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Is This What’s Behind Italy’s Outrageous 10% Mortality Rate From COVID-19?

Tyler Durden
April 2nd, 2020
ZeroHedge
Comments (9)

This article was originally published by Tyler Durden at ZeroHedge. 

Italy’s 10% mortality rate has been one of the most disturbing mysteries of the global pandemic. Italy’s mortality rate is roughly 20x Germany’s (a relatively benign 0.4%), and many multiples of China’s (roughly 2.5%) rate.

As scientists puzzle over the reason, researchers have proposed a theory that’s being vetted by peers: Italy’s mild flu season left a larger victim pool for COVID-19. This would suggest that the US, which has struggled with more lethal flu seasons, won’t have as large a pool of potential high-risk victims, especially as testing suggests the virus is more widespread than many had expected.

A report by the Italian Ministry of Health found that elderly people and those with chronic diseases who were spared death by the flu from November through January are “outsize” targets for the more lethal novel coronavirus in March.

But thanks to the fact that there were fewer flu deaths, this “led to an increase in the pool of the most vulnerable,” according to the report, which analyzed data from 19 Italian cities through March 21. In other words, when taken alongside flu season deaths, the bump in deaths would be much beyond what would normally be expected for a developed country struggling with a COVID-19 outbreak.

COVID-19 has been spreading in some parts of Italy since early February. In the northern cities that have borne the brunt of Italy’s more than 12,000 deaths, flu mortality among people age 65 and over was 6% below a baseline from previous years. In the cities of central and southern Italy, flu deaths were 3% off the baseline.

Could this account for enough deaths? It’s possible that it could account for at least some of the discrepancy.

A chart shows how deaths among the 65-plus population during the coronavirus outbreak through March 21 has already reached the levels of the previous two flu seasons and were still below the total flu-season deaths from three seasons ago (the 2016-2017 season).

Mild temperatures were credited with the drop in flu deaths.

Understanding the history of Italy’s flu outbreaks could hold the key to explaining its outlandish mortality rate from COVID-19. Italy has reported more than 105,000 confirmed cases, along with 12,428 deaths.

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Author: Tyler Durden
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Date: April 2nd, 2020
Website: https://www.zerohedge.com

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9 Comments...

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  1. cranerigger says:

    Thank you Tyler Durden. This is one aspect of the Statistical Analysis required before IDIOTS IN GOVT. suspend parts of the Bill of Rights. Of course, I would argue that natural rights may NEVER be suspended. That’s why so many folks have trouble understanding Rand Paul & Ron Paul. Libertarians believe the Constitution & Bill of Rights are more than suggestions.

    The jumping-to-confusions & rushing-to-judgement without adequate information & analysis led to unintended consequences, like crashing the economy. Various levels of govt., with help from fearful medical professionals (like the WHO & CDC) suspended the Bill of Rights. Constitutionally you may NOT do that. I’m an old person and understand I’m in a HIGH RISK GROUP for that reason. That doesn’t mean people in power may suspend the RIGHTS of all American CITIZENS.

    • censored thought zone says:

      you said, “unintended consequences, like crashing the economy”
      Nonsense. That is the Intent. Are you awake?
      This is a PlanDemic cover story psyop.
      ALL your rights STOLEN without a shot being fired.
      You people at shtfplan believe the media? Believe self serving power grabbing politicians, Liars, Thieves, con artist?
      How many times are you going to allow them to play you?

      You have allowed petty politicians and Media Liars to make you cower in Fear. Like psychotic shut ins.

      Neighbors here are still gathering in groups for bar BQ, on down low. The Church is still meeting on down low. And the people are getting pissed about this obvious Hoax Plandemic psyop. We will not be isolated. We will worship. We have not, will not comply or be ruled by Fear. No. Most do NOT believe the media.

      People get sick. People die. That is how it has always been. And the world has never been shut down before, because of a conspiracy by NWO communist politicians and Media hype, to destroy the economic viability of our Nation. TYRANTS.

      Politicians/Media are destroying the country. End the shutdown yourselves. Do not comply. Go back to work.
      This plandemic shutdown is idiotic.

      I have survived horrific circumstances. Been near death more times than can be counted. Never have I quit living life out of Fear. If you get this suposed chicom bug.

      The ChiCom bioweapon exposure would give those exposed to it immunity for the next go round. Is that why your masters want you locked in the house? To weaken your ability to fight the bioweapon they have planned in future? Any qualified immunologist here to dispute this?

  2. Genius says:

    What is this horseshit about a megawar against the drug cartels in mexico? This absolutely REEKS of coverup for something else!

  3. Navy Vet says:

    China’s numbers are crap. We’ll never know what the real numbers are there because THEY LIE ABOUT EVERYTHING. Their CULTURE respects their countrymen that lie to people that don’t look like them and get away with it.

    Then there’s bald faced logic and statistics. How does a country, WHERE THE DISEASE ORIGINATED FROM, during the greatest human migration that occurs every year during Chinese New Year, with 4X the population of the USA, not have a greater number of cases or deaths? Are we to just take it as fact that China, a country whose citizens eat bat soup as a delicacy, have that much more control over health outcomes in the face of the deadliest pandemic since the Spanish Flu of 1918-1919?

    Hey, I’ve got this bridge…

  4. Darth Skippy says:

    Based on the chart, CV remains active in warmer weather, in spite of hopes that it would decline the Spring and Summer. Regardless of human fragility, the virus was unaffected.

  5. Dave42 says:

    I seem to think that the new socialist regime in Italy may have some deeper ties to the Chinese economic arrangement they have.
    With that in mind I wonder how many of the poor souls that have passed actually had the new cold rather than the flu.
    I can not imagine that all of them actually had genetic mapping of the disease prior to being placed together in wards with infected people.
    Pneumonia because of flu affects older people because of nutrition and activity deficits more intensely than younger.
    Once diagnosed with pneumonia needing hospital care the likelihood of cross contamination is great.
    I am pretty sure that Italy would be truthful at the cause of death but not so much in the early part of illness.
    Helpful communist could have helped by informing Italy of how to deal and diagnose in the early point of illness. Just that help would skew thousands of patient outcomes.
    Is it possible that the numbers of cold patient diagnosis where indirectly intentionally escalated by misinforming clinicians ?
    Is it likely that once misdiagnosed the infection that caused death was obtained due to the very social nature of socialist procedures?

  6. Mike Mike says:

    This situation is Not bad.
    Look at the current Fake Narrative, Media/Politician induced panic psyop as “0pportunity” for you.
    Use it as a training 0pportunity for when things do get “Really bad”. Now you know. Get serious about getting ready.
    — Now you know what measures/how far, the Tyrants are willing to go to. Absolute Tyrants.
    — You also know how weak your fellow Amerikkans are. How little it takes for them to accept Tyranny. All it takes is “Media induced Fear” to control them. Fake media reality psyop.

    Media/Politicians have STOLEN your ability to provide for your family. And you sheep just accept the False Fake Narrative.

  7. Stop ChiCom Economic Shutdown says:

    Basic math.
    Basic science.
    Basic critical thinking.
    Basic street smarts.
    Basic skepticism. Trust media? Trust politicians? Why? What is their track record for lying to you? 95%?

    Your average person does not seem to be able to think critically.
    Why not? Do you know? Please explain why?

    Maybe I can think because I never drug. Despise and hate 420. I want a clear head and for those around me to have clarity of thought and the ability to act quickly in emergency.

    We Don’t go to doctors. No flu shots. No vaccines except govt/military forced. Very little processed food. No “fast food”. Few sodas. No city water. No flouride toothpaste. No smart phone. Exercise daily several times. No CNN. No MSNBC. Very Little TelLieVision ProGrammIng.

    Trust Not in preps. Not small arms. Not Trump or any other figure head. I trust only in God.

    God is Great
    Beer is Good
    People are Crazy

    Government has proven to be Tyrant.
    Arresting pastors for giving church service.

  8. good1 says:

    good point bro! I know what you mean.

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