The UCLA Anderson Forecast announced Wednesday that the United States economy is at a “very real risk” of falling into a recession in the year 2020. “A year ago we were looking forward to a synchronized global expansion; today we are starting a synchronized slowdown,” wrote David Shulman, a senior economist at the forecast group.
Warnings of a recession began not long after the last recession (dubbed the Great Recession) was declared over. Many thought that the economy hadn’t actually recovered and that the problem was easy money policies of lenders and a much too low interest rate. But others have been touting the strength of the economy as an American feat of greatness for the past few years, without much evidence other than the stock market bubble to back it up. But now, one of the most watched forecasts has declared the risk for a recession is very real.
A forecast released Wednesday by economists at UCLA Anderson School of Management said: “The jolt from the very expansionary fiscal policies of the Trump administration will soon exhaust itself and there is a very real risk of a recession in late 2020.” The forecast has predicted that the GDP (Gross Domestic Product) will drop to 1.7% in 2019 and “a near-recession” level pace of 1.1 percent in 2020, according to a report by CNBC.
“The current expansion is getting long in the tooth,” writes UCLA economist Edward Leamer in his essay in the report. “We are in the 38th quarter of the expansion and only one of the previous ten expansions has lived so long, and it perished in the 40th quarter.”
“A year ago we were looking forward to a synchronized global expansion; today we are starting a synchronized slowdown,” wrote David Shulman, a senior economist at the UCLA Anderson Forecast. “The U.S. economy is part and parcel with the global slowdown, an eventuality we have been forecasting for over a year.”
Despite the grim 2020 outlook, the forecast sees the national economy staging “a modest rebound” during 2021. It anticipates the Fed will embark on an easing policy in 2020 and then by mid-2021 the pace of real U.S. economic growth is seen at “around 2 percent.” Even though that’s what caused the bubble to begin with.
DemoRatic Response….Welfare for all
The Gimme Dats will be voting DemoRat for all of the freebies.
Because it worked out so well for Venezuela!!!:-)
So if it happens, buy tobacco and booze stocks. You’ll be fine.
We used to say when times are good, people drink. When times are bad, people drink.
They’re gonna need a cigarette too.
Off topic, on April 6, GPS clocks go into a reset.
Some people are saying do not fly on that day.
Could be something, or nothing.
https://www.tomsguide.com/us/gps-mini-y2k-rsa2019,news-29583.html
Oh noes…not another Y2K. It took 8 years to use the Y2K food preps up.
Would guess most of us can weather a Y2K19 no problem.
So if it happens, buy tobacco and booze stocks. You’ll be fine.
We used to say when times are good, people drink. When times are bad, people drink.
They’re gonna need a cigarette too.
Off topic, on April 6, GPS clocks go into a reset.
Some people are saying do not fly on that day.
Could be something, or nothing.
ht tps://www.tomsguide.com/us/gps-mini-y2k-rsa2019,news-29583.html
The real deal just passed you by! Altria stock drop to $42 with a 7% Div.there was no way that was going to stand it’s now around $52. Sure glad I had all my money tied up in PM’s. Trekker Out
yawn
“It anticipates the Fed will embark on an easing policy in 2020…”
They have to. You can’t taper a Ponzi scheme. The debt must grow or it all collapses. Even the ECB has reversed course and started buying again…after only a few weeks.
Eventually, everything will need a bailout. State and local government pensions, private pensions, corporations and whole countries will need bailed out.
They take turns creating debt and devaluing their currency to keep the currencies somewhat balanced for FX. It’s a scripted dance that will leave the public destitute and living down by the river in a refrigerator box and the bosses owning all the assets. But that’s how it works with a debt/money system. Growth equals growth of debt. No debt growth, the system collapses like in 2008. No bailouts means tanks in the streets.
IMO this continues until the resources to run industrial civilization come up short. Whoever controls the most of these resources will be the last one standing. You can print money but you can’t print resources. The empire realizes this and this is why they are interfering in resource rich countries. Pompeo just gave a talk to the CEOs of the major oilcos and basically said that the State Department will be cooperating with them to weaponize the resource industry to their advantage.
I guess the foreign policy follows that quote “The American way of life is not negotiable”. Was it Rumsfeld that said that?
I welcome a Recession. Inflation is stealing my fixed incomes buying power. I went by the school yesterday as it was letting out. over a hundred vehicles where causing a traffic jam. and they where all newer vehicles. It was parents picking their grade and middle school children up. Us boomers who supposively had it so good. We walked or rode the school bus.And after those parents picked up those kids. they went to the Wal Mart od the fast food joints. Heck many of those kids didn’t need to ride in a car or even walk. If ther was a downgrade the are so fat they could roll!!
OG,
What we need is a depression, where prices decrease.
I have the same fixed income problem as you.
At my location Hawaii island, Hawaii, prices increase
at least 3% per year. Government inflation numbers
are pure bullsh it.
As for school I walked or rode a bike to school.
I hated buses. I used get into fights just to
get kicked off the bus. Pissed my parents off.
They would not or could not give me a ride to/from
school even in bad weather, so I got lots of exercise.
We did walk about 2 miles to the bus stop in grade school. We only had one vehicle and my dad used that for work so no rides other than the bus. If you dickered around and missed the bus, you hid in the field all day so you wouldn’t get a strapping. No cafeteria lunch either. Brown bagged it until old enough to earn some money picking potatoes, catching chickens, or delivering newspapers.
Kids nowadays are “too good” to ride on the bus. That’s for “losers”. Don’t ya know.
Mommy or Daddy get off at 3 pm to provide limo service. Unheard of in my time.
Oh, are we going to get our asses kicked in a real war.
I cant see any viable solution. political or otherwise. It actually will not matter to me if Trump gets a second term or not. At present we are a nation in decline. I do not see and hope of reversing the decline.