This article was originally published by Tess Pennington at ReadyNutrition.com
Tess is the author of the widely popular and highly rated The Prepper’s Blueprint.
We’re ushering in National Preparedness Month with the first in a series of four preparedness guides. This crash course into preparedness will help you plan a strategy, position critical assets and greatly increase your chance of surviving many of the most common emergencies. While the subject of preparedness is an extensive one, we are going to break the basics down as much as we can so that you can stay focused and on track.
Before we start, I want to share my philosophy with you. A disaster of any kind rarely stops with the initial event. The aftermath can spiral, having the capacity to cripple our normal ways of life for a much longer time than we intended. This can last days, into weeks and even longer (depending on the circumstance). Because of this, it’s important to have a well-rounded approach to your preparedness efforts. I wholeheartedly believe in a layering concept when it comes to preparedness. You start at the beginning and slowly add more “layers” on preparedness until your family is fully insulated from the disaster itself. By accumulating items slowly and mindfully, you will stay organized and know that all of your bases are covered. I’ve broken the layers down into three groups.
While there are a lot of subjects in between the highlighted layers, we must keep this prepper truth in mind: How we choose to be prepared for a disaster event is solely our responsibility, and no one else’s.
In this course, the responsibility lies with you. I will provide you links to important articles, suggestions and even checklists to further your research but it is up to you to apply the information to your lifestyle. Let’s get started!
Disasters of all types are an undeniable part of life, and the only thing you can change is the way you react to them. Having supplies in place to weather the storm is a great start, but far from the desired end result. To be prepared, and I mean fully prepared, requires planning, anticipating the worst-case scenario, and training for skill sets you will need while living through the event. You can’t just waltz into your local grocery store, grab some food, batteries, and water and then be done with it. You need to prioritize, plan, and prepare.
Ultimately, the easiest way to begin preparing is to decide what types of disasters you are planning for (weather-related, natural disasters, mass evacuation, economic or personal disasters), and prioritize what your emergency plans will be based on those emergencies. The best way to begin assessing what your needs are is by reading and researching the disaster you are planning to survive.
Ready Nutrition has an immense amount of articles pertaining to specific disasters, so do a search and start your research. Many people start by preparing for the most likely emergency to occur in your area.
Do not limit your emergency planning to natural or economic disasters. Go a step further and plan for personal disasters that also tend to occur without warning (unemployment, divorce, death in the family).
Having a plan in place to determine what steps need to be taken by you and your family members when an emergency arises will ensure that all preparedness needs are covered. Now that your plan is beginning to come to life, it’s important to check and prepare the home. To start, every home should begin their preparedness endeavors with this checklist.
This list will become your Master List of preparedness needs, so keep it in an easy to access location. Your list will also help to navigate you through your preparedness plan. Ask yourself these pertinent questions and realistically answer them. After you determine what disaster you are planning for, sit down and begin to map it out. The way I started was by writing down all the main categories I needed to plan for. Here’s an example.
Short-Term List of Needs for Sheltering in Place for Two-Weeks After a Hurricane
When planning for a disaster follow these beginner protocols:
Many of the items that often disappear as a result of a disaster are items that protect your basic needs. While a popular prepper adage is to prepare with the 3 B’s: beans, bullets, and band-aids, there are more concepts to consider. Therefore, it is best to begin with these fundamental disaster items to meet your basic needs: food, water, clothing and shelter and then add more preparedness layers onto this initial foundation. However, many decide to expand their disaster supplies to encompass a longer duration so that if a delayed emergency response occurs, it has little effect on them. This is why preppers believe in having “back-ups for their back-ups.”
As well, do not forget about preparing items for your pets! They are depending on you to make sure they have everything they need to.
Water
First and foremost, you need a dependable water source following a disaster. Your initial line of defense would be the two week supply of bottled water that is recommended, but because this need is your top priority, it is highly recommended that you get a water filtration system like the Katadyn water filter or a Berkey Filtration System. That said, many believe the suggested amount of water by disaster organizations is grossly underestimated.
If we go by the suggestion from emergency organizations and have 1 gallon per person per day, a family of 5 will need 35 gallons of water per week.
Victims of previous disasters say the suggested water amount stated by disaster organizations is not nearly enough to get through a disaster. Conway Yee’s family went through the aftermath of Hurricane Sandy and were without power or their well water supply for a week. To keep hydrated and clean, “we went through 20 gallons a day” for drinking and washing, he says. That’s 120 gallons of water for the week after the hurricane. With that in mind, you want to consider these alternate solutions to boost your short-term water supply.
With water being one of your most important preps, play it safe and double the amount of water needed. The extra water can be used for other purposes like sanitation, cleaning, etc. As well, because many water sources are questionable following a disaster, water can quickly become scarce, so it is important to remember there are hidden water sources found in the home to fall back to. As well, it is also advisable to have alternate ways to treat your water.
As a precaution, keep a bottle of unscented liquid chlorine bleach with your water supply for cleaning and sanitizing and for disinfecting water.
Food
Once you have your water supply in place, it’s time to begin stockpiling some food for emergencies. The overall goal of having an emergency food pantry is to have a wide array of nutritious foods stored away in order to carry us through an emergency. Start out with a supply of non-perishable food that doesn’t require a lot of cooking time (if any).
Ensure that you have foods suitable towards survival. Foods that have the sustaining energy sources to burn slowly. Finding foods that are high in complex carbs and dietary fiber are far more efficient from a dietary standpoint and will keep you feeling “fuller” longer. This could go a long way if you are planning on rationing your food in an extended emergency. Also, stay away from overly salty or sweet foods. This will only increase your need for water and since your food stores are a precious commodity, you will want to try and avoid these types of foods.
Using a food storage calculator will help you to determine how much food is necessary. It is important to factor in your caloric intake, especially during an emergency. Your activity level could drastically increase in a disaster due to aftermath cleanup and other activities. These are some considerations to keep in mind before purchasing the food items:
Here are some suggested food items to have stored:
Here are 25 must-have foods to put in your pantry.
Canning meals is also an option you should consider. This gives you more control of your dietary requirements, gives you more meal options, helps provide “normal” food during difficult times. One thing I hear a lot from disaster victims is how they wish things would go back to normal. Having some of the family’s favorite foods canned and stored away would do wonders for morale.
As well, I highly recommend storing a variety of heirloom seeds. These can be to grow sprouts for emergency nutrition and for gardens for long-term food sources. You could also plant edible flowers. Not only will they be lovely to look at, but they will provide sustenance when you need it the most. Alternatively, if you can locate food packing plants or warehouses in your city, that may be a good place to allocate additional food reserves if yours runs out. This article can provide information on foraging for weeds.
Find the best deals so you don’t blow your budget
Mentioned earlier is the importance of having a budget for prepping. It’s easy to go crazy wanting preps to get your home ready. But you can do this without blowing your budget. The large volume supermarkets typically have better deals than the smaller stores. Map your shopping route based on local ads from the large supermarkets to save on gas money as well as on shopping time. Even dollar stores carry canned goods and food products for short term/long term food supplies. Look for the best sales and buy as much of the item as your budget will allow. For a more in depth first time shopping list for your prepper, consider adding these items, as well.
You can also pack your own MREs to save money and to ensure your family has foods they will eat. Here are some tips and suggested foods to do this.
On another note, there may come a time when you run out of your food stores and need to go to the store in the aftermath of a disaster. If this occurs, be prepared for regular food staples to be in limited supplies. Foods like bread, milk, and eggs usually are the first items that run out. We saw that during the aftermath of Hurricane Harvey. If you find yourself in this situation, look for alternatives to those foods.
Start with a 3-day food supply and keep prepping
I have found that when starting your preparedness measures, it is best to start at the beginning in order to ensure you have everything you need to build up your preparedness foundation. Start your preparations with a 72-hour kit and then create a vehicle 72-hour kit. Once that is complete, you can begin ensuring your basic needs are met for longer periods or begin targeting other layers of preparedness. This is the foundation of your preparedness supply.
A 3 day or 72-hour kit is small enough that items can be added to a backpack to take with you in the case of a sudden disaster that comes without warning. These preparedness kits should be made for all members of the family that can account for their basic needs for 3 days. Once your 3-day supply is secure, you need to move on to expand disaster supplies to encompass more areas of preparedness.
Consider, for a moment, how drastically your life would change without the continuous flow of energy the grid delivers. What would our lives be like without access to communication channels telling us what is going on? How vulnerable would we feel not knowing what is going on around us? For that matter, how would we get in touch with loved ones to let them know how we are?
Communication during a disaster can be quite troublesome given that the power grid goes down during most natural disasters. Sadly, during these types of disasters, family and loved ones need those communication channels up the most and it can be quite frustrating when they aren’t.
Prepare ahead for this!
According to the CDC, families should develop different methods for communicating during emergency situations and share their plans beforehand with all those who would be worried about their welfare. Options for remaining in contact with family and friends if a disaster strikes include:
Types of Emergency Communication Channels
Cell Phones/Computers
At first glance, there is little potential for these devices when the grid goes down. Without the multitude of servers that are scattered around the globe and the electricity that feeds them, our computers are nothing more than bulky hard drives. Cell phones might still work for a little while since some cell towers have backup batteries and solar panels, but their use might be short lived.
However, don’t be too quick to scoff at the prepping potential of these devices. Computers might still be useful for communicating in some cases. It’s fairly easy to create a local wifi network (aka ad hoc network) between computers that are within range of each other. This would allow people living on the same street or in the same apartment building to talk to each other, provided they can generate their own electricity.
The better solution would be to create a local network for cell phones that isn’t reliant on any infrastructure. Their energy demands are far less than other computers, their range is longer than wifi, and they are of course, mobile. The technology for creating a peer to peer network between cell phones has existed for some time now, but unfortunately, it has yet to be sold to the public. Companies like Terranet have been perfecting it over the past few years, and they estimate that about 30% of cell phones will be capable of making these networks with a simple software change. So right now, cell phones will be pretty much useless when the grid goes down, but that may change before the end of the decade.
Ham Radio
When most preppers think of communications, ham radios usually come to mind, and for good reason. They can communicate to other radios over hundreds of miles, and they may be the only form of very long distance communication when all else fails. Unfortunately, they wouldn’t be very useful for the average person.
They use a lot of electricity, the equipment can be pretty expensive, and only about 700,000 Americans are licensed operators. Still, if even a fraction of them are up and running after a major disaster, they will play a crucial role in the relief effort. Due to their limited numbers and the amount of resources that are required to keep them running, you won’t see them being used for casual conversation, but you will see them used by communities for conducting commerce and coordinating reconstruction efforts.
CB Radio/Walkie Talkie
I suspect that CB Radio’s and Walkie Talkies will be the main form of communication for the average person, and they are the best candidates for filling the gap that cell phones and internet providers would leave behind. If anything, CB radios were our parent’s version of the internet. They were affordable and accessible, you had to learn the lingo to use them, they allowed you to communicate anonymously, and much like the internet, they were used to skirt the law from time to time.
There are millions of CB radios lying around, and many of them are still being used by truckers today, so they will be available to many of the survivors. More importantly, they don’t use too much electricity, they’re more user-friendly than ham radios, and some of them are portable. Depending on the conditions you’re using them in, their range can extend anywhere from 1 to 25 miles.
As for walkie talkies, I don’t have to tell you how useful they could be. Much like the wifi network I spoke of earlier, these will be pretty handy for staying in touch with your neighbors. Together, CB radios and walkie talkies will be most common form communication after a disaster.
Courier
If the grid is down long enough, eventually some enterprising citizens would start to provide courier services. Whether it’s by foot or by bicycle, they will fill an important niche that other items on this list can’t provide, and that is a secure form of communication. If you had to send a message to someone who lives out of the range of your radio or wifi network, and you needed that message to remain a secret, writing that message down and sending someone out to deliver it by hand would be the only way to do it. Wifi just doesn’t have the range, and radios are too easy to listen in on.
So, the power is out. You have all of this wonderful food stored away but no way to cook it. Before you resign yourself to baked beans at room temperature out of the can, consider your options. You may not have a functioning kitchen but you can still do some cooking.
As with all things related to prepping, you should have a backup plan, and a backup plan for your backup plan, and if you can, one more for good measure. Further, having an ample supply of items to use to create fire with will be paramount in an emergency situation. Therefore, keep the following items stocked up in your supplies:
If a fire is not an option for cooking there are several alternatives you can turn to. Here are some popular options for alternative cooking sources
Whichever type of cooking vessel you use, make sure you have an ample supply of fuel to use. Whichever fuel you decide, store an ample supply. For example, if you choose to grill food using a BBQ grill, understand that one large bag of charcoal briquettes will last for about 4 cook outs. If you’re preparing for a 10-day emergency, you will need 10 bags of charcoal. As well, temperatures can affect the amount of fuel you use as well. For instance, low temperatures and the wind can greatly influence the amount of propane you use on camping stoves. It can increase the amount of fuel used by three! My family has an indoor wood burning grill,
In such a case, I like to have multiple ways to cook emergency food. My family has an indoor wood burning grill, we also own a rocket stove and a solar cooker. We have an outdoor grill too but in a dire emergency situation, we want to maintain OPSEC (operational security) and do not want all the neighbors knowing we have food. A fear of many preppers during the beginning stages of a true SHTF event is how our smells, as well as the aromas from foods we prepare, could attract unwanted visitors. Cooking food can be smelled in best conditions up to a half mile or so. Further, those who have gone without food for days on end will have a heightened sense of smell and will use this to their advantage. Keep this in mind when choosing how you will be preparing food.
Tools
The right tools are a valuable commodity when it comes to survival and essential items to have on hand for hunting, digging, cutting, communicating and navigational purposes. A 72-hour bag should have all items necessary to survive for 3 days. Bottom line is your preparedness tools are your life line and without them, you could be ill-equipped in a survival situation.
The ten tools listed below are some of the most important survival tools that should be in your 72-hour bags. Of course, other items can be included, but these essentials are a must-have for every survival pack. Practice using these tools regularly so that you know their capability and their strength.
Read more about essential survival tools here. As well, consider having separate supplies for your vehicle.
Not only will you need the above-listed tools, but you will also need tools if your home has been damaged by a disaster. In the backbreaking early stages of rubble removal, simple hand tools will play a vital role in transporting and removing debris. Acquiring basic hand tools—shovels, axes, and hammers—meet immediate demolition needs and then take on a long-term role once construction resumes. The tools used in the first phase of reconstruction were:
1. Round point and square nose shovels, preferably heavy-duty variety with extra long blade socket.
2. Pick axe
3. Pulaski Axe
4. Rig builder’s hatchet
5. Axe
6. Bow saw
7. 24-oz. framing hammer
8. Sledge hammer
9. Digging bars, preferably both pointed and chisel tip varieties; crow bars.
10. Leather or synthetic work gloves
11. Protective eye wear
12. Hard hats
13. Dust masks
14. Contractor-grade wheel barrows
15. Bolt cutters
16. Large-diameter heavy-duty weatherproof rope; small-diameter light-duty line
17. Rope hoist/pulley, minimum 250-lb. capacity
18. Folding knife
Quite simply, having these tools and equipment on hand will help you operate in a non-technological environment. The bottom line is your preparedness tools are your life line and without them, you could be ill-equipped in a survival situation.
Written Survival Information
In a high-stress situation, it’s easy to forget the basic how-tos of tasks that you don’t perform every day.
Many survival manuals and printouts can easily be downloaded onto a flash drive to be taken along in your bug out bags. Don’t underestimate the value of a spiritual book to boost the morale.
You want books like:
I like to have hard copies of important books on hand at home. If the power is out, you may not be able to access e-books or websites.
Security
The reality is that the vast majority of people have about three days of food and water at home and when a prolonged disaster strikes it upends the stability of the entire system of just-in-time delivery. When those delivery trucks stop delivering, things can be pretty dicey.
Most people strive to make their homes safe and secure. We install motion lights, fence the yard and make windows difficult to open. We have good quality locks on the doors and sometimes burglar alarms, as well. But all it takes is opening the door to the wrong person, or someone throwing a lawn chair through a glass window.
In a disaster situation, these security measures may not be enough. We need only to look at the aftermath of hurricanes and other natural disasters to see that looters are out in full force, taking advantage of the people who have already lost so much. As we’ve said here before, “If you can’t protect it, you don’t own it!” This is a common human response to disasters and most preppers know this which is why they have guns and ammunition with which they will defend their homes and families.
But let’s explore some other ways you can protect your home and belongings. One way is to understand the mind of the criminal. An MSNBC affiliate out of Atlanta recently did just that. They sent letters to 86 people who had gone to prison for burglary and asked them a variety questions about their crimes. Their answers could tell you a lot about how to protect your home from this crime. What they told reporters included the following:
You can read more about that here, but essentially, if you know what to expect, then you can better prepare for it. Remember – prioritize, prepare and plan for what may come.
Preventative measures can be put in place to keep criminals far away from your home. Minimize the threat of a home break in or home invasion by adding layers of security to prevent your home from being a possible hit. Security layers are preventative measures put into place that will advertise to possible intruders to avoid your home altogether.
Having firearms on site will help you reinforce these security measures and continue protecting your home. By training with these weapons, you will be familiarizing yourself with firearms you will definitely see in one way, shape, or form in a SHTF scenario. Learning how to operate these will stimulate you to develop skills and perhaps to purchase one or more in civilian/legal ownership form. There are also plenty of qualified instructors to be found in these ranges, and a high-end range that is worth its salt will provide one for you to familiarize you with the weapon free of charge before you fire it.
The 3 Security Layers for the home
Layer 1: The Outside Layer
Layer 2: The Inside Layer
Layer 3: The Personal Layer
This is the most critical layer.
In many cases, the local officials will be just as confused as you and may give mixed messages on how serious the situation is. In their defense, the information they are getting is constantly changing and informing the public is difficult at best. Knowing this will help you ensure your preparedness plans are solid.
In an even longer-term situation, more plans for defense would need to be made, with perimeters, night watches, and an organized plan.
Once you move past the basics of prepping, the best thing for your plan is to learn a new skill or two. Remember, in an emergency situation there won’t be a repair shop to take your tools to or a grocery store to buy more food from. When the SHTF (Stuff Hits The Fan) you’ll be left to rely on the skills you have, and with no Internet available to look up information on, you might be stuck.
Because many people are not adequately trained to handle the disaster situations in which they find themselves in, having the proper skills and training will provide an individual with a well-diversified knowledge base to help them survive during and after a disaster.
It is important to emphasize that some skills are more important than others. The first I would recommend are those skill sets that will enhance your off-grid environment.
Basically, any class that fits your basic survival needs, take it! As well, don’t neglect the primitive skills one can learn too. Many of these skills will carry you into longer-term preparedness measures, so the more you know the better.
One area of skills we all need to focus our attention on is self-defense. Self-defense is a crucial skill that we all should know, and it takes time to develop these skills. No doubt there have been times where you may have found yourself in a situation where you looked around and didn’t feel comfortable, and in some cases, the situation had the potential to quickly become dangerous. It’s important to have situational awareness and be aware of your surroundings at all times. If you do not feel comfortable, don’t feel bad about getting out of the situation altogether. As well, trust your gut. When your intuition is making your “Spidey senses” go off, it’s time to get out of there.
In many cases, predators watch their potential victims before they strike. In a study regarding how predators selected their victims, pedestrians were videotaped walking down a street and had incarcerated convicts view them. Within seven seconds of viewing the pedestrians, the convicts had selected their targets. Selections were not based on gender, size, age or race, but rather on the body language exhibited. The convicts identified the following body language cues used as their basis for victim selection:
Posture: People that walked with shoulders slouched or slumped were selected as victims as opposed to those who walked with their chin up.
Gaze: Those avoiding eye contact were chosen as victims because of the perception that they were preoccupied. Making eye contact naturally communicates confidence.
Stride: People who walked with a stride that was too long or too short, or those who shuffled or dragged their feet, were selected over those who had a smooth and natural gait.
Rate: Those who walked slowly with no apparent purpose, and those who walked fast as if they were uncomfortable, were selected over those who walked naturally and deliberately.
Fluidity: Those who demonstrated awkwardness in their movements were chosen over those who seemed to glide as they walked.
Wholeness: Those who swung their arms wildly while walking were selected over those who moved from their center, with coordination and balance.Physical impairments may prevent some people from projecting confidence. If they fail, victims must decide whether or not defensive action is necessary and appropriate. Carrying a concealed firearm can level the playing field, but retrieving it may not always be possible. Introducing a firearm into a volatile situation isn’t always the best response. That determination is dictated by the totality of the circumstances. Two studies may provide helpful insight when making that decision. (Source)
Learning how to fight is your last lifeline of protection. Learning escape and evasion tactics, self-defense strategies like Krav Maga or even learning to use everyday objects to protect yourself can enhance survival. The most important aspect to learn is not to hesitate when confronted. Again, this skill set takes time to master but may save your life.
Disasters do not just happen to other people – they can happen to you. When you are prepared for a particular scenario, then you already have tools in place for when you need them the most. While many feel that preparedness is an enormous endeavor, when you break it down into organized lists, it’s not so daunting. Keep prepping and keep an eye out for our next preparedness guide.
Remember to fall back on your list of lists to ensure that you are purchasing the needed items for the disaster you are preparing for. Have a well rounded short-term supply to compliment your long term food items. Store your emergency supplies in an easy to access part of your home where natural elements such as sunlight and moisture are not an issue.
As well, keep in mind that once you get your preps, you will need to maintain them to ensure your emergency items are ready to go. Your gear can best be maintained according to a maintenance schedule and you can get a start on it now. Some preppers do it twice a year when Daylight Savings Time hits. But it’s more than giving it a glance and it doesn’t just mean cleaning it. It also means inspecting it for serviceability and function. It means making sure that it’s well organized and that you can pick it up at a moment’s notice. You can’t do that unless it’s ready.
Course Discussion
We all have a way to help others prepare. New preppers, if you have questions, leave them in the comment section and as a community, we can help to answer them. You’re not in this alone. I know this information provided is a lot to take in, just pace yourself, have fun with it, and we are all here for you if you need it.
We’re giving away The Prepper’s Blueprint – widely popular and highly rated preparedness manual and a 72-hour kit at the end of this week to a lucky winner.
All you have to do is sign up for our newsletter and leave a comment in one of our weekly Crash Course guides about what you feel the most important aspect of being prepared is in the bottom of the article. Good luck everyone!
Additional Reading:
Essential Prepping Calculators
20 Preparedness Articles To Help You Get Prepped
The Prepper’s Blueprint: A Must-Have Preparedness Manual
20 Additional Preps You Want in the Car for Urban Survival
Tess Pennington is the author of The Prepper’s Blueprint, a comprehensive guide that uses real-life scenarios to help you prepare for any disaster. Because a crisis rarely stops with a triggering event the aftermath can spiral, having the capacity to cripple our normal ways of life. The well-rounded, multi-layered approach outlined in the Blueprint helps you make sense of a wide array of preparedness concepts through easily digestible action items and supply lists.
Tess is also the author of the highly rated Prepper’s Cookbook, which helps you to create a plan for stocking, organizing and maintaining a proper emergency food supply and includes over 300 recipes for nutritious, delicious, life-saving meals.
Visit her web site at ReadyNutrition.com for an extensive compilation of free information on preparedness, homesteading, and healthy living.
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Excellent article, WELL DONE!
thank you.
Wilson,
I agree!
Tess, Another outstanding article!
Louisiana Eagle
Great article TESS,
To anyone new, just checking out the site, please, use the search function to find a long term history of great information in the archives.
Some of us commenting here have been prepping for a very long time, and make many jokes. What is ongoing in Houston, and happening in Florida is no joke. Please use the search function to access years of information, much from us jokesters.
Keep yourselves and your family safe in the current storm. Learn all you can. When a huuricane hit my home, my family, I learned a lot here. I can’t emphasize enough to glean every scrap of info you can get. I had prepped for years. If you are younger and this is your first rodeo, learn all you can and use it.
Let us know in future weeks what worked. Not just us, but future Preppers.
Excellent article Tess!
Thank you!
KY Mom
HAVE A GOOD PLAN. Having all this stuff and the skills is great but what if you somehow are compromised and have to go mobile? Do/have you planned for that? Get into shape. Learn about the edible vegetation in your AO. Learn how to purify water without the fancy shmancy equipment. Stash fishing equipment somewhere or plan on how to acquire some if you have to. etc etc etc. Not sayin you’re gonna have to but who says you won’t?
Stay quiet Be smart
Jacknife, agree on all points and health, fitness and mindset as well
Central Caribbean reporting in….lost a dozen banana trees from 50+ mph gusts, otherwise zero damage.
Power out 72 hours, back on yesterday for a few hours, off again last night and still off.
Internet was down 24 hours now back up.
COMMUNICATIONS QUESTION
Looking for best reasonable priced shortwave radio receiver. Have spent hours reading reviews on Sangean, Kaito, etc.
Sangean looks like the one- ATS405 at $75., but it doesn’t pick up aircraft comms.
How important would that be?
Information from anywhere available is the one thing I need to add to our preps. We have a basic Eton weather/NOAA/marine radio but I want to reach out further.
What’s your opinion on basic shortwaves?
Besides BaoFeng? I’ll pass on those.
Great to hear you are fine. This hurricane has killed countless. This really is not a joke.
The banana trees will grow back or can be replaced.
Please let us know what worked, and what didn’t.
Florida did amazingly well. I suspect upgraded building requirements helped.
Interesting, one mode of failures for houses is the garage doors failing and blowing not in, and the roof lifting from the incoming air pressure. I showed the wife tonight how a simple garage door reinforcing part called a u-brace was now selling on Amazon for $240.00. This is a part I bought and installed on my garage doors and it sold for about $19.00/ea.
Freaking creepy price gouging in a disaster. FU Google.
Let me add a minor detail.
I was in the caribian after a major hurricane, hotels were damaged big time and screwed. They had damage that took years to fix. I did rent a motocycle. The renter thought I’d never come back? Meanwhile my wife and I were having a blast. We saw the whole island. I paid extra for a chain and lock for the bike lock.
My most significant memory was chaining my motorcycle to a street light. I leaned on the light and it all but fell down. Turns out a foundation in the Carribian is about 6 inches deep in the sand.
In a conversation with a Carribian Native who said the hurricane was heading north, I tried to explain how severe building requirements were. After seeing the light pole, I knew he coudn’t grasp the concept of a foundation that went four feet into the ground to get below the frostline.
I have learned that my imagined worst case scenario could, and in fact has been, exceeded at least once in my life. Still, having prepared for something similar helped greatly to mitigate the damage.
L.T.
TL;DR.
Give me a break. If any new prepper read that article the only thing that would happen is nothing. It went on and on and on and on and on and on.
Harvey, Irma unusual?
“It’s the first time on record two hurricanes with winds of 150 mph or higher have been recorded in the Atlantic, said Colorado State University hurricane researcher Dr. Phil Klotzbach, although not the first time the basin has produced two Cat 4 storms at once. “There’s been years where we’ve had three,” said hurricane center spokesman Dennis Feltgen. “Unusual, but not a record.” See Miami Herald, Models starting to agree: South Florida is going to get a direct hit from Irma
For Harvey, per Dr. Roy Spencer – who did his PhD on hurricanes – said since 1870, just over 20 hurricanes have hit TX. Half of hurricanes hitting TX were when water was COOLER than normal, half when warmer than normal. Harvey rain was due to it stalling due to steering currents weakening, not unusual Al Gore warming.
Irma record? Actually, the 1935 Labour Day hurricane that hit the Keys had lowest barometric pressure ever recorded, with 185 MPH wind estimated when it hit the Keys, about what Irma has. Is weather getting worse? There “is no long term change meteorologically” says Spencer. Harvey rain was due to it stalling due to steering currents weakening.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6n6afpnIS4g&feature=em-subs_digest (~20 min.)
In the previous 40 some years, there have been FOUR Cat. 4 hurricanes to make landfall. The previous 40 some odd years, before any of Al Gore’s major warming got underway – there were FOURTEEN.
Yuppi apt dweller in the city list. Whole hell of alot more to it . What ya gonna do with your poop? How about haveing guns ammo that enables you to fire through doors walls cus the desperate intruders arnt gonna knock politely. And dont be afraid to drink the water in the toilet tank …my suggestion is buy beer and ammo and pick up a couple extra cartons of cigs and keep them fresh in the freezer
It takes a while but you can heat up a can of food with a candle. Just saying intuition and cleverness is what will depict who will survive along with balls to do what you need to do.
Yes you can if you are sheltered from the wind (indoors). Best if you can hit some yard sales and find a used charcoal grill that hasn’t set outdoors and got holes in the bottom. Keep some bags of charcoal handy(and dry). I’ve used truck rims with charcoal(outside) to make char cloth and charred punkwood for fire starter and with a grate you could cook a small meal or boil water over a truck rim containing charcoal. Note: Truck rim was placed on driveway stone to allow air to flow up from bottom (non combustible)
You really don’t need a lot of charcoal if you go around and start picking up all the sticks and twigs on your land, or cut some down. Store in the cellar or barn or somewhere. I use a cheap grill outside cuz i’m afraid of propane and can’t afford it. I just fill it with lots of sticks and then add a FEW charcoal on top, use some lighter fluid and it works great.
God soldier, or in a Weber dome BBQ with the lid on if the sun is out, I do this often to thaw frozen items with zero energy use.
This is one if the better prepper type articles I have seen in a long while. Very detailed and covers many bases. But as always nearly all prepper types more or less by-pass and not even mention much about the three most important items of all ! Your health, fitness and mindset. The health and fitness are the easiest to acquire. The mindset is really about skills and confidence gained from training and your health and fitness ! All three are 100% interconnected and none have any substitute or replacement.
The reason this is all overlooked and not really mentioned as it should be, is because of the fact that 73+% of Americans are fat or obese and are NOT fit or healthy , quite the opposite. So it is NOT discussed in detail because that would theoretically offend 73% of Americans and run contrary to the prepper sites internet marketing methods. So they barely even go there for fear of losing potential customers. It is well past obvious this is the simple truth and it all becomes an echo chamber of self reinforcement and not much changes really ? I am one of just a very few who tell the simple truth about all of it and teach it as well. The only thing that matters is results, all else is pure junk and hype ! I have in fact taken it all to much higher levels and it is not difficult to accomplish. It is all about how you think and then take action, simple as that. As long as people deliberately stay in the echo chamber , they are at a great disadvantage !
In a real melt down of any type, the fit, healthy, strong and well trained out will be the only survivors by and large because somebody will simply come along and take all the preppers shit ! Those attributes and understanding are what give a person the correct mind set along with their own personal skills and training.
Well, i shouldn’t tell ya all this, but i will if it will help someone who lives in the city – when they need to “poop” and the toilet does not work anymore. A simple solution is at hand. Many yrs ago when i lived in the city the water company turned off my water cuz i didn’t have the money to pay the $400 bill. It was in a hot summer. I went almost 3 months without running water. I survived. I would get jugs of water from a friends house, pee in the tub and rinse it out. I had to poop on newspaper like a dog, rolled it up, put in small plastic bag and then in trash. Of course if there is no more trash pick up in the city you could dig a deep hole and bury the paper and all, but not plastic as will not degrade. I don’t know where you would get water from in the city, but i do know how ya can poop!
OMG, that is a hellova experience. For three months without water!? Wow!!!
Hopefully, now you live far away from Yellowstone, because that one is being “primed” to pop. I am not buying the story where the “scientists” are drilling deep holes to relieve its pressure.
The hills of Maine and Vermont are the safest.
I hate to tell you Bob, but if Yellowstone goes off it may very well be an E.L.E. for most, if not all of mankind, so nowhere on this planet will be “safe” from it’s effects.
Very good article. On multi tools, check out “Camping Survival” as they have ‘used’ Gerber and Leatherman multi-tools that are still in good to excellent condition and are usually half price of new with free shipping. I’ve bought several from them and have yet to be disappointed. They have great service and are good to work with. jm2cw.
POP,
Good site with great prices!
I paid twice the price for the Gerber
600 for my son-in law and Grandson
when I bought them each a multi
tool for Christmas a few years back.
I’m really pissed about the price on the
Dak canned Ham, I paid double that. At
least at the time I only bought a few.
I’m seeing that gerber makes a historically better multi tool.
A bit late for this storm, but still valid.
You should already have this stuff if you do not take note what has happened in Texas and Florida.
WAKE UP MORE TO COME.
2018,2018,2018,
Something to consider, how does the hurricaine and fires and hurricaine etc affect you?
Yea, your AO is nowhere near this stuff,,, but whats happening to the JIT delivery system? What is happening to supply cost? Availability?
How does it affect me,eh,50 cents or so at moment higher gas prices,have a smug better them then me attitude and then give to a few decent charities(short money as work slow at moment,but,the smalls add up!),really do not personally know any one affected excepting one warehouse owner and he lives in N.H.just owns some Fl. property,insured ect.,so,at moment no real affect on me,just hope they still have gas for Cajun navy and army when needed,love those folks!
I have an ex boyfriend in the city i sometimes visit. We get along good cept we are total opposites. I always look in his fridge and it is 1/4 full with lots of empty space, and very little food in the cupboards. It scares me. I mention it to him at times that most people only have a wks worth of food in the house like HIM and when the sh*t hits he will die from starvation. He just looks at me with a stupid smirk on his face and doesn’t say a WORD! No wonder i broke up with him! He should say, “yeah, i think you’re right, maybe i should buy more food – what do you suggest?” But no, he doesn’t say anything becuz he thinks i’m crazy and does not believe me! These kind of people really DO deserve what they get!!
Marine,
You are on track. Don’t settle, time is short.
My wife took years to come around, but she is on board now. I wish I could say you had the slack time I did. I suspect not.
My children are having children and I believe they are on board. God has the right person out there for you, find them through faith and prayer. There is no greater force given to men, that includes you. May peace and love be yours.
We live in amazing times, take care on number one.
If not today, then in the future.
God’s blessing on you.
Very good, back to basics!
Many people don’t realize that you can still cook on a gas stove when the power is off. You just use the top burners, not the oven, and you have to light the burners with matches.
Our previous stove was so old, it didn’t even have pilot lights. So the burners and oven had to be lit every time with matches. I learned to light a gas oven when I was a child, as my mother didn’t want to bend down and do it.
You can also use an old out of gas clicker type grill lighter. Just need something that still makes the spark when you click the trigger.
Good article.
The only thing I have to complain about
is that Alaska and Hawaii are not on the risk
map. Perhaps it is because we’d be Black
meaning “all the above” and then some.
Although I’m not sure Alaska gets Tornadoes.
Hawaii certainly does.
Thats because we dont really matter bud
Good reminders Tess thanks!
When the disaster is over and if the insurance industry exists, you need to be able to determine what has been lost and prove that you did have what you claim. Photographing what you own is a good start.
Waiting for asscrackofdisaster to chime in with his 350 item list.
After Irma and Jose, followed by “planned EVENTS”, Florida will be a ghost state for many months,… NOT weeks.
If the nuclear power plants reach the melt-down stage, then it will be over for good!
Most will never see their home again… unfortunately.
Soon to be homeless and jobless, they are about to become the first residents of FEMA camps.
Lets hope not but you do make a good point.
Having worked in the Power Industry, I know that the nuke plants are designed with hurricanes as a probability in those areas. Fukushima was inundated by a tsunami.
‘Canes don’t do tsunamis (while they do cause flooding and storm surges)
Usually they have X ( 30?) days worth of diesel fuel to run aux generators and probably natural gas for g-turbines to do a Black Start and keep the fuel rod pool circ water going.
Nuke plants have been thru hurricanes before – it is part of the plan.
<bb
Something to think about…
After The Storms Are Over: America Can’t Afford To Rebuild
“There’s no meat left on that bone. There isn’t even a bone left. There’s only a debt-ridden mirage of a bone.
If you’re looking to define the country in bumper-sticker terms, that’s it. A debt-ridden mirage. Which can only wait until it’s relieved of its suffering. Irma may well do that…”
“Trump’s plans for an infrastructure fund were never going to be an easy sell in Washington, and every single penny he might have gotten for it would now have to go towards repairing existing roads and bridges, not updating them -necessary as that may be-, let alone new construction.
Towns, cities, states, they’re all maxed out as things are, with hugely underfunded pension obligations and crumbling infrastructure of their own. They’re going to come calling on the feds, but Washington is hitting its debt ceiling. All the numbers are stacked against any serious efforts at rebuilding whatever Harvey and Irma have blown to pieces or drowned.
As for individual Americans, two-thirds of them don’t have enough money to pay for a $500 emergency, let alone to rebuild a home.
Most will have a very hard time lending from banks as well, because A) they’re already neck-deep in debt, and B) because the banks will get whacked too by Harvey and Irma.
For one thing, people won’t pay the mortgage on a home they can’t afford to repair. Companies will go under. You get the picture.”
ht tp://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-09-09/after-storms-are-over-america-cant-afford-rebuild
Direct link…
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-09-09/after-storms-are-over-america-cant-afford-rebuild
KY, or another way to say it would simply be insolvent !
“If you’re looking to define the country in bumper-sticker terms, that’s it. A debt-ridden mirage.”
Not only the fed but almost every single state is insolvent and failing. We do all live in many illusions created for us to control us ! Most Americans simply cannot wrap their head around that simple fact, so they are stuck in the illusions as victims of sorts, playing the game by the rules of their controllers. That of course is house rules and no different than Las Vegas, fixed.
I have a friend in Cape Coral. I told him 2 days ago that the hurricane might go on the west side of Florida. He said no it won’t. He didn’t prep. He never has anything for food in his house. Well, you guessed it. The hurricane is going to wipe him out. He kept telling me that his house is sturdy and he’ll survive the storm. I kept telling him that surviving the storm is only half the story. Now he’ll have to survive the aftermath. No food, water, electric. No way out. No gas. No stores open. Might not be any stores left standing. For a month. Or more. Sheesh.
If Irma runs over WWTI and tosses his lying worthless ass into the gulf, we can rename “irma” to Eppe.
Just turned on my asscrack detector. DING DING DING. It’s going off. See ya, sniper.
You guys need to stop blaming wwti for eppe dying. Admittedly, wwti is an asshole and he gave eppe a hard time, like he does braveheart and durrango Kidd, and me a couple times too, but blaming him for eppe dying is asinine. So now wwti (CSS) is in the middle of this storm, you wish death on him? Get a grip asshole. You don’t even have enough balls to show yourself. If you’re that fucking thin skinned and delusional, what are you gonna do when you get confronted with a real situation. For all of you out there, you can come on here and spout your skills and intentions but when the shit hits the fan, can you do what you claim? Give me a fuckin break
The a-hole you are talking about is buttcrackofdoom aka asscrack of disaster.
Snipey little prick what he is. Mind your own business, Jackass.
Your moniker is not your real name anyways.
I have always found it interesting that most people hide behind a false name/pretense on the net ? Anybody can easily find out my name and I make zero attempt to hide it and never have or will. I have no valid reason to do so. Actually quite the opposite for me. But how many people even realize the net is a double edged sword and is easily used to control the populace ? So how many are in fact actually thinking fr themselves ?
http://www.downtoearththinking.com/our-government-created-google-and-facebook-.html
your both wrong…how do you expect me to “show” who I am since Im anonymous? I liked Eppe and don’t like wwti. Im not a little basement troll. Im fully prepped mentally, skilled, lifestyle and very physically fit as Im considered the top 3% for my age group and top 10% overall. I can back up my opinion and mouth with facts and my fists. So Jackknife, fuck off. Im not blaming wwti for Eppe’s death, I am just voicing my opinion that Id rather of seen Eppe here and wwti drowned.
Later, asscrack. Or asscrack “friend”.
Your literary style betrays you, ACOD.
Whatever tough guy. I don’t like wwti either but many here blame him for eppe dying and you know that. Reread your post and tell me that it doesn’t sound like you were. Anyone that sits behind their screen and brags about how they’ll use their fists will only do that. You’re a blow hard. But don’t underestimate this old man cause if your little bitch ass whoops mine, I guarantee you ain’t gonna wanna do it again. I’m not gonna give you any percentages boy, but I’m in pretty good shape myself and I happen to know a little So piss off punk. Doesn’t your boyfriend need his salad tossed?
Just tell me where you are, if you have the nuts. I’ll meet you in the general area you tell me, “boy.” Then we’ll see about the keyboard shit. Go ahead. Tell me where to meet ya, Jerk-knife.
Ok. 23rd and Charles street in Baltimore. A couple miles north of the stadium. It’s directly behind a grocery store. Let me know when is good for you, I have to travel to get their. Boy
Jerk knife. Damn boy that’s clever. How long does it take someone with a 47 point iq to come up with that? Funny too, like you givin your tranny man a reach around.
let me clear this up for y’all. many of the older members here got together, thanks to eppe, and we talk to eachother once in a while. i talked to eppe quite a few times, and toward the last year or so, it seemed like all we ever talked about was wwti. he attacked him relentlessly, with no reason, it seemed to us…it was OBVIOUSLY very stressful to him, and i really DO believe it was enough to bring on that heart attack that KILLED him….i’ve never really elaborated this much, because i didn’t want to give wwti the satisfaction of knowing he caused the death of one of his targets….he showed little, if ANY remorse….he’s a dispicable son of a bitch, if you ask me….and yuh didn’t.
BCOD. Wwti is a dispicable sonofabitch, he did harass eppe for no reason, as he does others. Unprovoked. Including me. And I understand you were friends, I’m sorry you lost your friend. Having said that, I’m pretty good at understanding how people think, and why. I learned much of this throughout life, some from psyops training and college psyche courses. And maybe that’s why I can handle people well. I do not let people control my emotions or thinking. I am not intimidated by “well” educated people, or wealthy people or muscle headed bullies because at the end of the day, haven’t we all woke up, took a dump, showered and got dressed? If you quietly watch someone for a few minutes, body language, facial expressions, inflections in the tone of their voice, you can get a pretty good idea of what they’re about. But when you come here, you read what someone wants you to think. If you read enough comments from one person, you can get the same picture. You can usually detect bullshit as well. Wwti is an angry miserable man because he’s lonely. And he treats who he perceives as weak or a threat like he has been treated, not by his parents, but by women. If he’s as well off as he claims, then why can’t he keep a woman? There are plenty of gold diggers out there who will put up with someone like him if they’re getting the money. It’s because he’s a control freak and an ass. That’s why he’s alone. My biggest problem in this is that I think others can see what I see. That’s the main reason I think it’s wrong to blame him for eppe dying. I think eppe should’ve never allowed a prick like him to dig in that far. Nobody should. Maybe I’m wrong but I’d like to think eppe was a little tougher than that. Sorry for the novel but your post struck me. As for you, I think you’re a pretty good guy who has good stuff to say. Please don’t ever lose that. I know, because this article is buried deep, no one except you will see my reply. Let’s keep this between us. Thanks and keep driving on.
Anonymous and Knife , bottom line is this, we are all responsible for our own merits and demerits as the case may be. So nobody is responsible for anybody elses heart attack, only the person who allowed themselves to get so unhealthy in the first place ! Glad I was not part of any of this debate as it proves how small minded and personally dishonest and weak many prepper types are. Time to rethink a lot of shit I imagine and pay attention to this guy! He is way ahead of all of you !
https://youtu.be/c_qoYTYCSG8
Health and well being is when everything is working well and balanced. sickness or unhealthy is exactly the opposite ! Simple stuff, isn’t it ?
http://www.downtoearththinking.com/fitness-over-60-a-mindset-of-health.html
http://www.downtoearththinking.com/health-a-simple-approach-to-overall-well-being-.html
I will be 70 on my next birthday and I can outperform most people here physically in any task or challenge rather easily ? Maybe all of you ? That is proof that I am doing something quite right and enjoying it all daily !
Excellent article Tess:
I would add one thing. Washing clothes can be a problem. Storing plenty of laundry soap is a good precaution. Having buckets or metal washer pails which can be purchased on line or at Home Depot are important during an emergency. You can set up a clothes line for a few dollars from Home Depot or better yet purchase an out door drying item that has multiple lines and folds down when not in use. These are made in America and can be found on line.
Also for personal hygiene, you may need some things like a water basin and items like extra wash cloths, soaps, hydrogen peroxide, witch hazel, etc. Extra toothpaste, dental floss, tooth picks, and deodorant are items you should always have stocked up. A year’s supply is what I consider prudent.
Imagine just losing a job. Here you are about to go for an interview. You are broke and out of toothpaste, mouthwash, or deodorant! Oops, there’s no toilet paper either !!! And your car is on empty!!
That is a SHTF moment you don’t need, and one easily avoided.
_
Nearly everything you mentioned is not a real necessity but a convenience item. Obvious you have never spent any time in the bush without a shower for extended period or clean clothes. You need to rethink a bunch of stuff, but most here are exactly the same. There is a huge difference between comfort/convenience and necessity in a real life emergency type battle scenario or other catastrophe scenario for ones life. These floods from the hurricanes are nearly 100% inconvenience actually. The only people who are really threatened are the old, infirmed or crippled and young children and of course the stupid who simply do not THINK ! Everybody else will be fine even though uncomfortable and very inconvenient with lots of property damage. Preppers have a huge tendency to over react while at the same time not even come close to actually being really fully prepared for much of anything ? a sort of double whammy of dumbness in the echo chamber.
You’re absolutely right
Jacknife, the difference of opinions and skill sets is quite interesting and revealing, Hey ?
I see very few people here that would actually stand and fight for anything and a lot of talk ! But that is the norm in USA today. By and large the prepper phenom is a marketing thing and I am the only person talking about it in truth.
I fully agree it is important and necessary, but it has gone the same way as FaceBook, phony and all about its own marketing paradigms. as I call it an echo chamber of self reinforcement. There are some folks that get it, but they are not the majority, just like in politics and other matters where media and advertising is involved. Lots of hype and little actual valid info or outcomes from effort.
DTE, you probably are the only one talking about it but I’m right there with you in spirit. I don’t say a whole lot on this board, but many seem to live here. I think shtf is gonna be much like total pandemonium and chaos and life will be of constant life and death decisions. Not trying to sound dark or negative but it’s what I believe. Too many here seem to be in a competition of sorts. Who has the best prep list or latest this or that, the biggest arsenal of weapons or what they’re gonna do to other people. They come here bragging but I’m thinking they have no idea what they’re in for.
Stay quiet Be smart
Knife agree on every point. Many here come to my site and realize I am not being negative, just telling the truth of many matters from a perspective of hands on life experiences. Some even realize I am helping them in the highest possible ways ! Everything worth while is about how we think and then act on it. The rest is just talk and neurotic bullshit ! In the end all that really matters is results, all else is a waste of time and effort. My thing is good on everybody even if some do piss me off occasionally. I am a big boy and see the greater picture just as you and others do.
Far better to smile and enjoy ones health, well being and fitness daily than fret on small minded shit. One of the things I teach people is how to stay focused and make your own accomplishments and let go of all the other junk !
B from CA – go away, boy. no one cares about your babbling.
Hopefully, everyone who hasn’t will now prep and everyone who has will re-evaluate preps. We are in S. FL.. we had to buy nothing. Waited in zero lines. Didn’t have to purchase even one solitary thing. We already had everything we needed. Anything we purchased was well before any rush and only for our greater comfort. I will tell you solemnly.. I trust in God, not preps.. but friends, it is really nice beyond description when faced with very real threats to not be lacking in anything needed. Please consider this.
oUCH,
You and your family are in our thoughts and prayers. There is something to be said about prepping ahead of time. Let us know how everything works out. God bless and keep you in the hollow of His hands.
Louisiana Eagle
oUCH, an excellent example of thinking !
I like the articles on this website! My preparedness plan has 5 Levels of readiness:
Level 1: Local, first responders, 3 days (water).
Level 2: State, Governor declares disaster, up to 3 weeks (food).
Level 3: Regional, multiple state governors declaring disaster, up to 3 months.
Level 4: National, nation-wide emergency/impact by event, up to 1 year.
Level 5: International, multiple nations declaring disaster, 2+ years.
I learned this at http://www.preparednessprogram.com
Harvey was rated a Level 3 Disruptive Event as Texas is bigger than most states and has regional infrastructure (refineries, ports). IRMA is a Level 5 Event since multiple-nations have declared emergencies and it will take 2+ years for some of these nations to recover. If Irma intensity increases back to Cat 5 before hitting Florida, people will need storm shelters capable of handling an F3 Tornado to survive. Wooden frame homes will not survive the kinetic debris or wind load from F3 winds.
Anybody with half a brain would have gathered all their actual important items loaded up their truck and trailer and simply driven north and west and removed themselves from any real danger as soon as it was known this could get to cat 5 in Florida, which was days of advance warning. I would have considered it at cat 4 in a place like Florida with ocean on both sides of the land mass and be ready to bail out ahead of the crowd. Not exactly rocket science.
In Florida the hurricane went West, so that was the wrong answer.
In Florida there are only two roads north on the East side, that is I-95 and US-1. If those are bumper to bumper as they were, you’re screwed.
Like I said if you left ahead of the crowd it would not be bumper to bumper and you can still go north and westerly once you get far enough north. So yes it was a very good answer. It is just water and nit radiation. I have been in both.
Florida vacations are gonna cost more in the future.
Good article, but preparing has a lot to do with your location. I have been all over the country and found a place without hurricanes, without earthquakes, without floods, without devastating heat, with no threat of nuclear power plants, no arsenal target for foreign attacks, without volcanos, with a sparse population, that has an abundant supply of natural fuel for heating, natural wild food, plenty of fresh water, good soil for gardening, and natural building materials. That to me is the Number one prepping ingredient to have, the rest follows like in the article.