’t give any.
I am so tired. Nothing works anymore (at least not for long). My kid just graduated college and there are no jobs (of course, she isn’t looking too hard either). I work about 12-15 hours a day supporting those who will not work as well as those who cannot work. Ya know….if they nuke us, I’m hoping to be at ground zero. Let somebody else pick up the pieces for a change….. just so tired.
man do I feel ya on that..I drag my carcass out of bed every morning at 5am and dont roll into the homestead until 6 pm
and than another shift of mine starts at home
Im wore the F out! and going more and more broke each day
You need to consider relocation. Maybe tx or somewhere away from the left coast, NYC, or Chicago. Of course I am just making an invalid assumption, but for your stability and sanity start looking at moving. Moving is difficult and has many psychological and economic challenges. But it sounds as if you need to do this for long term stability.
it dont matter where you go..this governmental stupidity is infiltrating every corner of this country
you can run,, but you cant hide
Same here buddy, up at 0400 home at 1730, cook, wash, clean. Pay for everyone else; this is no fun. Think I’ll get sick and go on welfare.
http://iacknowledge.net/cops-raid-family-party-pepper-spray-children-taser-grandma-for-playing-music-too-loud/
dam WTF is up in Texas?
VFR-Houston is in Texas but it has all the problems of a big city in any state. Including out of control law enforcers. On the bright side a deputy who shot a rancher’s cow dog when he came to the ranch to take a theft report was FIRED. Not out on administrative leave-Fired!
preaching to the choir i see
I posted about this
the dog etc..
I also know all about where Houston is, thanks much
gotta get up much ealier to catch up with me 🙂
WTF = What the Fuck , not where the fuck 😉
Power hungary cops….Oh do I have some surprises.
get yours today $200
http://www.cnet.com/news/urme-anti-surveillance-mask-lets-you-pass-as-someone-else/
just to let you all know, since media isn’t good at reporting..
the 2nd MERS case in the US (Orlando)- the 2 people treating the patient are sick. that’s 3 in Florida, so far…
I think the theories are nonsense. Sure, there are business cycles but when the government stays out of it, those cycles are minor. Once Reagan cut taxes and government regulations there was a boom that went through the rest of the 1980s.
The Obama administration is bankrupting the country and the Federal Reserve is destroying the dollar. We’re definitely not only in a Great Depression but the economy continues to shrink by as much as 9% per year.
Look up Millerite from the mid 1800’s and then draw your own conclusions of these doom predictions.
Japan has been kicking the can down the road for about 20 years longer than we have.
It will be pure hell because that’s when the full impact of BHO’s policies will hit us.
It’s when the full impact of all the moochers will hit us.
It’s when the full impact of all the rules and regulations they have imposed upon us will hit us.
It’s when the full impact of all the cronyism will hit us.
It’s when those of us who actually work and pay taxes will finally be fed up and walk away from the burden.
The majority of American people are not worthy of the freedom they have been given and it will soon be taken. The American Revolution was a waste of time, most of the descendents don’t care about freedom and don’t even want it.
Idiocracy.
Mr. Blutarsky,
It’s sad, but about 25% of the people I walk past on the streets downtown are misshapen homunculi who appear to have escaped from an insane asylum. Some of them are actually in hospital scrubs, and they relive themselves on the street without even bothering to try and hide it.
Most of those probably ARE insane, and they have no earthly idea of what to do with their freedom, besides pee on the sidewalk.
“relieve”, not “relive”.
>Mr.B< Your comments here over the years have been profound and on the mark. Look forward to more of them.
Your comment reminds me of a story and comments here in the past regarding a "Tipping Point"(TP) which pushes everything over the edge. You will not know for certain the TP before it actually happens. "Plan & Prepare", it will all come crashing down.
{MM}
This administration is out to prove Nikolai Kondratiev Theory wrong, they want a permanent depression. My hopes are that everyone of these’s Career Politicians get the boot, and non Career politicians replace them. Hell my 15yr Neighbor boy with common sense could do better.
Fuck their NWO Policies, bring are work back home, or tax them into Bolivia till they do, AND COLLECT IT, same goes for the bail out money. If their too big to fail then let them prove it, with out are money. Fuck their Climate disturbance Ponzi scam..
Standing by in PA..
It is rather easy to get/become rather negative about the current economic mess that we’ve allowed our scumbag politicians to infect our economy with. Yes, it IS our fault, we elected these pieces of human debris into public office and short of armed rebellion(which I am NOT advocating at all), the only way to get them out, is to fire them all from our voting booths. We must have mandatory term limits for all elected offices, on the Federal, State, county, municipal levels. Nobody gets a lifetime retirement either for serving. NOBODY.Boehner,Reid, Pelosi, even Newt Gingrich all get lifetime retirement for their stints as majority leaders of their respective houses of Congress/Senate. Why? Because they are evil people who subvert the Republic.
It’s time to throw ALL of the bums out of office, and I mean all of them.If you are too lazy or apathetic to get out and vote your conscience, you ARE the freaking biggest part of this economic mess we are in. This article shows the economic theory that has unfortunately been a real predictor of what can come our way.Merely “accepting” the inevitable crash rather than trying to fix what is so obviously broken right now is asinine. We deserve much better than that, and as a people in this Republic, we ARE better than that. Yes we can fix this mess, but only if we hold the illegitimi who keep voting for these idiotic policies responsible and accountable to us. They DO in fact work for us, I’ve had enough of their contempt for we, the “little” people. It’s time for all of us to step up, educate our friends, family, acquaintances and demand that they step up and vote, or, we get slaughtered like the sheeple those political bastards think we are.
I don’t dispute that thing’s are going to crap….but what’s so special about 2020? Is that when the turnaround begins? Sure it is. And who are these whiz kids that are going to turn things around? I don’t see them. And why would they want to turn things around? There’s a lot of people invested in dispair, poverty, and dependency. Until that crowd is marginalized, we will continue on a downward slide.
David,
Yeah, lots of people are making a living off of others’ misery. Drug and alcohol peddlers, police, Big Pharma, psychologists, divorce lawyers, politicians, bill collectors, credit card companies, religious cults, all the blow-hards on talk radio and the yapping Yankees on TV, prostitutes, used car salesmen, social workers, “life coaches”, bankers, drug rehab counselors, titty dancers, “pain clinics”, prison guards, day traders, and Obama.
The trouble is, if you sideline all of the above, the only people left to effect the turn-around will be 17 pizza chefs, a turnip farmer, and five rodeo clowns.
You can’t eat gold, but since I’m prepped up on food, ammo etc, I’d rather go into a Depression/collapse with gold and silver than without them.
In an emergency, how many cans of beans can you carry with you when sneaking across the boarder?
http://www.viewzone.com/collateralx.html
Your birth certificate is only a legal copy and IT IS A BANK NOTE!!!
Of course it’s a copy. You don’t expect any office to give you their one and only original, do you?
My original handwritten birth certificate is in the register of deeds office in the county where I was born. And there are no “serial numbers” on it. It is bound in a book for the year I was born, and there are page numbers stamped in the corner, starting at 1 in each volume. My name is not in all caps. It is handwritten normally. The more recent birth certificates have most of the information typed, but contain the original pen and ink signature of the doctor. The names are still not all caps.
This is in NC. Maybe things are different in Louisiana. I have seen birth certificates in VA, KY, and TN, and they are basically the same as in NC.
When you go get a certified copy, for example to get your first drivers license, the register of deeds types on a blank printed form. She types it however she takes a notion at the time, either mixed caps or maybe all caps. I’ve never seen one in all caps. Also, there are no serial numbers. The only numbers are the date and the book and page number from the book containing the original that she copies from.
I just checked my copy of my birth certificate, which was obtained in 1975. My name is in normal upper and lowercase. There are no serial numbers. And the form itself was printed by a local print shop. I guess some counties have enough money to throw away on fancy expensive forms from the American Banknote Company.
This seems to come up every few months and is totally bogus. It sounds like a good conspiracy theory, but upon investigation, you find that there’s absolutely nothing to it.
By the way, I’ve been doing genealogy for over 40 years, and I’ve seen an awful lot of birth certificates.
http://thecommonsenseshow.com/2014/05/11/america-sold-out-the-most-heinous-crime-ever-committed-against-the-american-people/
We’re going to see the collapse of the dollar and, most likely, the deaths of 90% of Americans. That’s all outside the economic theories that were presented.
I would add the collapse of currency will not be limited to the dollar, this will be the end of all fiat currencies; and the dying will not be limited to just Americans but will be worldwide, and if it turns nuclear or biological might end up with the extinction of the human race. These idiots are playing with fire, but all of this was preordained the moment we started turning the energy in fossile fuels into teeming billions of humans, and stealing the wealth of generations unborn to live like kings today.
“The Under Ground Empire: Where Crime and Governments Embrace,” by James Mills, 1986.
Outsourcing and the destruction of small-medium sized businesses through egregious taxing and laws puts more people on the unemployment line, further dumbs down segments of the population because of fewer opportunities, and promotes further government debt and dependent citizens.
Then you add the fact that thinking, common sense, reasoning and initiative are rarely taught in the schools or homes resulting in even more living on the backs of hard working people and national debt.
Don’t get me started on how degraded leadership character and ethics play a role in what is transpiring right before our eyes, yea the greedy and power hungry.
Seems like what someone would do if they want to take down a country.
Yes prepare, not only for survival but for the post-collapse.
“Its the economy stupid.”
We have had this idea implanted in our minds over and over again since the 70’s.
I have this to say about ‘the economy.’ The prevailing economic system practiced over the entire world today is based on sin. A sin called ‘usury.’ Usury is how money is created out of nothing and then applying interest to it. The money to pay this interest does not exist, it cannot exist because the money that is printed is not money but is instead an instrument of debt and therefor carries its own interest. Therefor the debt increases continuously ad infinitum.
This preoccupation with the economy is tantamount to a love of money. And we all know what that means.
Will the economy collapse? Of course it will.
Confucius said “A man who can say ‘enough is enough, will be assured to have enough.” I am a poor man, live on my SSI and you know that is a pittance. Yet I am content and have plenty. My only fear is for the people who have more than I yet want even more. They will be lost if they don’t awaken soon.
As far as investments go, the only viable investment left to us is to prepare. Exchange that fiat currency for hard goods while you still can.
God bless you.
ECCL,
I couldn’t quote it from memory, but you made me think of the following quote from C. S. Lewis’ “Mere Christianity”:
“There is one bit of advice given to us by the ancient heathen Greeks, and by the Jews in the Old Testament, and by the great Christian teachers of the Middle Ages, which the modern economic system has completely disobeyed. All these people told us not to lend money at interest: and lending money at interest—what we call investment—is the basis of our whole system. Now it may not absolutely follow that we are wrong. Some people say that when Moses and Aristotle and the Christians agreed in forbidding interest (or “usury” as they called it), they could not foresee the joint stock company, and were only thinking of the private moneylender, and that, therefore, we need not bother about what they said.
That is a question I cannot decide on. I am not an economist and I simply do not know whether the investment system is responsible for the state we are in or not. This is where we want the Christian economist. But I should not have been honest if I had not told you that three great civilisations had agreed (or so it seems at first sight) in condemning the very thing on which we have based our whole life.
Hunter, have a look at the link below. It is an E-book that will show that the concept of usury is older than the civilizations you referenced.
http://www.bamboo-delight.com/download/Sumerian_Swindle_v1.pdf
The heavy hand of manipulation has changed the game to the point that not many if any models such as these would work the same as years past. So many have reached for a handfull of dry sand, and they all hold on tight, yet the tighter they hold the dry sand the more sand is lost. It is causing a dust storm that will choke us all. If any wave theory fits I would be surprized. We have gone past the waves into the dry dunes, and here we choke on dust…
If these models are based on economic health then the time scale could be somewhat inaccurate since we know stock markets have little to do with economic activity.
Are these economic models including open-ended Quantitative Easing and other “extraordinary” tools available to the Federal Reserve? I have already underestimated the desperation of the Fed Reserve to intervene in the stock markets.
There is no doubt in my mind that a day of reckoning is approaching when not even the seemingly invincible Fed Reserve can inflate it’s way of trouble. Then things will get very interesting indeed.
“developed by a Russian economist named Nikolai Kondratiev, and as Wikipedia has noted, his economic theories got him into so much trouble with the Russian government that he was eventually executed because of them”
That piqued my curiousity, so I researched it.
Wiki says “Kondratiev’s ideas were not supported by the Soviet government. Subsequently he was sent to the gulag and was executed in 1938.”
While his agricultural vs industrial economic aspirations were unpopular with Stalin, it’s noted that his political affiliation is what led to his death sentencing.
http://www.paulmcdonnold.com/fusion3.htm
” in 1930 faced a trumped-up charge of being involved with an illegal political party” ..other sources say he was a leader in the “Peasants Labour Party”
However, little info can be found on this party, and some dispute its existence.
Nonetheless, there may have been a bit more to his sentencing than his economic theories.
The collapse is coming from all sides. I don’t think we even have to wait that long. Being healthy is KEY! I threw my back out last week and tried to muddle through. No dice. There were times I couldn’t walk. I got to thinking if shtf while my back was out I’d be fucked. I may have to get an MRI if the steroids the doc gave don’t work. I HATE using PTO and missing work. I’m bored as hell and feel worthless not doing too much. It’s already been a late start to outside work as this spring has been shitty thus far.
Off topic but important…Operation American Spring is just days away…May 16th… http://www.oas2014.com or http://www.patiotsforamerica.ning.com There is an excellent interview with Colohel Harry Riley, the organizer, at : http://www.beforeitsnews.com/obama/2014/05/obamas-last-days-in-office-operation-american-springs-colonel-harry-riley-join (has a star after join)..if this does not take you directly to it, just go to http://www.beforeitsnews.com and look at the May 6th “edition”… All 535 members of Congress have received packets with the list of grievances, articles of impeachment, etc… I have not seen a lot of publicity about this event, but it deserves our spreading the word… I highly recommend you listen to this interview… As far as and economic collapse… As Ron Paul would recommend..get back to sound money (the best money..that is a “store of value”), honest banking and end the Fed. As Dr. Edwin Vieira would say, quit using “debt” as money…debt is a liability…money should be an asset.. Back to OAS…another website that plans to “live stream” it is http://www.overpassesforamerica.com Hope Mac will do an article,prior,on it…as Colonel Riley suggests…if you cannot go to Wash DC, get on the phone to your congress people…thursday and friday… I just had a funny thought…if the crowd is big enough, someone should hold up a sign(s) that says…”Can You Hear Me Now?”
On my last post, made an error in spelling… http://www.patriotsforamerica.ning.com
I do not think the banks did a good job parting with the money that was printed by the fed. It did not trickle down. I think this will cause much pain for the poor. Bankers do not care about the little man. Time the government took over and abolish the fed.
I am going to make an ocean of money when it all crashes.
2015-2020…..all I will do is LMFAOOOO!!……..Gee haven’t I Bern saying for years that this game will go on for a long time .
And come 2020 they will have another projected date ….this is becoming so ridiculous that it’s ridiculous
To paraphrase that great economist, Jeff Dunham: Janet Yellen is gonna’ get on her Economic Cycle and run your ass over.
If you guys and girls could hand pick a leader for our country, who would you choose?
Warren Buffet. He would trim the fat and turn a profit! 🙂
It is by design: 2015 was always the target year, so expect lots of rapid change in the months before 2015. After 2015, that’s the big reboot and the switch gets thrown on the New World Order. It can’t be stopped at this point and you would be best advised to find a way to go along to get along or end up blacklisted and in a database.
The population is too divided and fractured to be able to form a mass movement to resist this, so stop wasting your time and money. It’s done.
what we now have is the New Normal. This economy today is as good as it gets. Tomorrow will be a little worse. By and large there will be more decline than uplift. How long the kickcanistan economics can keep propping up the collapsing economy is a mystery to me. All I know is too many taking parasites and too few making producers is not sustainable. It cant go on forever?
Are these the same ‘economists’ that completely MISSED the 2007-2008 bubble and subsequent market crash? Are these the same miscreants that tell us every farking day that the economy is getting better, that unemployment is nearly back to normal, that printing more money to go further in debt is the only way out of our debt problem? Sorry, Michael. Here’s a 100% Vote of No Confidence in your economists. They suck. They have been wrong MUCH MORE than they have been right. And since they have absolutely NOTHING on the line when they make their ‘predictions’ it’s hard to take them seriously.