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Mathematician and Author Says There is A 50% Chance Humans DIE OFF Within 760 Years

Mac Slavo
July 8th, 2019
SHTFplan.com
Comments (31) Read by 1,144 people

The author of “The Doomsday Calculation” estimates that there is a 50 percent chance the human race will die off within the next 760 years. In the book, author William Poundstone applies the mathematical approach of Princeton University astrophysicist J. Richard Gott III to estimate when humans will officially die off.

According to The Daily Mail, this mathematical method is said to work to predict the likely length of existence of anything of an uncertain duration so long as it’s being encountered at a random point in time. “Obviously, if you have any specific information affecting the life span of, say, the human race, or a class of stars, you can estimate its life span more realistically,” Gott told the New York Times in 1993. “But this statistical method allows you to make at least a rough estimate of a life span without knowing anything more than how long something has existed,” he added.

It’s a little surprising humanity isn’t predicted to end sooner with the rate the elite globalists are manipulating everything.

 In an article published byVox, Poundstone explained the Copernican method he used to arrive at his prediction. The Copernican principle came from Copernicus, the great Renaissance astronomer, who declared Earth was not the center of the universe.

“Demographers have estimated the total number of people who ever lived at about 100 billion. That means that about 100 billion people were born before me,” Poundstone said. “Currently, about 130 million people are born each year. At that rate, it would take only about 760 years for another 100 billion more people to be born.  That’s the basis of the claim that there’s a 50 percent chance that humans will become extinct within about 760 years. The flip side of the claim is there’s also a 50 percent chance we’ll survive past 760 years, possibly long past that.”

After graduating from Harvard with a physics degree, Gott used this method to predict the demolition of the Berlin Wall. He estimated that there was a 50 percent chance the wall would come down no later than 24 years from that day, but that it would stand for at least two and two-thirds years more. The demolition of the wall officially began on June 13, 1990, roughly 21 years later, reported The Daily Mail. 

Poundstone wrote: “[Gott] reasoned that this prediction had a 50 percent chance of being right. You may feel that 50 percent is too wishy-washy and Gott just got lucky. No problem: The method can supply predictions with any degree of confidence you choose. To achieve 95 percent confidence, you’d make a diagram with the shaded region covering the middle 95 percent of the bar. The prediction range would be wider (from 1/39 to 39 times the past duration). Had Gott used this formulation, his prediction for the wall’s ceasing to exist would have been 0.21 to 312 years after his visit. This is less impressive, given the extremely wide range — but it would have been correct, too.”

Using his own method in 1993, Gott estimated the end of humanity with a 95% probability of accuracy. He wrote about it in a scientific journal called Nature. “Making only the assumption that you are a random intelligent observer, limits for the total longevity of our species of 0.2 million to 8 million years can be derived at the 95 [percent] confidence level,” Gott said, in the abstract for the article.

But here’s where things get really interesting: Bayes’ theorem can also be used to lay odds on the existence of extraterrestrial intelligence; on whether we live in a Matrix-like counterfeit of reality; on the “many worlds” interpretation of quantum theory being correct; and on the biggest question of all: how long will humanity survive? –The Doomsday Calculation, book description

 

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Author: Mac Slavo
Views: Read by 1,144 people
Date: July 8th, 2019
Website: www.SHTFplan.com

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31 Comments...

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  1. There is a 100% chance everyone on the plant is dead in 120 years says:

    There is a 100% chance everyone on the plant is dead in 120 years

  2. Frank Thoughts says:

    Human evolution and civilisation is just a mathematical formula. And you need the right number of high IQ people and wisdom (older people) to get increases in living standards.

    The problem humanity has now is this: the number of low IQ and young people is going exponential in the least civilised parts of the world, while the number of high IQ people is shrinking.

    Without enough older people and without increasing high IQ people, humanity will lose its ability to adapt to the planet’s ups and downs. We see this in Africa especially.

    Benin was not the first country to get to the moon for a reason.

    The countries that dominate the planet do so because they are collections of the smartest people. But we are now importing the dumbest people from the dumbest places, mixing them with our inherited Nazi technology and science and hoping it will work out well in the end. I don’t think so!

    • Stuart says:

      Don’t you know that be racist Frank?
      (Which, of course, doesn’t mean it’s not true.)
      That inability to observe the truth publicly is our doom. You can’t fix what you can’t discuss.

      • Genius says:

        760 years? More like 76 years in my math. Oh the humanity lol.

      • Frank Thoughts says:

        So true!

        Just look at the evidence: what happens when white man world tech gets in the hands of the darker ones? An AK 47 in the hands of an African 12 year old? First thing they want to do is kill the next tribe.

        Or smartphones in the hands of inner city knee grows? First thing they do is set up a gang and start dealing drugs and killing each other. Do the same with the Chinese and they launch satellites and put a rover on the moon. Different strokes, different folks.

        But the problem for humanity is the darker populations are growing exponentially, so exponential explosion in gangs, street violence, unwed mothers, obese, low IQ women who even their own community would not marry.

    • Anonymous says:

      Evolution is a continuing process of our consciousness and the Avatar in which we reside. The Avatar may go extinct but our consciousness is never ending!

  3. grandee says:

    I dunno…

    somehow I doubt it.

  4. Stuart says:

    760 years eh?
    NOW I’m worried!
    Glad I’m a Christian 🙂

    • Anonymous says:

      You’re in for rude awakening!

      • Not really.

        Either Stuarts correct in his belief and will enjoy an eternity of Gods grace, or he’s not in which case he will return to dust and never know the difference.

        In your case, you will enjoy an eternity in the pits of hell, or you will return to dust and never know the difference.

        basically in one case, Christians are mislead and wrong and live a good moral lives which contribute to the wellbeing of all of us on this earth and end up dead and buried like all of the rest of us with no eternal reward beyond the improvements they made by being good people in this world.

        In the second case, Christians are right, live good moral lives contributing to the wellbeing of all of on this earth, get the eternal reqard, and the nonbelievers get an eternity of torment.

        Given one of those outcomes is controllable, why not hedge your bet and live a good moral, christian life? Couldn’t hurt, right?

  5. Seminole Wind says:

    I thought AOC said we would all be dead in 12 years, Who knew? (sarcasm)

  6. Mr. Natural says:

    I predict with 100% certainty that everyone living today will be dead in 760 years.

    • Seminole Wind says:

      Wow! You are a prophet!

      It’s water…everyone who drinks it will die someday. Drink mo beer!

    • Bilge Pump McCoy says:

      Not necessarily. I plan on having the contents of my little pea brain transferred to a computer chip in a robot. Then I plan to be launched into space where I will tour other planets for a few million years. I will then return to Earth for a lube job, some computer upgrades, and a new porn collection, before heading back into deep space to find other planets and boldly go where no other robot has gone before.

  7. Stuart says:

    All joking aside, I’ve read medical journals in which the prediction was made that, baring violent physical trauma, in 20 years there will be no medical reason for people to die. With the perfection of stem cell technology we will be able to grow you a new… anything – and with your own DNA so there are no rejection issues. I have trouble seeing the replication of the vascular system but as far as organs go, I believe this is correct.
    Of course this therapy will be approved the day after I die.

    • Anonymous says:

      It’ll be approved about the same time male birth control pills are, which is to say never. Like… here’s the thing FDA… here’s what’s funny… so… someone’s going to DIE… as in… die… as in “resulting in death”. BUT! The procedure to save them is “too dangerous and not FDA approved”… um. More dangerous than, say, DEATH?

      Logic might be nice…

      Come on hurry it up. Daddy needs a new set of lungs.

    • Sorry, longevity is just for the rich.
      Do you honestly think they would let the peons live forever? would they offset the population growth of 0 death rate by mandating sterility in the worker drones?

      Huxleys Brave New World was 10x more disturbing than 1984 ever could have been

  8. Horse says:

    how about a date we’ll finally be rid of that zombie soros ?//

  9. reper sleepr says:

    Holy crap, another soothsayer. These are the kind of people that count their crotch hair and call it even.

  10. Kevin2 says:

    It’s optimistic to think mankind will make it that long but regardless it’s long after I’m gone or any of my subsequent generation with any of my DNA above Elizabeth Warren Indian level. To sum up, “I could care less”.

  11. Martus says:

    Georgia guide stones:
    reduce the population to 500000000.

    Once you start a fire do you really believe these shadow government can put it out?

    Bible predicts nuclear bombs going off and a rock coming from space destroying those that destroy the earth.

    Revelation 11:18
    The nations were angry, and your wrath has come. The time has come for judging the dead, and for rewarding your servants the prophets and your people who revere your name, both great and small— and for destroying those who destroy the earth.”

    Zephaniah 1:3
    “I will sweep away both man and beast; I will sweep away the birds in the sky and the fish in the sea— and the idols that cause the wicked to stumble.” “When I destroy all mankind on the face of the earth,” declares the Lord,

    Only the raptured will be saved as God has promised to shorten the time of His people, i.e. removed them before the final destruction.

    Main rapture start of 7 year Tribulation of Israel on April 13 2029.
    Another main rapture at the end of the 7 year tribulation on April 13 2036.

    Time is short, turn to God and be saved or stay and be destroyed!

    • Bill says:

      Is the date something you figured out or were you taught it from another source? Yes, one should always be prepared, but setting dates is cultish, see Matt. 24:36, Matt. 24:42, Matt. 25:13, Mark 13:32 & 33, Acts 1:7, and Zech. 14:7 to name a few scriptures.

  12. I worry a lot more about today, tomorrow, next week, next month and next year than what will happen in 760 years. And 50% chance humans will survive, higher than I would give them.

  13. Montana Guy says:

    Genetic engineering. Today’s Tower of Babel.

  14. We humans should not worry about “tomorrow.” Just do the best you can today to be productive and not be a curse/burden to those around you. In other words, don’t be a bunny wabbit, but don’t be a Gila Monster either!

  15. cranerigger says:

    Mark Twain said “there are 3 types of lies: lies, damn lies, & statistics”. Assumptions have to be made for any statistical analysis. It could be “garbage in – garbage out”.

    A 50% likelihood of any event is little more than a guess. Might happen – might not.

    I could say there is a 50% chance of “humans preferring to mate with dolphins in 500 years” and assumptions could be weighted to yield that result.

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