Fed Chairman on the Economy: We Don’t Have a Precise Read…

by | Jun 22, 2011 | Headline News | 71 comments

Do you LOVE America?


    The masters of the economic universe met today with Chairman Bernanke of the Federal Reserve following up with his now regularly scheduled press conference.

    Bernanke admitted that things aren’t as rosy as the Fed et. al. had predicted, but that things would get better:

    As indicated in today’s policy statement, the economic recovery appears to be proceeding at a moderate pace, though somewhat more slowly than the committee had expected, and some recent labor market indicators have also been weaker than expected.

    As has been the case generally over the last year, the numbers for our supposed recovery have been less than stellar and less than the experts expected.

    Mr. Bernanke did provide his view on why things have not turned around at the expected pace. Here’s his reasoning:

    The reduced pace of the recovery partly reflects factors that are likely to be temporary. In particular, consumers’purchasing power has been damped by higher food and energy prices, and the aftermath of the tragicearthquake and tsunami in Japan has been associated with disruptions in global supply chains, especiallyin the auto sector.

    So, according to Mr. Bernanke, the unemployment situation, along with the contraction in GDP are a result of higher food and energy prices.

    This of course, begs the question: where exactly did those higher food and energy prices come from?

    Short answer: money printing (but you knew that already).

    If these prices are “likely” to be temporary, what will be the driver for the price declines? Since these prices rose as a direct result of QE and the speculation that it made possible, the ending of QE should lead to the opposite effect – price drops.

    In about a week, that will be the case:

    The committee’s planned purchases of $600 billion of longer-term treasury securities will becompleted by the end of this month…

    If food and energy prices for the consumer are supposed to drop because of the “temporary” nature of their recent price increases, then so too will the entire commodities markets. Since the same QE effect responsible for rising commodity prices was also responsible for rising stock prices, we can postulate that equities in general should see price corrections.

    In other words, prepare for stock market declines once QE2 comes to an end and the money stops flowing freely.

    This coming drop in prices (stock market or otherwise), according to Bernanke and the committee, is going to be the driving force that will lead to improvement in GDP and the employment rate:

    In particular, the unemployment rate is projected to edge down over coming months to 8.6 to 8.9 percent in the fourth quarter of this year, and then decline gradually over the subsequent two years to alevel of 7.0 to 7.5 percent in the fourth quarter of 2013, still well above the central tendency of participants’ longer-run unemployment projections

    In short, we expect the unemployment rate to continue to decline, but the pace of progress remains frustratingly slow.

    Inflation has moved up in recent months, mainly reflecting higher prices for some commodities and imported goods. In addition, prices of motor vehicles have risen notable, as a result of the recent supplychain disruptions.

    However, as the effects of these factors dissipate, the committee anticipates that inflation will subside in coming quarters to levels at or below its mandate-consistent rate, as shown in the figureentitled “PCE Inflation.”

    We can certainly see the possibility of the official unemployment rate drop over coming months and years. This, however, does not mean that people will actually be finding work. As we’ve noted in the past, millions of people will be dropping off of official unemployment roles because they are unable to find meaningful labor. They will no longer be counted. With this logic, we may actually approach the Marx target of 0% unemployment over the long-term.

    The entire price valuation system in America (and most of the world) has been hijacked. Everything from stock markets and housing prices to GDP and the US dollar are a direct result of the artificial manipulations by the Fed.

    Jim Grant provides an insightful explanation:

    I think the difficulty with the Fed, generally, is that it is imposing false values across a range of markets. It has given us a zero percent funds rates, it has through this agency levitated the stock market, it has depressed or helped to depress the value of the dollar exchange rate. It is in the business of imposing false values. My suggestion is that we learn to live in a world of transparently objective values and for that the Fed might just take a little rest.

    Considering how right Ben Bernanke has been up until now, and considering that his entire forecast is based on the idea that prices in food and energy will “likely” go down in the near future, we are expecting continued economic pain going forward.

    Although Mr. Bernanke is a scholar of the Great Depression and uses lots of fancy words most of us can’t understand to explain to us how things are going to be better really, really soon, even he himself admits that they have no idea what is going on right now:

    We do believe that growth is going to pick up going into 2012, but at a somewhat slower pace than we had anticipated in April.

    We don’t have a precise read on why this slower pace of growth is persisting. One way to think about it is that maybe some of the headwinds that have been concerning us, like, you know, weakness in the financial sector, problems in the housing sector, balance sheet and de-leveraging issues. Some of these headwinds may be stronger and more persistent than we thought.

    And I think it’s an appropriate balance to attribute a slowdown partly to these identifiable temporaryfactors, but to acknowledge the possibility that some of the slowdown is due to factors which arelonger-lived and which will be still operative by next year.

    In effect, Mr. Bernanke totally underestimated the effects of Fed intervention on creating the housing bubble and the potential for recession, saying in 2005 and 2006 that it was a “pretty unlikely possibility”:

    Once the bubble popped, he then totally missed how the largest housing bubble in history would impact the broader economy when he suggested to the American public that the sub-prime debacle was contained:

    We now know that QE1, QE2, and everything else they’ve thrown at this crisis has been a huge fail.

    Are we now supposed to believe the powers that be have figured out how to navigate through these so called (hurricane force) headwinds?

    The people in charge of our monetary, economic and fiscal policies have no clue what to do. They have fired all of the bullets they had and nothing is working. Fundamentally, we’re worse off now then we were four years ago.

    Prepare for another widespread financial and economic “emergency.”


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      1. I’m getting the feeling we might not make it till 2012.

        Hope to finish my safe room this week; if you want to do some masonry work but have no skillz google Surface bonded wall or dry stack wall and learn how to quickly build a wall that is stronger and easier than standard masonry. Anyone can do it, and my room is coming along swimmingly.

        • Thanks for the tip… I am in the market for sub terranian safe room development right now…also looking at air purifiers/systems

      2. Apparently there is now a new spending plan by the Dems:
        I predict QE3.

        “Dems call for stimulus in debt deal as CBO offers warnings
        By Erik Wasson – 06/22/11 08:19 PM ET

        Senate Democrats on Wednesday said stimulus measures should be included in a debt-ceiling deal even as a new Congressional Budget Office (CBO) report shows public debt surging to nearly twice the economy’s size by 2035.

        • Agreed… qE3 is coming in one form or another… We need a crisis ASAP and then Ben can crank up the presses publicly again

          • a crisis is coming you can bet on that, if the false flag US govt sponsored attack doesnt happen before the end of summer, we’ll have a natural disaster this fall

          • We need a crisis ASAP so that the reset can take place now, the can can no longer be kicked down the road, the politicians will be taken out of the equation, and we can get through the pain now instead of allowing it to grow and be worse in the future. It is time to bite the bullet and get things over with.

          • Actually, one of Porters guys thinkings Ben will hold off, to show the government how much power he has and how much they need him. He feels disgraced to a degree with how some (rightfully so) are talking about him.

        • Getting to 2035 without a major event is a pipe dream.

          • LOL, getting to 2035 is a pipe dream… period.

        • I had to use Bing to find this file.

      3. My guess would be if you believe this load of “horse hockey” you are either blind as a bat, dumb as a stump, or an Obama supporter.
        The time is now; we are in a major reset (oh and by the way, AT OUR EXPENSE)
        Do you honestly think they give a s**t if you live in a home, eat or live? It’s not them why would they care about you? They’re fat and fluffy, they have theirs, and screw you.
        Just keep voting them back in, in the next election and you will get yours.
        Get ready for a Barter Society. Get your stack of hard assets going , you’re going to need it.
        We are being slow rolled just like what they did in 1929. Only now it’s going to be done slowly, controlled, deceptively right in front of your eyes with your money, 401ks, savings accounts, investments, bonds, securities, anything but hard assets. They have to get to you before you know what’s happening.
        They have no control over anything hard. They have no control over a barter transaction. They can’t tax a barter transaction.
        If you can find somebody old enough to have been through 1929, talk to them and ask question about it and what happened. We are not that far apart here but the samr thing. Good Luck!!

        • I have stopped contribuiting to a 401(k) and have written off the existuing balance as a mistake.

          • Take the money out of your 401K/IRA and buy land with it.

            Check out self-directed IRA’s. (Ours is with Pensco but there are other companies who do them) You can buy land with no tax or early withdrawal penalty this way.

            There are limitations. You can’t “use” the land until you are 65. But if the shtf, who’s watching?

            I think you can also buy other things with self-directed IRA’s (use it to invest in your business, buy rental property & have the rental income going back into a retirement account or buy gold/silver) but personally, I’d use the money to buy land.

            Buy 10-15 acres of rural land within 2 hours of your home. Throw a small trailor on it & voila! You have a 401K shtf Retreat!

            • Just search the internet “Self Directed IRA”. You’ll find out all you need to know.

            • Crap! I just realized that web site is selling something. They might be scammers so just use it for info only.

            • Aw s***, I got rid of my IRS (Freudian slip there I meant IRA), and my selfdirected IRA is Sam Colt, and Ruger.

          • Ben,
            Don’t give up. My humble suggestion would be to borrow against the 401K and plow the $ into PM’s, or check with your employer’s 401K administrator and see if they have a gold/silver ETF (electronic traded fund), a food commodities ETF, or a reverse T-Bond fund (short the T-Bond).

            Just some thoughts. Good luck!

        • Currently there are provisions in the tax code to tax barter items and exchanges. But with no paper trail it is difficult for the B******s to do it.

      4. Hunker down- food & water, guns & ammo, silver & gold–
        build your raised garden beds and get plenty of top soil and fertilizer and a chicken coop with layers and fryers– this is going to be rough and the die off will be quick– just noticed an article highlighting large suicide rate among Japan EQ and tsunami victims. VERY SAD AND DIDN”T HAVWE TO BE THIS WAY IF PEOPLE WERE AWAKE

        • Interesting, I hadn’t connected the dots in Japan and suicide. It makes sense though as people have lost loved ones and stuff, they have no hope. Thanks for point this tragedy out, Zeke.

        • I agree zeke. I have already started with Raised Beds and Rain Harvesting. I also am looking to get a chicken coop this summer and start with 2 hens. When I look around now I see all the people wondering why its so hot and why they are in a hand basket. Seeds will be the way to go and are easier to carry than PMs. Check out where to get them at: http://www.bereadytosurvive.com

          I think I see the fat lady and she is singing very loud!

      5. what I got out of what he said , (and says)
        Is this..

        He has no fucking clue

        He has the ability to step off the track when the train they set in motion comes flying into town, so why should he (or they) care about the little people.

        Stupid is, as Stupid does

      6. I quit my employer and cashed out of my 401K a year ago. Invested all the proceeds in gold and silver. The return on those investments more than covered the U.S. governments theft tax of 30%. My employer eventually asked me if I’d consider coming back to work, which I did. It takes some courage to quit your job to get at your retirement money, but the consequences of not doing so means the eventual destruction of your hard earned savings by the policies of the FED and the theft sponsored by Barack Obama. There is still time to save yourself and your family. I can assure you the the U.S. government will take everything you have so it can survive another day. What happens to you is no concern of theirs’. To the banking and government elites your just another useless eater. Starve the beasts before they starve you and your family.

      7. Very soon this is going to be it people. Prepare you minds and hearts. For many of you will become very poor, left homeless and in despair.
        You will not be able to turn and look away like you once did in the past. Great despair will be everywhere and on everyone faces. Very soon soon you will all witness the greatest depression the world has ever known.
        Your very own family will be the ones in trouble. For some it will be your own mothers and fathers thrown out onto the streets because of their small fixed incomes they cannot survive. Others will be your neighbors and friends who lost their jobs and unemployment has run out. Others sadly will be your very own children, young children scavenging for food through city dump yards.
        Yes things are going to be very bad for the everyday person. Some of you will break down mentally and not be able to survive. Others will turn to illegal trade. Others will turn to drugs. Others will kill themselves or others.
        Prepare does not mean stocking up on food and guns. It means getting your minds and hearts ready for the hell on earth you are about to witness.
        God help everyone.

        • I hear you and its not a pretty picture….I’m gone already from the shores of the New World…we were witness to greatness and the decline…we saw them walk on the moon…and walk away with everything

      8. He probably does have a clue…..look more at his eyes and the quivering lip….both are getting worse every time he gets in public. Ben knows the train is about to come off the tracks.

        • I guess what i ment to say is, He hasnt got a clue how to stop whats been set in motion…

          yes he does know what is coming..I wasnt clear on what I typed

      9. The individuals who have created this economic crisis have no solution but to try and keep the “Titantic” afloat, until they can get squared away before abandoning ship.
        Accumalate food and tangibles for barter/trade. All paper currencies are going to drop in value and eventually become worthless. Check out http://www.backyardchickens.com/raising-chickens-basics and see if a backyard food supply could be a viable prep option. Twelve egg laying hens have become part of mine.
        Gear Up & Good Luck To All

        • Those rabbit and chicken ideas are great,(I have both)but you also need a back up plan, the first hungry mob that comes by your place will have a Bar-B-Q with your animals just like the troops done during the civil war and our troops done going thru Europe.When millions get hungry, not even the night crawlers are going to be safe.
          Everything sounds exciting and even romantic, but when the SHsTF, people are going to see things happening that would make the troops who were on the Bataan March take notice, with over 300 million, nothing will be safe and I don’t care how many bullets a person has.The problem here in America is that not many people have been hungry, not just missed a meal hungry, but go to bed hungry,get up hungry and do that for a few days or even a week.

      10. I accidentally turned to a channel last night that had Obama talking about bringing the troops home. The sight of him makes me sick, but I endured a minute or two of his propaganda with my eyes closed.

        My first thought… the corp does not have enough soldiers here to control the masses when things get really bad so it needs to start bringing them home.


        His poll numbers are so low he needed to announce something drastic before the elections are too close.


        Somebody did something so stupid he needs to deflect attention away from it.


        he is just an idiot and thinks people still believe anything that comes out of his mouth.

        I hope Bernanke and Obama end up in the same underground bunker. Then at least the rest of the people in the bunker can play “Who’s the biggest dumbass”

        • Beloved Leader’s poll numbers show that less than 50% of the population would support his reelection. He needs something much more drastic than bringing 33K troops home from Afghanistan over the period of a year to ‘perk-up’ his numbers.

          Can anyone think of a good false flag terrorist incident here in the US that would help President Obungle’s numbers to rise to the point where he is once again reelectable? Please address your suggestions C/O The White House, District of Criminals.

          • Yahoo actually had an article about extremists in the Northwest.


            According to the SPLC (a real hate group), these groups have arisen because there is a black man in the white house. It can’t have anything to do with the damage the man in the white house has done to the country, it’s only because he’s black. Yeah, right!!!!!

            So I’m looking for some event to happen and be blamed on those folks like ourselves who just want to be left alone.

        • I vote for #2. Low poll numbers.

        • Somebody did stupid: Obama did by keeping Bernake on as Chairman, and the other stupid was Bernake talking and revealing that he has no clue. Good observation, the Bamster was redirecting way from the Federal Reserve presentation. Hope you didn’t puke on yourself or the furniture.

        • Yep….all of the above

        • GC, your’re correct on all four points. I couldn’t watch the videos of oinion head (Bernanke). Your a better person than I for watching Obumbles. Just to let you know, if you don’t already, the unemployment rate for returning troops is hovering around 30%.

        • God’s Creation,
          I couldn’t agree more about Obummer making me sick to watch him. He epitomizes the exact philosophies that have destroyed this country. The ONE thing he could have done, the one thing that he promised us he would do when he was elected was to get our great fighting men out of the shitholes in Iraq and Afganistan and he couldn’t he do THAT right. What a mistake I now realize it’s been to fight for and help Muslims. What a waste of lives and treasure. Never again as far as I’m concerned. Next time: Nuke em and let God sort it out!

      11. Get rid of all welfare (food stamps, free housing, medicaid etc) and then see what the official unemployment number is.

        I’ll bet it’s well over 35%. (of course about half of that 35% doesn’t even want to work since we’ve bred generations of folks on welfare)

        • exactly right, welfare,foodstamps,heap,SSI and other entitlements have replaced soup lines.
          I did not say SS because i do not believe it’s an entitlement when people who paid into it are receiving it.SSI is an entitlement,most of the people collecting it have never paid the Gov a dime.

      12. I guess crisis has been averted once again after Bernanke spoke. Nothing to worry about, we can go back to watching “American Idol”, “So You Think You Can Dance” and “The Real Housewives of New York City”. We can continue to be slaves, worshipping the U.S. dollar and credit cards.

        I still have this feeling that TPTB can keep this going up until around 2020. There is nothing that significant going on in the world right now that is eye popping, jaw dropping, shocking. Yeah there is Fukushima and Fort Calhoun nuke plant crisis, that barely got any attention and it doesn’t even get news coverage. Even situation in Greece and EU is perceived as nothing in the media.

      13. DJ IEA Calls “Urgent” Press Conference In Paris For 1300 GMT (9 AM EST)
        June 23 2011

        Stock Futures Down -90+ @ 9 am EST (-107 @ 9:05 AM EST)
        June 23 2011

        U.S. 2-year yield hit record low after data
        June 23 2011

        Jobs Picture Grows Worse as Weekly Claims Post Jump
        June 23 2011



        Feels like the beginning of ‘Patriots’
        And now the “set up” or conditioning if you will begins with: http://www.haaretz.com/news/diplomacy-defense/nuclear-experts-killed-in-russia-plane-crash-helped-design-iran-facility-1.369226

        • Dow is now down 200 points.

          Census data shows that white babies are now the minority.

          Unemployment claims jumped last week.

          New home sales slipped 2% last month.

          Crime is up – everywhere.

          Yes, the economy is crashing. At least it’s happening slowly (as opposed to an EMP) to give us more time to prepare (as if you can ever be prepared enough).

      14. Obama is bringing home troops to help with the unrest that will take place and to help with Marshall law. BREAKING NEWS….the U.S. is releasing 60 million barrels of oil to help stablize world energy markets. Why now?? oil and gas prices are coming down? i smell bullsh**.

        • crash and burn, exactly right. Why now? The administration didn’t even release from their emergency reserve when oil ran up to $147/barrel in the summer of 2008. But then again the reason given today is to help fight supply disruptions brought on by the ongoing unrest in the Middle East. There is no official mention of the price of a barrel of oil having anything to do with the decision.

          It does smell like something brown with stink lines. Personally I think they know major disruptions are coming and this is a way to preempt it. Only problem is they’re playing their ace in the sleeve so early in the game and once they’ve shot their wad they won’t be able to keep a lid of prices.

        • They need to try and find 60 million working brain cells in D.C.

        • 60 million barrels is about 1/2 day’s world consumption. It’s a drop in the bucket.

      15. Jim Grant says” My suggestion is that we learn to live in a world of transparently objective values and for that the fed might just take a little rest.” It’s taking all that I have not to explode after reading this. Jim Grant, I hope you eat $h^t and die. Why should I or anyone for that matter, have to live in that kind of world. The only rest I like to see the current fed take is where they’re facedown in the dust, unresponsive, with no pulse. Then we can get a new Republic under our current constitution re-established. Also, get the investigations going, gather all those suspected of treason, and if found guilty, hung by the neck in public for all the world to see. Those found guilty of lesser crimes against the American taxpayer, have their land(s) and wealth confiscated, imprisoned and forced to perform hard labor while incarcerated. I’d like to go on but my hands are trembling (seething WASP anger) too much.

        • “Those found guilty of lesser crimes against the American taxpayer, have their land(s) and wealth confiscated, imprisoned and forced to perform hard labor while incarcerated. ”

          Let’s put those FEMA camps to good use…

          • Good idea GC, that way their wives and children can live with them too. When the kids ask,” Mommy why does Daddy break big rocks into little rocks all day long?” Mommie can tell them, “that is Daddy’s punishment for thinking he was above the other people in our country, for being greedy, spitefull, betraying a trust and oath.

        • PO’d Patriot,
          I think you misunderstood James Grants remarks. What he is saying is that the Fed is screwing with all the values in the world — the value of stocks, the value of food and commodities, etc. James Grant wants the values to be transparent (in other words, not manipulated by the Fed) and he wants the Fed to STOP the money printing, which is distorting all the true value of things.

          James Grant is a brilliant economist, but his remarks are little confusing. Give him a second chance.

        • I think this shit goes on way more than we know or hear..
          Its getting rediculous..
          the power that some of these people think they have , and if you dont fold up for them, or you have any question about their athority..look the hell out

        • And my previous post includes nefarious police officers/officials. Possibly going have to build more FEMA camps.

      16. The tarp fiasco in 2008— wasn’t it 800,000,000,000(800 billion)??

        That would have been 16 billion for each state to start businesses to sell chit here instead of buying from foreign countries…hmmmmmm.

        • JJ,
          I think the exact figure was 787 Billion.

      17. Mr. Blutarsky says:
        June 23, 2011 at 8:05 am Get rid of all welfare (food stamps, free housing, medicaid etc) and then see what the official unemployment number is.

        I’ll bet it’s well over 35%. (of course about half of that 35% doesn’t even want to work since we’ve bred generations of folks on welfare)

        In some parts of the country, this may be true—I have a neighbor(person that lives on the same street)that said she was looking here in this rural county for a job—I’ve been there—she will not find work..we are 60s+….
        Ya think maybe that she’s realized that bee-you-tee-ful yard, trip to Cal. and Pa. won’t feed her and pay the heat bill??
        I have been warning for two years—yep–she knows about my stash…all of it….had the nerve to tell me my water can be seen from the road when our garage door is open and I will be killed for it per GB—screw Glenn Beck and his 30 million dollar yearly salary– her info guru…she’d be better listening to me, not GB…

        • I think I would get it out of view too..
          I never understood why somepeople leave their garage doors open..its just an ivite to come back and rob you

      18. Don’t anyone believe that Uncle Ben is incompetent or doesn’t know what he is doing. He knows EXACTLY what he is doing and what he is doing to US.

        The FED has so much historical data on a daily, weekly, monthly, quarterly, and annual basis that they know precisely what will happen with every action they take.

        They know exactly what they are doing and what they are doing to US. THAT is what makes them so dangerous. Kill The Fed!

        Arrest the Gangster Banksters, try them, convict them and give them the punishment reserved for traitors.

      19. Agree Durango They know exactly what they are doing and just blowing smoke at the blind masses,to avert mass panic or should I say prolong . All part of the plan . As the hope and change will be having the mark of Owebama on their hand oops I meant to say Beast

      20. Ploease understand that the economy recovery that helicopter Ben is talking about is the national cashflow. Tax revenues vs government expenditures.

        The little consumer is a non-issue. You are only important to the big picture when you are paying taxes or buying crap on credit.

        I do find it curious that unemployment is one of the causative factors in commodity price inflation. No worries, the pain is only temporary unless it ain’t. Reckon the whole supply/demand curve nonsense was a waste of my time to learn. According to Ben, fewer buyers result in higher prices. Uh-huh. I’ve heard ducks fart underwater and they all sound the same.

      21. Forget everything you know, go to Ron Paul’s website and look at the 257 Foreign Free China Trade Zones, where they will hire only Chinese, use Chinese Military to Guard these Zones and Pay no Tax to the USA. We have been sold out and have no Future. Your Kids are Literally Fucked!

      22. Congress keeping wartime provisions through the Trading with the Enemy Act for a Bankers Holiday Juliard v. Greenman, 110 US 421 i.e. Congress has never enacted any legislation to take United States notes out of circulation.

        There is a distinction between a “debt discharged” and a debt “paid”. When discharged, the debt still exists though divested of it’s charter as a legal obligation during the operation of the discharge, something of the original vitality of the debt continues to exist, which may be transferred, even though the transferee takes it subject to it’s disability incident to the discharge.[Stanek v. White, 172 Minn. 390, 215 N.W. 784]

        If you’d like to own property, you have to purchase it. You have to buy it and pay for it in lawful money. You can’t pay for it in private credit without having an obligation or a residual first lien upon that property by whoever you got the private credit from.

        It’s the law.

      23. Most Americans were shocked when they heard about the sinking of the Titanic. The normalcy bias makes it almost impossible to imagine the system collapse.

        People assume that just because the lights are on today that they will be on tomorrow. When the baby boomers see that their life savings are gone, many will choose to end their lives other will walk around in a daze.

        Many uppity 40-somethings who have been conditioned to believe that their life is only worth what they make, will kill themselves and their families.

        If the dollar collapses, the food stamps benefits will not be able to keep up with rising food cost.

        Simply put, it makes no sense for people in fiscally sound states such as Utah, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Nebraska, Kansas and Vermont to continue paying for a federal government that feeds resources to unconstitutional wars and falling states such as California.

        I’m not talking about Superman’s Doomsday, but when you have millions of highly educated young people facing a bleak future with few economic opportunities, you end up with a new class of criminals.

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