Business economists in the United States are continuing to lose faith in the “booming” economy. Many are saying that there will be a sharp slowdown in economic activity in the last few months of this year and into next year.
The latest survey by a panel of 51 forecasters with the National Association for Business Economics shows they expect growth, as measured by the gross domestic product, to slow to 2.3% this year from 2.9% in 2018. The new forecast marks a downgrade from the 2.6% estimate for 2019 economic growth that the NABE panel had made in June. As for the upcoming year 2020, the forecasters expect GDP growth to fall to 1.8%. They see little likelihood of a recession over the next 12 months but expect the risk to increase by late next year, according to a report done on this survey by ABC News.
Fifty-three percent of the panelists identified the trade war as the biggest risk to the economy, while 12% said that they think weaker global growth is the biggest threat.
Gregory Daco, the chief U.S. economist at Oxford Economics, said the forecasting panel has gradually turned more pessimistic over the summer, with 80% of the economists now saying the risks are pointed to the downside. “The rise in protectionism, pervasive trade policy uncertainty, and slower global growth are considered key downside risks,” Daco said.
The forecasters estimate just a 7% likelihood of a recession starting this year, a 24% likelihood by mid-2020 and 47% by the end of 2020. They foresee a 69% chance of a recession beginning by mid-2021. –ABC News
The bad news is that a recession is likely in the next year or so, but the good news is that one year is a long time to prepare. There is little, if anything, you can do on your own to stop any kind of global economic meltdown. But you can get yourself prepared for what’s coming. Preparing for an economic collapse can take a long time, but it looks like you will have that. Because no one knows exactly when it will all come crashing down, it’s important to prepare now, while you still can.
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