That the US economy is in turmoil and the dollar’s world reserve status is under unprecedented threat is a given.
What’s not clear is where the machinations of government and global banking cartels will lead, and when.
But we know the breaking point is coming.
According to Shadow Stats founder John Williams, who has taken a unique approach to analyzing fundamental economic data well beyond official government statistics, we will soon begin to see the fruits of the monetary and financial games taking place behind the scenes.
Unfortunately, the end result is not going to be recovery. Far from it. As Williams notes in his latest report, what we should expect is continued degradation throughout this year and into 2014, at which point a hyperinflationary environment will take hold.
We’re Beginning to Approach the End Game.
Nothing is normal: not the economy, not the financial system, not the financial markets and not the political system. The financial system still remains in the throes and aftershocks of the 2008 panic and near-systemic collapse, and from the ongoing responses to same by the Federal Reserve and federal government. Further panic is possible and hyperinflation remains inevitable.
Typical of an approaching, major turning point in the domestic- and global-market perceptions, bouts of extreme volatility and instability have been seen with increasing frequency in the financial markets, including equities, currencies and the monetary precious metals (gold and silver). Consensus market expectations on the economy and Federal Reserve policy also have been in increasing flux. The FOMC and Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke have put forth a plan for reducing and eventually ending quantitative easing in the form of QE3. The tapering or cessation of QE3 is contingent upon the U.S. economy performing in line with overly-optimistic economic projections provided by the Fed. Initially, market reaction pummeled stocks, bonds and gold.
Underlying economic reality remains much weaker than Fed projections. As actual economic conditions gain broader recognition, market sentiment should shift quickly towards no imminent end to QE3, and then to expansion of QE3. The markets and the Fed are stuck with underlying economic reality, and, eventually, they will have to recognize same. Business activity remains in continued and deepening trouble, and the Federal Reserve—despite currency-market platitudes to the contrary—is locked into quantitative easing by persistent problems now well beyond its control. Specifically, banking-system solvency and liquidity remain the primary concerns for the Fed, driving the quantitative easing. Economic issues are secondary concerns for the Fed; they are used as political cover for QE3. That cover will continue for as long as the Fed needs it.
At the same time, rapidly deteriorating expectations for domestic political stability reflect widening government scandals, in addition to the dominant global-financial-market concern of there being no viable prospect of those controlling the U.S. government addressing the long-range sovereign-solvency issues of the United States government.
All these factors, in combination, show the end game to be nearing.
The most visible and vulnerable financial element to suffer early in this crisis likely will be the U.S. dollar in the currency markets (all dollar references here are to the U.S. dollar, unless otherwise stated). Heavy dollar selling should evolve into massive dumping of the dollar and dollar-denominated paper assets.
Dollar-based commodity prices, such as oil, should soar, accelerating the pace of domestic inflation. In turn, that circumstance likely will trigger some removal of the U.S. dollar from its present global-reserve-currency status, which would further exacerbate the currency and inflation problems tied to the dollar.
This still-forming great financial tempest has cleared the horizon; its impact on the United States and those living in a dollar-based world will dominate and overtake the continuing economic and systemic-solvency crises of the last eight years. The issues that never were resolved in the 2008 panic and its aftermath are about to be exacerbated. Based on the precedents established in 2008, likely reactions from the government and the Fed would be to throw increasingly worthless money at the intensifying crises. Attempts to save the system all have inflationary implications. A domestic hyperinflationary environment should evolve from something akin to these crises before the end of next year (2014).
Such an environment, as has been previously noted by John Williams, will not just involve increased prices at our grocery stores or gas stations. It will be much more severe than that and have serious implications across our entire system of commerce.
There’s strong evidence that we’re going to see an intensified downturn ahead, but it won’t become a great depression until a hyper-inflation kicks in. That is because hyper-inflation will be very disruptive to the normal flow of commerce and will take you to really low levels of activity that we haven’t seen probably in the history of the Republic.
As the dollar breaks down, you’ll also likely see disruptions in supply chains, including shipments of food to grocery stores. People should consider maintaining stockpiles of basic goods needed for living, much as they would for a natural disaster.
The end result of our current trajectory is inevitable.
The target date according to Williams is somewhere around the end of 2014. This will be just the beginning and it won’t be a short-term event.
If hyperinflation is the end game of this financial crisis, then it’s time to consider what becomes money when the US dollar collapses.
Look first to preparing yourself for an unavoidable disaster. This takes a focused plan that includes the stockpiling of essential goods like food and other supplies to get you through the initial breakdown. Furthermore, if hyperinflation is the end result, then you should be planning for a longer-duration crisis where traditional services and transportation will break down, which means you need to have barterable assets, worthwhile labor skills, precious metals as a mechanism of exchange, a safe location, and a security plan to ensure your safety.
Time is running out. The mathematics of this is clear. The system is wholly unsustainable and we will soon understand what this really means.