Ray Dalio, a billionaire, and Chinese investor says that the United States and China are “beyond the ability to talk”, which has pushed both sides to the “brink of war”. The two ruling classes are also threatening to drag the rest of the world down with them, Dalio said.
Both sides are at severe risk of crossing each other’s red lines, and diplomacy between them is clearly failing, Dalio wrote in a Thursday memo on LinkedIn, according to a report by Business Insider. “The United States and China are on the brink of war and are beyond the ability to talk,” reads Dalio’s grim message.
Dalio, who runs the biggest foreign hedge fund in China and has 40 years of experience investing in the country, said he wrote down his thoughts after recently meeting with policymakers, Chinese citizens, and China experts from around the world. Dalio fears the conflict will escalate over several immediate flashpoints, such as quarrels over Taiwan, confrontations between American and Chinese aircraft and ships, the war in Ukraine, and threats of economic sanctions.
Washington and Beijing are showing they aren’t able to talk these issues out, he added. Whenever they interact with each other, “discussions about big, important things have become exchanges of accusations that worsen relations rather than help them,” he wrote. While China and the US should both know they need to deconflict, “there is growing belief that the unavoidable trajectory is toward war,” Dalio said.
“The hawkish political influences in the United States will exert more pressure on the relationship over the next 18 months because of the emergence of the 2024 election season,” Dalio wrote. “That will be a very risky period because China and the US are now already on the brink of war.” The US and China, he said, are “like two giants wrestling with each other six inches from the edge of a cliff and threatening to pull others into this dangerous fight.”
Dailio also pointed out that French President Emmanuel Macron has been criticizing Washington for provoking China. Saudi Arabia has also been recently engaging in new deals with China and Russia, and that country has typically been an ally of the U.S.
The US and China, he said, are “like two giants wrestling with each other six inches from the edge of a cliff and threatening to pull others into this dangerous fight. All things considered, I think that the greater provocations will most likely come from the American side, which I worry will cause a tit-for-tat crossing of the line,” Dalio wrote.