When we hear about the middle east, it’s usually a quick news story about tensions with Iran and Israel, but the situation is much more complicated. Political commentator Hamid Ghoriafi gives us an expanded view of the complex political state of the Middle East and says that 2010 will witness the most destructive wars in modern history.

Middle East analysts predict that the year 2010 could make the past nine years look laughable considering the kinds and ferocity of tragedies that might hit the region that has been a violent battlefield for four crushing wars.

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In 2010, weapons of mass destruction that were developed after the unprecedented Iraq war, will probably determine the fate of at least two Middle East countries and that of a mini-state: Iran and its nuclear program, Lebanon and Hezbollah, and the Gaza Palestinian Strip mini-state. It is expected that events will unfold in a dramatic way that could be much more catastrophic and destructive than all the previous wars that hit the region throughout the past 50 years. Analysts assume that these coming wars will remove all obstacles that US President Barack Obama is presently facing in his endeavor to solve the Arab – Israeli conflict which has been raging for the last 61 years. In the midst of all these dramatic foreseen events, Syria and Lebanon will have no other option but to the sign a peace treaty in compliance with Israel’s terms.

After containing the major Middle East conflicts, it is expected that the mighty Western countries will seriously focus their military interventions to resolve and end conflicts in three fragile countries, Afghanistan, Sudan and Somalia, in a bid to put an end to the problems that these three unstable countries are inflicting on their neighboring countries and on global peace and order.

Whether we have the tension wire finally snap between Israel/Iran or one of the extremist factions around Saudi Arabia or Yemen detonates a pipeline, or we have another conflict like Lebanon/Israel, we could be in for some nasty stuff.

A blow-up out there could easily push oil even higher than the $150 per barrel we saw in 2008,  especially if we’re talking about military conflict around the Strait of Hormuz. Of course, if it got to that point, then it is likely the US would be directly involved, as well, and that could be disastrous.

I am not sure how likely of a scenario it is, but I have read opinions that suggest Iran might invade American forces on Iraq’s western border if they believe any Israeli attack involved American support, but would the Iranians really attempt to engage American soldiers? This could be a serious war. The probabilities I am not sure of, but the possibility is certainly there – if that’s what the powers that be want, they could easily make it happen.

Oil pipeline disruption could also be a possibility, probably more likely than a direct US/Iran conflict, and I suspect it could have a serious impact on oil prices, even if it is shear speculation and panic driven.

$150+ per barrel would put gas near $4 again, and consumers would flip – that would probably have a serious psychological (and monetary) impact on the average American getting hit by the recession and could really detonate the whole damn thing (again…)!

Hat tip Tom of the North of Outside the (Cardboard) Box