Bank of America strategist is warning that we should enjoy 2019 right now, while we still can. A note led by top strategist Michael Hartnett, says investors will have to grapple with the long-running bull market as it limps into 2020 because the “big top is coming down.”
“We are bullish on risk assets in 2019 as bearish investor sentiment and the irrationality of central banks and bond markets allow an ‘overshoot’ in credit and equity prices,” he wrote. “We are bearish on risk assets in 2020 as recession/policy impotence/bond bubble risks induce Big Top in credit and equities.”
“The 2020s are likely to witness a more forceful attempt to create inflation,” he said. “Even the slightest sign of success will lead to dramatic rotation… away from the deflationary winners of the 2010s to the inflationary losers.” But Hartnett says stocks could still rise too.
Bank of America issued a similar ominous warning back in July. Back then, Hartnett and chief economist, Ethan Harris wrote a piece on the law of large numbers, arguing that an ever-expanding list of uncertainties would likely undercut the markets going into year-end. At the time, the main concerns were the trade war, a hawkish Fed, Brexit, Quitaly, and Iran oil sanctions. Bank of America once again warns a similar set of concerns could come to a head and halt the current rally in global equity markets.
BofA economists are becoming concerned that the tariffs are permanent, and that there will be no de-escalation of the trade war. That means higher prices for a majority of goods and services are here to stay at a time when many Americans struggle to make ends meet. According to ZeroHedge, the deadline for avoiding auto tariffs is mid-November. Additionally, there is a steady drift toward some kind of currency war: in the form of either countervailing duties or outright intervention. Countries that benefit from production shifting out of China, including Vietnam and other ASEAN countries, could face at least a serious threat of US tariffs.
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The building projects are for unemployed veterans, now.
Some of the (literal) dumps and recycling, giving makework to ex convicts, retarded, and dwarves, are shutting down.
So far, all of these blighted corporate welfare industries keep going on — just so long as they use conservative interests for their quota cases.
Can a crest in stock prices be associated with a transfusion of wealth, found in the investor relations portion of their corporate website.
It’s not based on consumer demand, afaic.
When the Big Top comes down all that will be standing proudly still will be stacks of PM’s, Silver and Gold. Most everything else printed on paper is Fraud, with just a (wink wink) promise to pay.
In some of Mark Dice’s awkward, social experiments, coins were not even fungible, where the subhumans preferred candy. I have counted, by cross section ~1,050 houses within short, walking distance of me and cannot tell you where I last saw what I would consider to be another man.
PM’s are pegged to an arbitrary price, set by the state market maker. A few cents in the shthole countries, where tinpot dictators resell it, internationally. I defy you to do better than whatever that price is.
Ive been hearing about the collapse worse than 2008 that is certain to happen in the very near future for over decade. and every doom & gloom prediction so far has been false. There are some who might want a collapse to effect the elections. It don’t matter those Dimocraps don’t have anyone who can beat Trump. And just what will Thump do if he no longer has to worry about being reelected? possible endorse more red flag laws? Go along with the 3ew agenda? Trump isn’t any savior. He is simply the lesser evil. I look around at americans they are fat tubs of guts. Most are parasites who live on the government teat. A great culling is needed.
Many guns (only, in the hands of state actors), militarism, and labor camps sound just like Stalin, though. You say culling. They say pogrom.
It will happen when it happens. Are you a child? “How long till we get there?”
Bankers – known by everyone in the financial and investment world as the “stupid people”.
(remember the bail outs?)
So yeah, we should listen to their gibberish.
I have been hearing dire predictions of a global financial meltdown for well over ten years. I am well-prepared for it. I don’t have much time left, so will people just get on with it? Jeez.
I prepped for Y2K, one of the best things I did was sell off most of my tech stocks, they crashed in the weeks following.
There is a time to sell and it’s not now.
Why did I sell stocks then, IT departments across the country had repaired all the Y2K date crap in all their software, the Internet buildout was about done. The only thing left was the layoffs of IT workers who did their jobs well, and the outsourcing of everyone’s jobs to India. Yes, I sold high, a year later I bought low.
When I start hearing about mass layoffs like I did after Y2K, I did sell stocks then as I will now, until then, let it ride and make some profits.
75% of the economy is now running on consumer spending, the only thing that can stop that is layoffs. The low unemployment numbers mean people have money to spend.
I listen to an unnamed liberal financial news station in the shower every morning. Of late they have been running adds for house flipping services. The last time that happened was just before the 2008 crash, it is a sign a financial winter is coming, but it’s not here yet.
In a nut shell is all means be ready to exit, be it personal investments or 401K positions. The maket is nearing a top, that top could be a DOW of 30,000. Watch the news for layoffs. That will be the signal, not TV pundents or the FED, or Peter Schiff.
Stay frosty, stay mentally, and financially prepped.
PTPO ~ If it’s not being too nosy, I would be very interested to learn where you park your money after exiting securities. Hold it in cash, buy gold, purchase real estate (if so, do you favor undeveloped land or apartment buildings or what?), buy bonds (Treasury or corporate?), or something else? I’m always interested in hearing the reasoning process behind the selection of financial safe havens. Any insights would be appreciated!
The “Clown World” guy seems to not understand punctuation. It is very difficult to read his stuff because of excess commas and bad formatting. Try improving in your future posts so that it is easier to comprehend what you are attempting to convey. Thanks, ahead of time.
Bring manufacturing back to this country and we won’t have issues with supplying the needs of this country.