Gambling Sites Are Betting On Trump’s Impeachment

by | Nov 7, 2019 | Forecasting, Headline News | 5 comments

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    Gambling sites have already been betting that President Donald Trump will be impeached.

    “Look, I can’t get into specific volumes,” said Joe Lee, the head of Trump betting at Paddy Power Betfair, “but I can tell you that the impeachment market is probably in the top three in terms of volume that we’re seeing among the Trump propositions.” According to Business Insider, as it stands, Paddy Power’s users put the odds of impeachment at around 20%. They believe there’s an 8% chance Trump will resign, and an 81% chance the president will actually complete his first term. 

    “We opened up impeachment markets pretty much straight away once Trump got elected,” Paddy Power’s Lee said. Those markets, long dormant, have been particularly volatile over the past two months. Will Jennings, who is the head of public engagement at PredictIt, has seen a similar uptick in impeachment betting.  “This is one of our more liquid and high-interest markets on the site,” Jennings said.

    PredictIt’s users have the odds of Trump’s impeachment and they’ve thought of every possible outcome. According to users:

    *This data was sourced from Business Insider. 

    Those four statistics alone are said to be able to help determine exactly how the market perceives the risks of impeachment for the Trump presidency.

    This all changes rapidly too.  Over the past week, the implied probability of impeachment in 2019 fell by 4 percentage points, while the implied probability of impeachment within the first term rose a point. This indicates that the market’s perception of the timeline of impeachment may be shifting.

    While this is not the last word in the Trump impeachment saga, it can give us a “feel” for how the average person expecting things to play out.  It seems that the average person thinks there is a higher probability of Trump being impeached than not.


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      1. The odds of Trump being impeached and removed from office= Zero chance. What’s a few bucks thrown on a long shot of 10 zillion to 1, that he will be impeached.

      2. Loyalists, on some websites, are now calling for police statism and nationalization of the internet — forever failing to learn the lesson about the bad kid, who ruins it for the rest of the class.

        Since when do they know how to profile and give out privileges, accordingly?


      3. Liberal polls show Trump impeached, they even include illegal aliens in those polls.

        Trump has a rally and packs 10 to 15 thousand people in, who are all likely voters.

        Liz Warren, or porno Joe have an event and draw 75 people, many attendees can’t even legally vote.

        The reality that is Trump will win by a landslide and both parties know it.

        If the house impeachs Trump for a manufactured process crime, he will wear it like a badge of honor, it will likely boost his position in 2020.

        If the senate republicans go all in for the deep state and convict on a process crime, well then we know, we the people are the enemy of a rogue state.

        • With the super job the polls and media did last time I know we are in good hands.

      4. UPDATE. Wednesday, 11/13/2019. The QUID-PRO-QUO arrangement presented by Joe Biden (admitted on a video) during the Obama Administration caused the current President to urge the justifiable legal pursuit of wrongdoers in the Berisma case.

        Look to Demonrats to attempt more confusion. The Constitution requires “HIGH CRIMES & MISDEMEANORS” to rise to the level of impeachment. You failed today Shiff. This is certainly another WITCHHUNT by folks that hate our country.

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